Slot Machine Odds - Chances & Odds of Winning a Jackpot
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Ended my gambling career (for now) on a high note - jackpot handpay to end 2020. My thoughts and ramblings as a now-retired gambler.
Warning: long rambling stories ahead. I am bored and waiting to get through my first day back at work since before Christmas. You've been warned! I've been going to the casino pretty regularly for the past few years. Before that, I played occasionally. I exclusively play slots. I view it as a night out - first with friends back when I brought $50 and played penny denom minimum bet spins and prayed to win $20, and then eventually shifting my mindset to playing higher bets and denominations. I hit my first jackpot handpay a couple of years ago. I hit $3700 on a $27 bet on a Geisha machine. I've hit a few other jackpots here and there, culminating with my biggest jackpot ever this past summer. I hit $12K on a $50 bet on a Pompeii slot machine. Well, the long story short is that I have fallen out of love with gambling. I have somehow managed to have a positive ROI on gambling. I track my withdrawls and win on a spreadsheet. To put it bluntly: I have been extremely lucky over the past few years. I know that slots are not a viable way to win money in the long run, so I made a decision a few months ago to "retire" from gambling at the end of 2020. I went to my local casino last Wednesday. It just so happens when I hit a jackpot that I usually do it within the first half hour or so I'm at the casino. Well, it happened again. After going up $600 or so on another slot machine (I don't remember the name), I went to one of my most hated/favorite old school slots - Zeus dollar denomination. One of my worst moments in all of gambling was a few years ago. I got a bonus round on the Zeus dollar denomination on max bet of $45 a spin. I was BEYOND excited. I've seen Youtube videos where people have won tens of thousands of dollars in that exact scenario. Much to my shock, I won nothing. In that game, you don't win anything for triggering the bonus. So I actually *lost* $45 on getting the bonus. I cashed out and left immediately. Anyway, last week I hit a modest $4500. It was exciting...but not as exciting as I thought it should be. I was cool, calm, and...detached. The wins didn't mean much to me, and the losses mean absolutely nothing. My wife and I are in the EXTREMELY fortunate position that losing $500 or so every week or two at the casino is affordable. I'm not ignorant to how lucky we are to be in this position. After getting paid out, I played a bit longer. But that hand pay drove home the realization that I had a few months ago: it was time to stop gambling. If I can't get pumped about a big win like that, and if I'm not even phased a little bit by losing, it's just not worth gambling any more. I used to go for entertainment, but even now gambling doesn't provide that much. As I sit now, I am up roughly $18K over three years of slots. Not bad, but not life changing. Enough that I bought my wife a Burberry and Louis Vuitton handbag on separate occasions. The rest if stashed in savings or in an investment account somewhere. But I am 100% committed to being done. At least for 2021, and probably longer. If anyone is interested in hearing my thoughts on how to win...I don't have any insight to share. It's luck. I got lucky. I know I got lucky. The usual tropes about setting win and loss thresholds is good advice. Sometimes I chased payouts and hit them. Sometimes I chased and lost. But I managed to hit more than miss, and for that I'm lucky. And thankful. Anyway. I don't have a major takeaway or anything. I don't have many people I can talk about this with in my personal life, so I figured I'd share a bit of my story here. If you do gamble, please do so responsibly. Good luck, and try to have fun. If you're not having fun, it's probably not the right way to spend your time or money. EDIT: I just wanted to say to anyone who reads this in the future that I appreciate the nice responses and PMs from people. It's nice to share a positive experience with others! I sincerely hope that if any of you choose to play in the future, you choose to do so responsibly. Gambling can be a hugely problematic lifestyle for some people. Stay safe. (end of preaching here). I also want to take a second to address some comments from some people about slots being skill based. This is 100% false. The concept of slots being skill based in any way is demonstrably untrue with three seconds of reasonable thinking. If we accept that there is a hypothetical slot game which is based on skill and not pure luck, what are the consequences of that? First of all, this information would leak out. There would be no way to contain it. If one person can solve the system, another an as well. Subsequently, someone would write a book on the subject. Think about all the poker and blackjack strategy books out there. These are games where skillful play can increase your odds of winning. Last I checked, there aren't any books or Supersytem-level analyses from prominent individuals willing to stake their names and reputations on publishing a "slot technique" book. There's a reason for this. And also - think about this: casinos still carry blackjack tables for a reason: they still have an edge to win. If there is a surefire way for individuals to win when playing slots, casinos would 100% for sure take these games out of circulation. Casinos are not in the business of giving away money. Any claim there is a foolproof way to win money playing slots does not make sense when critical thinking is applied to the circumstances. Slots are not like card games. Finding and playing only games where there is a "must win by" progressive is not the same thing as skillful play. That's more akin to something like card counting in blackjack. Many people who design slot machines and engineer the software behind the scenes have posted on Reddit and elsewhere that wins are based on random number generators running behind every spin. There is literally no skill involved - you win or lose each spin based on pure random luck. I am saying this because there are a number of people who come to this subreddit to look for ways to cheat the system and get easy money. I see posts like this fairly often, and I'm only browsing this subreddit occasionally. Gambling is not, and should not, be a way for anyone looking to make a quick buck. If you're looking to get an edge playing slots because you need to pay bills or make a quick buck, you are already in serious trouble. Do not buy into the delusion that you can get an edge or guarantee a win. People saying this are snake oil salesmen who do not care for you or your well-being. Anyway. I'm going to stop monitoring this post. I'm still open to receiving PMs or messages, but I've had my fun with this so far. I could do with fewer trolls, but this is the internet. I knew what to expect. Bon chance, everyone!
Introduction We're all familiar with the Hotline Miami's, Hollow Knight's, and Celeste's of the world. These are some of the indie games that hit the big time. Of course, for every one of these games, there's 100 other indie games that have been glossed over, relegated to a spot in a digital store few people will ever find themselves in. I wanted to bring attention to some of these lesser known indie games. I'm going to order them according to Metacritic Critic Ratings. Some of the games towards the bottom have a pretty low rating that I personally disagree with, but it's only fair that you hear from more than just me. While the reviews are low for some games, this is partly due to how few reviews there are for some games. #19 on the list has a 49% for the Xbox One version of the game due to it only having two reviews, while the PlayStation 4 version has a 90% rating due to it only having one review, despite both versions being functionally the same. This high level of variance usually occurs when a game only has a few reviews. Price will include a link to the U.S. store page of the game. Price is in U.S. dollars. 1. Inertial Drift
Includes a Separate 2 Player Local Competitive/Versus Multiplayer Mode
Description: Inertial Drift's distinguishing characteristic is its employment of the right analog stick for drifting. This takes a little getting used to, but it feels great once you get the hang of it, creating some exhilarating moments when perfecting corner turns. The game has 10 unique tracks + 10 reversed tracks, 16 vehicles, and four separate story arcs. Each story arc is only a couple of hours long and features a different protagonist with a different vehicle. Since you’ll be racing on the same track a few times, there are a few gameplay variations that differ from just reaching the finish line at the end, such as racking up a certain number of points that are acquired through longer drift times and other means. There's quite a bit of dialogue between races, and in the races themselves characters will frequently dish out positive commentary on your performance in the form of text in the top left hand corner of the screen. The game's aesthetics are a fusion of anime and synthwave. I've heard many fans liken the game to the manga Initial D, though I'm unfamiliar with that series myself.
Completion Time: ~3 Hours (for 1/4 Story Arcs)
Extra Content: There are a number of different modes including a Story Mode, Challenge Mode, Grand Prix Mode, Arcade Mode, two player Split-Screen, and Online, as well as a Tutorial. Completion of challenges in Challenge Mode allows you to unlock new vehicles for the other non-Story Modes. Grand Prix Mode allows you to race using different characters/vehicles through a connected set of challenges, while Arcade Mode is for one-off races. I wouldn't recommend this game for online play as the user-base is pretty small (hence it being overlooked) and you're unlikely to find a match. Getting all the achievements is fairly difficult.
Description: This is an action platformer that emulates arcade games from the latter half of the 1980s, but it is probably most reminiscent of Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts. The creator, Locomalito, states that the soundtrack uses the true arcade sound of the YM2203 chip. The game is hard, but the checkpoints are never more than a minute or two apart, and the lives' system/continue system has no penalties outside of locking you out of achievements. This is a very boss dense game - in the ~4 hour run-time it takes to complete the game, you fight 19 bosses. The handful of weapons and items you pick up helps lend variety to the combat, and no two boss fights feel the same.
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: The game has two endings. Most players will get the bad ending the first time around and be locked out of the final stage (which is the longest stage in the game). You do have to play through the game again to get the good ending, but you'll likely do it in half the time. If you want to see all the major content on your first go around, I recommend looking up how to get the good ending before you play the game. If you do achieve the good ending on your first playthrough, the completion time is probably closer to six hours. As far as achievements are concerned, 100% completion is very difficult to obtain. If you like an extreme challenge, this one's for you.
Description: Valfaris acts as a continuation of Slain - the developer's previous work - but it’s not necessary to play Slain first to understand the story of Valfaris. While Slain was mostly just a slightly above average action platformer, Valfaris is one of the best run & gun games I've ever played. You play as Prince Therion who returns to his home planet of Valfaris on a quest to kill his father. It's themed around a fictional planet and has a gross alien vibe coupled with heavy metal music. The music doesn't override the other audio in the game, and it does a nice job of upping the ante when you're fighting a boss – of which there are many. You're equipped with a primary gun, a more powerful mana-based gun, a sword, and a shield that can block with mana or parry.
Description Continued: There are a number of weapons to acquire throughout the game, and the guns in particular do a great job of feeling different. You’re able to upgrade your weapons with Blood Metals. Some Blood Metals are found in plain sight, others are rewarded for defeating a tough enemy, and some are given for going off the beaten path. These upgrades typically just up the firepower but will sometimes introduce a secondary move to your weapon. There are checkpoints every two minutes or so, and most bosses will have a checkpoint just before them (only the weaker bosses come after a gauntlet of enemies). The game is a little hard at points, but overall it strikes a nice balance of feeling accomplished for overcoming the challenges without getting overly frustrating.
Completion Time: ~8 Hours
Extra Content: There are a few secrets to find throughout the game that are off the beaten path, though I was able to find 2/3 of them on my first playthrough. I found all but one weapon as well. The replayability comes from New Game+, which allows you to take all your upgraded weapons into a harder version of the game. Since the weapons all function a bit differently, this can be lots of fun. There are also some achievements that test your skills further, like finishing the game in two hours or beating the game with 10 or less deaths.
Description: This is a 3D platformer that reportedly takes inspiration from both MediEvil and Jak & Daxter: The Precursor Legacy. There’s about equal amounts of platforming and combat in this game. While the combat is relatively simple, you’re given a variety of weapons that all feel unique. The levels have a good amount of variety within them – you’ll jump between ships on a ferry ride, ride an undead horse through the sky, play a few mini games as a headless Jack, and fight a boss at the end of each of the six levels. Both the combat and platforming are relatively easy – platforms are typically large and Jack has an edge grab that helps tremendously, and smashing the many destructible objects around the levels increases your health. This game takes the linear adventure approach, with a number of collectibles sprinkled throughout the levels: crow skulls, presents, and gramophones. Some areas are more open and allow you to choose the order in which you do certain tasks. The game has a decent amount of dialogue in it, which does an effective job of giving some character to Jack, his two animal companions, and the rest of the cast. The visuals and soundtrack are particularly great, especially if you’re into Halloween themed media.
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: There’s collectibles to back for – I got about 2/3 of the collectibles on my first playthrough – skins to unlock – which are purchased with the collectibles you find in the levels – and you get to start a second playthrough with all the weapons already unlocked at the beginning
Description: Pato Box follows an anthropomorphic duck boxer on an adventure through a stylistic noir comic book world. “Pato” is a Spanish word that translates to “Duck” in English (the game was developed by a Mexican studio). The boss fights are heavily inspired by Punch-Out’s gameplay, but there are levels outside of these fights to help differentiate it. Most of the levels can be selected in any order you choose and typically serve as a leadup to the boss fight. Bosses are usually introduced by a cutscene followed by some dialogue taunting Pato Box. The levels play entirely differently from the fights, but the themes of the level match those of the bosses. The levels will employ various elements of evasion, stealth, exploration, and a few time-based mini-games. The casino level, for example, will have you walk around the casino looking for chips and punching the slot machines to earn enough to pay entrance to the fight, while the food factory has you evading stompers, sawblades, and butcher knives as you work your way through the level.
Description Continued: There are variety of things to find throughout the levels: tokens for decorations in Pato Box’s room, backstory on the boss of the level and the world, and tips on how to win the upcoming fight. The fights themselves lock Pato Box in the middle of the screen, allowing you to block, juke left or right, and perform a low or high jab to the left or right. Bosses are dynamic and have a number of different phases to fight through. The game foregoes a HUD in favor of a visual representation of your health via scars on your body, which I thought was a nice touch. While the levels and bosses play pretty differently from each other, they’re weaved together by a dark and intriguing story that follows Pato Box’s quest for retribution against an evil corporation.
Completion Time: ~7 Hours
Extra Content: There’s an Arcade Mode that lets you replay boss fights and some collectibles to find in the main campaign. The achievements are very difficult, and many ask you to beat a boss without taking a single hit.
Description: Ultra Hat Dimension follows Bea through a series of rooms in a palace on a quest to undo the magical spell that has made the mythical Spluff creatures want to attack one another. There is a little bit of backstory via one sentence thoughts from Bea in between levels, but nothing major here. The gameplay revolves equipping four different types of hats and using them to evade or push Spluffs around to retrieve the key and reach the door. Each Spluff dons one of four different hats which effects their behavior towards other Spluffs and you. You will be punched one tile back by every Spluff unless you’re wearing the same hat as the Spluff. Spluffs interact with one another differently depending on what hat they’re wearing in a rock, paper, scissors kind of way – they may punch a Spluff back one space, get into a scuffle that allows you to get close to them without wearing a hat, or they may temporarily disable them in a way that allows you to access the space the Spluff consumes within eight moves. There are undo and reset buttons included that allow you to quickly rewind mistakes. There are some clever puzzles accompanied by catchy tunes and a charming pixel art aesthetic. The difficulty is about average.
Completion Time: ~3 Hours
Extra Content: Since this is published by Ratalaika Games, getting all the achievements can be obtained after only clearing 2/3 of the levels. There are a few custom maps on the PC version of the game but no additional content on consoles.
Description: Usually with Metroidvanias, I expect a long, difficult game that's difficult to navigate. Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight is a counter to those ideas while still maintaining the exploratory nature of the sub-genre. The plot is pretty simple and doesn't feature a ton of story, but there are a few NPCs you talk to throughout your quest. The combat is also fairly simple, but the boss fights you engage in are all great. Without much weapon customization, it's stripped to the basics of dodging enemy attacks while trying to get a hit in. It makes for a game that's easy to get into and instantly start enjoying. All of the areas are visually appealing, some more than others, and each of them lasts shorter than you'd expect. The game is only around 3-5 hours, but it feels like you've played so much more in that time. Some games only really start to take off by the time this game finishes.
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: Getting 100% map completion should only take an hour or two of cleanup. I did miss an optional boss on my first playthrough. There are also items to discover, and the achievements give fun challenges to extend the life of the game. One cool thing I liked was that beating a boss without getting hit at all gives you a useful item. It also features New Game+, allowing you to carry over most of your items, making the game more difficult, and changing up enemy placement.
Description: The Count Lucanor’s story is very fairy tale-esque – more like a classic fairy tale as it can be pretty dark and grotesque at times. On his 10th birthday, Hans chooses to leave his mother in a quest for wealth. After some walking and conversation with NPCs you find along the way, you stumble upon a large mansion and find that the count of this mansion is looking to pass his wealth onto an heir who can prove himself worthy – “worthy” in this case being the one who can figure out the count’s name. From here, you are tasked with adventuring through the mansion and solving environmental puzzles in a nonlinear way to acquire the letters that spell the count’s name. There is a survival horror element to the game, as you are unable to attack the enemies in the mansion and instead must crawl under tables and find other ways around them. You can place candles around the mansion to light it up to help you better evade enemies, but your usage is limited (though you can find more).
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: There are five different endings and some puzzles/rooms you don’t even have to do. This could double your playtime – maybe even more if you don’t use a guide. You have to get all five endings and do some other miscellaneous stuff to get all achievements, but it has a relatively high completion rate.
Description: If you liked Detroit: Become Human or Until Dawn, Late Shift will be right up your alley. This game is a bit different from both those titles in that it's an FMV, with the gameplay solely consisting of the choices you make. You receive prompts at key moments in the story on what you want your character to do next, and this effects the outcome of the game. It plays more like Black Mirror's Bandersnatch, though this game came before it. The story follows an everyman who gets tangled up in London's criminal underground just as a result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Completion Time: ~1.5 Hour Completion Time*
Extra Content: There are 180 choice points and 7 different endings. I only got 4 out of 21 of the achievements on my first playthrough. There are a number of different routes to take with the game.
10. Unbox: Newbie’s Adventure
Includes a Separate 4 Player Local Competitive/Versus Multiplayer Mode
Description: Unbox takes heavy inspiration from Banjo Kazooie and other collectathons of the fifth generation but has levels far larger than any Nintendo 64 platformer. Fortunately your customizable character can cover huge amounts of ground very quickly via the unbox mechanic, which is basically a super jump you can use up to six times before you need replenishment via item pickups or checkpoints. Both the jump and unbox mechanic are tied to the shoulder buttons, which takes some getting used to but is ultimately one I’m in favor of, as it allows for camera control without removing your thumb from the jump or unbox buttons. The high speeds you can travel make for some great exploration, but the game is still able to disable your ability to unbox by giving you a “fragile” item, allowing for more carefully considered platforming sections.
Description Continued: Each of the three major worlds have four major collectibles: 200 gold tape, 10 caged zippies, 18 stamps, and 1 super stamp rewarded upon defeating the boss of the world. There is also a hub world that has just 200 gold tape to collect. The 18 stamps are the jiggies or stars of the game, and they’re primarily what you’re after to advance the game. 9 of them are hidden across the world, while the other 9 are given by NPCs upon the completion of a task: Digi will ask you to take an item from point A to point B with some platforming in between, Dash will ask you to complete three races around different areas of the map, Superbox will ask you to destroy 20 enemies in X amount of time, etc. The other collectibles simply unlock more cosmetic options for your character.
Completion Time: ~7 Hours
Extra Content: The game only requires you collect 2/3 of the stamps to beat the game. If you want to collect all the stamps, zippies, and gold tape, this could more than double your playtime, as the worlds are massive and finding all the gold tape is a daunting task, though they do make a distinct noise when you are near them once you’ve collected half of them in a level. Your friendly companion Bounce will also give you visual clues on where to find whatever collectible you might be stuck on. I was able to find all the collectibles in the first world but three gold tape with next to no issues, though Bounce helped me with the remaining three. I really have to commend the developers for their inclusion of both audio cues and visual guides built within the game to guide you to collectibles – it makes collecting every last thing a lot less tedious. The high speeds of your character allow you great traversal of the world, which also helps with collecting everything. The achievements require you to collect everything. In addition to the single player campaign, there are quite a few local multiplayer modes for up to four players – these include Boxing, Collect, Thief, Oddbox, and Delivery. The developers go into more detail on each mode here.
Description: This is the sequel to the original 2D PC exclusive from 2017, with another 3D sequel currently in production. If you care at all for the story, it’s recommended you play or at least read about what happened in the first game. Spark 2 actually follows Fark, another jester. Spark 2 emulates many of the high speed moments found in 3D Sonic games, but brings a few ideas of its own. In particular, action is a bigger focus in this game, though platforming is still the priority. Enemies are easy enough to run past with a few exceptions for mini bosses at the end of some levels and the nine main bosses. In addition, enemies can also add to your score.
Description Continued: In addition to Fark’s expanded move-set in combat, he also has the ability to double jump, dash, and wall jump. The jumps give you a lot of air time, lending more leniency to the platforming, and the dash is great for building momentum. There’s quite a bit to explore in each level too – jumping off ramps in the middle of loopdeloops will sometimes result in you finding the game’s main collectible, floppy disks. Fark can also acquire four additional costumes found within the levels that offer some variation in abilities. The game offers five difficulties at the start, with it recommending the second easiest option, Normal, as the default way to play your first time through. Bosses on this difficulty are fairly easy provided you’re competent with timing when to use your shield, though I did lose once or two against a few of them.
Description: Remothered: Tormented Fathers feels very old school in its design philosophy - no weapons outside a few self defense items and distraction items. You go back and forth in the mansion and have to learn the layout and where things are to proceed. You have to manually select the key item from your inventory to use on triggers (but a key icon is still shown to guide you a little). The sounds in this game do a great job of evoking tension, and I appreciate that the stalkers don’t seem to teleport, so if you can get away from them, you’ve earned your freedom for awhile. This is the first game in a loosely connected trilogy. The second one - Remothered: Broken Porcelain just released last month, but I've heard it's pretty buggy at the moment and not recommended in its current state.
Completion Time: ~6 Hours
Extra Content: There are some collectibles you can go back for, but not a whole beyond that. You’ll probably get most of the achievements – if not all, except the collectibles one - on your first playthrough.
Description: The premise of the game is a fusion of side scrollers and oldschool fixed screens that teleport you to the opposite side of the screen when you pass through one side - think Pac-Man, arcade Mario Bros., or Balloon Fight. You will find obstacles in your path that are impenetrable in a typical side scroller, but can be overcome by holding a button to turn the screen into a fixed screen that allows you to pass through one side and out through the other end. This is a totally unique take on a puzzle platformer I haven't seen before, and all five worlds bring something new to the table. For example, World 2 will flip you upside down when you pass through a screen, allowing new types of challenges as a result. There's more emphasis on the puzzle elements than the platforming.
Completion Time: ~2 Hours
Extra Content: There is a New Game+, but from what I could tell from the beginning it wasn't a whole lot different. Still, there's an achievement for completing New Game+ and some other fun achievements.
Description: SINNER is a Soulslike boss rush - there are no levels and only small area before each boss to practice your moves. There are eight bosses, the first seven allowing you to fight in any order, each representing the seven deadly sins. You are equipped with everything the game has to offer from the beginning (except for the New Game+ weapon they give you), and instead of becoming more powerful, you gradually lose things with each boss you defeat, hence the “sacrifice” in the title. It’s like a reverse RPG. Each boss has a different sacrifice associated to it – one may deplete your throwing items’ usage, while another will deplete your health and stamina. Picking the best order to fight them in adds a little strategic thinking to the game, as you may be more dependent on your large health and stamina bar more than your throwing items’ usage, for example. The game is fairly difficult, so your victories over each boss feel very gratifying when they do come.
Completion Time: ~5 Hours
Extra Content: There is New Game+ that offers you an additional weapon. The achievements task you with a few things you have to pull off in battles, and getting all the achievements is pretty easy to obtain.
Description: Reportedly inspired by obscure Japanese games from the late 1980s and 1990s, Tamashii blends puzzle platforming together with an oppressive atmosphere. The introduction starts with the character being willed into existence by a godlike character that tasks him with destroying the macabre forces that have taken control of and corrupted his chambers. Your character is able to spawn three inanimate clones of himself which is the primary source for most of the platforming and some of the boss fights – you’ll use them to trigger switches and open up new paths. There’s about an even mix of puzzle solving and platforming, and there’s a whole eight bosses in this short adventure (though one is a secret) that are probably the most visually interesting moments in the game. The creatures and backgrounds are effective in selling the dark presentation of the game. The difficulty is about average – maybe slightly easier than most indie puzzle platformers. There is a sequel currently in the works.
Completion Time: ~2.5 Hours
Extra Content: There are a few obscure secrets to discover. You can also play through the chambers again with a score meter, and there are certain achievements associated with getting a good score. Getting all the achievements isn’t too difficult, but you’ll probably need a guide for some of the secrets.
Description: Verlet Swing’s aesthetic is as intriguing as its gameplay: you are tasked with grappling and swinging yourself across these vaporwave styled levels without hitting anything. The levels are all very short, but you’re likely to play many levels dozens of times before even finishing it… just to get a 1/4 rank. The ranking system is actually very cool, in that it encourages you to find alternative paths or sometimes just building up more momentum to get to the end faster. Most levels do seem to have a set path, but at the same time, with the proper grappling of the mechanics, you can forge your own, which is a game in itself.
Completion Time: ~7 Hours
Extra Content: There’s an in game challenge menu that mostly recycles a lot of the base game content – though there’s a particularly funny one that switches the perspective to third person to play as a knockoff Spiderman. You can also go back and try to get the best possible time for each level. Getting all achievement is extremely difficult.
Description: Warlock’s Tower’s puzzles are built around the movement of the player. There are numbers on the ground for the player to pick up – either 3 or 5 – and this gives the player a set number of steps before they die. Your goal in every level is to make it to an exit, and you’ll have to acquire the numbers in an order that gets you there. It is a bit easy in the beginning but eventually works up to be a challenge in the later levels as more elements are introduced: enemies, teleporters, conveyors, and even controlling two characters at once that share movement usage. The game has a very believable GameBoy aesthetic and sound effects to accompany it, and it works for this slower paced tile-based game.
Completion Time: ~6 Hours
Extra Content: This is published by Ratalaika Games, but surprisingly enough, you actually have to beat the game and find a few NPCs hidden in certain levels to get all achievements. There are optional levels in each world that don’t have any achievements attached to them, and this should add a few hours to the game.
Description: The Bunker is an FMV point & click adventure, meaning it features real actors and environments just like a live action movie. Many of the actors involved have been in high profile movies/TV shows as well, including The Hobbit, Game of Thrones, Star Wars, and Penny Dreadful. The game takes place in a fallout shelter and follows the last survivor as he tries to find a way outside following the death of his mother, after living 30+ years in the bunker. The gameplay has you solving puzzles and finding ways to proceed to the next area. The story is the focal point of the game though, and it frequently switches between the past and the present to tell its story. There’s a good juxtaposition between the lively past and the lonely present that makes you question how the protagonist ended up as the last survivor. There’s only one narrative choice to make in the game, and it comes at the very end. The game also works in handheld mode with touchscreen functionality if you'd prefer to play it that way.
Completion Time: ~2. Hour Completion Time*
Extra Content: You can replay the game and try to find all the collectibles. Most of them give more background on the story. You can trigger the ending you did not choose the first time around by simply reloading the last checkpoint, so there is no need to play through the whole game again to unlock it. Getting all the achievements is fairly easy.
Description: Hayfever is a precision platformer that revolves around a mailman propelling himself using a number of different allergens that act as power-ups. A lot of the platforming is aerial and typically has you catching allergens mid-air to perform maneuvers in quick succession. It's not an easy game by any means, but it has oddly relaxing music to accompany the rather intense platforming. There are also letters to collect in each level to steepen the challenge and some secrets to discover too. It takes an hour or so to get used to the aerial platforming, and this is one of the few 2D platformers played better with the analog stick rather than the D-Pad. But letters that seemed unattainable to me at the beginning of the game became much simpler by the end, as I had mastered the controls and physics of the game. I’ve played a ton of 2D platformers, and this is one of my favorites.
Completion Time: ~8 Hours
Extra Content: It'll take another 8 hours or so to collect all the letters and probably about 6 hours or so to beat the Hard World, which features an additional 28 remixed levels. There are also secrets to uncover, but they don't net any in game progress and only work towards your achievement completion. Finding these secrets will probably vary more in time because they are hidden, but expect them to take a few hours to find. Just to clarify, letters are an expanded test of your platforming skills and are all in clear view of the screen, while secrets are a test of your observational skills and take a little more digging to finish. Attaining all achievements is a fair and rewarding challenge that took me about 25-30 hours to get.
Description: Cybarian has an interesting yet simple combat system that distinguishes itself from most action platformers. Instead of mashing the attack button, you have to press it once, wait two seconds for the animation to complete, press it again, wait two seconds for the animation to complete, and then press it again to complete a full combo. It sounds like something that's easy to get down quickly, but I found myself still occasionally going too quickly in the intensity of a boss fight. The game punishes you by not fulfilling the attack if you button mash. After each boss fight, you unlock a new move that will be required to fell some foes in the next stage. Conversely, you can play Hard Mode which unlocks all moves right from the get-go, but you'll have to beat all four stages without dying. "Hardcore Mode" would've been a more apt description of this difficulty setting, I feel.
Completion Time: ~1.5 Hours
Extra Content: Just like with Ultra Hat Dimension and Warlock’s Tower, this is a Ratalaika Games published game, so getting all the achievements can be achieved in under an hour. It would've been nice if they pushed you to beat Hard Mode, but you'll just have to settle for internal gratification instead.
Conclusion My top 5 on the list in order would be the following: (1.) Hayfever, (2.) Valfaris, (3.) Cursed Castilla: (Maldita Castilla EX), (4.) Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight, and (5.) Pumpkin Jack. Have you played any of these games? What are some other overlooked single player indie games? See my post below for some upcoming indie games to look out for.
We're all familiar with the Hotline Miami's, Hollow Knight's, and Celeste's of the world. These are some of the indie games that hit the big time. Of course, for every one of these games, there's 100 other indie games that have been glossed over, relegated to a spot in a digital store few people will ever find themselves in. I wanted to bring attention to some of these lesser known indie games. I'm going to order them according to Metacritic Critic Ratings. Some of the games at the bottom have pretty low critic ratings. I personally disagree with the low scores of these games, but it's only fair that you hear from more than just me. Keep in mind that games with only one or two User Ratings on Metacritic will not show the score. A game needs at least three User Ratings on Metacritic before the score will be shown. This is not the case for Critic Reviews. Price will contain the U.S. PlayStation Store link to the game. 1. Hayfever
Description: Hayfever is a precision platformer that revolves around a mailman propelling himself using a number of different allergens that act as power-ups. A lot of the platforming is aerial and typically has you catching allergens mid-air to perform maneuvers in quick succession. It's not an easy game by any means, but it has oddly relaxing music to accompany the rather intense platforming. There are also letters to collect in each level to steepen the challenge and some secrets to discover too. It takes an hour or so to get used to the aerial platforming, and this is one of the few 2D platformers played better with the analog stick rather than the D-Pad. But letters that seemed unattainable to me at the beginning of the game became much simpler by the end, as I had mastered the controls and physics of the game. I don't expect everyone to love this game, but I have to agree with the one other guy who played it that gave it a 9/10. After putting 25+ hours into it, I am still eager to replay it soon.
Completion Time: ~8 Hours
Extra Content: It'll take another 8 hours or so to collect all the letters and probably about 6 hours or so to beat the Hard World, which features an additional 28 remixed levels. There are also secrets to uncover, but they don't net any in game progress and only work towards your trophy completion. Finding these secrets will probably vary more in time because they are hidden, but expect them to take a few hours to find. Just to clarify, letters are an expanded test of your platforming skills and are all in clear view of the screen, while secrets are a test of your observation skills and take a little more digging to find. The platinum trophy is a fair and rewarding challenge that took me about 25-30 hours to get.
Description: Valfaris is one of the best run & gun games I've ever played. You play as Prince Therion who returns to his home planet of Valfaris on a quest to kill his father. It's themed around a fictional planet and has a gross alien vibe coupled with heavy metal music. The music doesn't override the other audio in the game, and it does a nice job of upping the ante when you're fighting a boss – of which there are many. You're equipped with a primary gun, a more powerful mana-based gun, a sword, and a shield that can block with mana or parry. There are a number of weapons to acquire throughout the game, and the guns in particular do a great job of feeling different. You’re able to upgrade your weapons with Blood Metals. Some Blood Metals are found in plain sight, others are rewarded for defeating a tough enemy, and some are given for going off the beaten path. These upgrades typically just up the firepower but will sometimes introduce a secondary move to your weapon. There are checkpoints every two minutes or so, and most bosses will have a checkpoint just before them (only the weaker bosses come after a gauntlet of enemies). The game is a little hard at points, but overall it strikes a nice balance of feeling accomplished for overcoming the challenges without getting overly frustrating.
Completion Time: ~8 Hours
Extra Content: There are a few secrets to find throughout the game that are off the beaten path, though I was able to find 2/3 of them on my first playthrough. I found all but one weapon as well. The replayability comes from New Game+, which allows you to take all your upgraded weapons into a harder version of the game. Since the weapons all function a bit differently, this can be lots of fun. Getting the platinum trophy is somewhat difficult.
Description: The premise of the game is a fusion of side scrollers and oldschool fixed screens that teleport you to the opposite side of the screen when you pass through one side - think Pac-Man, arcade Mario Bros., or Balloon Fight. You will find obstacles in your path that are impenetrable in a typical side scroller, but can be overcome by holding a button to turn the screen into a fixed screen that allows you to pass through one side and out through the other end. This is a totally unique take on a puzzle platformer I haven't seen before, and all five worlds bring something new to the table. For example, World 2 will flip you upside down when you pass through a screen, allowing new types of challenges as a result. There's more emphasis on the puzzle elements than the platforming.
Completion Time: ~2 Hours
Extra Content: There is a New Game+, but from what I could tell from the beginning it wasn't a whole lot different. Still, there's a trophy for completing New Game+ and some other fun trophies. Unfortunately, like many early generation indie games, this one has no platinum trophy.
Description: This game revolves around using two square characters who fling themselves from one end of the room to the other to reach an exit. You must position yourself in such a way that you use each character's body to get around the level. Each world introduces a new mechanic to keep things fresh. The whole game is played only using the two analog sticks (the d-pad and face buttons work, but the two analog sticks are best, in my opinion). It can also be played in local co-op, however with how often you have to fling yourself around, coordinating the correct movements to the other player would be exhausting, and it is easier to experiment yourself.
Completion Time: ~3.5 Hours
Extra Content: There's really no extra content, but $4 for what's almost a 4 hour game isn't bad. There is an easy platinum trophy however.
Description: This is actually a sequel to the Steam exclusive Horizon Shift, which sports a different aesthetic and isn’t quite as good from what I’ve read. Horizon Shift ’81 mimics the look of a fixed screen shoot ‘em up from the early 1980s but comes with a few twists of its own. Your ship is positioned in the middle of the screen on a horizontal line rather than the bottom, and you have to flip between sides to deal with enemies coming from both the top and the bottom. The line can be broken in different places – leaving a gap where you can fall to your death – by asteroids and certain projectiles. This is where the expanded moveset comes into play: you can jump between gaps and also over enemies who attach themselves to the line. Enemies on the line can also be taken out with a horizontal shield bash that regenerates after a few seconds. There is a boss after every five stages, some of which will actually bring the line down to the bottom of the screen, while others retain it in the middle. Horizon Shift ’81 has a number of customizable settings that change everything from the aesthetics, to the difficulty, to the checkpoint/lives system, to the speed of the game, and more. The two main modes are a choice between three lives with a checkpoint before and after every boss, or a checkpoint at the beginning of every level but only one life.
Completion Time: ~3.5 Hours (Normal Mode on Arcade Style)
Extra Content: There are a number of ways to customize your future playthroughs, and there’s an unlockable boss rush mode after finishing the game. The few trophies are relatively easy to obtain. There is no platinum trophy for this game.
Description: Daggerhood's main hook is the use of its sword teleportation mechanic. You throw your sword with a button, and you press the same button again to teleport to where the sword is. While this is a mechanic that has been seen in some Metroidvanias, I haven't seen a tight, linear 2D platformer make use of this mechanic before. Each level has a number of collectibles and some small side sections as well, but for the most part the path to the finish is clear - it's just the execution that's the tricky part. Add in teleportation portals to make things even trickier.
Completion Time: ~2.5 Hours
Extra Content: As this is a Ratalaika Games published game, the platinum trophy only takes about 1-1.5 hours to achieve. You can get it well before you even finish the game, which is a shame because the game had all the makings for a fun platinum trophy. There are tons of collectibles in each level, and each level records your time. So there is a lot here to extend to the playtime.
Description: Usually with Metroidvanias, I expect a long, difficult game that's difficult to navigate. Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight is a counter to those ideas while still maintaining the exploratory nature of the sub-genre. The plot is pretty simple and doesn't feature a ton of story, but there are a few NPCs you talk to throughout your quest. The combat is also fairly simple, but the boss fights you engage in are all great. Without much weapon customization, it's stripped to the basics of dodging enemy attacks while trying to get a hit in. It makes for a game that's easy to get into and instantly start enjoying. All of the areas are visually appealing, some more than others, and each of them lasts shorter than you'd expect. The game is only around 3-5 hours, but it feels like you've played so much more in that time. Some games only really start to take off by the time this game finishes.
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: Getting 100% map completion should only take an hour or two of cleanup. I did miss an optional boss on my first playthrough. There are also items to discover, and the trophies give fun challenges to extend the life of the game. Unfortunately there is no platinum trophy for this game. One cool thing I liked was that beating a boss without getting hit at all gives you a useful item. It also features New Game+, allowing you to carry over most of your items, making the game more difficult, and changing up enemy placement.
Description: Ultra Hat Dimension follows Bea through a series of rooms in a palace on a quest to undo the magical spell that has made the mythical Spluff creatures want to attack one another. There is a little bit of backstory via one sentence thoughts from Bea in between levels, but nothing major here. The gameplay revolves equipping four different types of hats and using them to evade or push Spluffs around to retrieve the key and reach the door. Each Spluff dons one of four different hats which effects their behavior towards other Spluffs and you. You will be punched one tile back by every Spluff unless you’re wearing the same hat as the Spluff. Spluffs interact with one another differently depending on what hat they’re wearing in a rock, paper, scissors kind of way – they may punch a Spluff back one space, get into a scuffle that allows you to get close to them without wearing a hat, or they may temporarily disable them in a way that allows you to access the space the Spluff consumes within eight moves. There are undo and reset buttons included that allow you to quickly rewind mistakes. There are some clever puzzles accompanied by catchy tunes and a charming pixel art aesthetic. The difficulty is about average.
Completion Time: ~3 Hours
Extra Content: Since this is published by Ratalaika Games, getting the platinum trophy can be obtained after only clearing 2/3 of the levels. There are a few custom maps on the PC version of the game but no additional content on consoles.
Description: Remothered: Tormented Fathers feels very old school in its design philosophy - no weapons outside a few self defense items and distraction items. You go back and forth in the mansion and have to learn the layout and where things are to proceed. You have to manually select the key item from your inventory to use on triggers (but a key icon is still shown to guide you a little). The sounds in this game do a great job of evoking tension, and I appreciate that the stalkers don’t seem to teleport, so if you can get away from them, you’ve earned your freedom for awhile. This is the first game in a loosely connected trilogy, with the second one due later this year.
Completion Time: ~6 Hours
Extra Content: There are some collectibles you can go back for, but not a whole beyond that. Unfortunately there is no platinum trophy for this game, and you'll probably get most of the trophies - if not all, except the collectibles one - on your first playthrough.
Description: Reverie is a mix between Zelda’s gameplay, Earthbound’s aesthetic and humor, and a New Zealand folktale – the legend of Maui and the Giant Fish. Instead of the more traditional sword and shield style fantasy, Reverie instead opts for items and tools a modern boy is more likely to find in his possession, like a cricket bat, a yoyo, and a nerf gun. Similarly, the first dungeon is grandpa’s basement, where you’ll square off against a giant hedgehog and a tumble dryer. That said, the game does get more fantastical with the last two locations, particularly the last one. It’s a relatively easy game overall, though the fourth and especially fifth dungeon offer up a moderate challenge. The indie scene has produced a lot of Zelda-like games in recent years, but this is the only one I know of that isn’t your standard medieval fantasy.
Completion Time: ~5 Hours
Extra Content: There are feathers to collect, mini games to play, and a combat focused bonus dungeon to beat. That said, a lot of this stuff is easy to stumble upon in the main quest, so you’re probably looking at about two or three hours’ worth of content after beating the game to complete everything and get the platinum trophy.
Description: Inertial Drift's distinguishing characteristic is its employment of the right analog stick for drifting. This takes a little getting used to, but it feels great once you get the hang of it, creating some exhilarating moments when perfecting corner turns. The game has 10 unique tracks + 10 reversed tracks, 16 vehicles, and four separate story arcs. Each story arc is only a couple of hours long and features a different protagonist with a different vehicle. Since you’ll be racing on the same track a few times, there are a few gameplay variations that differ from just reaching the finish line at the end, such as racking up a certain number of points that are acquired through longer drift times and other means. There's quite a bit of dialogue between races, and in the races themselves characters will frequently dish out positive commentary on your performance in the form of text in the top left hand corner of the screen. The game's aesthetics are a fusion of anime and synthwave. I've heard many fans liken the game to the manga Initial D, though I'm unfamiliar with that series myself.
Completion Time: ~3 Hours (for 1/4 Story Arcs)
Extra Content: There are a number of different modes including a Story Mode, Challenge Mode, Grand Prix Mode, Arcade Mode, two player Split-Screen, and Online, as well as a Tutorial. Completion of challenges in Challenge Mode allows you to unlock new vehicles for the other non-Story Modes. Grand Prix Mode allows you to race using different characters/vehicles through a connected set of challenges, while Arcade Mode is for one-off races. I wouldn't recommend this game for online play as the user-base is pretty small (hence it being overlooked) and you're unlikely to find a match. Getting the platinum trophy is fairly difficult.
Description: This is an action platformer that emulates arcade games from the latter half of the 1980s, but it is probably most reminiscent of Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts. The creator, Locomalito, states that the soundtrack uses the true arcade sound of the YM2203 chip. The game is hard, but the checkpoints are never more than a minute or two apart, and the lives' system/continue system has no penalties outside of locking you out of trophies. This is a very boss dense game - in the ~4 hour run-time it takes to complete the game, you fight 19 bosses. The handful of weapons and items you pick up helps lend variety to the combat, and no two boss fights feel the same.
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: The game has two endings. Most players will get the bad ending the first time around and be locked out of the final stage (which is the longest stage in the game). You do have to play through the game again to get the good ending, but you'll likely do it in half the time. If you want to see all the major content on your first go around, I recommend looking up how to get the good ending before you play the game. As far as trophies are concerned, the platinum trophy is very difficult to obtain. If you like an extreme challenge, this one's for you.
Description: Pato Box follows an anthropomorphic duck boxer on an adventure through a stylistic noir comic book world. “Pato” is a Spanish word that translates to “Duck” in English (the game was developed by a Mexican studio). The boss fights are heavily inspired by Punch-Out’s gameplay, but there are levels outside of these fights to help differentiate it. Most of the levels can be selected in any order you choose and typically serve as a leadup to the boss fight. Bosses are usually introduced by a cutscene followed by some dialogue taunting Pato Box. The levels play entirely differently from the fights, but the themes of the level match those of the bosses. The levels will employ various elements of evasion, stealth, exploration, and a few time-based mini-games. The casino level, for example, will have you walk around the casino looking for chips and punching the slot machines to earn enough to pay entrance to the fight, while the food factory has you evading stompers, sawblades, and butcher knives as you work your way through the level. There are variety of things to find throughout the levels: tokens for decorations in Pato Box’s room, backstory on the boss of the level and the world, and tips on how to win the upcoming fight. The fights themselves lock Pato Box in the middle of the screen, allowing you to block, juke left or right, and perform a low or high jab to the left or right. The game foregoes a HUD in favor of a visual representation of your health via scars on your body, which I thought was a nice touch. While the levels and bosses play pretty differently from each other, they’re weaved together by a dark and intriguing story that follows Pato Box’s quest for retribution against an evil corporation.
Completion Time: ~7 Hours
Extra Content: There’s an Arcade Mode that lets you replay boss fights and some collectibles to find in the main campaign. The trophies are very difficult, and many ask you to beat a boss without taking a single hit.
Description: The Count Lucanor’s story is very fairy tale-esque – more like a classic fairy tale as it can be pretty dark and grotesque at times. On his 10th birthday, Hans chooses to leave his mother in a quest for wealth. After some walking and conversation with NPCs you find along the way, you stumble upon a large mansion and find that the count of this mansion is looking to pass his wealth onto an heir who can prove himself worthy – “worthy” in this case being the one who can figure out the count’s name. From here, you are tasked with adventuring through the mansion and solving environmental puzzles in a nonlinear way to acquire the letters that spell the count’s name. There is a survival horror element to the game, as you are unable to attack the enemies in the mansion and instead must crawl under tables and find other ways around them. You can place candles around the mansion to light it up to help you better evade enemies, but your usage is limited (though you can find more).
Completion Time: ~4 Hours
Extra Content: There are five different endings and some puzzles/rooms you don’t even have to do. This could double your playtime – maybe even more if you don’t use a guide. The platinum trophy requires every ending and a few other things but is pretty easy to get if you use a guide.
Description: The Bunker is an FMV point & click adventure, meaning it features real actors and environments just like a live action movie. Many of the actors involved have been in high profile movies/TV shows as well, including The Hobbit, Game of Thrones, Star Wars, and Penny Dreadful. The game takes place in a fallout shelter and follows the last survivor as he tries to find a way outside following the death of his mother, after living 30+ years in the bunker. The gameplay has you solving puzzles and finding ways to proceed to the next area. The story is the focal point of the game though, and it frequently switches between the past and the present to tell its story. There’s a good juxtaposition between the lively past and the lonely present that makes you question how the protagonist ended up as the last survivor. There’s only one narrative choice to make in the game, and it comes at the very end. The game also works in handheld mode with touchscreen functionality if you'd prefer to play it that way.
Completion Time: ~2. Hour Completion Time*
Extra Content: You can replay the game and try to find all the collectibles. Most of them give more background on the story. You can trigger the ending you did not choose the first time around by simply reloading the last checkpoint, so there is no need to play through the whole game again to unlock it. Getting the platinum trophy is fairly easy.
Description: A Tale of Paper takes direct inspiration from Little Nightmares, sporting the same sideview camera angle and minimalist narrative. It’s a little less creepy and has the interesting twist of transforming into a variety of different origamis on the fly: from a little alien creature, to a frog, to a ball, to a paper airplane, etc., all with the push of a button. You’ll use a combination of different origami shapes to overcome the obstacles in the area, and you’ll be accompanied by some gorgeous sceneries in the process. The gameplay is pretty easy in both its platforming and puzzles, making it an easygoing, movie-esque kind of game. While the story is minimalist, it results in a satisfying conclusion, and it really feels like you’ve been through quite a journey even with the short runtime. The game evokes the feeling of being a tiny specimen in a larger-than-life world – Toy Story 2 is probably the most apt comparison I can make. Outside of Little Nightmares, I haven’t played another game quite like this.
Completion Time: ~1.5 Hours
Extra Content: I got seven of the eight origami collectibles in my first run-through. The trophies also only offer a few extra things to do, but I’d recommend reading the list of trophies before you play the game if you want to get the relatively easy platinum trophy.
Description: If you liked Detroit: Become Human or Until Dawn, Late Shift will be right up your alley. This game is a bit different from both those titles in that it's an FMV, with the gameplay solely consisting of the choices you make. You receive prompts at key moments in the story on what you want your character to do next, and this effects the outcome of the game. It plays more like Black Mirror's Bandersnatch, though this game came before it. The story follows an everyman who gets tangled up in London's criminal underground just as a result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Completion Time: ~1.5 Hour Completion Time*
Extra Content: There are 180 choice points and 7 different endings. There is a platinum trophy, and I only got 4 out of 21 of the trophies on my first playthrough. There are a number of different routes to take with the game.
Description: SINNER: Sacrifice for Redemption is a Soulslike boss rush - there are no levels and only small area before each boss to practice your moves. There are eight bosses, the first seven allowing you to fight in any order, each representing the seven deadly sins. You are equipped with everything the game has to offer from the beginning (except for the New Game+ weapon they give you), and instead of becoming more powerful, you gradually lose things with each boss you defeat, hence the “sacrifice” in the title. It’s like a reverse RPG. Each boss has a different sacrifice associated to it – one may deplete your throwing items’ usage, while another will deplete your health and stamina. Picking the best order to fight them in adds a little strategic thinking to the game, as you may be more dependent on your large health and stamina bar more than your throwing items’ usage, for example. The game is fairly difficult, so your victories over each boss feel very gratifying when they do come.
Completion Time: ~5 Hours
Extra Content: There is New Game+ that offers you an additional weapon. The trophies task you with a few things you have to pull off in battles, and the platinum trophy is pretty easy to obtain.
Description: Verlet Swing’s aesthetic is as intriguing as its gameplay: you are tasked with grappling and swinging yourself across these vaporwave styled levels without hitting anything. The levels are all very short, but you’re likely to play many levels dozens of times before even finishing it… just to get a 1/4 rank. The ranking system is actually very cool, in that it encourages you to find alternative paths or sometimes just building up more momentum to get to the end faster. Most levels do seem to have a set path, but at the same time, with the proper grappling of the mechanics, you can forge your own, which is a game in itself.
Completion Time: ~7 Hours
Extra Content: There’s an in game challenge menu that mostly recycles a lot of the base game content – though there’s a particularly funny one that switches the perspective to third person to play as a knockoff Spiderman. You can also go back and try to get the best possible time for each level. Getting the platinum trophy is extremely hard and I believe is at 0.1% completion.
Description: Neon Drive is a challenging rhythm game with a synthwave aesthetic and appropriately matching music. The objective of the game is to evade the obstacles coming at you by transitioning between four lanes at the right moment using either two of the face buttons, D-Pad, or shoulder buttons. Personally I found the shoulder buttons worked best. The game will occasionally transform you into other vehicles that mix the gameplay up a bit - one notable example is when you turn into a plane and transition between eight lanes in a 360 degree orientation. There are only eight levels that are all about three minutes in length if you were to beat them with no deaths, with two checkpoints and two health points that regenerate between checkpoints. While this all sounds very generous, most of these levels will still take you dozens of tries, though the life reset is almost immediate so you can get back into the action right away.
Completion Time: ~3 Hours
Extra Content: There are two harder difficulties, an endurance mode that sees how long you can go without dying, a free run mode that allows you to play through the game without reset (only unlocked after beating each level), and online leaderboards. The trophies are very hard to get, and there is no platinum trophy.
Conclusion My top 5 on the list in order would be the following: (1.) Hayfever, (2.) Valfaris, (3.) Cursed Castilla: (Maldita Castilla EX), (4.) Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight, and (5.) Bleep Bloop. Have you played any of these games? What are some other overlooked single player indie games? If you’re looking for more indie games to play, see my post here:
Giants final report card: Grading every player from Logan Ryan to Golden Tate - The Athletic
The Giants coaching staff spent last week doing their final evaluations on the 2020 season. I figured I’d do the same, so here are my grades for every player who played at least 10 percent of the snaps on offense or defense this season. An important note: Expectations are factored into my grading scale. Daniel Jones is obviously a better player than C.J. Board, but they got the same grade based on how their performances measured up to preseason expectations. QUARTERBACKS • Daniel Jones: C. Jones didn’t make “the leap” often experienced by second-year quarterbacks. Most of Jones’ numbers were down despite making 14 starts this season compared to 12 as a rookie. Jones’ drop in touchdown passes (24 to 11) was jarring, although he also cut back on turnovers (12 interceptions and 18 fumbles in 2019, 10 interceptions and 11 fumbles in 2020). This coaching staff leaned more heavily on Jones as a runner and he proved to be a legitimate threat on the ground. There are endless reasons/excuses for the struggles of the offense, and by extension, Jones this season. How much the scheme, protection, skill players or reduced offseason affected Jones is impossible to quantify. But in a production business, the Giants offense was a failure. The quarterback has to bear some responsibility for that. The coaching staff is fully committed to Jones as the quarterback of the future. It’s clear that coaches believe Jones has the intangibles to lead the team and they observed subtle improvements in the second half of the season. But he needs more production in his third season to validate that faith. • Incomplete: Colt McCoy, Joe Webb. McCoy was exactly as expected: A solid veteran behind the scenes who could fill in competently in a spot start (he was the quarterback for the biggest win of the season over Seattle) but with physical limitations that make him best served as a backup. RUNNING BACKS • Devonta Freeman: C-. Freeman clearly wasn’t the player he was earlier in his career in Atlanta. He only averaged 3.2 yards per carry, but he had the misfortune of being the lead back before the offensive line hit its stride. Freeman never returned after suffering an ankle injury in Week 7. • Wayne Gallman: B+. Gallman was buried by Pat Shurmur’s staff and then overlooked by Joe Judge until Freeman’s injury. Gallman took over as the lead back in Week 8 and thrived. His north-south style meshed with the offensive line and he always finished runs by falling forward. Gallman doesn’t bring much to the passing game, but he proved he’s a legitimate NFL back. • Dion Lewis: D. Lewis clearly wasn’t capable of replacing Saquon Barkley, but the veteran underwhelmed in his primary role as a third-down back. Lewis had three fumbles, including two on kickoffs. He’s a good locker room presence who had familiarity with Judge, but the Giants need an upgrade next season. • Alfred Morris: B. There were no expectations when the Giants signed the 32-year-old Morris to the practice squad in Week 4, but injuries eventually opened the door for a role. Morris has clearly lost a step from his Pro Bowl days, but the savvy veteran was surprisingly effective, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. • Incomplete: Saquon Barkley, Eli Penny. Barkley’s torn ACL early in Week 2 was a crushing blow to an offense built around the dynamic back. Barkley has a lengthy rehab ahead, but expect him to come back loaded with motivation. The run game improved as Penny’s playing time increased in the middle of the season, but the fullback’s role was limited in this offense. WIDE RECEIVERS • C.J. Board: C. Board met low expectations. He was an afterthought as a receiver and didn’t make an impact on special teams. • Austin Mack: B-. It’s an accomplishment for an undrafted rookie just to get playing time. Mack made an immediate impression with four catches for 72 yards when starting in Golden Tate’s place in Week 9, but otherwise was a non-factor as a receiver aside from a crucial third-down drop in Week 16. Mack’s aggressive blocking stood out. He likely needs to become a special teams contributor to carve out a role. • Damion Ratley: D. The Giants chose to sign Ratley rather than keeping one of the receivers who impressed in camp. Ratley’s most notable contribution in five games was an offensive pass interference penalty that negated a touchdown in a loss to the Cowboys and led to his release. • Sterling Shepard: B. I wrote before the season to “expect around 70 catches and 800 yards if Shepard stays healthy.” Shepard finished with 66 catches for 656 yards despite missing four games with turf toe. Shepard has proven to be a quality No. 2/3 receiver during his five seasons. The problem is he’s been thrust into a No. 1 role the past two seasons. Ideally, Shepard will slide back into the slot and complement big-play threats outside next season. He’s a useful player to have in that role. • Darius Slayton: B. Slayton’s numbers in his second season were nearly identical to his rookie year (50 catches for 751 yards in 2020, 48 catches for 740 yards in 2019). His touchdown rate predictably regressed; he had three this season after having eight as a rookie. This season felt like a slight disappointment since expectations were high after his impressive rookie season, but Slayton has still been a steal as a fifth-round pick. It’s impossible to know how much Slayton was limited by injuries, but it seems clear that he’s not a No. 1 receiver. He could be a solid deep threat to complement a true No. 1. • Golden Tate: D. It was evident in training camp that Tate’s role was going to be reduced. It was also predictable that the accomplished veteran wouldn’t handle that well. That friction came to a head when Tate was suspended for a game in the middle of the season after complaining about his role. His production plummeted this season, although he was oddly effective at making contested catches. Tate’s season came to a premature end when he suffered a calf injury in practice in Week 16. It’s a safe bet that the 32-year-old has played his final game in a Giants uniform since the team can create $6 million in cap savings if they cut him. • Incomplete: Dante Pettis. Pettis had to wait until Week 16 for an opportunity after getting claimed in Week 10. The 2018 second-round pick made an impact in two games, which is encouraging heading into next season. TIGHT ENDS • Evan Engram: C-. It’s difficult to grade Engram objectively because his lows were so low, but he still was a productive player. His Pro Bowl selection was a farce, but his 63 catches and 654 yards ranked among the NFC leaders at tight end. But those numbers don’t tell the full story, as Engram was directly involved in a disproportionate number of turnovers and he was inefficient considering he was the fourth-most targeted tight end in the league. Engram works hard but it should be evident by now that he’ll never be a competent blocker. The Giants can bring Engram back for 2021 on his fifth-year option, but a change of scenery may be best for all involved. • Kaden Smith: B. Smith didn’t take the next step after showing promise in place of Engram late in the 2019 season. Smith wasn’t a big part of the passing game but he remains a solid blocker, especially on the counter runs that became a staple of the offense. His ceiling is being a No. 2 tight end and he fills that role capably. • Levine Toilolo: C-. It was always strange that the Giants gave Toilolo a two-year, $6.2 million contract with $3.2 million guaranteed. It didn’t make any more sense after Toilolo played just 27 percent of the offensive snaps. Toilolo was a decent blocker, while getting just six targets. He’ll likely be cut for $3 million in cap savings this offseason. • Incomplete: Eric Tomlinson. Tomlinson was mostly a healthy scratch before getting cut in Week 10 and landing in Baltimore. OFFENSIVE LINE • Cameron Fleming: C-. Fleming was signed to be a swing tackle but was pressed into a starting job by Nate Solder’s opt out. Fleming wasn’t good, but his performance was in line with his established level of play. If nothing else, Fleming provided some reliability as a veteran. • Nick Gates: B. Gates made tremendous progress after being thrust into the starting center job with no game experience (or even a full offseason at the position). It’s hard to evaluate the mental aspect of the position and that’s surely an area that will grow with experience. But Gates looked comfortable in the middle of the line and embraced an enforcer’s role. He showed enough to provide optimism that he can develop into a quality center. • Will Hernandez: C-. Hernandez’s play was similar to last season, which was a disappointment since he hasn’t built on a promising rookie season in 2018. He lost the starting left guard job after missing two games with COVID-19 in the middle of the season. It doesn’t seem like Hernandez is a big piece of the new coaching staff’s plans. • Shane Lemieux: C. Lemieux was a fifth-round pick, so expectations were low. He took over as at left guard after Hernandez missed time with COVID-19, starting the final nine games. Lemieux plays with a nasty streak that is evident in his run blocking, but he has a long way to go in pass protection. The Giants need to decide if they believe Lemieux is ready to be a full-time starter next season. • Matt Peart: B. Peart was viewed as a developmental project, so it was encouraging that the third-round pick showed enough to merit snaps in a rotation with Fleming at right tackle. Peart looked promising early but his play fell off in the second half of the season after he missed one game with COVID-19 and dealt with an ankle injury. Peart didn’t play a single snap in the season finale, leaving questions about how he’s viewed by the coaching staff. • Andrew Thomas: C. Thomas predictably experienced growing pains in his first season as a starting left tackle. The No. 4 pick had a particularly rough transition to the NFL in the first half of the season, but he made strides in the second half. The view of Thomas was hurt by comparisons to the other rookie tackles picked after him, but he showed enough signs to indicate he can be the long-term answer at left tackle. • Kevin Zeitler: B. Zeitler’s play may have slipped a bit, but the 30-year-old remained a reliable, durable, low-maintenance player. The Giants have a big decision looming on Zeitler and his $14.5 million cap hit for 2021. • Incomplete: Jackson Barton, Kyle Murphy, Spencer Pulley, Chad Slade. The line stayed remarkably healthy aside from a few COVID-19 related absences, so these backups never got an opportunity to play. DEFENSIVE LINE • B.J. Hill: B. Hill was effective in a limited role after being relegated to backup duty by the additions of Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams last year. Hill has another year on his rookie deal so he provides an insurance policy if Williams or Dalvin Tomlinson leave in free agency. • Austin Johnson: B+. Johnson was a perfect fit in the role he was signed to fill. He was solid against the run and made a few big plays early in the season. He’s worth bringing back on a similar low-cost deal. • Dexter Lawrence: B+. I predicted Lawrence would have four sacks after recording 2.5 as a rookie. He hit that total, as he made strides as a pass rusher. Lawrence’s strength remains run defense. The 23-year-old is a solid piece in the middle of the defense to build around. • Dalvin Tomlinson: A-. The Giants know exactly what they’re getting from Tomlinson: A strong run defender who will be in the lineup every week and be a positive influence in the locker room. Tomlinson continues to show more as a pass rusher, recording 3.5 sacks for the second consecutive season and setting a career-high with 28 pressures. Tomlinson has earned a big free-agent contract; the question is if he’ll get it from the Giants. • Leonard Williams: A+. This was the player the Jets thought they were getting with the sixth pick in the 2015 draft. Williams broke through with a career-high 11.5 sacks in his sixth season. Williams has always pressured quarterbacks, but sacks get players paid and he’s now in line for a deal worth $20 million per year. He’s young and durable, which will help the Giants feel comfortable making that type of commitment, although there should be an understanding that his sack production is likely unsustainable. • Incomplete: R.J. McIntosh. The defensive line didn’t suffer any injuries so McIntosh was a healthy scratch all season. OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS • Lorenzo Carter: B. Carter looked like a good fit in Patrick Graham’s defense before tearing his Achilles in Week 5. But there still haven’t been any signs that he’ll ever be a top edge rusher. Carter could be a solid complement to a No. 1 edge rusher, which is a reasonable return for a third-round pick. • Carter Coughlin: B. Injuries at edge rusher forced Coughlin into a bigger role than expected as a rookie. He flashed potential, although the seventh-round pick’s limitations were evident in an expanded role. Coughlin could grow into a Kyler Fackrell type of player. • Kyler Fackrell: B-. Fackrell made a few splash plays early, but he was quiet in the second half of the season before missing four games with a calf injury. The Giants got a decent return on the prove-it deal they gave Fackrell, but he’s not a difference maker. • Markus Golden: B. The coaching staff showed no interest in Golden, dating back to when he sat in free agency until the team applied the seldom used unrestricted free agent tender. Golden was a productive pass rusher in limited opportunities despite being buried behind less accomplished players before a midseason trade to Arizona. • Jabaal Sheard: C+. The Giants needed a legitimate NFL edge defender after injuries and the Golden trade decimated the position. Sheard made a few plays, most notably a late strip sack in a win over the Bengals, but otherwise made minimal impact. • Incomplete: Oshane Ximines, Cam Brown, Niko Lalos, Trent Harris. Ximines had a quiet start before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4. Brown made a solid impression on special teams and flashed pass rush potential in limited opportunities, but he needs to get bigger to be an impactful player on defense. Lalos turned heads with a pair of takeaways in his first two games, but he didn’t get enough playing time to make a bigger impact. INSIDE LINEBACKERS • Tae Crowder: B. Considering he was Mr. Irrelevant, it was impressive that Crowder started six games next to Blake Martinez at inside linebacker. Crowder showed promise, particularly with his speed. But there’s plenty of room for improvement when it comes to taking on blocks and filling gaps consistently. Giants fans should be careful not to go overboard with expectations for Crowder as happened with Ryan Connelly a year ago. • Devante Downs: C-. It’s hard to understand what the staff saw to make Downs a starter out of training camp. Downs’ performance was what was expected from a player who didn’t play a single defensive snap in first two NFL seasons. Downs needs to be a backup in the future. • Blake Martinez: A. I predicted 140 tackles for Martinez; he was even more productive, finishing third in the league with 151 tackles. There was some skepticism about the three-year, $30.75 million contract the Giants gave Martinez in the offseason, but he was better than expected. In addition to being a tackling machine, Martinez was effective as a blitzer and wasn’t a liability in coverage. Martinez gives the Giants an ultra-reliable leader in the middle of their defense. • David Mayo: C. Mayo shifted back to the reserve role that he’s suited for. The coaching staff oddly tried to use Mayo on the edge at times but he didn’t have the ability to fill that role. • Incomplete: TJ Brunson. Brunson played a handful of special teams snaps in a few games, but mostly was a healthy scratch. CORNERBACKS • James Bradberry: A+. Imagine the Giants defense without Bradberry this season. If the nausea from that thought has passed, you can appreciate the impact Bradberry made in his first season in New York. Bradberry proved capable of eliminating opposing No. 1 receivers, although he wasn’t always asked to do so as the defense grew more zone heavy. Bradberry had three interceptions and 18 passes defensed, which ranked second in the league. Bradberry established himself as a premier cornerback after signing a three-year, $43.5 million contract with the Giants. • Darnay Holmes: B. Like most rookie corners, Holmes struggled early in the season. He started to find his groove before a knee injury cost him three games late in the season. Holmes was flagged too frequently, and his penalties always seemed to come in costly moments. Holmes’ role could be reduced by the Giants’ commitment at safety. • Ryan Lewis: C+. Lewis was signed because he’s a favorite of Patrick Graham. Lewis added some stability to the No. 2 corner spot, but he got beat deep late in losses to Dallas and Philadelphia. Lewis suffered a hamstring injury in Week 8 and missed the rest of the season. He’s best suited as a backup. • Isaac Yiadom: B-. The Giants’ desperation at cornerback prompted a trade of a seventh-round pick to Denver for Yiadom late in camp. Yiadom struggled early in the season before providing some solid play after getting a second chance midway through the season. Yiadom was benched for the season finale after his play regressed. Like Lewis, Yiadom should be viewed as a backup. • Incomplete: Madre Harper, Brandon Williams, Jarren Williams, Corey Ballentine. The Giants’ plan to start Ballentine at No. 2 corner was doomed from the outset and he was benched after two games and then cut in Week 10. SAFETIES • Julian Love: B. Love is the defensive version of Gallman. The coaching staffs in each of the past two seasons have been hesitant to play Love, but he’s been solid when given opportunities. Love filled in admirably twice at cornerback late in the season. He lacks the speed to be a full-time answer at corner, but he should be the ideal backup to Logan Ryan as a defensive back who can fill multiple roles. • Jabrill Peppers: B+. Peppers had the best season of his career, showing flashes reminiscent of Landon Collins when the former Giant was on top of his game. Peppers was a physical presence around the line of scrimmage and a punishing tackler when he lined up ball carriers. Peppers is never going to be great in coverage, but this staff minimized his one-on-one matchups and he seemed more comfortable in the zone-heavy scheme. Peppers was productive as a punt returner and he brings an energy that the defense needs. • Logan Ryan: B+. Ryan earned an A+ in intangibles, serving as a great model for younger players and providing vocal leadership buttressed by a pair of Super Bowl rings. Ryan was extension of coordinator Patrick Graham on the field, while his versatility allowed for varied looks defensively week-to-week. Ryan’s actual play was a bit uneven at times. He displayed a knack for big plays, particularly with forcing turnovers, but his tackling was spotty. • Incomplete: Xavier McKinney, Nate Ebner, Adrian Colbert, Montre Hartage, Sean Chandler. McKinney provided a glimpse of his potential in the final six games after missing the first 10 games of his rookie season with a broken foot. Ebner’s limited defensive playing time reinforced that he should only be a special teamer. SPECIALISTS • Riley Dixon: C. It was a disappointing season for Dixon, who had been consistent in his first two seasons with the Giants. Dixon didn’t have the same knack for pinning opponents deep (9.2 percent of punts for touchbacks this season compared to 2.9 percent in 2019). That decline can partly be attributed to subpar gunners in coverage, but the Giants need Dixon to get back on track. • Graham Gano: A+. Gano was lights out. His lone missed field goal was a 57-yarder in Week 2. He then made a franchise record 30 straight field goals. Gano made 5 of 6 field goals from 50-plus yards making him a weapon for a low-scoring team. • Casey Kreiter: A. Kreiter’s name wasn’t mentioned once all season. That’s evidence of a job well done for a long snapper. COACH/GM • Joe Judge: A-. Since I’m weighing preseason expectations, Judge grades out well. I predicted the Giants would win five games so 6-10 can’t be viewed as a disappointment for Judge. Think about the obstacles he was facing as a first-time head coach in an unprecedented season with a flawed roster. Judge took charge from Day 1 and impressively got players to buy in, even when the team started 1-7. Judge dealt with brushfires — suspending Tate, firing offensive line coach Marc Colombo — but always seemed in control. His game management was sound, although he skewed conservative on fourth downs. The defensive coaching was stellar and it’s clear that Judge and Graham have an excellent working relationship. On the other side, Judge assumes some responsibility for the No. 31 scoring offense and he needs to get that fixed for next season. Judge succeeded in laying a foundation in his first season. The grading curve will get steeper next season when there will be higher expectations for tangible results. • Dave Gettleman: B. Gettleman gets an A+ for free agency, as Bradberry, Martinez, Ryan and Gano were game-changing additions. The draft is harder to assess. Many of the rookies played this season, but none were clear stars. Time will tell on this draft class. Gettleman’s grade is lower than Judge’s since this wasn’t his first season. It’s impossible to separate previous years when assessing a general manager. And the many holes on the roster that Judge had to compensate for is a reflection of the job Gettleman has done in his three years as GM. Co-owner John Mara is encouraged by the working relationship of Gettleman and Judge. Their first year together was promising, but Gettleman needs another strong offseason to overcome the errors of his past.
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How many people really understand what they’re buying, especially when it comes to highly specialized hardware companies? Most NVidia investors seem to be relying on a vague idea of how the company should thrive “in the future”, as their GPUs are ostensibly used for Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, holograms, etc. Having been shocked by how this company is represented in the media, I decided to lay out how this business works, doing my part to fight for reality. With what’s been going on in markets, I don’t like my chances but here goes: Let’s start with… How does NVDA make money? NVDA is in the business of semiconductor design. As a simplified image in your head, you can imagine this as designing very detailed and elaborate posters. Their engineers create circuit patterns for printing onto semiconductor wafers. NVDA then pays a semiconductor foundry (the printer – generally TSMC) to create chips with those patterns on them. Simply put, NVDA’s profits represent the difference between the price at which they can sell those chips, less the cost of printing, and less the cost of paying their engineers to design them. Notably, after the foundry prints the chips, NVDA also has to pay (I say pay, but really it is more like “sell at a discount to”) their “add-in board” (AIB) partners to stick the chips onto printed circuit boards (what you might imagine as green things with a bunch of capacitors on them). That leads to the final form in which buyers experience the GPU. What is a GPU? NVDA designs chips called GPUs (Graphical Processing Units). Initially, GPUs were used for the rapid processing and creation of images, but their use cases have expanded over time. You may be familiar with the CPU (Central Processing Unit). CPUs sit at the core of a computer system, doing most of the calculation, taking orders from the operating system (e.g. Windows, Linux), etc. AMD and Intel make CPUs. GPUs assist the CPU with certain tasks. You can think of the CPU as having a few giant very powerful engines. The GPU has a lot of small much less powerful engines. Sometimes you have to do a lot of really simple tasks that don’t require powerful engines to complete. Here, the act of engaging the powerful engines is a waste of time, as you end up spending most of your time revving them up and revving them down. In that scenario, it helps the CPU to hand that task over to the GPU in order to “accelerate” the completion of the task. The GPU only revs up a small engine for each task, and is able to rev up all the small engines simultaneously to knock out a large number of these simple tasks at the same time. Remember the GPU has lots of engines. The GPU also has an edge in interfacing a lot with memory but let’s not get too technical. Who uses NVDA’s GPUs? There are two main broad end markets for NVDA’s GPUs – Gaming and Professional. Let’s dig into each one: The Gaming Market: A Bit of Ancient History (Skip if impatient) GPUs were first heavily used for gaming in arcades. They then made their way to consoles, and finally PCs. NVDA started out in the PC phase of GPU gaming usage. They weren’t the first company in the space, but they made several good moves that ultimately led to a very strong market position. Firstly, they focused on selling into OEMs – guys like the equivalent of today’s DELL/HP/Lenovo – , which allowed a small company to get access to a big market without having to create a lot of relationships. Secondly, they focused on the design aspect of the GPU, and relied on their Asian supply chain to print the chip, to package the chip and to install in on a printed circuit board – the Asian supply chain ended up being the best in semis. But the insight that really let NVDA dominate was noticing that some GPU manufacturers were focusing on keeping hardware-accelerated Transform and Lighting as a Professional GPU feature. As a start-up, with no professional GPU business to disrupt, NVidia decided their best ticket into the big leagues was blowing up the market by including this professional grade feature into their gaming product. It worked – and this was a real masterstroke – the visual and performance improvements were extraordinary. 3DFX, the initial leader in PC gaming GPUs, was vanquished, and importantly it happened when funding markets shut down with the tech bubble bursting and after 3DFX made some large ill-advised acquisitions. Consequently 3DFX, went from hero to zero, and NVDA bought them for a pittance out of bankruptcy, acquiring the best IP portfolio in the industry. Some more Modern History This is what NVDA’s pure gaming card revenue looks like over time – NVDA only really broke these out in 2005 (note by pure, this means ex-Tegra revenues): 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394577731223552/tumblr_Ikb8g9Cu9sxh2ERno So what is the history here? Well, back in the late 90s when GPUs were first invented, they were required to play any 3D game. As discussed in the early history above, NVDA landed a hit product to start with early and got a strong burst of growth: revenues of 160M in 1998 went to 1900M in 2002. But then NVDA ran into strong competition from ATI (later purchased and currently owned by AMD). While NVDA’s sales struggled to stay flat from 2002 to 2004, ATI’s doubled from 1Bn to 2Bn. NVDA’s next major win came in 2006, with the 8000 series. ATI was late with a competing product, and NVDA’s sales skyrocketed – as can be seen in the graph above. With ATI being acquired by AMD they were unfocused for some time, and NVDA was able to keep their lead for an extended period. Sales slowed in 2008/2009 but that was due to the GFC – people don’t buy expensive GPU hardware in recessions. And then we got to 2010 and the tide changed. Growth in desktop PCs ended. Here is a chart from Statista: 📷https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394674172919808/tumblr_OgCnNwTyqhMhAE9r9 This resulted in two negative secular trends for Nvidia. Firstly, with the decline in popularity of desktop PCs, growth in gaming GPUs faded as well (below is a chart from Jon Peddie). Note that NVDA sells discrete GPUs, aka DT (Desktop) Discrete. Integrated GPUs are mainly made by Intel (these sit on the motherboard or with the CPU). 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394688079200256/tumblr_rTtKwOlHPIVUj8e7h You can see from the chart above that discrete desktop GPU sales are fading faster than integrated GPU sales. This is the other secular trend hurting NVDA’s gaming business. Integrated GPUs are getting better and better, taking over a wider range of tasks that were previously the domain of the discrete GPU. Surprisingly, the most popular eSports game of recent times – Fortnite – only requires Intel HD 4000 graphics – an Integrated GPU from 2012! So at this point you might go back to NVDA’s gaming sales, and ask the question: What happened in 2015? How is NVDA overcoming these secular trends? The answer consists of a few parts.Firstly, AMD dropped the ball in 2015. As you can see in this chart, sourced from 3DCenter, AMD market share was halved in 2015, due to a particularly poor product line-up: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394753459994624/tumblr_J7vRw9y0QxMlfm6Xd Following this, NVDA came out with Pascal in 2016 – a very powerful offering in the mid to high end part of the GPU market. At the same time, AMD was focusing on rebuilding and had no compelling mid or high end offerings. AMD mainly focused on maintaining scale in the very low end. Following that came 2017 and 2018: AMD’s offering was still very poor at the time, but cryptomining drove demand for GPUs to new levels, and AMD’s GPUs were more compelling from a price-performance standpoint for crypto mining initially, perversely leading to AMD gaining share. NVDA quickly remedied that by improving their drivers to better mine crypto, regaining their relative positioning, and profiting in a big way from the crypto boom. Supply that was calibrated to meet gaming demand collided with cryptomining demand and Average Selling Prices of GPUs shot through the roof. Cryptominers bought top of the line GPUs aggressively. A good way to see changes in crypto demand for GPUs is the mining profitability of Ethereum: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394769378443264/tumblr_cmBtR9gm8T2NI9jmQ This leads us to where we are today. 2019 saw gaming revenues drop for NVDA. Where are they likely to head? The secular trends of falling desktop sales along with falling discrete GPU sales have reasserted themselves, as per the Jon Peddie research above. Cryptomining profitability has collapsed. AMD has come out with a new architecture, NAVI, and the 5700XT – the first Iteration, competes effectively with NVDA in the mid-high end space on a price/performance basis. This is the first real competition from AMD since 2014. NVDA can see all these trends, and they tried to respond. Firstly, with volumes clearly declining, and likely with a glut of second-hand GPUs that can make their way to gamers over time from the crypto space, NVDA decided to pursue a price over volume strategy. They released their most expensive set of GPUs by far in the latest Turing series. They added a new feature, Ray Tracing, by leveraging the Tensor Cores they had created for Professional uses, hoping to use that as justification for higher prices (more on this in the section on Professional GPUs). Unfortunately for NVDA, gamers have responded quite poorly to Ray Tracing – it caused performance issues, had poor support, poor adoption, and the visual improvements in most cases are not particularly noticeable or relevant. The last recession led to gaming revenues falling 30%, despite NVDA being in a very strong position at the time vis-à-vis AMD – this time around their position is quickly slipping and it appears that the recession is going to be bigger. Additionally, the shift away from discrete GPUs in gaming continues. To make matters worse for NVDA, AMD won the slots in both the New Xbox and the New PlayStation, coming out later this year. The performance of just the AMD GPU in those consoles looks to be competitive with NVidia products that currently retail for more than the entire console is likely to cost. Consider that usually you have to pair that NVidia GPU with a bunch of other expensive hardware. The pricing and margin impact of this console cycle on NVDA is likely to be very substantially negative. It would be prudent to assume a greater than 30% fall in gaming revenues from the very elevated 2019 levels, with likely secular decline to follow. The Professional Market: A Bit of Ancient History (again, skip if impatient) As it turns out, graphical accelerators were first used in the Professional market, long before they were employed for Gaming purposes. The big leader in the space was a company called Silicon Graphics, who sold workstations with custom silicon optimised for graphical processing. Their sales were only $25Mn in 1985, but by 1997 they were doing 3.6Bn in revenue – truly exponential growth. Unfortunately for them, from that point on, discrete GPUs took over, and their highly engineered, customised workstations looked exorbitantly expensive in comparison. Sales sank to 500mn by 2006 and, with no profits in sight, they ended up filing for bankruptcy in 2009. Competition is harsh in the semiconductor industry. Initially, the Professional market centred on visualisation and design, but it has changed over time. There were a lot of players and lot of nuance, but I am going to focus on more recent times, as they are more relevant to NVidia. Some More Modern History NVDA’s Professional business started after its gaming business, but we don’t have revenue disclosures that show exactly when it became relevant. This is what we do have – going back to 2005: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394785029472256/tumblr_fEcYAzdstyh6tqIsI In the beginning, Professional revenues were focused on the 3D visualisation end of the spectrum, with initial sales going into workstations that were edging out the customised builds made by Silicon Graphics. Fairly quickly, however, GPUs added more and more functionality and started to turn into general parallel data processors rather than being solely optimised towards graphical processing. As this change took place, people in scientific computing noticed, and started using GPUs to accelerate scientific workloads that involve very parallel computation, such as matrix manipulation. This started at the workstation level, but by 2007 NVDA decided to make a new line-up of Tesla series cards specifically suited to scientific computing. The professional segment now have several points of focus:
GPUs used in workstations for things such as CAD graphical processing (Quadro Line)
GPUs used in workstations for computational workloads such as running engineering simulations (Quadro Line)
GPUs used in workstations for machine learning applications (Quadro line.. but can use gaming cards as well for this)
GPUs used by enterprise customers for high performance computing (such as modelling oil wells) (Tesla Line)
GPUs used by enterprise customers for machine learning projects (Tesla Line)
GPUs used by hyperscalers (mostly for machine learning projects) (Tesla Line)
In more recent times, given the expansion of the Tesla line, NVDA has broken up reporting into Professional Visualisation (Quadro Line) and Datacenter (Tesla Line). Here are the revenue splits since that reporting started: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394798232158208/tumblr_3AdufrCWUFwLgyQw2 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394810632601600/tumblr_2jmajktuc0T78Juw7 It is worth stopping here and thinking about the huge increase in sales delivered by the Tesla line. The reason for this huge boom is the sudden increase in interest in numerical techniques for machine learning. Let’s go on a brief detour here to understand what machine learning is, because a lot of people want to hype it but not many want to tell you what it actually is. I have the misfortune of being very familiar with the industry, which prevented me from buying into the hype. Oops – sometimes it really sucks being educated. What is Machine Learning? At a very high level, machine learning is all about trying to get some sort of insight out of data. Most of the core techniques used in machine learning were developed a long time ago, in the 1950s and 1960s. The most common machine learning technique, which most people have heard of and may be vaguely familiar with, is called regression analysis. Regression analysis involves fitting a line through a bunch of datapoints. The most common type of regression analysis is called “Ordinary Least Squares” OLS regression, and that type of regression has a “closed form” solution, which means that there is a very simple calculation you can do to fit an OLS regression line to data. As it happens, fitting a line through points is not only easy to do, it also tends to be the main machine learning technique that people want to use, because it is very intuitive. You can make good sense of what the data is telling you and can understand the machine learning model you are using. Obviously, regression analysis doesn’t require a GPU! However, there is another consideration in machine learning: if you want to use a regression model, you still need a human to select the data that you want to fit the line through. Also, sometimes the relationship doesn’t look like a line, but rather it might look like a curve. In this case, you need a human to “transform” the data before you fit a line through it in order to make the relationship linear. So people had another idea here: what if instead of getting a person to select the right data to analyse, and the right model to apply, you could just get a computer to do that? Of course the problem with that is that computers are really stupid. They have no preconceived notion of what data to use or what relationship would make sense, so what they do is TRY EVERYTHING! And everything involves trying a hell of a lot of stuff. And trying a hell of a lot of stuff, most of which is useless garbage, involves a huge amount of computation. People tried this for a while through to the 1980s, decided it was useless, and dropped it… until recently. What changed? Well we have more data now, and we have a lot more computing power, so we figured lets have another go at it. As it happens, the premier technique for trying a hell of a lot of stuff (99.999% of which is garbage you throw away) is called “Deep Learning”. Deep learning is SUPER computationally intensive, and that computation happens to involve a lot of matrix multiplication. And guess what just happens to have been doing a lot of matrix multiplication? GPUs! Here is a chart that, for obvious reasons, lines up extremely well with the boom in Tesla GPU sales: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394825774989312/tumblr_IZ3ayFDB0CsGdYVHW Now we need to realise a few things here. Deep Learning is not some magic silver bullet. There are specific applications where it has proven very useful – primarily areas that have a very large number of very weak relationships between bits of data that sum up into strong relationships. An example of ones of those is Google Translate. On the other hand, in most analytical tasks, it is most useful to have an intuitive understanding of the data and to fit a simple and sensible model to it that is explainable. Deep learning models are not explainable in an intuitive manner. This is not only because they are complicated, but also because their scattershot technique of trying everything leaves a huge amount of garbage inside the model that cancels itself out when calculating the answer, but it is hard to see how it cancels itself out when stepping through it. Given the quantum of hype on Deep learning and the space in general, many companies are using “Deep Learning”, “Machine Learning” and “AI” as marketing. Not many companies are actually generating significant amounts of tangible value from Deep Learning. Back to the Competitive Picture For the Tesla Segment So NVDA happened to be in the right place at the right time to benefit from the Deep Learning hype. They happened to have a product ready to go and were able to charge a pretty penny for their product. But what happens as we proceed from here? Firstly, it looks like the hype from Deep Learning has crested, which is not great from a future demand perspective. Not only that, but we really went from people having no GPUs, to people having GPUs. The next phase is people upgrading their old GPUs. It is much harder to sell an upgrade than to make the first sale. Not only that, but GPUs are not the ideal manifestation of silicon for Deep Learning. NVDA themselves effectively admitted that with their latest iteration in the Datacentre, called Ampere. High Performance Computing, which was the initial use case for Tesla GPUs, was historically all about double precision floating point calculations (FP64). High precision calculations are required for simulations in aerospace/oil & gas/automotive. NVDA basically sacrificed HPC and shifted further towards Deep Learning with Ampere, announced last Thursday. The FP64 performance of the A100 (the latest Ampere chip) increased a fairly pedestrian 24% from the V100, increasing from 7.8 to 9.7 TF. Not a surprise that NVDA lost El Capitan to AMD, given this shift away from a focus on HPC. Instead, NVDA jacked up their Tensor Cores (i.e. not the GPU cores) and focused very heavily on FP16 computation (a lot less precise than FP64). As it turns out, FP16 is precise enough for Deep Learning, and NVDA recognises that. The future industry standard is likely to be BFloat 16 – the format pioneered by Google, who lead in Deep Learning. Ampere now does 312 TF of BF16, which compares to the 420 TF of Google’s TPU V3 – Google’s Machine Learning specific processor. Not quite up to the 2018 board from Google, but getting better – if they cut out all of the Cuda cores and GPU functionality maybe they could get up to Google’s spec. And indeed this is the problem for NVDA: when you make a GPU it has a large number of different use cases, and you provide a single product that meets all of these different use cases. That is a very hard thing to do, and explains why it has been difficult for competitors to muscle into the GPU space. On the other hand, when you are making a device that does one thing, such as deep learning, it is a much simpler thing to do. Google managed to do it with no GPU experience and is still ahead of NVDA. It is likely that Intel will be able to enter this space successfully, as they have widely signalled with the Xe. There is of course the other large negative driver for Deep Learning, and that is the recession we are now in. Demand for GPU instances on Amazon has collapsed across the board, as evidenced by the fall in pricing. The below graph shows one example: this data is for renting out a single Tesla V100 GPU on AWS, which isthe typical thing to do in an early exploratory phase for a Deep Learning model: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618396177958944768/tumblr_Q86inWdeCwgeakUvh With Deep Learning not delivering near-term tangible results, it is the first thing being cut. On their most recent conference call, IBM noted weakness in their cognitive division (AI), and noted weaker sales of their power servers, which is the line that houses Enterprise GPU servers at IBM. Facebook cancelled their AI residencies for this year, and Google pushed theirs out. Even if NVDA can put in a good quarter due to their new product rollout (Ampere), the future is rapidly becoming a very stormy place. For the Quadro segment The Quadro segment has been a cash cow for a long time, generating dependable sales and solid margins. AMD just decided to rock the boat a bit. Sensing NVDA’s focus on Deep Learning, AMD seems to be focusing on HPC – the Radeon VII announced recently with a price point of $1899 takes aim at NVDAs most expensive Quadro, the GV100, priced at $8999. It does 6.5 TFLOPS of FP64 Double precision, whereas the GV100 does 7.4 – talk about shaking up a quiet segment. Pulling things together Let’s go back to what NVidia fundamentally does – paying their engineers to design chips, getting TSMC to print those chips, and getting board partners in Taiwan to turn them into the final product. We have seen how a confluence of several pieces of extremely good fortune lined up to increase NVidia’s sales and profits tremendously: first on the Gaming side, weak competition from AMD until 2014, coupled with a great product in form of Pascal in 2016, followed by a huge crypto driven boom in 2017 and 2018, and on the Professional side, a sudden and unexpected increase in interest in Deep Learning driving Tesla demand from 2017-2019 sky high. It is worth noting what these transient factors have done to margins. When unexpected good things happen to a chip company, sales go up a lot, but there are no costs associated with those sales. Strong demand means that you can sell each chip for a higher price, but no additional design work is required, and you still pay the printer, TSMC, the same amount of money. Consequently NVDA’s margins have gone up substantially: well above their 11.9% long term average to hit a peak of 33.2%, and more recently 26.5%: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618396192166100992/tumblr_RiWaD0RLscq4midoP The question is, what would be a sensible margin going forward? Obviously 33% operating margin would attract a wall of competition and get competed away, which is why they can only be temporary. However, NVidia has shifted to having a greater proportion of its sales coming from non-OEM, and has a greater proportion of its sales coming from Professional rather than gaming. As such, maybe one can be generous and say NVDA can earn an 18% average operating margin over the next cycle. We can sense check these margins, using Intel. Intel has a long term average EBIT margin of about 25%. Intel happens to actually print the chips as well, so they collect a bigger fraction of the final product that they sell. NVDA, since it only does the design aspect, can’t earn a higher EBIT margin than Intel on average over the long term. Tesla sales have likely gone too far and will moderate from here – perhaps down to a still more than respectable $2bn per year. Gaming resumes the long-term slide in discrete GPUs, which will likely be replaced by integrated GPUs to a greater and greater extent over time. But let’s be generous and say it maintains $3.5 Bn Per year for the add in board, and let’s assume we keep getting $750mn odd of Nintendo Switch revenues(despite that product being past peak of cycle, with Nintendo themselves forecasting a sales decline). Let’s assume AMD struggles to make progress in Quadro, despite undercutting NVDA on price by 75%, with continued revenues at $1200. Add on the other 1.2Bn of Automotive, OEM and IP (I am not even counting the fact that car sales have collapsed and Automotive is likely to be down big), and we would end up with revenues of $8.65 Bn, at an average operating margin of 20% through the cycle that would have $1.75Bn of operating earnings power, and if I say that the recent Mellanox acquisition manages to earn enough to pay for all the interest on NVDAs debt, and I assume a tax rate of 15% we would have around $1.5Bn in Net income. This company currently has a market capitalisation of $209 Bn. It blows my mind that it trades on 139x what I consider to be fairly generous earnings – earnings that NVidia never even got close to seeing before the confluence of good luck hit them. But what really stuns me is the fact that investors are actually willing to extrapolate this chain of unlikely and positive events into the future. Shockingly, Intel has a market cap of 245Bn, only 40Bn more than NVDA, but Intel’s sales and profits are 7x higher. And while Intel is facing competition from AMD, it is much more likely to hold onto those sales and profits than NVDA is. These are absolutely stunning valuation disparities. If I didn’t see NVDA’s price, and I started from first principles and tried to calculate a prudent price for the company I would have estimated a$1.5Bn normalised profit, maybe on a 20x multiple giving them the benefit of the doubt despite heading into a huge recession, and considering the fact that there is not much debt and the company is very well run. That would give you a market cap of $30Bn, and a share price of $49. And it is currently $339. Wow. Obviously I’m short here!
We often get a lot of posts complaining about the cost to complete tournements and events, lack of goodies for FTP etc... but I gather those vent sessions like shouting into the wind. Plarium is a for-profit company, and they've chosen to run this game in a manner that works to maximize profits through whales. With that said, I see a number of ways that Plarium can improve gameplay for users while also improving their revenue base, or improve game quality of life without imparing existing revenue. My thought is that the community would be better served to identify so-called "win\wins" and push for those specific improvements. Here is my list: QOL improvements that may lower quit rates
roll out stage 20 for potions & minitaur - increased energy usage partially/largely offsets increased drop rates, but mid/end game players don't have to spend significant time running these dungeons.
increase the number of EXP postions when dropped - Currently getting 1 is a slap in the face... 4-5 exp potions don't change game economics but will make players feel better.
Remove tail risk from artifact upgrades - After X failed rolls to upgrade, your chances of success can slowly and very marginally start to increase. The average rolls for success can even be kept unchanged by marginally lowering success rates overall. The end result is to remove the risk of that 40 rolls to go from 15 to 16 that costs 3 million for a banner. I would guess that anyone that has experience a truely terrible set of bad luck rolls from level 15 to 16 on an accesory has thought about quitting. Some, including spenders, almost surely have quit.
rearrange quests - covered ad naseum, but worth repeating. Maybe upcoming promised arena fixes address this, but all arena quests are significantly hard to achieve than other quests and represent an odd roadblock.
Improve Gem production rates with gem mine - 5 with first upgrade, 15 with second, 30 with third (currently 5/10/15). Users will be more likely to invest gems (aka buy gers with $$$).
Revenue Generating Win/Wins for Plarium Plarium's current business model is similar to a casino where the high roller area takes up about 80% of the real estate of the casino. This contrasts with the modern business model that; while still keenly focused on whales, also has a plethora of other offerings to the masses. Plarium needs to expand it's mass appearl offerings (please refrain from what about FTP players, plarium wants to make $$, lets accept it). spending $20 a month should allow for more consistent game playing then it does now. $10 for the Raid card + $10 for the monthly gem package would get more consistent buyers if it facilitated more game play. Currently the gem package + gem mine + daily refills + random other refills (events, tournement, login, etc... ) rarely facilitate completing the 100 runs on auto... ergo the primary pass benefit is useless... also users instead use scripts to auto.
half price gear removal once a month - users will probably waste more silver, since they will be more likely to de-gear and optimize.
Raid Pass - buyers get reduced the time for energy replensish from 2 to 3 minutes. A modest 240 increase in energy per day, but a real benefit.
Refills - Reduce refills from 40 to 30 gems - between gem mine, daily rewards, and the monthly gem pack, and misc refills, you now have enough energy daily to justify the raid pass autos, which will increase purchase rate of the raid pass.
Greatly increase lower value rewards in tournements and events - Congrats, you wone 5,000 "units" at the slot machine... but it's a penny slot. The revenue model works. More rare skill tombs, more silver, more exp potions, more double exp, more mystery shards (with added feature for 100 myster shards = 1 Ancient shard), etc... Moderately increase other items such as ancient shards, void shards, epic books, etc... tl;dr - Make it so that FTP and low pay customers have plenty of goodies to win, even if they've no hope of getting everything/high valued items without saving.
What about lost revenue from devauled goodies? - if smart, there won't be. Keep super high value items at current value/rarity. Whales will keep spending for sacred shards and legendary books. Introduce even higher value items to further entice whales... ie an "ideal shard" that gaurantees a legendary, or anchient void that gaurantees epic/legendary void.
A mini guide to Mardu Dredge in PD S18 I’ve been playing a lot of Penny Dreadfull this season and the deck I like the best so far is dredge. After having played it for years in modern, it's an archetype I’m very comfortable with. So when both Golgari Grave-Troll and Stinkweed Imp were confirmed legal I was excited to get to play with them. My first experiment with dredge was the Jund Squee dredge deck (see my deck tech video here). Later I saw some people having success with Mardu dredge and I decided I wanted to try that out as well. After my first tries with copied lists I decided I wanted to streamline the Mardu list as much as possible. Gone is the cute stuff like dread return for sire of insanity, I’ve also gotten rid of the awkward Ashen Ghoul. The dread return package was seldom useful. Most common scenario was that you would dredge over one and not the other and then those cards are essentially blanks. You cannot reliably dredge over your entire deck fast enough each game and if you do, you don’t really need much more help. Ashen ghoul was a little better but also not consistent enough, in the face of graveyard hate it was also always the first card to side out (if your opponent is removing your graveyard it’s unlikely to ever have enough creatures on top of it). I decided to fill the open slots with more enablers, to increase the consistency of the deck and your opening hands. Any opening hand that doesn’t contain an enabler + a dredger is a mulligan. If your enabler is a shriekhorn then you don’t need the dredger as the horn can try to find it for you. Most lists I saw were on 10 enablers. 4 shriekhorn, 4 cathartic reunion and 2 insolent neonate. From my experience with modern dredge I’d say you want at least 12. So I have added an extra Neonate and also a thrill of possibility. Thrill drawing 2 cards makes up for the fact that it’s a little slower as a 2 cmc card. If you discard a dredger and get lucky and find a second dredger on your first draw it can be quite powerful. I also saw some lists that were only running 1 darkblast. I think 10 dredgers is the minimum amount of dredgers you want and I have actually considered going up to 11. Just to make the deck as consistent as possible. You want to keep the dredge chain going by dredging into dredgers. The more cards with dredge you run, the higher the chance of doing so. Darkblast only dredging 3 ultimately made it too weak for me but I could see changing my mind on this in the future. After doing this I had one slot left for a fun off. I’ve decided to go with First-Sphere Gargantua. It can help you speed up when you don’t have any additional card draw anymore and you are just dredging once per turn. This card lets you draw a card from your graveyard and get an extra dredge in, on top of attacking for 5. With the heavy burn focus of the mardu deck, a lava axe from the graveyard is not bad. This is the list I decided on. https://preview.redd.it/gthwyoglkiu51.png?width=1594&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7d099debaf0384d2b5ee9389ebdfd0246281a27 Opening hands As mentioned above in your opening hands you are looking for an enabler (cathartic reunion, insolent neonate, thrill of possibility or shriekhorn) and a dredger. Again in the case of shriekhorn a dredger is not needed. With your 7 and 6 card hands you also really want that dredger to be either a troll or an imp as darkblast simply isn’t powerful enough. If you have the above the next thing to consider is your mana. You want at least two lands and ideally those lands can make WR, Bx and RR. You need red to cast your enablers, white and red to be able to flashback smiting helix, black to be able to sac ghoul and return haunted dead (discarding dredgers) and finally RR to be able to flashback conflagrate. You can manage without double red and or black mana. But I’d say that RW is essential. Keep in mind that once you start dredging you ideally will not be taking any normal draw steps so the lands you have in your opener might be the only lands you’ll see for the entire game. Don’t be afraid to mulligan with this deck. You can easily mull to 4 and still win. I’ve even mulled to 3 and won. If you keep a non functioning 5, 6 or 7 you are much more likely to lose. So after you have settled on your opening hand you might need to put some cards on the bottom. I like keeping excess lands if possible as you are unlikely to draw any once you get going. I try to avoid bottoming Silversmote Ghoul as we don’t have any ways to shuffle our deck. So if the ghoul goes on the bottom, that’s one less ghoul to get dredge into and get back. Keep track of what you’ve put on the bottom of your deck. If I put a creeping chill on the bottom I make a mental note of this so I can consider that when trying to calculate odds of hitting one. Sideboarding Another important part of playing dredge is sideboarding. Luckily it’s much easier to do than in other formats because the hate is less punishing when you get it wrong. You can still power through stuff like tormod’s crypt, unlike rest in peace or leyline of the void. I’m not going to do a full sideboard guide for every matchup. There are too many decks to consider. I will give some general advice on what to board in and which cards you can take out. First of all, don’t overboard. Your deck is a synergistic machine, if you take out to many pieces the machine stops functioning. Just because your opponent is playing some creatures doesn’t mean you need to board lightning axe to kill them. Often you don’t actually care about their creatures. 3 Deafening Silence: good vs storm and other spell based combo decks. Those are your weakest matchups so it’s fine to have these as narrow cards. 2 Duress: good vs various combo decks. Don’t board these in vs counterspells or stuff like cling to dust. It will slow you down too much and you will need to take out other cards to be able to fit in duress. 2 Lightning Axe: great against creature deck or combo decks relying on creatures. Lightning axe also lets you discard a card so you can consider this as an enabler and take out insolent neonate to fit this in. 3 Nihil Spellbomb: to fight the mirror and reanimator decks. I like this over tormod’s crypt as I value the card draw on it. 3 Fragmentize: you’ll board this in a lot as an answer to common graveyard hate like tormod’s crypt and nihil spellbomb. Again, don’t board this in just because your opponent is running things you could destroy only do so if you actually care about those cards. 1 Ray of Revelation: it’s a dregeable answer to enchantments. Great vs Jeskai ascendancy and animate dead and stuff like runed halo etc. 1 Shenanigans: a dredgeable answer to common hate cards. The nice thing about shenanigans is that if you dredge into it your opponent will often have to blow their graveyard hate right there. Otherwise you dredge it, blow up their hate piece, which will result in them using it and that will leave your shenanigans in the graveyard for any future graveyard hate cards. Obviously also great vs affinity. What to cut? It’s important to keep the right balance of payoffs, dredgers and enablers. To me the below are cards you can trim: 2-3 insolent neonate 1 thrill of possibility 1-2 haunted dead 1-2 darkblasts 1 first-sphere gargantua 1 smiting helix The rest of the cards I would not touch. Always try to cut a little bit of everything between dredgers, enablers and payoffs. Tips and tricks
Remember that Silversmote ghoul can sacrifice itself to draw a card (and replace that with a dredge). This is useful in a couple of different ways. Firstly it’s good vs removal, especially removal that exiles. Secondly if you have already gained 3 life that turn you can sacrifice the ghoul, draw a card and dredge and you are guaranteed it will come back. Thirdly if you know you will not get another turn or your ghouls can no longer profitably attack you can use it to dredge and to look for burn to finish off your opponent.
Darkblast can kill 2 toughness creatures. If you have a darkblast in hand you can darkblast their creature on your upkeep, dredge the darkblast in your drawstep and then darkblast their creature again to finish it off. You do need two black mana for this but it can help you remove a flipped delver for example.
You often know exactly what is left in your deck. Sometimes you just need to deal the last points of damage and you know that if you dredge the last 2 chills in your deck you’ll win. Whereas if you draw one of them, you can’t cast it and you’ll lose. In those cases be conscious of which cards you are dredging and don’t just blindly go to dredge a Grave-Troll for 6 just to maximize your dredging for the turn. For example if you have 10 cards left in your library and you have 2 stinkweed imps and 2 grave-trolls in your graveyard you should be dredging the imps and not the trolls. If you dredge the troll you will not be able to dredge anymore that game and lose the chance of flipping chills if they are in the bottom 4 cards of the deck. Therefore you should dredge an imp twice and ensure you flip over your whole library.
Always have a stop on your upkeep. You often want to activate shriekhorn on your upkeep to look for a dredger. But also cast darkblast, lightning axe (discarding a dredger) or returning haunted dead (discarding dredgers).
Conflagrate can also be an enabler if needed. You can cast it for X = 0 and then flash it back, discarding dredgers to enable dredging them.
Stinkweed imp is an amazing blocker. It has deathtouch and can come back every turn. Some decks will have trouble attacking through this. Sometimes it’s better to dredge an imp over a troll and spend your turn and mana casting it.
It doesn't come up often but Golgari Grave-Troll can be cast and can actually be a sizable threat if you have a stocked graveyard. His regenerate ability also makes him really sticky. Alternatively you can also cast a Grave-Troll when you graveyard has no creatures in it, it will die and you will have a dredger in your graveyard again.
When you are facing graveyard hate and you don’t have removal for it it’s often correct to keep dredging and force them to use their hate card. However you don’t want to go to all in and lose all your cards forever. You want to create a situation where you graveyard is just threatening enough to force your opponent to react. This is also a real skill tester for your opponent when to use their hate. There’s a decent chance they get it wrong and you can capitalize on that.
Hope you found this mini primer informative. I will be putting out a league recording in the coming days so you can see me pilot the deck and put all this theory into practice. If you ever have any questions about this deck or any others you see me play, feel free to reach out to me on MTGO or Discord.
what are the odds of winning on a penny slot machine video
It was true when three-reel games ruled slot floors, and it’s true now when the large majority of games are video slots: Dollar slots yield a higher payback percentage than quarter slots, which may more than nickel slots, which pay more than penny games.That doesn’t mean everyone should rush out and play dollar slots. There are factors beyond payback percentage, including entertainment ... What penny slot machines have the best odds? Generally, if you want a penny slot machine with the best odds, you should aim at those with RTP over 97%. Your odds of winning are better than this, as you can hit five bells, five whistles or five of any other set of symbols, so on this machine your odds of any set of five are actually 5 x 0.032%, or 0.16%. So once in every 625 spins of this hypothetical machine, you’ll hit your set of five identical symbols for the jackpot. A simple example can help illustrate how this works. Suppose you have a slot machine with three reels with ten symbols on each, and it only pays out when three cherries hit. The odds of winning that jackpot, as we determined earlier, is 1/1000. Penny slot machines appeal to many players because they seem to offer the lowest cost to play. For just a cent, you could spin the reels and win big. Except, that’s not always how it works in ... Before moving to slot odds, it is important to know what a slot machine is. Slot machines are a game type with no winning strategy just like other casino games. It doesn’t require any proper knowledge or skills to get maximum profits by winning at slots. Slot machine odds are easy to calculate. If you are betting one penny per line, the amount you are wagering for each play is equal to the number of lines you play. For example, betting one penny per line and playing one line will cost you one penny per spin, but playing 20 lines will cost you 20 cents per spin. You will up the odds per spin while betting the same amount per line. This ranges from 96% to very fantastic numbers that can go up to 99%. If you take into consideration that some casino slots have return to play ranging from 80 and early 90% range, you will soon find out why these slot machines you ought to consider the next time you visit the best online casino. The odds of getting this combination are 1 in 8000. For a 5-reel slot machine the chances are even less: 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 1/ 3,200,000 (1 in 3,200,000). The slots probabilities are usually shown as a percentage, so for 3-reel and 5-reel slot machine with 20 symbols on each reel we have these probabilities:
what are the odds of winning on a penny slot machine top
