College Football Best Bets - This Weekend's Best CFB Bets

Tennessee is now 3-0 and it has been a long time since anybody associated with the volunteer football team has been able to say that. This is Florida week and in my opinion the most important week of the year. Not just because it is Florida, not just because it is the first SEC game of the year, but this is the first big boy football game that counts (Sorry Virginia Tech).
The perception that Tennessee has with the Vegas sharp has not diminished when looking at the talent on the field, the issues lie with scheme and identity. Especially on offense. The defense has some issues but the sharps feel as if this the Shoop feeling out period and that the defense will only get better. There were 8 sharps who I find placing wagers, and as many of you would expect, all of them except one have chosen Florida to cover. Not much buffer to go through today because many of them had plenty to say.
The sportschatplace write up is listed at the top of the thread which has a brief write up and prediction on the site.
Let’s begin.
Florida (3-0) vs Tennessee (3-0)
Opening Line: -8 Tennessee
Current Line: -6.5 Tennessee
Opening Total: 45
Current Total: 43.5

• Sharp A (0-1-0)

W1:Tenn Cover (L)
W2: Pass
W3: N/A
This sharp was one of the first to make a bet on Sunday at the Wynn as soon as current spreads had been released. He said no matter what the spread was, if it was outside of one traditional score he would take the underdog. The reason being is that the vols have dominated the game the past two years to simply hand over the win to the gators. The same could happen again honestly, or in 2016, let the gators go up 17 before deciding to wake up. Something is up with Tennessee though and this sharp believes the players on offense are confused about philosophy. The vols have been talking about spread offense and pace the past couple of years and wearing on teams. He thinks they have lost this identity that would actually benefit them due to their depth on defense. He also thinks Butch Jones puts too many teams on a pedestal behind closed doors and that creates a mindset in a team that it is OK to lose to good teams. That needs to be broken. With that being said Tennessee’s talent if with the injuries are 11 points better than Florida, and he sees Tennessee getting a win, but Florida covers. Vols win 18-13.
Top Plays (3-4-0)
VTech (-11) over East Carolina
Texas A&M (-5.5) over Arkansas
Washington (-9) over Arizona
Nebraska (-7) over Northwestern

• Sharp B (1-2-0)

W1: Over (L)
W2: Vols Cover (W)
W3: Vols Cover (L)
This sharp has backed off a bit on his favor for Tennessee. He just cannot trust what this offense has to bring to the table. The players are absolutely there to be explosive, but they want to try to use finesse in the run blocking scheme when they actually just have a bunch straight forward maulers as offensive linemen. Thomas is probably the most athletic lineman and probably would have graded out as the best run blocker on the team last game, but his pass protection needs serious work. The offense also looks unprepared which tells me two things, either they are not practicing, or there play book is so expanded in practice but condensed in games, it has taken away valuable reps on plays that they actually use. It is just bad coaching. The gators are coming, and best believe and reigns that had been placed on the gators are coming off. This sharp expects Florida to have 5-7 sacks based on the previous games both teams have played. He does believe Tennessee will be able to run the ball a little bit, but if Butch Jones goes into this game fearing the secondary like he did last year, Florida will not need a late game miracle to win this game. Also, the defense need not be concerned. This defense is built to withstand some blows. The second linebacker will no longer be dynamic, but they do not need to be. The loss of Sutton is bad, but the freshman was arguably the best defensive back on the entire field after a couple of hiccups. The vols should win this game by 7-10 but they will not Florida wins. 16-7. His play is Florida moneyline (+230)
Top Plays (6-4-1) Iowa (-13) Over Rutgers West Virgina (-7) over BYU Ole Miss (-7) over UGA

• Sharp C (0-2-0)

W1: Over (L)
W2: Pass
W3: Over (L)
He started off by saying Florida will not run away with this game because their offense is not great. Even with the injuries to both sides of the ball, he would take Tennessee’s defense over Florida’s offense. The same goes for when Tennessee has the ball. This is why you build depth and if neither team has, they were not going to be very good anyways. Sutton will be a big loss, but he expects Justin Martin to step in nicely. There is something to be said about someone’s play when they are not fighting to play or stay on the field. This sharp was a big believer in Tennessee provided Kamara got more work, and while this did happen, it was not enough for him. He is convinced that Kamara is probably the best football player on the team. He is appalled at how the offense uses all of its weapons and it looks like Butch Jones is trying to win recruiting battles on the field of play and that just cannot happen. Butch Jones is not only micromanaging his players, but he is micromanaging his staff, another thing that cannot happen. If you do not trust your coaching staff, go find someone else, plenty of people would love that money and opportunity. Lastly, whoever their strength and conditioning coach is should be relieved of his duties immediately. He has this team ill-equipped to use most of their natural talents. All of this points to Butch Jones being the issue. Florida will be ready, and they will be cocky, and they should also win this game. This sharps play is the under, but his score prediction was Florida wins 23-17.
Top Plays (6-6-0)
Nebraska (-7) over Northwestern
California (+4) over Arizona St.
Auburn (+3.5) over LSU

• Sharp D (0-1-0)

W1: Tennessee Cover (L)
W2: Pass
W3: Pass
He had nothing to say about Florida offense vs Tennessee defense. Not much to see there. Tennessee should win that battle decidedly. Tennessee offense vs Florida defense is where this game will be won and/or lost. Florida’s defense is very good, and in this sharps opinion, probably the best that Tennessee will see this year. Florida’s best attribute is the amount of patience that their coaching staff have. They will gladly play the field position game and bet on one of their athletes to beat yours once or twice to create a score. I expect much of the same. Florida has a committee of running backs that they can use. Their receivers are explosive, but this sharp doesn’t believe that there are any that just put all sorts of fear in you. But then again, someone always comes up to be a Tennessee killer, his bet is on Callaway. Now to this Tennessee team and their real issues. Something is happening behind closed doors, that very few know. It may not even be with the players, but something is definitely going on. Tennessee fans should hope the coaching staff has been hiding things and if that’s the case they should win by two scores if not more for the pain and suffering. The offense has zero creativity. This sharp acknowledges that it shouldn’t be an issue, but it is also 100 percent predictable down to the play and side the ball is going to. High school coaches start the game with a trick play, college coaches throw one in on 2nd and 7 when their team needs a boost. This team needs a boost, I hear of players talking to each other and getting in each other’s faces, but what are the coaches doing? Where are they? Do they practice? Until then I think Florida will win 22-17. His play is the under and Florida cover.
Top picks (8-4-0) Nebraska (-7) over Northwestern Ole Miss (-7) over UGA Washington (-9) over Arizona Tulsa (-14) over Fresno
Sharp E (1-0-0) W1: Appalachian St. Cover (W) W2: Pass W3: N/A
This is the make or break game for Tennessee. Win, and this sharp believes something would have been righted on the ship, lose and it could completely fall apart. Tennessee has no business losing this game from a talent standpoint. Florida is loaded on defense, but the experience Tennessee brings back along with their defense should allow them put up 20-25 points and get a win. The problem is Tennessee has not shown it can put up 20-25 points on its own. There really is no reason for this. This is a good football team, and the coaches need to realize this. The lack of focus on offense is absolutely astonishing. Rarely do they get a play when all 5 linemen are handling their assignments. The real problem is practice. Whether it is in shells, just helmets, 7-on-7 (which is well known Tennessee does not do), etc. This team has the look of a team who does not practice. What are they working on so much that they cannot execute in the game. My guess would be redzone offense since they are pretty good there, but you have to get to the redzone. Everyone wants to do matchups of offense vs defense and that is great, but the real matchup is what Butch Jones going to do when Jim McElwain forces his hand. It looks like he may just mail it in and run Hurd off tackle. Butch Jones needs to win this game. No other top coach is afraid to get a little disrespectful when it comes to big games. This coach is too nice and will not trust others to get the job. He better realize what he has. With that being said, I think the players are over it, and they should be. Vols win and cover 20-13.
Top picks (3-3-0)
Washington (-9) over Arizona UNLV (-14) over Idaho Nebraska (-7) over Northwestern Florida St (-6) over South Florida Michigan St (-5) over Wisconsin

• Sharp F (0-1-0)

W1:No Play
W2: VT cover (L)
W3: Pass
This sharp did not trust the coaching last week, and doesn’t trust them this week. Their offensive philosophy of this whole passing game/ run game coordinator crap is just a good way for allowing Butch Jones to step in and takeover and do things exactly how he wants to do them. Debord is a willing scapegoat and will probably be relieved of his duties in order to save Butch’s job. Debord gets too much flack because guess what, these veterans on his teams aren’t the players he recruited. They were recruited to play fast, now that they are all available to play, Tennessee is playing slowing than ever with too much emphasis on the Jalen Hurd run game. He then went on to say Lamar Jackson seemingly misses as many deep throws as Josh Dobbs, but they have to let him throw intermediate routes. Pass blocking needs to get better, but this sharp thinks if the vols want to, they can take advantage early of Florida trying to get away with only rushing 4. At the same time Tennessee needs to make Florida very uncomfortable on offense. Send pressure and do it often. Justin Martin will have a big game. Vols win 17-13. The under is his play.
Top Picks (5-4-0)
Ole Miss (-7) over Georgia
Michigan St. (-5) over Wisconsin
Florida St. (-6) over South Florida

• Sharp G (1-0-0)

W1: No play
W2: Over (W)
W3: Pass
This sharp has said last week that Tennessee needed to practice its passing game, and while more of an effort was put forth, there still was not enough. Dobbs needs practice. The receivers need practice. The perfect example was the first touchdown Dobbs missed to Malone. There are so many complexities in that route against zone coverage, that play needs to be repped several time against live players. The offensive line is getting better, but they are clearly frustrated. Every play one is missing an assignment that and it is bad. Enough is enough, No more drills just practice the plays. The eye in the sky will tell the coaches that and if they can’t see it, get rid of them. This sharp also thinks the jury is still out on Florida. They are better than last year, but not by much. The teams they have faced just are not good. Florida has played three teams worse than Ohio. That is a really bad schedule. They should have the number 1 defense in the country. They should look like the 85 bears on film right now. So what does that mean about their offense? I do not think they can score on Tennessee. Odds are Tennessee finds their offensive groove first. Vols win 20-11. Vols cover.
Top Picks (6-3-0)
Ole Miss (-7) over Georgia
Texas A&M (-5.5) over Arkansas
Colorado (+9) over Oregon
UNC Vs Pitt over (68)

• Sharp H (0-0-0)

W1: No Play
W2: No Play
W3: No Play
This sharp is one of my favorites, and he hasn’t been around this season. He loves talking X’s and O’s. He believes that Tennessee has a problem in the doctrine they are teaching their offensive lineman. It is great to be versatile and know all of the positions, but hand dominance and placement changes on the left and right side. This is especially true when it comes to the tackle position. He believes you are wasting time you do not stay on one side for each year as a tackle. For example, a left tackle needs a very strong left handed punch as opposed to a right tackle it is in the right hand. Too much moving around. Dobbs hasn’t seen a pass skeleton drill since he has been a starter, and to be honest, Dobbs shouldn’t be throwing live reps to anyone who is not in the gameplan. This seems like an issue. Kamara, my word, will someone give him the ball. He was the sole reason Tennessee had a bang at the beginning of the game. If the entire team loves one player, this sharp would be money it’s Kamara. That is how you get a team going. He has read articles about how Butch Jones has a good pulse on the team, but you also have to know what will wake a team up. Kamara will do that. No matter what the team will respond, if he gets hit hard, the team will hit harder. If he scores, the team is uplifted. If he gets mad, the whole team is likely to boil over. That’s what this team is missing. The defense looks like it is just getting done with puberty so look out. He likes the vols but their coaches need some work. Vols still win because of talent. 24-20. Florida covers.
Top Picks (0-0-0)
Ole Miss (-7) over UGA
Iowa (-13) over Rutgers
Florida St (-6) South Florida
Ladies and gentlemen, this was a brutal assessment on the coaching staff and more specifically on Butch Jones. I am not entirely sure what to think as still many predicted a win. The talent level on this team is apparent. They just do not understand what is happening strategically. It is not characteristic of a team this talented. Maybe they have gotten their wake up call, maybe they have not. Time will tell.
By the way, those who do not think Justin Martin is talented, most of those sharps believe he could be gone after this based on his talent. Much higher ceiling than Cam Sutton, but the floor is much lower as well
Go Vols