How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)
I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example. First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500. Second, let’s make an important distinction: Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for. Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there. Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop. Determining the intrinsic value of an asset The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead. Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.” PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n} PV = present value C = cash flow per period n = number of payments i = interest rate G = growth rate The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate. C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS. The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters. I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years). I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%. This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence. Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar! I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down. Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%. So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds). Due diligence still has to occur Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company: -Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion. -What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here. -What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company. -Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut. -Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great. -Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break. So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in. Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out. You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value. You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them. A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are. Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history. If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts. Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations. I am available for questions in the comments
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
A state agency that works toward equality for women and girls issued a blistering report Monday outlining the ills associated with casinos, particularly as they relate to the sex trade...“Casinos bring more than just revenue. They bring a bachelor party culture,” said Khara Jabola-Carolus, executive director of the Hawaii State Commission on the Status of Women...
Nationally, a person being sex trafficked in a hotel/resort setting is forced, coerced, or intimidated to perform sex acts on an average of 5 to 10 customers per day. (p. 2) Sex trafficking is distinct from prostitution: sex trafficking is the means, prostitution, pornography and stripping are the ends. Both are relatively new problems in Hawaiʻi that became systematic after Western contact. (p. 2) According to law enforcement (Spotlight) data compiled by The Avery Center, there (is an estimate of) a total 18,375 sex trafficking victims in Honolulu...(that's a total of)...23,887,812 commercial sex acts per year performed by sex trafficking victims in Honolulu. (p. 3)
When police charged New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft with soliciting prostitution, the press said the police rescued sex slaves. "They were women who were from China, who were forced into sex slavery," said Trevor Noah on The Daily Show. We're told this happens all the time. It's bunk, says Reason Associate Editor Elizabeth Nolan Brown. In the Robert Kraft case, she points out, "They had all these big announcements at first saying they had busted up an international sex trafficking ring, implying these women weren't allowed to leave.” But now prosecutors acknowledge that there was no trafficking. The women were willing sex workers... Politicians tell us that thousands of children are forced into the sex trade. "Three-hundred thousand American children are at risk!" said Rep. Ann Wagner on the floor of Congress… ...celebrities...perpetuate the myth that sex slavery is rampant. "You can go online and buy a child for sex. It's as easy as ordering a pizza," says Amy Schumer. "Thousands of children are raped every day!" says comedian Seth Meyers...
There is something familiar about the tide of misinformation which has swept through the subject of sex trafficking in the UK: it flows through exactly the same channels as the now notorious torrent about Saddam Hussein's weapons. In the story of UK sex trafficking, the conclusions of academics who study the sex trade have been subjected to the same treatment as the restrained reports of intelligence analysts who studied Iraqi weapons – stripped of caution, stretched to their most alarming possible meaning and tossed into the public domain. There, they have been picked up by the media who have stretched them even further in stories which have then been treated as reliable sources by politicians, who in turn provided quotes for more misleading stories...
President Barack Obama has famously declared that "human trafficking" is "modern-day slavery." He's also said that it "is a crime that can take many forms." The second definition is a good deal more accurate. "Trafficking," in practice, is less a clear-cut crime than a call to moral panic. The vagueness of the definition allows or even encourages governments, organizations, and researchers to claim that there are tens of millions of trafficking victims worldwide on the basis of little more than hyperbolic guesses... According to Alison Bass, author of Getting Screwed: Sex Workers and the Law, "trafficking has become a new name for an old problem, which is largely teenage runaways." Young people who run away from abusive situations at home, and who sell sex to survive, are considered trafficking victims by default under many federal and state laws. This, despite the fact that hardly any teen runaways have pimps or traffickers, according to a John Jay College of Criminal Justice study. Most see sex work as the best way to support themselves on the street, given the limited legal and social service options available for children who run away from home. And most, Bass told me, do not travel out of their own town or city, much less out of the country...
Once More Unto the Breach: The Unified Field Hypothesis of PSTH + Stripe (or possibly, the paranoiac ramblings of an undermedicated madman), Part 2
Mis compas, mis amigos y amigas, fellow autists and retards of WSB, I return to you now with the second installation of my Big Crazy Idea about why Bill Ackman's SPAC, Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, and what is shaping up to be the most important company for the economic development of the internet, Stripe, could be teaming up to take steps in order to wrest back control of the financial system from the veritable freak show of private equity and investment banking, which I will collectively refer to as Big Capital. The previous post can be found here and serves as an introductory foray into institutional financial crime. If you thought that one was long, strap the fuck in, because we're going deep into the muck with our third eyes wide open.
Big Capital, Big Crime, and Rivers of Blood
This section will attempt to provide some historical context on the history of Big Capital with a particular focus on the inextricable links between intelligence agencies (mainly the Central Intelligence Agency and its predecessor, the Office of Strategic Services) and Wall Street, starting around the time of World War II. It will lean heavily on the work of Michael S. Judge, whose podcast Death is Just Around the Corner has become an integral part of my understanding of the nature of American imperialism, which has been largely scrubbed from the history books. It will also draw from excellent books including but not limited to Vincent Bevins' The Jakarta Method and Stephen Kinzer's The Brothers and Poisoner in Chief. In the interest of accessibility, I will be supplying Wikipedia articles for further reading, but with the caveat that Wikipedia itself cowtows to the American imperial project and should not be taken as an authoritative account of history. I think the best place to start this story is with Allen Dulles, the longest serving director of the CIA, and his brother John Foster Dulles, who was Dwight Eisenhower's Secretary of State. Before joining the federal government, the Dulles brothers worked for United Fruit Company, which is now known as Chiquita Brands International (yes, the 🍌 company), where John served as legal counsel and Allen was on the board of directors. The United Fruit Company was a key driver of the CIA-led 1954 Guatemalan coup that ousted the democratically elected Jacobo Arbenz and replaced him with the dictator Carlos Castillo Armas, which will be a recurring theme in this missive. Put a pin in this for now, because we have to backtrack a little further first. It is critical to understand that the CIA and the agencies that came before it are deeply rooted in the boy's club of Wall Street from the years between World War I and World War II, and that pipeline catapulted people like Prescott Bush (father of George H.W. Bush and grandfather of George W. Bush) to the highest levels of the American government. Most of these roaches skittered out of investment banks like Brown Brothers Harriman or law firms like Sullivan & Cromwell, both institutions that still stand to this day. Prescott Bush and the Dulles brothers were up to some real sketchy shit before, during, and after WWII, having business ties to German industrialists that helped finance Hitler's rise to power and helping Nazis launder money and transport looted art and valuables through European banks. Supreme Court Justice Arthur Goldberg even went so far to say that "The Dulles brothers were traitors." Prescott and the Dulles brothers were probably not literally card-carrying Nazis, but the model of fusing big business and central government, which the CIA was based on and adheres to up to this very day, is explicitly fascist when going off of the dictionary definition of the word (read: not using it as a proxy for "person I disagree with politically" as it's so often used today). Did you know that the CIA has an active venture capital operation called In-Q-Tel and that Palantir's only early investor besides Peter Thiel was one and the same? Now you do. In the last days and immediate aftermath of WWII, the intelligence agencies spearheaded an effort by the US government called Operation Paperclip, which was designed to save Nazi and Japanese scientists from the gallows and put them to work developing weapons programs in the US. Wernher von Braun, chief architect of the Saturn V 🚀 that sent Apollo to the 🌑? Operation Paperclip. Shiro Ishii, a man who was loading grenades full of plague bacteria and sewing babies together and shit in Manchukuo (Japanese-occupied China)? Operation Paperclip. At this point in the story, WWII is over and the USSR has become the Big Bad Mans of the time period from 1945 to 1991 that we collectively refer to as the Cold War. Unfortunately, the Cold War was not actually very cold, and instead took the shape of a seemingly endless series of proxy wars and regime change operations led by Western intelligence agencies attempting, with various degrees of success, to overthrow democratically elected leftists and appoint authoritarian leaders with the backing of weapons and money from the CIA. This is not an exhaustive list, but includes examples like the 1953 Iranian coup that overthrew Mohammad Mosaddegh and replaced him with Shah Pahlavi, the aforementioned 1954 Guatemalan coup, the mass killings in Indonesia that ultimately resulted in the removal of Sukarno and a 31 year military junta under Suharto, the 1973 Chilean coup that brought Augusto Pinochet to power, and both the Korean and Vietnam Wars, in which the greatest military in the world was epically pwned by a bunch of starving jungle fighters using slingshots and AK-47s. The underlying reason for a lot of this carnage, besides the stated goal of beating back the spectre of communism or whatever the fuck? Resources. Iran had oil, Chile had nationalized the copper mines that Big Capital needed to fuel the electronics boom, and both the Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent were fertile ground for growing opium, which was used to make the heroin the CIA trafficked all over the world and sold to buy weapons that they then gave to the dictators they propped up, sometimes using the bodies of dead soldiers as mules. Does any of this sound familiar and related to the current day? How about the overthrow of Evo Morales in Bolivia, which was applauded by Elon Musk, who wants cheap access to their copper mines so he can make batteries for his shitty cars? How about the Forever War in the Middle East, which has effectively turned Afghanistan into a narco-state? How about the endless revolving door between the Pentagon, defense contractors, and the rest of the federal government, as exemplified most recently by the nomination of Raytheon board member General Lloyd Austin to be Joe Biden's Secretary of Defense? That's right, you blue-pilled goldfish, the Democrats are not your friends either.
The Stripe and PSTH Angles
Alright, enough psychic assault for the moment. Let's talk about Stripe for a bit. As stated previously, Stripe is building the infrastructure that the internet economy runs on. The Collison brothers, those cheeky little leprechauns, seem like they're wired pretty differently than most of the money grubbing bug people that inhabit Silicon Valley. Take this clip of co-founder and CEO Patrick Collison talking about the nature of motivation (listen through to ~27:20 at least). Or this one of co-founder and president John Collison talking about the need to support small businesses who have been reamed by the pandemic and build Stripe bigger and better as a service to the small fish in the ocean (listen through to the end on this one). Bill Ackman is a signatory on the Giving Pledge, and as discussed in the previous post, is also not your typical Wall Street swamp monster. He remarried last year and has a kid that's a little over a year old by this point. He deeply understands that the finance game is rigged against the little guys, that Big Capital has wrapped its disgusting slimy tentacles all over the world, and is choking more life out of it every single day. Could it be that he wants to do whatever he can to stop the world his kid will grow up in from devolving further into some kind of Mad Max scenario? The order of operations for how PSTH is structured is flipped on its head from the way previous SPACs have been run by institutions like Goldman Sachs (remember, we hate them) with regard to sponsor compensation. Pershing Square isn't taking a thing until the investors in the SPAC see a 20% return, whereas most SPACs include clauses allowing the sponsors to snatch cheap warrants with their grubby little hands because they are run by unapologetic money pigs.
An Aside About CЯyptocurrency
I, like most of you, am way too stupid to understand how the fuck cЯypto actually works on a fundamental level, but I think it's pretty clear that the reason it has value at all is as a hedge against total economic societal collapse like we've been seeing most recently in places like Venezuela, which underwent inflation to the tune of nearly 54 million percent between 2016 and 2019. Hey, what the fuck is that Juan Guaido guy up to? Oh, he's a CIA sock puppet. It is interesting to note that Stripe used to support cЯypto but eliminated that functionality, at least directly, back in 2018. Patrick Collison used to talk about cЯypto frequently and would say things like this (take note of the date) but has been largely silent on the issue for years. I think it's possible that he and his brother have come around to thinking that while cЯypto is a heady big brain idea, it's too inaccessible for dummies like you and me, who just want to buy a cup of coffee without paying $20 in transaction fees. They could be trying to build a vanguard that would make such a thing unnecessary for a functioning society, a system that continues to run on dollars, euros, yen, and yuan. That, and the original idea for cЯypto came from another part of the bowels of the Deep State, the NSA. You know, that thing Edward Snowden revealed as spying on everyone all the time with the support of the tech giants, but we're mostly all cool with because hey, cat videos and free porn! I do have some suspicions about Snowden, being a former CIA contractor and all, and his insistence that privacy-minded folks use Tor, which is and always has been a project of the Department of Defense and intelligence agencies. If you, like me, used cЯypto to buy drugs on the dark net back in the heady days of 2015 when they were basically crime bucks, you're also probably on a watchlist somewhere at Langley.
Conclusion
If you've reached this point without your eyes rolling back in your head and starting to drool, I sincerely applaud you 👏👏👏. I hope that you've learned something new and are now thinking about what bigger brains than you and I have, like those of Bill Ackman and the Collisons, could be trying to put out there in the world, if a PSTH + Stripe union is truly in the cards. I do find it quite interesting to look at the list of Restricted Businesses at Stripe. It includes a lot of things that Ackman has historically and more recently placed in his sights as the targets of his wrath, like multi-level marketing schemes and pseudopharmaceuticals (Herbalife) and pornography (Pornhub versus the credit card companies). There's also things you can extrapolate outward from if you want to get real wacky and use looser definitions, like "gambling" and "get rich quick schemes" (i.e. Robinhood). Thank you for reading my brain ejaculation, and always remember: Big Brother is watching you. TLDR: Reining in the types of financial crime that have created this fucked up world we're all stuck in is imperative to building a future that is better and more equitable for people all around the world, not just in the United States. A merger of Stripe with PSTH could represent a gigantic leap forward for driving a sword into the heart of the beast of Big Capital. You could get in now instead of the alternative that the traditional IPO process provides, where the big institutions get the first crack at everything and leave table scraps for the rest of us to fight over. PSTH 🚀📈🚀📈🚀📈🚀📈
positions or ban
since I now have little piggies oinking away at me about positions, here you go. Roth IRA and Tastyworks. As stated in the first post, I intend to liquidate a large chunk of my mutual fund holdings in the IRA when the year end dividend goes out in a couple weeks and put that money into more PSTH shares.
Jan/12/2021 news: __ Gas prices could rise: ֏ vs $ __ Jailed for taking Azeri bribe __ How much will AM-AZ railway cost? __ COVID strain, vaccine, stats __ POW & borders __ Childbirth subsidy __ Seismic resistance __ IRS to monitor casinos __ Environmentalists to have voice __ Yezidi theater __ more
Your 11-minute Tuesday report in 2562 words.
gas prices could rise due to currency fluctuations
Russian gas price (at the border) had increased from $150 to $165 per 1000m3 in 2019. Although the Russian currency Ruble was devaluing against the Dollar, Armenia was/is paying for gas with Dollars. Since 2019, the Pashinyan administration has been trying to convince Russia to implement a different gas payment mechanism within the EAEU trade bloc. Making payments in Rubles instead of Dollars was one of the priorities: "We are constantly talking about high dollarization within the EAEU, but we still pay for Russian gas in dollars. Our proposal was that it would be more correct if we paid for gas in rubles, because I think it is more logical, also within the EAEU," said Pashinyan in early 2020. This idea was also shared by Vladimir Putin's personal adviser back in October 2018. It appears the EAEU has been working towards this goal lately. But meanwhile, Armenia has to pay for Russian gas in Dollars. With Armenian Dram devaluing against the Dollar, the pricing for consumers will likely be revised. Consumers pay 139 Drams per cubic meter. This was calculated in 2020 when $1 was 480 Drams. Today $1 = 520 Drams. Large consumers pay in Dollars and have their rates adjusted periodically, while small consumers (general public) pays in Drams. Armenia imports 2.2 billion m3 gas from Russia annually, at the price of $165 per 1000m3. 0.7 billion of it is consumed by the general public. Dram was devalued by 6.6% since November. This could prompt the internal gas company to raise the prices, including for the general public. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039886.html http://www.armbanks.am/en/2020/04/07/128024/ https://neftegaz.ru/en/news/energy/406887-armenia-should-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/
Public Council meets drone and robotics industry
The Public Council (linked to PM's office) held a meeting with engineers from the drone, robotics, AI, and nano-tech industries. They discussed ways to help the state to develop the military-industrial complex, drone production, aviation, and to bring their quality to international standards. https://factor.am/327477.html
former PACE MP sentenced to 4 years for taking bribes from Azerbaijan
An Italian court has concluded that Italian PACE representative Luca Volonte, who is the former head of the European People's Party, took €2.4 million in bribes from the Aliyev regime in 2012-2013. The bribe was handed over by Azerbaijan's PACE delegation leader Suleymanov. The scheme was coordinated by an Azeri lobbying firm based in Brussels. In return, the MP gave Azerbaijan favors during PACE and Italian Parliament sessions. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039927.html Tags: #caviar
POWs and searches
The search crews in Artsakh discovered bodies of 10 soldiers and 1 civilian in Jabrayil, Hadrut, and Sgnakh regions. The civilian has already been identified by his relatives. The cause of death is being investigated. Many bodies under the possession of the Armenian side are yet to be identified, while more bodies will likely be found during daily searches for the foreseeable future. Overall, 575 calls have been made by families who are looking for missing relatives, says the Russian humanitarian envoy in Artsakh. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039900.html , https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289293/ Human Rights Ombudsman Tatoyan once again criticized Azerbaijan for intentionally politicizing and delaying the POW swap mission. "It is against international laws to file felony cases and arrest POWs because that's a form of a prohibited punishment. Azerbaijan is also hiding the true number of POWs." The Ombudsman has noted that Armenian residents in Tegh, Vorotan, and several other bordering villages have lost access to 2500 hectares of farming lands due to border changes. (some lands that were internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan were given to Azerbaijan after the war). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039933.html , https://factor.am/327226.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204175
POW discussions: general prosecutor meets Azeri counterpart
Chief prosecutor Arthur Davtyan and his Azeri counterpart were invited to Russia. The three sides held a conversation about the establishment of future contacts in the field of international law and other related topics. Prosecutor Davtyan mentioned the importance of implementing the November 9th statement about the return of POWs, "which will serve as an assurance for implementation of other [trade unblocking] issues." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039953.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039972.html
how much will a new railway network cost?
Azeri economists believe it will cost around $430 million to build a railway network connecting Kars(TR)-Nakhijevan(AZ)-Meghri(AM)-Zangelan(AZ)-Baku(AZ). Overall, if you add Gyumri between Kars and Nakhijevan, it could cost about $434 million. Economists believe Armenia can use this network to connect with Russia via two directions: Gyumri-Nakhijevan-Meghri-Baku (southern trip), or Ijevan-Ghazakh-Baku (northern trip). https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289313/
rumors & rebuttals: traitors are not selling Azeri juice in Armenia
Telegram channel Mediaport circulated rumors that "Azeri Sandora juice is being sold in Armenia". The misinformation was picked up by several outlets and caused confusion among the buyers. Fact-checkers contacted Sandora's local importer who said the producer is a Ukrainian company that sells its product in multiple post-Soviet republics, so they have one unified tag that contains information both in Armenian and Azeri languages. https://fip.am/14469
Pricing for 43 commonly-consumed items was examined by the consumer protection agency in Artsakh. 12 became more expensive, 5 cheaper, 26 remained the same. Onion +25%, cottege cheese +6%, milk +6%, gloves +5%, ..., pear -12%, rice -1%, eggs -1%, butter -1%. Several dairy product prices went up, and since Artsakh has dairy companies that own dominant market share, the consumer agency will launch an investigation to see if there was price-fixing. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039946.html
seismic resistance assessment for old buildings
A significant portion of Armenia's large apartment complex buildings were built half a century ago. They may not be seismically safe, considering Armenia's geolocation. After the 1988 earthquake, some buildings remain populated despite being deemed highly unsafe. Many other buildings have safety irregularities. It is necessary to assess the situation, so the Urban Development Committee has drafted a bill "Methodology for assessing the priority of increasing the seismic resistance of buildings and structures". https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039887.html
IRS will closely monitor gambling industry / RFID chips & servers
IRS press release: gambling facilities and online betting services will be more closely monitored. We worked with international experts to digitize the gambling industry and bring it on par with international standards. All gambling machines and platforms operating in Armenia will be connected to one server which will be connected to a monitoring Center. All betting and winning transactions will be recorded. The Center will also install RFID microchips in casinos to monitor the movement of chips, the chips purchased or won by players, in real-time. The government's Digital Council has approved the bill, which is yet to be discussed and voted in the Parliament. The goal is to be able to monitor the financial flows in this sector and to estimate the actual revenues. It will combat money laundering. (BHK skipping a Parliament session due to "COVID" in 3, 2, 1, ... /joke) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039915.html
new "public council" will advise Nature Ministry
Nature Minister Romanos met several environmental organizations and environmentalists and discussed the creation of a new Council, which will advise him on nature protection issues, help draft bills and roadmaps, work with other environmental organizations and NGOs. The Council is accepting applications. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039896.html
large quantities of illegally-cut trees were busted
Context: An incident happened last week between parents of drafted soldiers and military officials at a military unit. The parents wanted assurances that their sons would be safe after being deployed on Artsakh borders. The parents wanted to know why Armenian soldiers are still being sent to Artsakh "despite the November 9th statement saying Armenians should withdraw from Artsakh." During the confrontation, an incident happened between a military official and a journalist. The official struck the camera and instructed it to be turned off. Several media outlets released a message condemning the officer for hindering the journalist's work. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039973.html
infrastructure upgrades
Four settlements in Kotayk province (Yeghvard, Nor Gegh, Aragel, Zovuni) have a newly renovated irrigation pipeline as part of a govt subsidy program. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204202
today in history
1932: First Yerevan tramway began operating in Yerevan 1951: The UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide was implemented. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039885.html
get your free colonoscopy today
The National Center for Oncology has purchased the latest generation tools and will perform a free and enjoyable colonoscopy for residents over the age of 45, for the next 6 months. The goal is to detect suspicious growths at an early stage. It's the third most common cancer among adults in the world. It has become more common in Armenia in the past decade. When detected early, it can be fully treated. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039911.html
... we lift some of the restrictions! "Aye, aye, Captain!" "I can't hear you!" "The rule that limits attendance to non-commercial gatherings to no more than 60 people has been removed. All other safety requirements remain in place," said a Healthcare official. "You can enter Armenia via air or land by presenting negative COVID test results that were taken within the past 3 days. If you don't, you will be tested at the airport and will need to self-isolate until the results arrive." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039931.html
Armenia will soon import COVID vaccines
Healthcare Ministry: we are negotiating with multiple entities. The first batch of vaccines will arrive between late-January and mid-February. We are negotiating with producers whose vaccines have passed the necessary tests: Sputnik V, Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. In the first phase, the vaccines will be given to the most vulnerable 10% of the population. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039921.html
Sputnik V vaccine has already been tested in Armenia
Healthcare Ministry: no complications were reported by the 15 patients, including Minister Torosyan. The often-discussed "skin redness" in the injection area has not been observed, either. The first injection gave a 91.4% efficiency. The second increased it to 94%. Even if the vaccine doesn't fully prevent the infection, it can save the patient's life by making the case mild (is that right??). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039925.html
the new COVID strain: good news, bad news
Doctor Davit Melik-Nubaryan: the version of COVID that mutated in the UK will eventually reach Armenia. Preliminary data shows that those who have already been infected and gained immunity from the original COVID will be immune to this new strain. It is believed that the immunity will last 6-12 months for the majority. The good news is that the new strain isn't more deadly and doesn't result in heavier cases. The bad news is that it spreads a lot faster. The Healthcare system could be overloaded again. The vaccines against the original strain will likely work against the new one. Pharmaceutical companies may have to modify the vaccines, but it will only take weeks. Closing borders with the UK won't be helpful to prevent it. We may already have the new strain. We need to develop a new strategy from the ground up. Viruses mutate all the time. It's part of the evolution. Sometimes they cause more severe symptoms, sometimes lesser. From the evolutionary and survival standpoint, viruses want to cause less severe symptoms for the host so they can have a chance to spread wider. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039856.html
Armenian scientists will study the COVID strain
CDC chief Bakunts: Armenia will have the ability to study the genetic mutations of the coronavirus. Active work is underway to invest in research resources. Meanwhile, we can submit a virus sample to a WHO laboratory to conduct a study for us. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039962.html
families with newborn children receive mortgage subsidy
450 families have so far taken advantage of a government subsidy program that helps with purchasing apartments. ֏526 million will be paid as part of this 2020-2023 program. It is part of a recent initiative to boost the birthrate. Two other aid programs went into effect in mid-2020. Provincial families received a downpayment subsidy equalling 5% of the total price. Another one subsidizes insurance payments. The same family can apply for all three programs, and there is no age limit for parents. https://factor.am/327385.html
diaspora-government cooperation expands: iGorts
iGorts is a program that recently recruited 48 highly skilled diasporan Armenians to visit Armenia and work at 19 various government agencies. Three more volunteers have arrived today to begin their work: Shila Palyan from Canada, Zaven Ayvazyan from Russia, and Anahit Mikaelyan from Cyprus. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204211
Yerevan to install 32 more elevators in apartment complexes
Arabkir district is the next recipient. Hundreds of units were installed in 2020. They replace the decades-old elevators that have become dangerous and poopy. The new elevators come equipped with running water and flush so you can drain your crap /s. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039954.html
have you been buying stuff right and left lately?
...because trade turnover increased by +34%, and the number of printed receipts by +7%, during this year's New Year's holidays. ֏91 billion was spent between December 29-31, which is ֏23 billion more. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204195
would your majesty be pleased to take a salt bath?
Nerqin Getashen will have a halotherapy "salt bath" center to help alleviate certain conditions. It's the first in Gegharquniq province. There will also be rooms for aromatherapy (oils), ogyxenotherapy (oxygen cocktails), and massage. The owner claims it helps boost immunity and alleviates breathing, allergy, and insomnia issues (take the claim with a bath of salt). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039974.html
first Yezidi theater to open in Armenia
"шəp' y əBин" or "war and love" will be the first performance in a newly opened Yezidi theater in Ejmiatsin. It's part of a «Եզդիների կողքին» cultural initiative. The crew had planned a major performance about Yezidi national legend but the 44-day war began and some were drafted. The crew ended up performing the "шəp' y əBин" during the war. It's about the importance of Yezidis in Armenia, and their love for the country. The January 17th performance will be dedicated to Yezidis who died fighting. The performers aren't professional actors but they received acting training on-the-fly. "It seems to work because their enthusiasm is great. A very good team has been formed," said the producer. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039941.html
Aram Khachaturian House-Museum will resume "Musical Thursdays"
Netherlands college will donate large quantities of school supplies
Several thousands of desks, chairs, furniture pieces, computers, lockers, etc. are being loaded in containers to be shipped to Armenia. The Hermann Wesselink college is renovating its building with new items so they decided to donate the old stuff to Armenian kids. This will be enough to equip 15 provincial schools. https://factor.am/327135.html
How Hong Kong's demise represents a greater problem facing a rising China
Since the Hong Kong government introduced its highly controversial extradition bill last year, the wealthy cosmopolitan city of Hong Kong has been thoroughly wrecked by mass protests. At its peak in mid-2019, 2 million Hong Kongers marched in the streets against the government led by Carrie Lam. In its turmoil, large tracts of Hong Kong have seen battles fought between a now largely vanquished protest movement, and its once revered Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). Its foremost legislature occupied and vandalised by protestors, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) subtly threatening the city by garrisoning troops in neighboring Shenzhen stadiums as well as later on inside Hong Kong, A leading university occupied by desperate protestors under siege by police among many other watershed moments which have left a significant imprint on the Pearl of the Orients' history. It's fair to say that despite widespread anger at Carrie Lam for effectively destroying Hong Kong's political freedoms after the passage of its National Security Bill, the protest movement has largely run out of steam through its own shear fatigue. Nothing it seems, not the horror at Yuen Long when the mobs attacked bystanders, not the massive peaceful protests, not the vigilant and perseverent young protestors could seemingly stop the Chinese government in blatantly violating the agreement it signed with the UK when it handed over the territory. When one fights for democracy and human rights, its preferable they don't stop in their brave fight, right? Communism didn't collapse in eastern europe in a day afterall, nor did Taiwan and South Korea magically become free countries promptly. But in this case, the people of Hong Kong didn't have a chance to succeed, not with the PLA on their doorstep and an increasingly nationalistic regime which stood completely behind Carrie Lam even as they didn't invite her to decide on the national security law. But while one may grieve and weep over what was a great dazzling and culturally vibrant city, the free people of Hong Kong may have the last laugh. The sole reason why Hong Kong is such an economic powerhouse is how free the city is compared to China. It is ranked third in the ease of doing business, a number which is likely to trend badly in 2020 onwards. It didn't persecute members of Falun Gong, it was more open to the exotic nature of Feng Shui architecture, people were once allowed to advocate for Hong Kong's independence. What drove Hong Kong's economy since the day the British settled was the ability for a significant number of well educated, entrepreneurial and industrious citizens to live and work with none of the constraints mainland China imposes. It's why Macau is such a hub of gambling, and why since the handover, Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp grew as a reaction in the face of China's authoritarian shift. Hong Kong was a sanctuary for many Chinese from the terrors which lurked in Mao's China. When one removes the causation of Hong Kong's prosperity, you effectively destroy the city's identity and its economy. So what is the last laugh for the people of Hong Kong? Leaving the city entirely. It may sound odd, but already millions of Hongkongers have made it clear that they won't tolerate the Chinese government, last year a survey found 42% of Hongkongers said they would emigrate if they had the chance, with 23% already having made a plan to do so. The UK government has made clear it wants HK citizens to immigrate. So much so that they're now handing out a passport a minute to Hong Kong citizens. It now appears that China has inadvertently created a exodus of potentially massive proportions, like Germany before the Berlin Wall, Hongkongers are leaving with significant haste. For many, this was a predictable fate. Hong Kong was never always going to be free, this was a city which was once segregated by the British, and the handover agreement made it clear that in 2047 the city would be annexed. But this exodus represents a pressing issue which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been contending with since it ever existed. Educated people, rich people and productive people all hate Communism!. Well... in this case China isn't Communist, they're SINOs (Socialist In Name Only), but you get what I mean. The Hong Kong exodus is going to be a tragic fate for the once great city, however its struggle represents a greater issue which China grips with but never wants to admit. The West is going to have an influx of exceptionally entrepreneurial, industrious and well educated citizens who care deeply about freedom and democracy, and that's the lost talent and capital which Beijing desperately needs. Nothing scares the Chinese governing elite more than falling behind the US technologically. They saw the Cold War and how as Reagan said, the "Goliath of totalitarianism will be brought down by the David of the microchip", they know for a fact that technological growth is king and you need well educated citizens. That's why they're attempting the near impossible: oppressing a billion educated and middle class citizens but this time with AI, mass facial recognition, fervent nationalism, personality cult, omnipresent state control and social credit scores. They're trying to cultivate the perfect obedient citizens while holding the same human capital which allowed the US to economically and scientifically crush the USSR who had achieved it through the SDI, arms race, Reagan Doctrine and 20 years of communist stagnation in the face of a booming West. If China can achieve the perfect obedient and productive citizen they ideally won't need another Tiananmen. At the end of the day, a nation is built on the back of its educated citizenry. Weapon systems are only as good as your engineers, scientists and businessmen. The kinds of people who live in Hong Kong but are inevitably going to leave it number perhaps upwards of 1-3 million citizens, already 250,000 have acquired passports and polling indicates that number will continue to grow as Beijing's oppression rises. However in the face of China's ambitions, the US is on the verge of triggering a second space race with Spacex and a number of other Western companies dramatically reducing launch costs and constructing the infrastructure which could have immeasurable strategic consequences decades from now. Sure the SDI was a bit of a joke even at the time with its ambitions, but Reagan was hell-bent on it and it scared the crap outta the USSR who knew the implications. Today the US missile defense system is the best in the world after 40 years of continual investment but optimised for rogue states like North Korea or potentially Iran, however if launch costs can decrease further (as they inevitably will) the Pentagon is probably going to exploit this to the maximum with more spy satellites (something which the US has a gigantic advantage in already) or even a mini SDI program or something which will scare China. NASA is hoping to launch a manned Moon mission by 2025 (officially still 2024 but it's definitely a year afterwards at least). There is no indication the Artemis program is going to be axed, and from a strategic standpoint neither should it. Given the unprecedented private investment the program has and also the Lunar Gateway, the US inevitably will land on the Moon again within the decade, while simultaneously waging a renewed cold war with China. So what does China have to show for itself technologically? Well at the moment there are lots of things China is desperate to show off in, but nothing so far indicates its at parity with the US yet. The US has built nearly 500 fifth generation stealth multirole all-weather fighters (F-35), China has a bare handful and its likely inferior. The EU and the US have an enormous domination of the civil aviation market with Airbus and Boeing respectively, while China's Comac is minuscule in comparison with no chance of global market penetration compared to the staggering power and expertise Boeing and Airbus have. China is still 20-30 years behind the US in submarines but closing, its military has virtually no fighting experience in decades unlike the US and in space exploration China leaves a lot to be desired. Sure, they're planning and have been successful in launching rovers and probes on the Moon's surface, but so did the Soviets and the US in the mid 1960s. Their space station project is compared to Mir in the 80s, and they're hoping for a manned Moon mission within the decade but very little has surfaced in detail. China has been trying its best to harness its human capital to the maximum extent possible, but even with the lackluster Congress the US has languished under for the better part of a decade, the US has succeeded in creating reusable rockets, cheaper batteries and landed a car sized rover on Mars with a highly complex landing process and shall repeat that in 2021 with the Perseverance Rover. Don't get me wrong, China will try to do everything it can to develop advanced technologies and with little moral constraint like how a Chinese scientist last year controversially altered the genome of an unborn child, and they'll do so out of its own regime's desperation to survive when its economic growth stagnates further. But the US is still leading by a massive margin, and despite zero intention and limited intervention by Washington policy makers this past decade, a bunch of tech wizzes across the US may have inadvertently triggered a second space race. TL;DR: China may continue to look down upon Hong Kong with glaring contempt and despise its well educated population who had a taste of freedom, but Hong Kong's dazzling economy represents a China that might have been. Sure China's universities and scientific institutions continue to grow in strength, but it will never compete with the West on a strategic level until China stops oppressing its own citizens. Either that, or China succeeds in creating the perfect obedient and productive citizen. This is my first ever effortpost, so I hope it's up to scratch :)
Trump has been in Russia's pocket a long time here is more reading for those interested in the history. Trump was over a billion in debt and the Russians bailed him out. ► Trump was first compromised by the Russians in the 80s. In 1984, the Russian Mafia began to use Trump real estate to launder money. In 1987, the Soviet ambassador to the United Nations, Yuri Dubinin, arranged for Trump and his then-wife, Ivana, to enjoy an all-expense-paid trip to Moscow to consider possible business prospects. Only seven weeks after his trip, Trump ran full-page ads in the Boston Globe, the NYT and WaPO calling for, in effect, the dismantling of the postwar Western foreign policy alliance. The whole Trump/Russian connection started out as laundering money for the Russian mob through Trump's real estate, but evolved into something far bigger. ► In 1984, David Bogatin — a convicted Russian mobster and close ally of Semion Mogilevich, a major Russian mob boss — met with Trump in Trump Tower right after it opened. Bogatin bought five condos from Trump at that meeting. Those condos were later seized by the government, which claimed they were used to launder money for the Russian mob. (NY Times, Apr 30, 1992) ► [Felix Sater](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felix_Sater } is a Russian-born former mobster, and former managing director of NY real estate conglomerate Bayrock Group LLC located on the 24th floor of Trump Tower. He is a convict who became a govt cooperator for the FBI and other agencies. He grew up with Michael Cohen--Trump's former "fixer" attorney. Cohen's family owned El Caribe, which was a mob hangout for the Russian Mafia in Brooklyn. Cohen had ties to Ukrainian oligarchs through his in-laws and his brother's in-laws. Felix Sater's father had ties to the Russian mob. This goes back more than 30 years. ► Trump was $4 billion in debt after his Atlantic City casinos went bankrupt. No U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in through Bayrock (mentioned above). Bayrock was run by two investors: Tevfik Arif, a Kazakhstan-born former Soviet official who drew on bottomless sources of money from the former Soviet republic; and Felix Sater, a Russian-born businessman who had pleaded guilty in the 1990s to a huge stock-fraud scheme involving the Russian mafia. Bayrock partnered with Trump in 2005 and poured money into the Trump organization under the legal guise of licensing his name and property management. ► In July 2008, the height of the housing bust, Trump sold a mansion in Palm Beach for $95 million to Dmitry Rybolovlev, a Russian oligarch. Trump had purchased it four years earlier for $41.35 million. The sale price was nearly $54 million more than Trump had paid for the property. Again, this was the height of the recession when all other property had plummeted in value. ► Semion Mogilevich was the brains behind the Russian Mafia. Mogilevich operatives have been using Trump real estate for decades to launder money. That means Russian Mafia operatives have been part of his fortune for years. Many of them owned condos in Trump Towers and other properties. They were running operations out of Trump's crown jewel. ► So many Russians bought Trump apartments at his developments in Florida that the area became known as Little Moscow. The developers of two of his hotels were Russians with significant links to the Russian mob. The late leader of that mob in the United States, Vyacheslav Kirillovich Ivankov, was living at Trump Tower ► According to a Bloomberg investigation (3/16/2017) into Trump World Tower, “a third of units sold on floors 76 through 83 by 2004 involved people or limited liability companies connected to Russia and neighboring states.” ► In 2013, Federal agents busted an “ultraexclusive, high-stakes, illegal poker ring” run by Russian gangsters out of Trump Tower. They operated card games, illegal gambling websites, and a global sports book and laundered more than $100 million. A condo directly below one owned by Trump reportedly served as HQ for a “sophisticated money-laundering scheme” connected to Semion Mogilevich. ► The Russia Mafia is part and parcel of Russian intelligence. Russia is a mafia state. That is not a metaphor. Putin is head of the Mafia. So the fact that they have been operating out of the home of the president of the United States is deeply disturbing. ► Rudy Giuliani famously prosecuted the Italian mob while he was a federal prosecutor, yet the Russian mob was allowed to thrive. Now he's deeply entwined in the business of Trump and Russian oligarchs. Giuiani appointed Semyon Kislin to the NYC Economic Development Council in 1990, and the FBI described Kislin as having ties to the Russian mob. Of course, it made good political sense for Giuliani to get headlines for smashing the Italian mob. ► A lot of Republicans in Washington are implicated. Boatloads of Russian money went to the GOP--often in legal ways. The NRA got as much as $70M from Russia, then funneled it to the GOP. The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee lead by McConnell got millions from Leonard Blavatnik. In the 90s, the Russians began sending money to top GOP leaders, like Speaker of the House Tom Delay. Craig Unger's book alleges that most of the GOP leadership has been compromised by RU money. ► At the Cityscape USA’s Bridging US and the Emerging Real Estate Markets Conference held in Manhattan, on September 9, 10, and 11, 2008, Donald Trump Jr. was frank about the tide of Russian money supporting the family business, saying "...And in terms of high-end product influx into the US, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets." ► Eric Trump told golf reporter James Dodson in 2014 that the Trump Organization was able to expand during the financial crisis because “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.” ► It's believed that Russian oligarchs co-signed Trump’s Deutsche bank loans. ► Alex Navalny has insinuated Paul Manafort passed along Trump's campaign information to the Kremlin via Kilimnik. In a 25-minute Youtube video (Russian with subtitles), Navalny shows footage of Deripaska with Russian deputy prime minister Sergei Prikhodko on his yacht in Norway in August 2016. Based on that footage, he alleges that information about the Trump campaign must have passed between the two. Senate Intelligence Report I believe concluded Paul gave the information to known Russian asset but that we have no proof this asset gave the information to the Kremlin? Im hoping someone in the comments has some more on the Paul Manafort accusation to perhaps clear this bullet up in a future edit. Trump now gleefully takes cues from Putin: ► Trump went against American intelligence on North Korean missiles. He told the FBI he didn't believe their intelligence because Putin told him otherwise. “I don't care, I believe Putin" ► Trump met in secret with Putin at the G20 summit in November 2018, without note takers. 19 days later, he announced a withdrawal from Syria. ► Trump refused to enforce sanctions legally codified into law - and in some cases reversed standing sanctions on Russian companies. ► He has denounced his own intelligence agencies in a press conference with Putin on election meddling - and publicly endorsed Putin's version of events. ► Demanded Russia get invited back into G7 ► Pushed the CIA to give American intelligence to the Kremlin. ► Withdrew from the Open Skies treaty EDIT - First want to say thanks for taking the time to read the post. Please take the time to also VOTE this election. Also thank you various users for the rewards and support. On to actual edits :) Firstly I've removed the link to Trump / Russian bounties allegations. Which was the last point in the post originally due to its lack of factual evidence. Second I've changed a few points wording. Third I've added a new bullet at the end that was passed a long to me yesterday by another user in another thread about Trump and his campaign manager. Fourth I'd like to point out that this post is a collection of points from various other users in other threads and I personally don't want to take any credit for this post as I'm just carrying the torch with this post of several users before me who compiled many of these points.
What Is The Minimum Age To Gamble Legally In The UK? In the UK, you need to be at least 18 to gamble legally, whether that is online or live. Gaming establishments, including online casinos and sportsbooks, are legally obligated to confirm that customers are at least 18 years old by requesting ID and, if necessary, other supporting documents. The gambling sector just can’t stay out of the headlines at the moment. But it’s not all positive news, as Westminster looks primed to make sweeping changes to the UK’s gambling laws. The top civil servant at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport now says a long-awaited inquiry into UK gambling laws is 'not imminent'. The Gambling Commission has today announced new rules which online operators must follow to make gambling safer and fairer. The new rules, which follow an open consultation, will ensure operators verify customers’ age and identity details faster which will benefit consumers. Safer for children. Until now, online gambling businesses have been allowed 72 hours to carry out age verification 22nd October 2019. Changes to gambling laws needed as our report into online gaming reveals children’s gambling fears . Home With 93% of children in the UK playing video games, the Children’s Commissioner is today calling for new rules to tighten up gambling laws and to address the worries children have expressed about how they feel out of control of their spending on online games Anyone who is involved to any material extent in the provision of gambling, or gambling software, may be committing an offence in the UK if they are not correctly licensed or if they cannot take advantage of one of the limited range of exemptions in the legislation. Software suppliers, games suppliers, sportsbook platforms and certain other B2B suppliers may all be potentially licensable. That said, non-gambling services are generally carved out of this wide net – payment processing UK online gambling laws date back to the Gambling Act of 2005. The act legalized internet betting and designated the UK Gambling Commission, replacing the Gaming Board. So, all at once, both land-based and online gambling was wrapped up in a neat little regulatory package. The Commission set up licensing and regulation guidelines, explicitly The UK Gambling Commission was set up under the Gambling Act of 2005. This act was a much-needed overhaul of UK gambling laws and regulations. The government gave the UKGC the power to oversee the entire UK gambling industry. It’s duties, among other things, include: Issuing licences to UK casinos, bookmakers, and other gambling operators, both online and offline. Enforcing regulations and The UK gambling laws have been getting stricter and stricter as each year comes. This is because problem gambling and underage gambling is quite common in the UK. The changes to gambling laws have seen many top online gaming sites such as William Hill and Coral issued hefty fines by the UK Gambling Commission. The […] Furthermore, businesses have struggled to remain compliant – with online gambling firms Betway and Caesars Entertainment UK both paying over £10m for breaching AML and problem gambling laws. Throughout the year, a number of emergency laws were enacted that set the course for broader changes in the future.
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