Part 1 of 3
GLOSSARY
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread DVOA from
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019 Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears
Cowboys ATS: 7-5-0
Bears ATS: 3-9-0
Projected Team Totals: Cowboys 22.75 Bears 19.75
Cowboys
Opp (CHI) Pass DVOA: #8
Opp (CHI) Run DVOA: #12
Injuries to Watch DEF (CHI): CB Prince Amukamara (D) LB Danny Trevathan (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): RB Tony Pollard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Amari Cooper (20%) Michael Gallup (20%) Randall Cobb (16%) Jason Witten (16%) Ezekiel Elliot (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Ezekiel Elliott (88%, 19, 10) Tony Pollard (14%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown Dallas was thoroughly embarrassed at home on Turkey day by an increasingly playoff bound BUF squad. That feels odd to say because before last year, BUF had gone 17 years without making the playoffs, the longest drought in professional sports. I digress,
Dak Prescott played decently well against a tough BUF secondary, but ultimately turnovers and missed field goals killed DAL is the end. DAL draws another tough matchup, but the CHI defense isn’t as ferocious as it once was earlier in the season. It appears that similar to last year with JAX, it’s difficult to give your all on defense when it’s known that your offense can’t move the ball. Either way, Dak should be treated as a low-end QB1 - CHI is only giving up 14.3 FPPG to QBs and 17.5 to WRs.
Amari Cooper (downgrade) is now riding a stretch of 3 disappointing performances in a row, having yet to find the endzone or clear 100-yards receiving since Week 10. A glaring concern is his target share, he’s not drawing the lion’s share à la Michael Thomas or Davante Adams. Instead,
Randall Cobb and
Michael Gallup are eating into his targets, with Gallup seeing the exact same percentage as Cooper over the last six weeks. Add to the mix that Cooper has been awful away from the friendly confines of the house that Jerry built (Rotoworld), and we have the recipe for another disappointing outing. Don’t bench Coop, but don’t expect a world beating performance either. He’s more a WR2 this week, with Cobb and Gallup being relegated to WR3 status.
Jason Witten has continued to turn back the clock this year, but he’s really not an option outside of deeper leagues - consider him a touchdown dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown For reasons unknown, Jason Garrett’s game plan last week involved mostly passing against one of the best secondaries in the league, instead of running the ball against one of the worst rush defenses.
Ezekiel Elliot (downgrade) still gobbled up 71-yards on the ground on only 12 carries, while putting up an additional 66-yards on 7 catches. Zeke is a matchup proof RB1, but again draws a matchup that projects tough sledding - CHI only gives up 18.1 FPPG to RBs.
Tony Pollard needs to be rostered for fantasy playoffs, whether you own Zeke or not.
Bears
Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #23
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): S Jeff Heath (Q) LB Leighton Vander Esch (D) DT Antwaun Woods (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CHI): WR Taylor Gabriel (D) TE Ben Braunecker (D) OT Bobby Massie (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Allen Robinson (24%) Anthony Miller (19%) Taylor Gabriel (19%) Tarik Cohen (15%) David Montgomery (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: David Montgomery (62%, 18, 2) Tarik Cohen (55%, 7, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown In the second matchup on Turkey day,
Mitchell Trubisky (downgrade) had one of his best outings of the season against an ailing DET team, throwing for 338-yards and three touchdowns with only one interception. It’s likely not a performance that can be replicated, and he’s not a trustworthy option for any format, outside of extremely deep 2QB leagues.
Surprisingly, it was not
Allen Robinson that led the Bears in receiving last week, but
Anthony Miller, who has taken full advantage of
Taylor Gabriel’s absence. Don’t go chasing waterfalls, as Trubisky has only cleared 250-yards passing in four games this year. This offense has only been able to support one receiver, and DAL has been particularly stingy against the pass, even with a bottom-10 Pass DVOA - only giving up 18.5 FPPG to WRs. Miller has earned himself every week WR4 treatment, but outside of deeper formats, he seems like a wish, especially with the fantasy season on the line. Allen Robinson is matchup proof and belongs in all lineups, but temper expectations this week, he’s more a WR2 in the tough matchup. Don’t consider using
J.P Holtz or
Bradley Sowell as a TE streamer, just don’t.
RB Breakdown If you drafted
David Montgomery (upgrade) in the first five rounds, you didn’t get the season you were hoping for. That can be partially attributed to CHI not living up to expectations as a team, but also to Matt Nagy’s insistence on using a RBBC with
Mike Davis, or deciding to pass instead of using one of their best offensive weapons. Either way, Dmont is the RB20 in .5 PPR formats, which while is still a bust, is something to build on for next year. It’s very possible he becomes a post-hype sleeper, and I’ll personally be looking to draft him at a discounted rate next year. DAL gives up 18.1 FPPG to RBs, and it’s likely that CHI has positive or neutral game-script at home, so Montgomery should see plenty of work. Get him fired up as a solid RB2. The human joystick,
Tarik Cohen, simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted. He’s better suited to PPR formats, but he’s just a big play dependent RB3 in all formats and should be left on the bench.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Cowboys 13 Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills
Ravens ATS: 6-6-0
Bills ATS: 8-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Ravens 24.5 Bills 19
Ravens
Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #22
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): TE Nick Boyle (Q) WR Seth Roberts (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Tre’Davious White (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Mark Andrews (20%) Marquise Brown (18%) Nick Boyle (13%) Willie Snead (11%) Hayden Hurst (9%) Mark Ingram (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Mark Ingram (55%, 17, 2) Gus Edwards (38%, 7, 1) Justice Hill (6%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown It’s clear now, the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL. With victories over the Seahawks, Patriots, and 49ers, there is nothing left to prove. SF was able to give them their closest game of the season, but even the best defensive line in the game couldn’t stop
Lamar Jackson (upgrade) from converting short yardage situations. Jackson needs just 63-yards rushing to break Michael Vick’s record of most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback - going against a bottom-10 Run DVOA in BUF seems like just the place to do it. BUF cedes just 13.1 FPPG to QBs and just 17.5 FPPG to WRs - but Lamar is immune to things we mere mortals would consider imposing - fire him up as THE QB1.
No receiver or tight end saw more than six targets last week, and
Mark Andrews and
Hayden Hurst finished tied for the most receptions, with just three. Outside of Andrews, it’s extremely difficult to predict where the volume is going week-to-week, so it’s likely best not to start a BAL wideout - especially going against one of the best secondaries in the league.
Marquise Brown (downgrade) is the only WR worth consideration in this offense, and he draws a difficult matchup against CB Tre’Davious White, who has won most of his shadow dates this season (Rotoworld). Consider Brown a boom-or-bust WR3, and I’d really only consider playing him if you have no other option, or you are playing a team in fantasy playoffs with a high projected point total and need the boom week over consistency.
RB Breakdown The RB9 on the season in .5 PPR,
Mark Ingram (upgrade) has been an absolute steal at his ADP. Although he’s not seeing huge volume, and he has been vultured by Lamar Jackson on a regular basis at the goal line. Although, this offense is generating enough points for Ingram and Jackson to co-exist. Ingram has 12 touchdowns on the year, 9 rushing and 3 receiving, and there’s no reason to see him slowing down in the explosive BAL offense. On tap is a matchup with a bottom-10 Run DVOA - BUF is ceding 18.3 FPPG to RBs - get Ingram active as an RB1.
Gus Edwards is Ingram’s true handcuff, not rookie
Justice Hill, and he should be rostered by Ingram owners for fantasy playoffs.
Bills
Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #25
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): S Earl Thomas (P) CB Jimmy Smith (P) CB Marlon Humphrey (P) ILB Patrick Onwuasor (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): John Brown (27%) Cole Beasley (20%) Devin Singletary (13%) Isaiah McKenzie (13%) Dawson Knox (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Devin Singletary (78%, 17, 4) Frank Gore (22%, 10, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown BUF vs. BAL is the matchup of two QBs who were told that they could never play the position at the highest level. So far, both Lamar Jackson and
Josh Allen have exceeded expectations in the NFL. Although BAL now boasts a top-3 secondary - and only gives up 13.1 FPPG to QBs, and 20.8 FPPG to WRs - Allen’s willingness to get it done with his legs warrants every week QB1 treatment. I’d temper expectations a bit, but unless you have a top-5 QB option, it’s likely best to roll with Allen at home this week.
Smokey
John Brown (downgrade) has been an absolute stud this season and is on pace to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, something that hasn’t been done for BUF since Sammy Watkins in 2015 (pro-football-reference). Brown gets a downgrade this week facing off against a trio of stud Cornerbacks - Marcus Peters is PFF’s No. 5 CB, Marlon Humphrey is No. 30, and Jimmy Smith is No. 40 - Brown is more a WR2 in the tough matchup.
Cole Beasley (downgrade) has exploded the last few weeks, but it’s the same story as Brown, going against stud CB Humphrey in the slot projects as a floor week for Beasley. He should be considered a low-end WR3 that is better suited for PPR formats.
Dawson Knox has had some exciting moments in his rookie season, but can’t be relied upon on a weekly basis. Leave him on the wire.
RB Breakdown The
Devin Singletary breakout has been full steam ahead since Week 9 against WAS, and the rookie has received more than 15 touches in every game except for one since then.
Frank Gore will continue to be a thorn in his side, but Singletary can be safely treated as a weekly flex option. Unfortunately, against BAL is tough sledding - they only cede 17 FPPG to RBs. Plus, it’s likely that BUF faces negative game-script and is forced to abandon the run. Singletary has shown passing game chops, so he’s decently matchup proof, just temper expectations in the tough matchup.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 17 Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13)
Redskins ATS: 5-7-0
Packers ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Redskins 14.5 Packers 27.5
Redskins
Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): CB Tramon Williams (P) CB Kevin King (Q) CB Tony Brown (Q) DT Tyler Lancaster (Q) ILB Blake Martinez (Q) S Will Redmond (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (WAS): WR Trey Quinn (D) WR Paul Richardson (Q) G Brandon Scherff (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Terry McLaurin (24%) Kelvin Harmon (15%) Paul Richardson (15%) Jeremy Sprinkle (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Derrius Guice (30%, 12, 3) Adrian Peterson (36%, 13, 1) Chris Thompson (36%, 4, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown Washington has now found its way into the win column three times this season, including back-to-back wins against DET and somehow CAR. Regardless,
Dwayne Haskins is not a fantasy option.
The decline of
Terry McLaurin (downgrade) has been scary fast, as he hasn’t cleared 75-yards receiving in six consecutive games, and has six or fewer targets in five of his six last games (Rotoworld). This passing game is one to steer clear of for fantasy playoffs. Don’t do it.
RB Breakdown Adrian Peterson and
Derrius Guice (upgrade) continue to split carries, and between the two, Guice has more upside. Unfortunately, with the RBBC and
Chris Thompson being healthy, there may not be enough volume to count on. Guice has received just 11 and 12 touches since coming back from injury, and although he’s made the most of them, as long as all three running backs are in the mix, it will be hard to rely on any of them. This week presents a great opportunity - GB cedes 22.1 FPPG to RBs - but even with the great matchup, it’s likely that WAS faces a negative game-script and is forced to abandon the run, limiting the ceiling of Guice. Consider Guice a back-end RB2 with upside, Peterson a middling RB3, and Thompson a waiver-wire change of pace back.
Packers
Opp (WAS) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (WAS) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (WAS): LB Ryan Anderson (Q) LB Montez Sweat (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): OT Bryan Bulaga (Q) TE Jimmy Graham (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Davante Adams (32%) Jamaal Williams (13%) Allen Lazard (12%) Aaron Jones (11%) Jimmy Graham (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Aaron Jones (58%, 15, 6) Jamaal Williams (42%, 14, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown In a game bogged down by snowy conditions,
Aaron Rodgers (upgrade) turned in an impressive performance against the sub-par New York Giants defense. This week, he’ll return home to face the Redskins, who are slightly below average in both DVOA (20th) and FPPG allowed to QBs (20th). This profiles as a plus matchup that Rodgers should be able to take advantage of, and it also bodes well for him that his entire arsenal of weapons is (likely) healthy heading into the weekend. View Rodgers as a solid QB1, but his ceiling has been lowered slightly this year due to the effectiveness of the run game in the red zone. The biggest concern with starting Rodgers against the Redskins is that they take a big lead and he isn’t needed much for the win. But he should be able to rack up a solid stat line regardless.
Davante Adams (auto-start) was able to cash in last week as well, hitting on two scores despite not getting over 100 receiving yards. Adams is a must start in any league and any format, and the matchup against the Redskins (17th against WRs) doesn’t do anything to move the needle. Expect a solid, potentially blow-up type performance out of Adams this week if the Redskins are able to at all keep pace offensively.
Allen Lazard (volume downgrade), has a big day of his own on Sunday, going for 103 yards and a TD, despite only catching 3 passes. The volume is an indicator that this type of production shouldn’t be expected again this week, and while Washington is vulnerable to the pass, they aren’t enough of a sieve to make Lazard a trustworthy streamer. He’s a dart-throw WR4 in hopes of a long TD, and would be a very risky fantasy playoff dice roll.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and
Geronimo Allison continue to be non-factors, so leave them on waivers in all leagues.
Jimmy Graham isn’t operating at 100%, and hasn’t had a usable stat line in weeks, do not even consider him this week.
RB Breakdown The up and down season from
Aaron Jones (upgrade) continues to confound all potential logic. Even in positive game-script and seemingly run-heavy weather conditions, Jones was unable to put anything of note together on his 15 touches.
Jamaal Williams (upgrade PPR) didn’t do much more with his 14 touches, but at least salvaged his day with a decent receiving line. The Redskins are not a stout rush defense - 19th run DVOA and 12th most FPPG to RBs - and the position as home favorites make both Packers’ RBs attractive targets. Jones is the superior play due to his game breaking ability and role as the goal-line back, but
Williams is an intriguing flex in PPR leagues. Treat
Jones as a borderline RB1, just be aware he isn’t very trustworthy at this point. This feels like a spot he would drop 100+ and 1-2 TDs, but we just never know.
Score Prediction: Packers 28, Redskins 14 Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5)
Broncos ATS: 7-5-0
Texans ATS: 6-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Broncos 16 Texans 25.5
Broncos
Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Gareon Conley (Q) CB Bradley Roby (Q) LB Brennan Scarlett (Q) DE Carlos Watkins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): OG Ron Leary (Q) RB Royce Freeman (Q) OL Connor McGovern (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (21%) Tim Patrick (14%) Jeff Heuerman (10%) Phillip Lindsay (9%) Royce Freeman (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Phillip Lindsay (44%, 20, 3) Royce Freeman (56%, 9, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Broncos turned to rookie
Drew Lock (downgrade) last week, and while his individual stats weren’t impressive, he was able to pull out a surprising win against the reeling Chargers. Lock is not on anyone’s fantasy radar at this point, least of all managers that were able to get into fantasy playoffs, so we will instead focus on how he impacts the pass-catchers in this offense.
Lock’s top target was no surprise, as
Courtland Sutton (volume upgrade) continues to dominate targets in Denver. Sutton’s success was somewhat of a surprise, as he was able to account for over half of Lock’s yardage, and both of his TDs. Sutton has earned auto-start status at this point, and a matchup with the Texans helps to ease concerns around his QB play. Keep him in all lineups and hope that Lock improves heading into his second start so that the Texans aren’t able to simply double or triple cover Sutton to shut down the entire offense. Consider him a solid WR2 at this point. No other pass catcher in this offense is trustworthy in fantasy, especially with Lock at the helm, so avoid any of the names that aren’t Sutton.
Noah Fant and
Tim Patrick are interesting dynasty stashes, but shouldn’t be anywhere near fantasy lineups this week.
RB Breakdown Second year RBs
Phillip Lindsay and
Royce Freeman continue to see an almost exact 50-50% snap split, but Lindsay has consistently seen more carries over the last 6-8 weeks. That was the case again last week as he out-touched Freeman 20-9. That has rendered Freeman completely unusable in fantasy, while Lindsay has been unable to backup his breakout rookie year. Lindsay gets the necessary volume to be in the RB2 range, but the struggles at QB, on the O-Line, and at creating scoring chances overall, have held him back significantly. Consider him a decent RB2 this week with a plus matchup - the Texans have given up the 4th most FPPG to RBs. If you are at all shallow at RB, or start 3 every week, Lindsay should likely be in your lineup.
Texans
Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #17
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): LB Von Miller (Q) LB Malik Reed (Q) S Will Parks (Q) LB Jeremiah Attaochu (Q) LB Alexander Johnson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (Q)
Key WCB matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Chris Harris Jr. (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (34%) Will Fuller (23%) Kenny Stills (14%) Duke Johnson (12%) Darren Fells (11%) Jordan Akins (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Duke Johnson (68%, 14, 6) Carlos Hyde (38%, 11, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Texans became the second team to expose some of the weaknesses of the Patriots during their SNF win.
Deshaun Watson (auto-start) was impressive again even facing a tough matchup, and should be in all lineups again this week. The Broncos give up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season, but have the 17th ranked pass defense by DVOA. Watson is a set and forget. Stud WR
DeAndre Hopkins will likely face shadow coverage from the impressive Chris Harris Jr., but it’s virtually impossible to bench Nuk in any situation, even in a tough matchup like this one.
The bigger question is what to do with the Texans’ secondary receiving options.
Will Fuller (upgrade) will likely be the beneficiary of Harris’ coverage on Nuk, as he will instead draw Isaac Yiadom. The Broncos have been stout against the pass this season, but over the past 4 weeks they are allowing the 11th most FPPG to WRs. Fuller is a risky play this week, as we’ve seen his floor is a goose-egg. He does has blow-up potential in a plus individual matchup. Consider him a risk-reward WR3 that has a solid shot at paying off.
Kenny Stills (downgrade) did well last week against the Patriots, and is in play as a low-end WR3 as well, but temper expectations as the Broncos are allowing the fewest FPPG to slot-wideouts this year. He would be a dice-roll in the first week of fantasy playoffs and might be too risky of a play.
Darren Fells just continues to produce at the TE position, snagging another TD last week. The Broncos are middle of the pack at defending the position, and Fells lack of volume is concerning, so he’s no more than a TD-dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown The Texans run-game struggled against the Patriots, but pass-catching back
Duke Johnson was able to create some big plays through the air. He cashed in a TD on a perfect option route in the first quarter. This week should be somewhat easier on the ground, and the game-script is projected to be favorable with the Texans as huge home favorites. That would make
Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard) a more attractive play, although he is tough to trust in lineups due to his low floor and dependency on rushing TDs. Consider
Hyde a mid-tier RB2 in standard leagues with a slight downgrade in PPR leagues.
Johnson is an intriguing flex in PPR leagues, but a tough sell in standard leagues as his weekly touch total cannot be trusted. Ultimately both are risky, but we like Hyde slightly more this week for matchup and game-flow reasons.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Broncos 13 San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
49ers ATS: 7-4-1
Saints ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: 49ers 20.5 Saints 23.5
49ers
Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): LB Kiki Alonso (D) LB A.J. Klein (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): WR Dante Pettis (D) TE George Kittle (Q) OT Joe Staley (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Marshon Lattimore, Deebo Samuel vs. Eli Apple (not full projected shadow matchups, ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (25%) Deebo Samuel (19%) Emmanuel Sanders (16%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Kendrick Bourne (11%) Tevin Coleman (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Raheem Mostert (74%, 21, 2) Tevin Coleman (18%, 6, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Niners came up just short against the Ravens last week, and will get no reprieve heading into Week 14’s massive matchup against the Saints. SF will be operating on a short week, but are almost entirely back to full health offensively, so that isn’t much of a concern.
Jimmy Garappolo (downgrade) didn’t produce much in terms of fantasy value last week, as it was the running game and the defense that kept the Niners in the game. The Saints are tough against the pass - 9th best DVOA on the season - but have been somewhat vulnerable to QBs (10th most FPPG allowed). It would be unwise to trust Jimmy G for as more than a mid-tier QB2, but the Saints have one of the few offenses that could force the Niners into a rare shootout. Still, he’s not a recommended start this week.
With Garoppolo struggling last week, no one was able to stand out in the passing game, although that was due in part to the rainy conditions and stout secondary of the Ravens.
George Kittle (auto-start) remains the top target in this offense, and he remains an elite TE1 whenever healthy as he’s capable of a big week at any time.
Deebo Samuel did snag a TD on a 4th down conversion in the first half, and his recent run of productive games has him firmly on the WR3 radar. It appears that
Emmanuel Sanders (downgrade) is more likely to see Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage, but Lattimore typically doesn’t travel to the slot, so that won’t be a full shadow matchup. Samuel should see a lot of Eli Apple, and while neither player has been dominant, Lattimore has shown flashes again this year of true shut down ability. Downgrade Sanders slightly into WR3/4 territory, but keep Samuel in the WR3 range. Both are risky starts for fantasy playoffs, but Deebo seems like the safer bet with a bit more upside at this point.
RB Breakdown The Niners backfield production continues to elude most owners lineups, as last week it was
Raheem Mostert who broke out for a big day. Mostert needs to be taken seriously as a fantasy option for the first week of the playoffs. He turned 21 touches into more than 150 total yards last week, and his 74% snap share dwarfed that of “starter”
Tevin Coleman (volume downgrade). At this point, it’s impossible to predict what we will see this week. Plus, the Saints allow the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs on the season, so it’s a tough matchup on-paper. Mostert has probably earned low-mid RB2 status heading into the difficult matchup, whereas Coleman simply cannot be trusted in lineups in a must-win week.
Matt Breida returned to full practice this week, so his likely return muddies the waters even further. It would likely be best to avoid the situation entirely in a tough matchup and a three-way timeshare, but Mostert is the favorite for fantasy value this week. It’s just tough to trust it.
Saints
Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #14
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): S Jaquiski Tartt (D) DT Jullian Taylor (D) DE Dee Ford (Q) DT D.J. Jones (Q) CB Richard Sherman (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): OG Andrus Peat (D) OT Terron Armstead (Q) RB Zach Line (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (28%) Alvin Kamara (25%) Jared Cook (17%) Latavius Murray (9%) Ted Ginn (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Alvin Kamara (82%, 15, 8) Latavius Murray (26%, 4, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Saints disappointed slightly against the Falcons, and
Drew Brees (downgrade) threw for only 184 yards and 1 TD despite leading them to a 26-18 win. The matchup against the Niners is going to be much more challenging. They have the top ranked pass defense by DVOA and have given up the second fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. Brees deserves to be downgraded into the high-end QB2 range, and owners would do well to heavily consider an alternative option as they head into playoffs.
Currently threatening the NFL single season reception record,
Michael Thomas (auto-start) is simply an unstoppable force. Keep him locked in as a high-end WR1, even in the tough matchup, as he can rack up points in so many ways and will be leaned on heavily if the Saints are to get a crucial home victory here.
Ted Ginn and
Tre’Quan Smith, however, should be avoided at all costs.
Jared Cook is on a nice stretch of play the past few weeks, but the Niners are tough against TEs as well - fewest FPPG to the position. Cook should be viewed as more of a low-end TE1 this week, but is tough to bench with how well he’s playing and the lack of depth at the position. He likely needs to be in your playoff lineup, as he has been seeing a lot of high-quality/high-value targets of late.
RB Breakdown It was another “floor” type week for
Alvin Kamara (auto-start) last week, as he was under 100 total yards with no TDs for the fifth time this year. He has put together a decent year, but his fantasy lines have been below-average by his standards. Obviously., he needs to be in lineups again this week, even in a tough matchup, as he is capable of blowing up in any game and will score double digits even in his down weeks.
Latavius Murray (downgrade) is much less attractive considering his recent lack of volume and the fact the 49ers are so stout defensively. He’s no more than a TD-dependent RB3/flex in standard leagues, and is unplayable in PPR leagues.
Score Prediction: Niners 21, Saints 17 Part 1 of 2
GLOSSARY
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019 What’s up fellow fantasy football connoisseurs, hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year. We are going to continue to publish our matchup guide through the playoffs for those that play DFS or fantasy playoff leagues. We will give estimated valuations of players, as well as game flow projections and possible implications of injuries or trends on those involved. Best of luck to all!
DFAroto Playoff Record for Predictions
Moneyline: 2/4 ATS: 3/4 Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Vikings ATS: 10-7-0
49ers ATS: 9-6-1
Projected Point Totals: Vikings 18.75 49ers 25.75
Vikings
Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #11
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (P) DE Kentavius Street (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): WR Adam Thielen (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Stefon Diggs (23%) Adam Thielen (12%) Dalvin Cook (10%) Kyle Rudolph (10%) Irv Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Dalvin Cook (78%, 31, 5) Alexander Mattison (18%, 6, 2) Ameer Abdullah (4%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown How you like me now?!
Kirk Cousins (downgrade) got the first big win of his career last week in a shocking upset of the Saints in The Big Easy. On tap is another beastly defense; San Francisco ranks second in Pass DVOA, while also producing the 11th best Run DVOA. Needless to say, it projects as tough sledding for the entire Vikings offense. Mike Zimmer’s game plan will flow through the run game again, capping Cousins upside in the box score. He again projects as a fade for DFS, especially considering the other signal callers available on the slate. The matchup isn’t a good one - SF cedes just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs and just 19.1 to opposing WRs - Plus, the 49ers defense will be bolstered by the return of LB Kwon Alexander and SS Jaquiski Tart. DT Dee Ford was also expected to return, but his status is now a bit murkier as we head into the weekend. All of this is to say, it’s probably best to go a different route at QB.
Stefon Diggs (slight downgrade) busted last week, but if you read our Wild Card article it was to be expected. San Francisco has been second best in the NFL for limiting explosive pass plays (20+ yards), giving them up on just 6% of plays (sharpfootballstats). Considering Diggs role in the Vikings offense as the main downfield threat, he again faces an uphill battle to DFS success. If not for the midweek injury to fellow wideout
Adam Theilen (Q), Diggs would be receiving a full downgrade. If Theilen is in anyway limited, however, Diggs could see a volume upgrade that would keep him active in the WR2 conversation. Plus, he’s always just one deep ball away from hitting value. Either way, Diggs is no more than a contrarian play in a tough matchup - according to PFF his matchup disadvantage is set at -5%, he’s expected to see primary coverage from Ahkello Witherspoon (PFF’s No. 72 CB). While that matchup isn’t exactly imposing, considering the 49ers also field the No. 1 ranked CB (Richard Sherman), and the No. 9 (K’Waun Williams); it’s going to be tough for Diggs. The midweek injury to
Theilen renders him no more than a dart throw due to volume and playing time concerns. Proceed at your own risk, but again he’s the preferred play to
Diggs if active and not limited.
Kyle Rudolph hauled in the game winner last week, but outside of that barely managed to produce. He and
Irv Smith are no more than touchdown dependent tight end options. The edge again goes to Rudolph due to his nose for the endzone.
RB Breakdown Dalvin Cook (volume upgrade) handled an amazing 31 touches in the Wild Card Round, parlaying them into 94 yards on the ground with two touchdowns, also adding a 3-36-0 receiving line. San Francisco has been a bit weaker against the run than the pass, so Cook can again be considered a volume based RB1 with a great chance at finding the endzone. His monster volume should alleviate any concerns of the tough matchup - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RBs, giving up an average of 112.6 yards per game on the ground - still, Cook can’t be counted out, and may be under-owned due to the expected negative game-script. Remember, this offense flows through Cook.
49ers
Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA (Regular Season): #7
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA (Regular Season): #9
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (D) CB Mackensie Alexander (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): G Mike Person (P)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): George Kittle (31%) Emmanuel Sanders (19%) Deebo Samuel (18%) Kendrick Bourne (9%) Raheem Mostert (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Raheem Mostert (54%, 11, 2) Tevin Coleman (30%, 6, 2) Matt Breida (16%, 4, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown The 49ers head into Saturday as 7 point home favorites. This is in large part due to their success on defense in 2019, but also because
Jimmy Garoppolo (slight downgrade) has proven to be a massive success. The guy is sporting a perfect QBR when throwing the ball 20+ yards between the numbers (Next Gen Stats), plus, he’s been pretty damn good throwing to every other place on the field as well. The Vikings have been very good against imposing signal callers - limiting QBs to just 14.2 FPPG and WRs to 22.4 FPPG - plus, they held Drew Brees to just 208 yards passing in the Wild Card Round. Another thing to consider, Jimmy G is making his first career playoff start, and historical trends show us that quarterbacks generally struggle. Since 2010, teams are 9-17 when starting a first-time quarterback in the playoffs (washingtonpost.com). Still, it feels different with Jimmy G. However, considering that the Vikings were able to get pressure against the Saints, who have a better ranked offensive line according to PFF than the 49ers, and that San Francisco is a run first team, Jimmy G should likely be faded this weekend.
Deebo Samuel (slight upgrade) and
Emmanuel Sanders are the only wideouts in this offense with over 10% of the target share, making them the only ones worth considering. Sanders has taken on the role as field stretcher with an aDOT of 12.6 yards, while Samuel has thrived as an underneath play maker with an aDOT of 6.5 yards, while also churning out 201 YAC this year. The Vikings corners are a bit banged up, plus were never an imposing matchup anyway - Trae Waynes (PFF’s No. 27 CB), Mike Hughes (PFF’s No. 101 CB), and Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s No. 141 CB) have all been exploitable, while Mackensie Alexander (PFF’s No. 59) has been announced as out for this weekend.
Samuel has the second best matchup advantage for the weekend according to PFF, behind only Tyreek Hill. He’s sitting at a 20% advantage, while
Sanders isn’t far behind at 18%. One thing to consider is the explosive pass rate (20+ yards) given up by the Vikings. They only yield them on 7% of plays (sharpfootballstats.com), making Samuel the preferred play as the underneath option.
George Kittle (upgrade) has been an absolute stud in 2019, not only is he the No. 1 ranked tight end by PFF, he’s also the highest ranked player in the NFL by PFF. He’s a freaking monster. Still, the Vikings have been very good against opposing tight ends - ceding just 4.8 FPPG to the position, second best. Either way, I’m not willing to bet against Kittle, and considering the other tight ends on the Saturday slate, he should likely be locked into most lineups. The only other to be considered is Mark Andrews (see below), who draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Titans.
RB Breakdown The 49ers backfield has been a bit of a mess to predict all year, but has shaped up in favor of
Raheem Mostert in recent weeks. The emergence of Mostert has relegated
Tevin Coleman and
Matt Breida to complementary roles, with neither offering much in the way of fantasy value. Minnesota has been average against enemy backs - surrendering 16.5 FPPG to the position - but they have allowed an average of 146.3 rushing yards per game over their last three contests. The Vikings defense played above their season average in terms of rushing yards allowed against the Saints, only giving up 97 yards, but New Orleans only ran the ball a meager 17 times. Mostert is in a good spot to produce considering the expected positive game-script at home, but the concern in a Kyle Shanahan offense is the hot hand approach used by the coaching staff. If Mostert doesn’t get it going early, he could see his touches dwindle in favor of a producing back. Still, he’s the cheapest starting RB on the Saturday slate, and offers the same touchdown upside as the other options. Proceed at your own risk, but Mostert could be a fixture in lineups finishing in the money.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 21 Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Titans ATS: 9-7-1
Ravens ATS: 10-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Titans 18.5 Ravens 28
Titans
Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (BAL) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): WR Adam Humphries (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): AJ Brown (26%) Corey Davis (16%) Tajae Sharpe (12%) Adam Humphries (12%) Jonnu Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Derrick Henry (81%, 35, 1) Dion Lewis (18%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Titans passing offense predictably found little success against the shutdown secondary of New England last week, but thanks to strong work in other facets of the game, they are on to the second round.
Ryan Tannehill (potential volume upgrade) was a dud in lineups last week, going 8/15 for only 72 yards in the win, despite starting strong on his first drive with multiple completions and a TD throw. As the game wore on, he struggled to find anything downfield and the Titans settled into a ground and pound approach to bleed the clock and pull out a win. The Ravens secondary is unlikely to be much softer on Tannehill this week, as their four main CBs all rank in the top-35 in yards per cover snap as graded by PFF (Rotoworld). The one factor that may work in his favor is a potential shootout forced by the Ravens’ potent offense; if the Titans are facing a big second half deficit they will be less able to lean on their run game. Tannehill isn’t a great play, but makes for a possible dice roll in hopes this turns into a high-scoring and pass-happy affair.
With Tannehill limited by both volume and ineffectiveness, none of the Titans WRs were able to produce last week. That could change if the Ravens force this game into a higher scoring affair - their offense is in another world from the Patriots this season - so there is hope for these pass-catchers this week. While the Ravens secondary is among the best in the NFL, they did rank middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs over the course of the season. Still, they are now ranked by DVOA as the 2nd best defense in the league (based on Weighted DVOA, since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-4, and Weeks 5-10 are somewhat discounted), so this will be a tough matchup. The projected negative game flow could play in the Titans WRs favor though; any increase in volume would be welcomed.
AJ Brown (slight upgrade) is the safest bet of this group as he was on an extreme hot streak to finish the regular season, and is not the first WR to be shut down by the Pats defense, so prospective owners should try to have a short memory. Expect him to lead the team in targets and/or catches, and he has a solid shot of bouncing back. He makes for a quality Saturday play based on hope for volume and high-scoring conditions.
Corey Davis (volume downgrade) is much riskier, as he hasn’t seen the targets to believe he can produce well this week. He’s no more than a low-end dart throw in hopes of a red zone target or two.
Jonnu Smith (matchup downgrade) was ineffective last week, and now faces a Baltimore defense that ceded the fewest FPPG to TEs in the regular season. He still has the upside and athleticism to pop off a big play or two, but he is not a trustworthy play. Ultimately, only Brown is worthy of rostering unless you are willing to roll the dice.
RB Breakdown There is really no other way to describe
Derrick Henry’s (upgrade) performance last week other than pure dominance. Yes, he is running behind a strong O-Line, and yes he is in a scheme that plays to his strengths. However, in watching the tape it’s clear that on many of his runs he is creating a large portion of the yards on his own. This season, he was tops in the NFL in yards after contact with 973, and was third in broken tackles at 29 (theringer.com). He continues to run around, past, and through defenders on a weekly basis. Baltimore’s defense did well to limit RBs through the regular season, but that was in part due to their lack of RB receptions allowed, which doesn’t affect Henry as much (Rotoworld). They will do everything they can to limit Henry this week, and potential negative game script may limit his second half touches, but Henry is still a top play for Saturday. He will get 20+ touches, likely see at least one goal line opportunity, and is the only real hope the Titans have of springing the upset. Just be aware there is concern of negative game-flow limiting him slightly.
Dion Lewis is not a realistic fantasy option.
Ravens
Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN) Wednesday Report: LB Jayon Brown (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL) Wednesday Report: Mark Ingram (Q) Mark Andrews (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Adoree Jackson (unlikely full shadow, Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Mark Andrews (22% Marquise Brown (14%) Jaleel Scott (14%) Seth Roberts (12%) Willie Snead (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 16: Mark Ingram (41%, 10, 2) Gus Edwards (41%, 13, 1) Justice Hill (18%, 6, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Ravens head into Divisional Weekend fresh and rested, and
Lamar Jackson (upgrade) now gets the opportunity to rack up the first of what should be many playoff wins in his career. The all but certain 2019 NFL MVP last took the field in Week 16 when he orchestrated a win over the Browns to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC. Fantasy owners need no reminder of the ridiculous numbers Jackson put up in the regular season, and there is little reason to expect much of a dropoff on Saturday. The Titans were strong against the pass in the regular season, and looked impressive in holding Tom Brady to 209 yards with no scores and one interception. However, Jackson’s game is as much running as it is passing, and there has been no team that truly slowed him from racking up yards in either area during the regular season. Jackson is the top play at QB for the weekend, and should pay off well for prospective owners that choose to invest in him.
Jackson’s historical rushing production meant that owners were unable to glean much from this passing game. Only
Mark Andrews (upgrade) was a consistent fantasy option throughout the year, and he quickly became a top-5 weekly option. Tennessee gave up the 6th most FPPG to TEs through the regular season, so this is a plus matchup for the stud TE. Andrews is a top option for the Saturday slate, or the weekend overall, and should be a staple in lineups that can afford him. After that, things get tricky.
Marquise Brown (slight upgrade) proved to be worth owning this season, but he was still a weekly bust candidate if not catching a deep ball or snagging one of Jackson’s five passing TDs on a given week. The Titans were middle of the pack against WRs, and have a below-average pass DVOA, but Brown should see a lot of Adoree Jackson in coverage as well. Jackson has the speed to keep up with Brown in theory, so there’s less of a perceived advantage there. However, if Jackson gets his passing game going, Brown is second only to Andrews in terms of likely production received from said passing. Consider Brown a boom or bust WR3 type this week; he’s an intriguing tournament option to go against the grain. No other Baltimore pass-catcher can realistically be put into a lineup.
RB Breakdown Thursday’s practice report brought about a limited session for veteran starting RB
Mark Ingram (questionable), and there are mixed reports about his potential availability. If he is able to play, Ingram may see slightly reduced snaps, although he has already been only about a 50-60% snap guy in the regular season, but his touch count could be further limited. The matchup with the Titans is somewhat favorable - they had the 19th worst run DVOA but gave up the 13th fewest FPPG to RBs - and the Ravens are huge home favorites, which increases his odds of punching in a TD or two. This gives his outlook a boost, but the injury concern merits close monitoring, and could put him at risk for an in-game aggravation that would tank any lineup. If he is ultimately ruled out prior to kickoff,
Gus Edwards (volume upgrade if Ingram sits) and
Justice Hill immediately vault into potential solid plays. Edwards would likely see the bulk of the early down work, with Hill mixing in as a change of pace and passing game option. Still, Hill didn’t get much passing involvement in the regular season, and would be virtually impossible to trust unless clear reports emerged stating his expected involvement (unlikely). Edwards would be the much stronger play, and would actually become one of the best value options of the weekend. He would likely see around 15-20 touches and have first shot at goal line opportunities. Keep a close eye on the injury reports, and consider avoiding the situation entirely unless a definitive report about Ingram surfaces in advance of lineups locking.
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