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nfl computer picks against the spread week 1 2020

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[NFL] 2020 the year of plague and woes, and how the NFL murdered the Denver Broncos and saved the Ravens

Background

The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion... you know, lets pause and put that in perspective. Video games - the entire idea of electronic games you play, whether on your phone, computer, or dedicated console - have a yearly revenue of $44 billion. That means the NFL makes about 40% of what video games - the entire fucking industry - does worldwide.
It is also deliciously petty. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football. That means they're essentially owned by super rich fans who are not used to anyone telling them no. These owner superfans can fire people, demand trades, etc. And do. Imagine if you picked your industry, and had it run by a bunch of outsiders who knew very little about it, but had vast amounts of money and bad tempers. Oh and unlike European football with relegations, there's nothing to remove a team or force them to be competitive, meaning people making bad decisions can just keep making the bad decisions.
The result is you could probably make a subreddit just called "Gridiron football drama" and it'd be populated as fuck. Therefore I won't go into the minor things - the players who robbed a bunch of people but then bribed their way out of charges, the dogfighting, the guy who shot himself in the leg, that's just standard petty shit. Coaches fired after good seasons because the owner doesn't like them, total idiots left on for years, good ol' boys who never seem to quite depart the NFL despite no one having an idea what they're good at, the ongoing disaster of analytics (the idea of applying mathematics to a sport run by overgrown infants), no, no, that's for another time.
A good time. I'll probably do one or two more of these.

COVID and the League

The NFL makes $16 billion. COVID kills people. $16 billion vs. dead people. Hmmm. Dead people. $16 billion.
So we're having a football season this year. It's almost guaranteed to kill at least some people who are either involved or involved in outbreaks caused by it, but hey, life goes on. Or doesn't.
The NFL pays lip service to preventing the spread, which is the start of our delicious drama.

COVID Protocols - the answer

The NFL has instituted COVID protocols. These are insane. For instance, people on the sidelines have to wear a mask. Athletes don't, because you can't breath through a mask while pushing your body to its limits. They explored face shields, but nah.
So you have two guys who are literally laying next to each other on the ground panting for breath after tackling (this sport isn't at all gay). They are breathing heavily, inches from each other. But say those exact same players who have been breathing in each other's faces for hours celebrate winning in the locker room? That sounds like half a million in fines. Pay up!
There's no real describing how insane this is. The raiders coach doesn't like his mask so he's declared war on the NFL. The Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Raiders, and more have been fined.
The masks have also looked sillier and sillier. This man is considered a football genius. No, he hasn't taken one too many shots to the head or something, he's just incapable of wearing a mask normally. God knows why. Coaches regularly pull them down to talk to people, thus defeating the entire point, etc. See? He wears a mask when he doesn't need to be close to people or talk to them he only pulls it down for short periods of time when he's close and talking. I don't see the problem here.
Half the organizations fined are appealing, and accusations of bias have flown back and forth. Angriest are the Saints, who are PISSED about being fined half a million dollars for having a celebration in their own locker room after a win after they passed a COVID test right before the game.
Does any of this make sense? Nope!
There's some more sensible protocols too. For instance new players have to test negative, then sit out in isolation for six days while the teams wait for them to make sure they don't have COVID, test negative again, then they can join the team. Of course isolation isn't that isolating, but that's a whole other matter. So overall, mixed bag for protocols.

Fake fan noise

Okay, so most games can't be attended by fans (not Dallas, Dallas said fuck it get sick and die) but crowd noise is a big part of football. Crowds cheer their team. So they pipe in fake crowd noise.
This is a little creepy but not too bad. So where's the drama? Well, lets turn to Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. Their QB, Carson Wentz, has been having a bit of a down year. So to show him love, they piped in fake boos. At a home game. This is kinda how Philly fans roll, but needless to say this move drew some controversy.

Baltimore Ravens COVID

The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to play a game on Thanksgiving, but their QB might have COVID. Fortunately the NFL was understanding. A QB is the most important position on the field, and without Lamar Jackson, there's no way the Ravens could be expected to play. So the game has been delayed as they work the situation out. So far, so good.

Denver Broncos

Okay, so that brings us to the Denver Broncos. See, anyone who has COVID has to be quarantined, as does anyone who might have it. Even if they test negative for a long while.
So the Denver Broncos backup QB has COVID. And they had a long meeting with their QB and their other backup QB. And their other backup. In a room with no masks. They're all put on COVID watch list, meaning they can't play.
So the Denver broncos have four quarterbacks, and none can play. The Ravens have just had a game delayed. The Broncos get told... game on.
Okay, they look around for QBs they can get on short notice. But remember in the protocol section where they have to have new players wait six days? Oh. They don't have six days.
In desperation they ask the NFL if they can at least play their assistant coach. He can throw footballs, and knows the playbook. Nope! Not signed as a player, has to sit for six days. "But he's been practicing with the team!" the Broncos tell the NFL. The NFL decides to beat the dead horse some more, and denies them.
Thus the Denver Broncos try to figure out who on their team can throw a football. The answer was their practice squad wide receiver Kendell Hinton. Here's him throwing passes in training camp.
Uh yeah, he catches passes. Not throws them. And has never played a game. And last threw a pass in a game in 2016, in college. And works as a salesman part time.
Is this a total middle finger to the NFL from the Broncos, or just the only person they had? I don't know, but it's ugly.

The game.

So the Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes. These are the highlights. 1 for 9, 13 yards, 2 interceptions. The Broncos got drubbed by the Saints, obviously, although NO was pretty gentle with Hinton overall. There's a lot of "welcome to the NFL" defense strategies you can use against a new QB like blitz zero - basically an all-out blitz - that will generally crush them until they get used to it. NO kindly used none of that, playing pretty standard.
Of course Hinton couldn't beat pretty standard, because Hinton is a receiver who isn't good enough to make the main squad. It's not all bad for him. The Denver Broncos gave him a shoutout on their Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Broncos/status/1333195716831838208
They reportedly gave him an ovation in the locker room, and gave him a the game ball. Multiple players have said they respect him, and they should. They weren't throwing the ball, and they probably would have looked just as bad. Gridiron football positions are not interchangeable, and QB is the hardest to step in to.
Fortunately Hinton seemed happy postgame interview, but damn.

Fallout

Broncos fans are furious the Ravens sat while their team was forced to play. Even ESPN has called this game "unprecedented in the modern era of football." There's a bunch of wagon circling back and forth.
Mike Klis a team reporter who covers them has reported that the Broncos other QBs tested negative before and after the game, meaning they could have played. Had they delayed the game they CERTAINLY could have played. So why did the NFL punish the Broncos and not the Ravens? Why show one team favoritism and guarantee the other a loss?
A big controversy is the NFL seems to be pushing "name brand" QBs. Lamar Jackson, QB of the Ravens, is one of those name QBs, and the NFL is pushing him hard as one of the faces of their game. Drew Lock, the Broncos QB, is not.
So this is adding fuel to that fire. Fans are convinced that people like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson are getting more protection from the NFL - refs are calling fouls if anyone touches them, they're rearranging schedules to highlight them, etc. These people most certainly increase NFL revenue, and the NFL pushes them hard.
On the other side, many outfits are talking how the Broncos broke the rules, and how the punishment was not unwarranted. Are these connected to the NFL? Maybe. Sports media is a bit incestuous. They can't just go report on some other organization if the NFL bans them or does mean things to them.
So this has drawn battle lines, and lead to a grand controversy that's still developing.
Was this interesting? Anyone interested in a writeup of the collapse of the Chicago Bears in 2020, the Antonio Brown saga (in three part harmony), or the 60 year history of mismanagement and ineptitude that is the Detroit Lions? Do you like reading about Gridiron football?
submitted by Smashing71 to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

Top 10 quarterbacks in the upcoming draft

We heave reached my positional breakdown for the 2020 NFL Draft - the much-discussed quarterback class. I don't see this group of four at the top everybody is talking about - to me there are two top ten prospects at the position, two guys I have a second-round grade on and then four more QBs, who I would even consider on day two.

1. Joe Burrow, LSU

This guy’s intelligence to determine defensive looks pre-snap and the accuracy to carve those up is outstanding. He quickly processes information and gets the ball out of his hands. Burrow has a tremendous ability of throwing his receivers open with ball-placement, even against some really tight coverage, putting the ball to the back-shoulder or away from the leverage of defenders. He just finds open space and trusts his receivers to get there. He is at his best on those rainbow balls over the top of the defense, that always seem to drop right into the hands of his streaking receivers. Burrow also doesn’t mind checking it down to his back when the mental clock runs out instead of forcing the ball into a window that simply isn’t there. In the National Championship game versus Clemson it was the first time all year that he looked a like shook at the start, but once that explosive offense started rolling, not even one of the best defenses in the country could slow them down. As good as he is on schedule, what really makes Burrow special is the way he can make things happen when plays break down.
Burrow has some of the best pocket presence I have seen from any quarterback I have ever scouted. You see him shuffle, hitch up and fade when necessary, while keeping two hands on the ball at all times. He has a great feel for when he has to retreat to buy himself that little bit of extra time to float the ball and he also spins out the backdoor quite a bit to escape that way. Burrow only fumbled four times last year on almost 600 drop-backs and despite taking some big hits in the open field. While he did break the all-time single-season record with 60 passing touchdowns last season, he also added five more on the ground. He is an extremely tough and weirdly elusive runner, who burned defenses routinely for crucial conversions. He also shows some deceptive speed to take a crease once he takes off and defenders seem to be surprised looking at their angles, averaging 8.6 yards per scramble. While he obviously was great at carving up defenses from the pocket, he made some incredible plays off script, scrambling towards the sideline and somehow still finding somebody for a nice gain. Burrow doesn’t seem to be afraid of anybody or anything. He is country-strong, shaking off tacklers and standing strong inside the pocket or taking off and got straight up after taking some huge shots at the sideline.
Among all draft-eligible quarterbacks in this class, Burrow is the only one whose passer rating actually went up when he was under pressure last season (-30.2 on average for the top 17). Burrow came through in all the big games for LSU last season. He hit Justin Jefferson for a huge game-clinching touchdown on third-and-17 in the Texas game. He made a bunch of plays off script in that huge showdown at Alabama to keep the chains moving and always found a way to answer when the Crimson Tide looked to pull even again. Even in the National Championship versus Clemson, when it took up until about the middle of the second quarter to understand what DC Brett Venables wanted to do to him, he still managed to throw five touchdowns and make the final result pretty convincing. And then he obviously put together one of the most incredible performances ever by any college quarterback, when he dismantled the Oklahoma defense in the Peach Bowl, scoring touchdowns through the first three quarters only.
With that being said, Burrow does not have the elite arm strength to drive passes from one hash to the opposite sideline as powerful as some other guys can. That lack of a laser also probably led to the game-deciding pick-six in the 2018 Florida game, where it allowed the DB to undercut an out-route. Burrow had great pocket integrity and as good a skill position group as anybody in the country for all of 2019. He also had the benefit of playing for one of the better group of offensive minds in Joe Brady and Steve Ensminger, where it was rather easy to decipher defenses with a lot of check-motions and pass-catchers being schemed free, while also having a receiver going in the first round in this and next year’s class, an outstanding running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a super dependable tight-end in Thaddeus Moss. A good 1000 yards probably came on screens and quick slant routes to Justin Jefferson in the slot. Burrow only played one season close to this level and that hasn’t translated too well recently with other guys. I actually liked Burrow a lot more than most people as a junior because of the toughness and I know that the numbers won’t look great in a heavy run and play-action system, but you have to put his 2019 performance in perspective to some degree.
While Burrow might not have the biggest arm out there, his combination of athleticism, poise, toughness and accuracy make him a shoe-in for the first overall pick. He has those football bloodlines going way back and he always seemed to come through whenever his team really needed him. While you can certainly look at the supporting cast around him as major factors for his success, Burrow also was a big reason all those players around him are looked at the way they are and those coordinators have now received more coveted jobs.

2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Tua is a great distributor, who has the arm and poise in the pocket to get everybody involved, plus he has the mobility and creativity to create wins off schedule. He has shown the ability to diagnose defenses and stay calm in the pocket to go through his progression – something Jalen Hurts simply wasn’t able to do before. To me he is the most natural passer and has the quickest release in this draft class, displaying soft touch and throwing a very catchable ball, Tua’s eyes and feet are linked together tightly and you see him process information to work through progressions rapidly. Because of that he forces defenses to defend every single inch of grass on the field. Tua is pretty violent with how he pushes off that back-leg and emphatically works up inside the pocket to set up his throws. The ball really jumps out of his hand and he is very sudden with turns of the shoulder, as he works his way through his reads. He is very much like Drew Brees in those type of movements and the command he has over an offense, but he is more athletic than the Saints QB ever was.
This young man is lightning quick at setting his feet and getting the ball out. You see him let the ball go before receivers even get into their breaks a lot of times. RPOs with his quick, compact release were an absolute nightmare facing Alabama, while also displaying the kind of pin-point accuracy that allowed his receivers to not break stride and gain yards after the catch. He showcases great rhythm and timing to work the short and intermediate areas, while also throwing a beautiful deep ball, where he lets the ball drop right into the bucket – especially from the opposite hash. That Alabama offense could score at any moment because of that quick-strike ability and it was both a tool to quickly get back into games and to create separation to the opponent. Tua already carved up opposing defenses when they tried to blitz him during his two years as a starter for the Crimson Tide, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt and completing 65 percent of his passes in those situations. While the injuries are obviously a concern, you also have to applaud Tua’s toughness to stand in there when he has a free runner coming at him as well as playing banged up.
The Bama signal-caller is highly elusive inside the pocket and finds ways to get to ball to his guys even with defenders charging right at him. He has that quick twitch a lot of taller passers don’t, which not only lets him operate efficiently from the pocket, but also enables him to get rid of the ball on bootlegs, where he hasn’t even been able to square his shoulders yet. Tua avoids a lot of sacks and gets rid of the ball to take away those negative plays. When he works the scramble drill, his eyes are up at all times as he is moving sideways and puts the ball to a spot where one of his receivers can run underneath it. Tua is also pretty elusive as a runner and has some start-stop quickness to him. Until banging up his ankle in 2018 he was well on his way to win the Heisman and in 2019 he threw a total of 17 touchdowns through the first four games, despite barely playing in fourth quarters through any of them, before injuries started to somewhat derail his season. Still, he is now leaving Tuscaloosa as the school’s all-time leader in career passing touchdowns, the two highest marks in single-season passing touchdowns and recording passer ratings of 137.5 and 143.3 respectively.
However, Tua had four potential first-round receivers on his offense and he threw a bunch of passes behind the line of scrimmage on different screens or dump-offs off fly motions, where he just those guys make things happen with the ball in their hands, or hit somebody on a quick slant and that guy took it for 70-80 yards to make his stats look much better. He doesn’t nearly seem as comfortable firing the ball in some tight windows downfield and decides to pull it down instead, while his effectiveness takes a huge dip when coming off the first read and holding onto the ball. Tua misses some defenders in underneath coverages every once in a while and he is also kind of erratic movements in the pocket at times, while holding on to the ball too long, which not only gives defenders a chance the knock it out of his hands, but also puts his body at risk at time. With the way his receivers were open a lot of times when he expected them to be because of the way defenses usually reacted, Tua can be caught predetermining throws (pick-six vs. Clemson 2018) and it is kind of ironic that he entered the spotlight coming in as the savior for Bama in the 2017 national title game, considering he came up a little small in their rematch with Georgia in the following SEC Championship game and then Clemson the upcoming CFP. Tua is only 6’1” and looks a little small in the pocket – especially against interior pressure. He has this weird tendency of kind of running up into some throws.
To me it is less about the hip injury, but rather if Tua can stay healthy going forward. He’s not an all-world athlete and puts himself into positions were he is vulnerable, but as great as his SEC rival Joe Burrow was last season, the Alabama signal-caller has put together one of the greatest two-year stretches of any quarterback in college football history. His ability to work through progressions like a computer almost, throw the ball with tremendous accuracy and make the most of plays is special. There are some other concerns here and he had a lot of help around him, but assuming he is actually back to 100 percent and those nagging problems have had time to disappear, I think he is absolutely worth a top ten pick and he is clearly the number two quarterback in this draft.

3. Justin Herbert, Oregon

This guy is 6’6’’, 230+ pounds and probably has the most talented arm in the entire draft. Herbert doesn’t have to strain when letting the ball 50+ yards, almost like the flick of a wrist. You see him throw those impressive darts all over the field and he can put the type of velocity on the ball to drive it from one hash to the opposite sideline with ease, while also drilling some throws down the seams where no defender can get to the ball in time. He is also light on his feet, being able to move, reset and launch as well as quarterback in college football these last few years. Herbert doesn’t mind holding onto the ball and taking big hits to give receivers enough time to where he can put it the air late and allow them to separate. He didn’t receive much help from the skill-position players around him, as he saw his pass-catchers drop almost 30 passes in 2018 and last season 7.4 of his passes were dropped as well. Herbert ran a very simplistic offense at Oregon this past year, with a bunch of screens and then deep routes off faking those. The Ducks went from a no huddle, spread offense to a system more based around the rushing attack and play-action off it, where he gained experience actually turning his back to the defense and relocating his targets.
Herbert also has some shiftiness to escape the rush, while being a true threat to pull the ball on zone-read plays and burn you. He is a decisive runner when he chooses to take off and can slice through a lane quicker than a lot of defenses can adjust their angles accordingly. Towards the end of the 2019 season, Herbert really started making use of his athleticism and burned opposing defenses with his rushing ability on several occasions. He rushed for three touchdowns in the 2020 Rose Bowl versus Wisconsin, before closing the game out with a couple of big third-down passes. In addition to that, the Oregon signal-caller has the arm talent to make crazy throws on the run and point to spots for his receivers as he moves towards the sideline, letting the ball go over half the field a lot of times. He made a bunch of those plays versus Washington in a huge showdown as a junior. The Oregon QB ran a strong 4.68 at the combine and had a great passing showcase. He was right on target on deep in-breaking routes, threw three beautiful corner routes in a row and showed off his big arm on the go-ball.
Moreover, Herbert put together a very consistent Senior Bowl week. He clearly stood out among the quarterbacks and if not for Jordan Love putting together some good stretches himself, Herbert would have been heads and shoulders above the rest there. He wrapped things up by absolutely firing some piss missiles during the two-minutes drill on the final day and then was named the Offensive MVP in the actual game. When protected and in rhythm, we have seen what Herbert can do. In 2018 he completed 17 of his first 18 passes versus Stanford and I thought he learned to be more of a well-rounded passer than just a thrower last season. With that I mean not always putting a hundred miles per hour on the ball and driving it, but also using some touch and taking heat off it, when he checked it down late to one of his running backs. I also thought he become more efficient with his pocket movement, especially gaining ground as he hitches up.
On the flipside, Herbert has to do a better job anticipating throws and not waiting for receivers to actually come open, mostly locking in on his first read. At this point he is most comfortable rolling to either side and throwing the ball, rather than working through his progressions and adjusting to defenses post-snap. He lacks someone awareness of who’s coming on blitzes and doesn’t always put his second hand on the football to protect it, which resulted in 26 total fumbles in 43 career starts. As a pure thrower, his feet get stuck at times and he doesn’t have them pointed properly for the throws he goes on to attempt, while also not bringing his whole body into the throw and swinging his back-leg through routinely. That led to plenty of passes landing at the feet of his receiver or going over their head. His front-shoulder gets frozen too many times and he limits the torque he can build up, muscling some throws due to an elongated motion. Herbert is kind of stiff overall and his throwing motion is pretty mechanic. Because of that, he is not super accurate on short throws, as he finished 50th in the FBS in the 1-9 yard range in accuracy percentage according to PFF. Most problematic however, Herbert was only present physically in a lot of big games for the Ducks and did not show that spark necessary to take those contests over, while making some bad decisions and looking like a deer in the headlights.
Herbert’s lack of consistency with reading the field and being precise with his throws is definitely concerning, but his flashes of brilliance when it comes his athleticism and big-time throws is even more intriguing. 728 of his passing yards came on screen passes and he doesn’t work through his progressions particularly well yet, but with the way he ended the season and performed in Mobile, Herbert has likely secured a spot in the top ten of the draft. However, I have some major question marks about his game and his readiness to be a week one starter for whoever drafts him. So I would actually not look at him before the end of the first round.

4. Jordan Love, Utah State

I already believed before the 2019 college football season even started, that Love could be that surprise first-round quarterback this year. He is 6’4”, 225 pounds with an incredibly dynamic arm and overall skill-set. He uses his different arm angles and trajectories, really showing that flexibility and bendiness to change things up with how the ball comes out of his hands. He can not just drive the ball, but also put arc on it or use different speeds. Love shows some suddenness with the way he can snap his feet and turn his shoulder to go with a quick release. You see him give those little look-offs to open up quick throws underneath routinely. He has the velocity on the ball to complete out-routes without allowing trailing defenders to undercut the pass and he has the confidence in his ability to fire the ball into some tight windows over the middle. Even when his receivers were well-covered, Love put the ball into some spots where they had a chance to make a play routinely and when those guys did find a way to hold onto the pass, it ended in spectacular plays. Love can throw off his back-foot with a defender in his face and is not afraid of attacking the deep middle. When he was surrounded with bigger receivers, he put the ball up in the air for them and allowed them to make a play quite often.
Love has a way of escaping from defenders, by spinning off or making them miss, leading to just 23 sacks taken despite being pressured on 27.7 percent of his drop-backs last season. He has a special ability to make throws on the run, can fire the ball 50+ yards off the wrong foot like it’s nothing and you see him fire bullets off a dead-sprint to the left, where he somehow still finds a way to square his shoulders and give his receivers downfield a shot. However, even on bootlegs when he somebody wide open in flats off a sift block fake or on a shall crosser, he goes for the deep comeback instead and hits it in on the run routinely. Love scored seven rushing touchdowns in 2018, despite just recording 63 rushing yards. He is much more dynamic runner than his numbers would indicate, being able to give that little head-fake and the dip defenders for yardage right up the middle. Love also shows pretty good speed to the edge and toughness in traffic.
In 2019 his top three receivers were no longer there and Love didn’t have that explosive check-down option Darwin Thompson presented his sophomore campaign. The offense also wasn’t very creative and under the new coaching staff, they didn’t give Love much help, with plays repeating themselves a whole lot. Much of his bad play was about pressing and trying to do much, when there simply wasn’t much there. Of his 17 interceptions last season, two were tipped by defensive linemen, three came on hail mary attempts and on another three it seemed pretty obvious that receivers were running the wrong route. He impressed at the Senior Bowl with the way his ball cut through the wind while other QBs struggled with that. He also showed some good mobility inside the pocket and the ability to keep his eyes down the field and after a somewhat shaky first day, he put together two more excellent practices, really showing poise and control. Love also had an excellent athletic showing at the combine for a pretty big guy.
While you have to put it into perspective, you can’t overlook the fact Love took a big step back in 2019, going from six to 17 interceptions while completing two percent less of his passes for an average of 1.4 yards less per attempt. He tends to throw some short passes with his arm only, not bringing his lower body forward at all. He also needs to stop trying to lob balls into his guys instead of actually throwing it, at times putting his feet parallel to each other and just leaving the ball up for grabs on those rainbow type throws, with too much under it. While several of his interceptions actually weren’t his fault, there could have been plenty of others going the wrong way, as Love ranked 101st nationally with 26 turnover-worthy plays last season according to PFF. He tries to get the ball to receivers that look open at the moment he releases it, without noticing the pecillinary coverage. His completion percentage last season was highly inflated by the amount of screens he threw – 26.5 percent of his completions were behind the line of scrimmage – and he really struggled in Utah State’s two matchup versus Power 5 teams – LSU and Wake Forest (six INTs combined).
Love has those quick-twitch movement to adjust his platform and get the ball to where it needs to be in a hurry. While it is obviously crazy to make that comparison to Patrick Mahomes, since that guy is probably the most talented quarterback I have ever seen, Love has a lot of similar qualities, in terms of being a flexible athlete, who can change up his throwing angles and releases, as well as being a magician off script. However, at Utah State he also made some absolutely bone-headed decisions and was really pressing last season. His upside is very intriguing, but you need to surround him with the appropriate weapons and a creative offensive coordinators if you don’t want his backyard style of play to be the norm.

5. Jacob Eason, Washington

This young man has the size and arm the NFL is looking for, with the prototype measurements of 6’6”, right around 230 pounds, which most scouts were hell-bent to find just a few years ago. More importantly the arm strength is second to none in this class. Eason can put the ball in the air 50-60 yards without even breaking a sweet and he can fire lasers pretty much to any spot necessary. The ball comes out beautifully and the Washington QB spreads the it all around the field. He has no problem completing corner-routes to the close to the white lines on the field side without much arc to keep the safety from undercutting it in time. He loves to throw all those curl and hook routes, where he can put some zing on the ball. Eason can throw those deep post routes on a rope and make it look easy, but also places some fade balls perfectly on those lob passes and can put it over the top of the underneath defender for a crossing receiver to drift further downfield, showcasing the ability to take speed off the ball. He made a couple of throws in the Las Vegas Bowl against #19 Boise State that will absolutely make your jaw drop.
Eason has experience in a pro-style offense, where he was asked to turn his back to the defense off play-action and make big-throws down the field. He has the confidence to pull the trigger for some tight-window throws or let the ball go to a spot in-between defenders on dig or shallow post routes. When he is in rhythm and on his game, there is a lot to like here. Eason excels in the quick-game from the gun, where he has his drive-foot in front and as soon as it hits, he transitions back forward with some power behind the ball. He is also very accurate getting the ball out on hitch and hook routes and deeper drops, where he can really hit that back-foot and let it fly. At the same time, he has the arm talent to roll either way or run up into the throw for some incredible completions. He especially likes to escape through the back door, spinning to his left and then leading his receiver all the way towards the sideline. Eason didn’t get a ton of help from his wide receivers last season with a drop rate of 7.6 percent and he was pressured on 26.6 percent of his drop-backs.
Unfortunately, Eason locks his feet into the ground a little too much and doesn’t rotate through in a very dynamic fashion for the most part. You see him throw some balls on a line, which don’t give his receiver a adjust and make a play on it and while you like the confidence, there are some throws where one of the safeties can either make a play on the ball himself or just blast the intended receiver. Eason is a below-average athlete and will not contribute whatsoever as a runner, as he finished his career with -126 rushing yards overall. While some NFL GMs are probably different, there are some situations, where I would have liked to see the QB go head-first instead of sliding in order to convert on third downs. Eason completely panics under pressure and makes some terrible decisions in the process, where he fades away or throws it without any usage of the lower body. He crumbled and gave away some big games with bad judgement against Oregon and Utah, including a game-changing pick-six against the Utes throwing from his back-foot.
I really thought Eason should have returned to Washington for the 2020 season, because there are definitely some parts of his game that need help and I wanted to see him come through in the big games, instead of shrinking in those moment. However, I believe he is more daring than reckless, even if that doesn’t mean there aren’t any issues in his judgement for situations and he needs to improve a whole when facing pressure. Still, the size and arm talent, combined with the fact he really only played two seasons make him a very intriguing option to shape into something special with an established starter allowing him to grow for a year.

6. Jalen Hurts, Alabama

Built robust at 6’2”, 220 pounds, Hurts has come a long, long way as a passer from when he first took over the Alabama offense as a freshman. His ability to throw the ball from within the pocket with accuracy and rhythm looked much better in spot-duty as the backup behind Tua in 2018 and he became a completely different guy under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, where he established himself as one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy only a few weeks into the year. I also believe his throwing motion has become much more fluid throughout this offseason, leading up to an excellent passing session at the combine. However, there was never any question about the power behind his arm, which was apparent ever since he threw that 70-yard touchdown on a deep ball when Bama dismantled USC in the 2016 season-opener – his first ever collegiate game. You see those tight spirals on downfield throws, where the nose of the ball is aimed towards the ground. Last season over 1200 yards of his total came on balls travelling 20+ yards down the field. He has the ability to be pretty accurate off-platform as well.
As prolific as he was as a passer for most of the year, Hurts really took over as a runner in the latter parts of that campaign, carrying the ball 106 times over a five-game stretch leading up to the CFP. Not only has he been very effective in the option run game, but he has made some huge plays taking off when a crease opened up. He displays some slick pump fakes when he has an option in the flats off zone-reads and gets some guys to not even lay a hand on him at times Hurts has great shake and head-fakes as a runner, but while some people may think of him as this Lamar Jackson-style runner, he actually has more of a running back mentality with the weightlifting background to back it up with power. He ran over several defensive backs throughout his career and has gained plenty of yardage through contact, displaying a lot of toughness. At the same time he has the speed to slice through defense. That strength also shows when he breaks free from potential sacks and puts the ball out in front for one of his receivers to run underneath off the scramble drill or lead them back towards himself. More importantly however, Hurts has that gamer mentality you want to see from a quarterback. Yes, he was benched in the 2017 national title game because the passing attack for the Tide was pretty stagnant, but when you think of the way he redeemed himself when he jumped into the action versus Georgia the following season or that 28-3 comeback over Baylor the first time around last year, he has stepped up and willed his team to victories
While gets the ball towards the target most of the time, Hurts has not mastered the ability to use the appropriate type of passes – straight-line, lob, touch, etc. The Oklahoma QB tends to not get the front-shoulder pointed towards his target and limits the torque he can build up on his throws, especially when getting the ball out quickly. While he has made huge strides as a pocket-passer, he is still too quick to take off and leaves opportunities on the table. He has definitely improved from his days of being completely flat-footed as he looked downfield, but he still has kind of lazy feet and runs himself into some pressures. He also makes some dumb decision, when he is all the way out at the sideline and tries to throw back across the field and he fumbled eight times last year, dropping the ball below his belt on too many occasions. Overall, his production at Oklahoma was largely due to Lincoln Riley’s quarterback-friendly system, that had produced consecutive Heisman trophy winners the two previous years. There were a bunch of wide-open receivers off mesh concepts and rub routes, plus having an all-world receiver like Ceedee Lamb making you look good with his ability to make magic after the catch helps your numbers a whole lot as well. The second-lowest drop rate in the FBS (1.8 percent) doesn’t hurt either. He needs to see receivers be open for the most part, instead of anticipating throws and a lot of his issues came in a catastrophic Peach Bowl versus LSU, which Big 12 defenses couldn’t expose.
There are a lot of things to like about hurts – his competitiveness, arm strength and mobility standing out the most. However, to me he is more of a developmental prospect with work to be done in terms of getting his body in position to make the most of his throws. I want more subtle movement inside the pocket and him being more effective with his decision-making. I love what I have seen from Hurts in terms of overhauling his throwing motion and the development he has made overall ever since he lost his job to Tua at Alabama, but he is still growing as a passer. To me he is Tyrod Taylor plus – which he can certainly be a top-20 starter in the right system.

7. Jake Fromm, Georgia

The first thing that stands out to me about Fromm’s tape is the fact he has very clean footwork overall – in the quick game, five- and seven-step drops as well as re-setting off play-action. He is at his best in rhythm, letting the ball go right as that last step hits and completing curl or hook routes, but he also wins on those teardrop and back-shoulder throws along the sidelines. At Georgia, he was outstanding at lofting the ball over the top on fade routes and putting it to where only his receiver can put hands on it. Fromm excels at throwing his receivers open on back-shoulder throws, as corners try to stack those guys and don’t allow them to separate originally. In the underneath areas he actually protects his targets from defenders by placing the ball away from those guy. While it is just a small detail, the Georgia QB puts the ball to the outside shoulder on flat routes and outlets every single time, to where his guy can immediately turn upfield. He really understands how to distribute the ball to his arsenal of pass-catchers and spreads the ball around between them, while manipulating defenses with very subtle shoulder- and ball-fakes.
Throughout his three years as a starter with the Bulldogs, Fromm did a great job protecting the ball as part of a team that relied on a heavy running game and stingy defense. Their QB had only 28 turnover-worthy plays in his entire career and had only four fumbles recovered by the opposing team. While he wasn’t asked to fling the ball all over the yard, Fromm has plenty of experience from under center and running pro-style concepts, which can’t be said about many college signal-callers with all those spread offenses. When he was relied upon in certain situations, he did come through for UGA ever since his freshman campaign, stepping up in SEC Championship games. Fromm stands strong in that pocket and keeps his eyes downfield, but he also defeated the blitz a whole lot by releasing the ball extra early to a spot or putting a ton of air under the ball and giving his receivers an opportunity to make a play on it. I also think he is more dangerous when he takes off than you would expect and he is a tough runner when he needs to pick up a first down.
However, Fromm is routinely a tick late with releasing the ball, which does not help considering his arm-talent is average at best. You don’t see too many big opposite-sideline throws or drive passes in the intermediate to deep range. When he wants to really push the ball downfield, he needs this wind-up to enable himself to do that. Fromm struggles to hook up with his flankers on short out-routes consistently, giving defenders a chance to undercut the pass. That’s a big reason four of his five interceptions last season came in short range (0-9 yards) and 25.4 percent of his passes last season were uncatchable. Fromm is way too quick to check it down and he didn’t even allow some patterns to develop before finding Swift & company underneath. Last year he only averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Fromm has to do a better job feeling pressure off the edge and moving up into the pocket, having his weight shifted backwards too much for my taste. He also has a bad habit of flipping the ball and is kind of a statue in the pocket. His arm also looked pretty weak there and he could not make some of impressive throws other guys in Indy intrigued scouts with. Fromm only dropped back 35+ times in seven career games – most quarterbacks from pass-heavy systems have more than that in a single season.
Fromm is a solid, but not very exciting quarterback prospect. If put in the right system, I think he can be a productive starter right off the bat, but if you ask him to make big-time throws all over the field and be the focus of the offense, you will be disappointed. At below nine-inch hands and lacking arm talent, the upside simply isn’t there quite like it is for some other guys, but he has been an excellent starter in college football’s toughest conference and not shied away from competing against the best, actually stepping up his game. At worst he should be one of the best backups in the league, who keeps a cool head and shows a lot of toughness when thrown in a game.

8. Anthony Gordon, Washington State

This 6’2”, 205-pound signal-caller took more drop-backs (740) than any other quarterback in the country last season. Gordon displays bouncy feet inside the pocket and is rapid with setting them to release the ball, while being able to shorten his motion when the ball needs to come out. He is very patient at working through his progressions and allowing patterns to develop. Gordon was at his best over the middle on the intermediate level, layering the ball between linebackers and safeties on dig or shallow post routes, to where his receiver doesn’t have to break stride at all, setting up a lot of yards after the catch. He also throws some beautiful tear-drop fade routes towards the opposite sideline. Gordon can utilize some side-arm action on hook or stick routes, as well as putting the ball to the outside of receivers as he moves that way. Overall he completed 220 of his 264 attempts on passes in the zero to nine yard range. Unlike a lot of these guys coming from Air Raid systems, Gordon actually has the tools to succeed outside that kind of scheme and he probably has the most talented arm for a Wazzu QB in recent years.
Gordon also has somewhat underrated mobility and can pick up some crucial third downs, when the defense drops out and leaves a lane for him, but also to run up in the pocket and feather the ball over defenders. More importantly, he can buy time inside the pocket by sliding around and drifting backwards a little to set up some throws. He sees the entire field very well and won’t let opportunities for big plays slip away too much, with 115 completions on passes thrown for 10+ yards, to go with the precision in the underneath areas. I really like the way he can look off defenders and almost start his release before his eyes even move on to the actual target, especially in combination with guys sitting down their routes and creating more room for them that way. He was highly efficient all over the field, but in particular in the red-zone.
With that being said, Gordon needs to swing that back-leg through more instead of having it hit the turf and kind of whipping the ball. His feet aren’t quite in sync with his upper body at this point. He also has a bad tendency of padding the ball and taking that second hand off it, swinging it around quite a bit. It is maddening to watch the ball drop underneath his belt and then over his head time and time again. Gordon doesn’t drive some balls down the seam enough and allows defender to get back into the picture or exposes his receivers awaiting the pass. You see some ill-advised decisions when he is on the move and just kind of puts the ball up for grabs sometimes. His numbers were blown up in that Air Raid under Mike Leach, where a lot of throws were basically extended handoffs. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 738 yards on screen passes last season and his top two backs caught over 100 balls on swing and angle routes for the most part. At the Senior Bowl, Gordon struggled to cut through the wind for the most part and I would say he’s only slightly above that starter threshold in terms of arm strength.
While he is shockingly loose with the ball, Gordon “only” fumbled five times last year, which isn’t too bad a rate considering the insane amount of drop-backs. That number will be a lot higher in the NFL if he doesn’t change his ball-handling habits. A lot of his production at Wazzu was manufactured through the scheme and he only was a starter for one year, but there a lot of things to work with in terms of field awareness, pocket movement and ability to set up his receivers for run after catch opportunities. Gordon may not have a special arm, but he is a very natural passer and deserves a chance to compete for a starting job early on. While he isn’t nearly as big or has the kind of arm talent as Tom Brady does, he plays a little like the GOAT.


Numbers nine and ten as well as notable mentions in the comments!

If you enjoyed the content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/04/14/top-10-quarterbacks-in-the-2020-nfl-draft/

You can also listen to the video breakdown - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKEGX50IXQA
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nfl computer picks against the spread week 1 2020 video

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nfl computer picks against the spread week 1 2020

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