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My Options Overview / Guide (V2)

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.
​
I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:
Don't trade until you understand:
Basics / Mechanics
General Tips and Ideas:
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle
Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies
Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)
Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)
Reverse Iron Condor
LEAPs
PMCC / PMCP
Advanced Orders
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Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
submitted by CompulsionOSU to thetagang [link] [comments]

Tactical Nuclear Warheads and You: A Neheb, The Eternal Decklist/Primer

Hey you. Yeah, you. You tired of playing the same Golos deck, playing two lands a turn, drawing into your combo pieces, and winning while the entire table finishes War and Peace on their phones? You bored with your Sultai landfall deck, where you play solitaire for three hours? Board police getting too much to bear?
Well, let me introduce you to your new best friend: [[Neheb, the Eternal]].
Now, if you've never seen Neheb before, I know what you're thinking. "Wow, that card looks absolutely absurd", and buddy, you're right. Neheb decks aren't as much EDH decks as they are high-score attempts, seeing how much damage they can dish out in a single turn. Damage doublers, triplers, pingers that only go face, and enough X spells to make Zaxara cry in a little Sultai corner.
You want infinite combats? Neheb. You want to [[Comet Storm]] for 80? Neheb. You want to burn that lifegain deck right back to the pit it crawled out of? YOU WANT TO PUT THE FEAR OF GOD INTO ANYONE WHO DARES CONTINUE TO LIVE? N E H E B.
STEP ONE: RAMP
While Neheb himself is both a beeftank of a man and creates mana like he's eighty mountains strapped to a rocket sled, Neheb works best when he's out, and five mana isn't exactly cheap. So, what do we need? The standard rocks and ramp, like [[Sol Ring]], [[Wayfarer's Bauble]], [[Mind Stone]], [[Arcane Signet]], [[Ruby Medallion]], you get it. We do, however, run a few interesting ramp cards.
[[Cryptolith Fragment]] comes in tapped, sure, but once we have our big Lazotep Lasher out, we can tap it for one mana in the main phase, and three (3!) mana in the 2nd main phase. The good news is that if it transformed, something has gone horribly wrong, so we're not even gonna talk about the back. If it does flip, though, nine mana in the 2nd main isn't bad at all.
[[Everflowing Chalice]] isn't a rock, it's a bank. If you have a ton of mana floating in the second main, and you will, Everflowing Chalice is a way to keep some of it and use it on turns going forward. You can replace this with [[Horizon Stone]], I guess, but Everflowing is just a bit faster, and remember: Horizon Stone is based on Kruphix, and he's Simic, and we blow Simic players into small chunks. Oh, also, we have better Horizon Stone.
THAT'S RIGHT WE HAVE [[Leyline Tyrant]] BABY. You want to float mana? Leyline Tyrant. You want an evasive beater? Leyline Tyrant. You want protection from removal in the form of Leyline Tyrant choosing violence and blowing up someone's face? Ley. Line. Tyrant.
You want mana? You want it NOW? Cool. We got [[Seething Song]] and [[Jeska's Will]] for all your mana needs. Turn 2 Neheb is always a bucket of fun. Black can keep [[Dark Ritual]], I bet they're casting single target removal with it, what a bunch of nerds.
Our mana doubler is [[Extraplanar Lens]] and [[Snow-Covered Mountains]]. We want mana. Not them. If they have snow-covered mountains, blow them up first. Cowards.
[[Chandra, Torch of Defiance]] has two +1 abilities: gain red red, or deal two damage to each opponent, draw a card, and get six red mana. She's here for her good +1.
Now that we have our mana online, let's talk about our two plans: Nukes and Dukes.
STEP TWO: DUKES
PART ONE: BOXING GLOVES
Neheb is a commander that likes to attack. Once he's out, we're going to want to have him swing probably ever turn, because even if he's blocked he goes right over the top. The issue, however, is that while he has 6 toughness, that's not a lot going into the late game. So, we've got some boxing gloves for our beeftank.
[[Darksteel Plate]] lets us not really worry about Neheb. Slap some darksteel on that lazotep and watch the haymakers fly.
[[Sword of War and Peace]] and [[Sword of Sinew and Steel]] give him protection from white and black, and also importantly, RED. We can use our X spells that also hit creatures with impunity once we give Neheb one of his twin blades.
[[Shadowspear]] gives Neheb trample, which lets him smack harder, and also, for two mana, you can remove indestructible and hexproof from an opponent's permanents. A glorious piece of tech. The lifelink can be nice, but it's, there to punch through. Speaking of punching through
[[Embercleave]] needs no introduction. If you're turning something sideways, Embercleave is always a great way to make sure it damn well hurts.
[[Swiftfoot Boots]] makes killing Neheb harder, and anything that makes Neheb stickier is good in my books. Haste is also an absolute plus. We don't have [[Lightning Greaves]] because we want to give Neheb more equipment than just lightning greaves, and shroud makes that harder than it needs to be.
PART TWO: SIDEWAYS CREATURES
If we're swinging more than once a turn, and we WILL be swinging more than once a turn, we want to swing with things that create effects that benefit from multiple combats. Enter our beaters:
[[Tectonic Giant]] swings once and deals three damage to everyone, or impulse draws. You swing multiple times with him and with Neheb in play, and boy howdy did you just draw and make a ton of mana. An absolute unit of a card.
[[Etali, Primal Storm]] is four free draws per swing. You swing multiple times with Stompy McCardsteal, and you've basically cast Villainous Wealth in red.
[[Neheb, Dreadhorde Champion]] is both real and not impulse draw and mana ramp. Swing, dump bad cards, get mana, repeat. EZ Clap.
PART THREE: TECHNICAL KNOCKOUT
[[World at War]] and [[Savage Beating]] gives us extra combats, with World At War having rebound to guarantee us extra combat the next turn and Savage Beating giving us double strike to combat trick like an absolute madman if we need to really add insult to injury.
[[Aggrivated Assault]] takes a small amount to explain. So, if we swing with Neheb, and he's unblocked, we get four mana. Tap a mountain, five mana, get an extra combat, swing with Neheb, go to the next main phase, EIGHT MANA, because Neheb cares about total damage of the turn, and checks every post-combat main phase, not your first one. That's right. We go infinite. Blow up the world, send out Neheb, and swing for infinite gaining infinite mana.
Also do not shout the names of the cards in this section because most of them are absolutely crimes and your pod will call the cops to stop you from beating their life totals into the dirt.
STEP THREE: NUKES
PART ONE: PRIMING FOR FISSION
Before we can bow up the world, we need to prime ourselves for it. To do this, we need to damage our opponents, and get our damage increasing abilities online.
[[Acidic Soil]] and [[Price of Progress]] are pretty much free damage. That guy who spent all game mana fixing? Yeah, he's getting shot for 16. The Golos deck? 30. Acidic Soil is there because it also counts basics, so the budget player who thought he was safe can get slapped for daring to play Magic as well.
[[Chandra's Ignition]] is 5 red mana for 12 red mana if you hit Neheb with it. It also board wipes. Slap it on Etali if you have protection for Neheb, and watch the world go down in fire.
[[Flame Rift]], [[Slagstorm]], and [[Fiery Confluence]] hit our opponents for dirt cheap costs. Three mana to get nine mana? two mana and four life for 12 mana? Treasonous Ogre is crying, he's been unemployed. Fiery Confluence is also a board wipe and a removal spell, which is super neato, as we're a mono-colored deck, so our toolbox isn't super diverse.
[[Combustible Gearhulk]] says "Give me draw or give me mana''. It's our Fact or Fiction, and much like Fact or Fiction, there are only bad answers. With an average CMC of 3, we're going to either draw three or get our mana back when someone takes 6 damage.
[[Pyrohemia]] says "pay one red mana: Gain three red mana". It's literally just Dark Ritual that is also removal. If you can't see why that's good I have no idea what you're doing in a red burn deck explanation.
[[Heartless Hidetsugu]] deals damage to each opponent equal to half their life total, rounded down. Deals damage. This isn't loss of life, this isn't 'becomes', Hidetsugu takes their life totals outside with a baseball bat and teaches it to fear the color red. Shadowspear on him makes you gain all the life they lost. If you have a damage doubler out, Hidetsugu says "Tap this creature, Win the Game." If he taps, and Neheb is out, one X spell almost guarantees a player death.
PART TWO: ROCKET FUEL
[[Torbran, Thane of Red Fell]] is not a damage doubler, but it does make our smaller pingers like Flame Rift, Fiery Confluence, and Pyrohemia absolutely backbreaking. Think of him as the initial charge.
[[Insult // Injury]] often time reads "Pay 3 mana: Your next spell kills a player". Injury is nice, but we're really here for the cheap damage double and to stop any damage prevention shenanigans. We're casting Insult when we know we can go off.
[[Fiery Emancipation]] Is here because, honestly, we make so much mana we'd be stupid not to run it. Six mana to triple damage when we make dozens of mana a turn is an incredible deal, and because it's one-sided, we don't have to worry about people killing us immediately with their tiny creatures. [[Furnace of Rath]] is two mana cheaper, yes, but importantly it doubles instead of triples, and also, uh, it doubles on US. We're trying not to self-destruct.
PART FOUR: DETONATION
[[Rolling Earthquake]] hits everything without horsemanship, so it hits everything. It's strictly better than Earthquake, because if we're casting an X spell, 80% of the time we're casting it because either A) We're about to lose or B) We're about to win.
[[Molten Disaster]] has split second, which makes it uncounterable, unreturnable, and uninteractable. It's our "YOU DARE PLAY BLUE?!" card.
[[Jaya's Immolating Inferno]] targets up to three targets. You will have three opponents in your pod. The math works.
[[Comet Storm]] is flexible, in that if you've already blown someone to kingdom come, it costs one less mana! So that's nice! It's also great target removal, and great with our newest card...
[[Toralf, God of Fury]]. Oh yeah. In this deck, a deck where we overkill everything, Toralf becomes an absolute monster. Earthquake everyone, and have the excess damage dealt to their creatures finish them off. The flip side of the card also goes mana-positive with Neheb, if we really need to get there and are just out of reach. This is a card this deck loves like your opponents love not being blown off the face of the earth by fireballs.
PART FIVE: CLUSTER MUNITIONS
[[Primal Amulet]] lets us copy our damage when it flips, and makes our damage spells cheaper before it does. It's easy to see why it's an all-star here.
[[Reverberate]] lets us copy something. Sometimes it'll be the counter that's trying to stop Jaya's Immolating Inferno. Sometimes it'll be the Immolating Inferno itself.
[[Reiterate]] is a multi-use reverberate, and we have the mana to use it.
STEP 4: THE REST OF THE DECK ThisIsn'tAStepButShhhhhh
HASTE
We want to give our creatures haste. [[Generator Servant]], [[Purphoros, Bronze-Blooded]], we can wheel away an [[Anger]] with ease, and [[Ogre Battledriver]] gives us a bit of oomph when our creatures enter the battlefield. Purphoros also functions as a sneak attack for when we want a creature to attack, but we don't have the mana to get it out.
DRAW
Look. We're in mono red, which means we have... one tutor that's halfway decent for our plan, and that's [[Gamble]]. We need draw. We're running a lot of it. [[Valakut Awakening]], [[Reforge the Soul]], [[Molten Psyche]], [[Magus of the Wheel]], [[Commune with Lava]], [[Cathartic Reunion]], [[Faithless Looting]] whatever we need to draw a whole ton, we have.
The real all-star draw card is [[Knollspine Dragon]]. Draw equal to damage to target opponent? In a burn deck? In a burn deck where our burn makes mana? Oh baby you best believe that when you slam this puppy down people are going to quake in their boots. From the dragon. And maybe from the Rolling Earthquake. Or the Molten Disaster. Whatever.
REMOVAL
We're not running much actual removal, because, well, A: Mono Red, and B: We're a player removal deck. If you want board control, or if you want a deck that doesn't feel like piloting a crashing roller coaster that is currently on fire, go play [[Zada, Hedron Grinder]]. We're here for the boom boom.
[[Vandalblast]] and [[Shattering Spree]] let us remove pesky artifacts, [[Blasphemous act]] removes board states for dirt cheap, and [[Chaos Warp]] lets us deal with one of anything.
[[Deflecting Swat]] is for anyone trying to touch our Lazotep Loverboy or for stack interaction when our [[Pyroblast]] fails to stop a counter.
LANDS
[[Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx]] is pure gas, [[Ancient Tomb]] gets Neheb out fast, and [[Rogue's passage]] gets us through chump blockers and deathtouchers if we need to swing with Neheb. Other than that, it's mountains, a [[Myriad Landscape]], and a [[Smoldering Crater]] to remind our opponents of the fate that awaits them and also some draw if we need it.
SIDEBOARD
For some, four X spells isn't enough. [[Fall of the Titans]] and [[Earthquake]] are easy to slot in, and for those who want more combat, [[Fury of the Horde]] is easy enough to get. [[Mana Geyser]] is great against landfall decks, [[Red Elemental Blast]] is good if your meta includes people who try to stop you from throwing the sun at them (Cowards.). If you want more draw, [[Apex of Power]] is a free draw 10 spell, and [[Dragon Mage]] is a [[Wheel of Fortune]] on a stick. Well, Magus of the Wheel is Wheel of Fortune on a stick ALRIGHT YOU GET IT.
UPGRADES
The easiest upgrade path for this deck is fast mana. [[Mana Crypt]], [[Grim Monolith]], [[Mana Vault]], [[Jeweled Lotus]] the faster you can pump out Neheb the better. They're not on this list because they're pretty goddamn expensive, and if you turn two Neheb people are going to focus you into the absolute dirt. [[Doubling Cube]] is neat, but honestly, it's just a but overkill.
Otherwise, upgrades include [[Wheel of Fortune]], your favorite Eldrazi Titan as a big ol' beater if you like the multiple combats, [[Sword of Fire and Ice]] is just the best damn sword we can get, and I'd say get [[Gauntlet of Might]] but for many people that card costs more than rent for the month, so just skip it.
GAMEPLAN
Step 1) Cast Neheb as fast as possible.
Step 2) Deal symmetrical damage, swing in.
Step 3) Go infinite with Aggressive Assault or cast a spell where X is, like, six trillion.
We're not interested in things like "Midrange" or "Control". No. We're Neheb. We're here to get high scores on the "How much damage can I make without going infinite" leaderboards. This is not a deck that does anything besides slam into people. It explodes. It goes absolutely haywire, totally off the rails, you'll need a calculator to check your mana.
This deck exists for one reason and one reason only: This deck is for Burn Timmies. Is it competitive? Eh. Does it win a lot? Eh. Does the fear in the eyes of your opponents make this deck worth it? Yes.
For your consideration, Nuclear Neheb: https://www.archidekt.com/decks/1072303#NUCLEAR_NEHEB
submitted by TheChowderhead to EDH [link] [comments]

Google Stock Analysis | Complete Fundamental DD | Is Google Stock a BUY right now? [GOOG]

In this post we are going to go through an in-depth analysis of Google, we are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF, do a little technical analysis and set some price targets for the near future and for the long term
~Very Long Post~ [Don't Read Unless You Like DD]
Hello everyone! Let’s start by talking a little about Alphabet, they are one of the biggest companies in the world that generates most of their revenues and income from online advertising services provided through their platforms like Google Search & YT while also expanding into multiple other businesses like cloud services and autonomous driving technology through their venture Waymo.
The company was founded during the dot com bubble in 1998 and has more than 130K employees, with the company performing quite well in the past year gaining more than 30%.
I believe Google will continue to grow as their cloud platform will remain one of the biggest in the world, while also continuing to innovate and develop other emerging businesses that might turn out successful in the long-term, while their main competition is Baidu & Bing for the search engine, but their market share is still completely dominant, as they also compete with social networks & online retailers for advertising placements.
So, guys, let’s go a little through the 4th quarter & yearly results for Google.
Google smashed earnings expectations for the 4th quarter with a beat of more than $6 on EPS and $4B in total revenues.
The company reported a revenue of almost $57B in the 4th quarter while generating revenues of over $182B in 2020, representing a 12% increase over 2019 as they operating income also grew to over $40B for the first time despite a very slow start to the year through the first 2 quarters as their ad revenues were crushed due to the lack of travel & other leisure industries as those are some of the biggest advertiser income streams for them.
The company sustained a significant growth rate in the past year in their 2 major income segments, with their services business which grew by 11%, and the cloud services which also more than doubled their revenues, but the cloud services is still losing money as they keep investing into expanding their services to compete with the other major cloud players like Amazon, Microsoft & Alibaba.
The company has also started this quarter to report their google cloud results separately to give a more detailed view on how the company is performing, as we can now see how the company has managed to increase their revenues streams and how big the YT Ads revenues have become for them as those increased by 30% in the last year. Meanwhile the revenues from Google Search also rose by 6% and the Cloud Segment spiked by 46%, as they also have a big backlog in this segment.
So overall, the company has managed to increase their revenues in constant currency by 14% in the past year while also improving their operating margin by 2%.
Google has managed to keep growing and improving their business operation through major capital expenditures that have accounted for over $22B in 2020. I believe the big spending on capex is really needed, as the competition in the cloud segment in really heating up, so I like companies that keep reinvesting into themselves, as they have also spent over $27B on R&D in 2020, as they keep investing into most of their products and adding new ones in the pipeline.
Also, for the projections of the DCF it’s important to NOTE that they had over $13B in Depreciation & Amortization in 2020, with this number growing between 15-30% in the past 2 years so I while use a 15% increase for the DCF to be safe. The other big number that is important is their overall capex spending, which has gone down in the past 3 years, but as things might ramp up again as they mentioned in their earnings call, I will continue to grow this spending by 2.5%/year expecting things to normalize after the company went for a safer approach in 2020.
Alphabet also managed to increase their earnings before interest & tax or EBIT which stood at over $41B while also buying back 1.6% of their total shares in the past year, as they continued buyback programs in the 4th quarter of 2020, buying back over 4.7M shares in just the last 3 months, thus continuing to reward their shareholders even more.
There are a couple of negative outlooks for the company though, as their effective tax rate has increased in the past years, and this might continue to go higher depending on future tax reforms so I will take into account some small raises in the tax rate.
The next problem is the regulatory pressure which can be another bump in the road for Google, but I mostly expect things to drag along and may eventually end with something similar to what happened to Microsoft. Even If they somehow end up breaking their businesses, I think we can see the Cloud business trading at insane P/Es which would increase the actual value of the resulting stocks, while the search engine and YT will remain very powerful even without the contracts with OEMs, which would result in better margins and less operating expenses, as most people would still turn to Google for their searches and videos.
The final problem for Google is the privacy issues, but it seems they have found a way to substitute the traditional cookie technology with a new software interface called Federated Learning of Cohorts.
This technology seems to have at least 95% of the same power of conversion per dollar compared to cookies which would be a huge boost to their privacy issues concerns and will help them maintain their dominance in the online ad’s world.
But this isn’t the only technology Alphabet is trying to develop, they still have other proposals in works as well, which might come in even better, so we will have to wait and see what they go with.
Meanwhile, Google also offered some guidance for 2021 as they expect easy comps in the first half of 2021, while they are planning to ramp up the pace of investments this year.
They also expect to keep investing in cloud segment as their backlog which stands at $30B is mostly attributable to the cloud segment, as Alphabet will continue to focus on long-term growth that will benefit them in the long run as operating results & margins go.
For the price targets, I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates and expectations. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on…
So, let’s start with the discounted free cash flow PROJECTIONS to see what the current valuation of the company is.
I used their total revenues projections that we will discuss later in the long-term projection, and the net income for 2020, to which I added back the Depreciation & Amortization costs they had in 2020 and got to an EBITDA of almost $55B
For the next years I used a small increase in EBIT margin which I think they can achieve pretty easy and also applied a 10% decrease in their net working capital.
I increased the capex spending and their D&A as I previously mentioned, so, for an 8% discount rate, which is pretty much the average SP500 return in the past decades and is what I like to use as a discount rate, given the current low interest rates, we get almost $190B Discounted Free Cash Flows by 2025.
Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for both of them we do have to subtract or add the net assets or debt of the company, which in this case stand at a net $200B in assets. I personally think a use of the average is better suited for most companies, though most of the companies trade largely on the EBITDA approach.
If we do use the growth approach, we can see that GOOG is slightly overvalued right now, as this implies a loss of about 5%.
On the other hand, a good EBITDA multiple for the company I think is about 20, as the stock currently trades over this multiple, but for safety reasons, I think 20 is pretty reasonable.
And given this multiple & approach we get a valuation of over $2700, or a 32% undervaluation of the company.
But as I said, I think a use of the average is best, so, my current price target for Alphabet in 2021 is $2326, implying a 13.3% return from the last price.
Guys, next let’s move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for Google.
For my PROJECTIONS I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream.
I think we can continue to see 50% growth rate in the Cloud segment for 2021 as businesses keep needing cloud services more & more, and then implying a gradual slowing of their growth rate.
For the Google Services (which include Search, YT & other revenue streams) I implied a 12% growth, just above last years, as YT keeps booming and the leisure industry advertising will slowly come back. But, for reasonable purposes I also implied a gradual slowdown of this trend by 1% each year.
I believe these growth implications are pretty reasonable giving the high market share in the search segment and the demand for cloud services platforms.
The 2 other revenues streams which are Other Bets & Hedging I pretty much left unchanged as they don’t really have that big implications on the final number, but I did add a small amount of growth in both of them.
For their cost of sales, I started from the current ones and maintained them for 3 of their segments, while for the Google Cloud cost of sales I implied a gradual improvement of about 14%/year. So, I am implying they reach profitability by 2024 and reach somewhat of an AWS type of profitability by 2025.
Guys, if we add all of these up, it means for 2025 we would get over $334B in revenues and $237B in expenses, resulting in a gross profit of almost $97B.
I also maintained the same capex as in the DCF while for the interest income & other incomes which stood at almost $7B this year I implied small annual growths, thus leading us to a $75.4B in earnings before tax.
I also slightly increased their 16.3% effective tax rate to about 17.5% by 2025 in order to somewhat account for possible tax changes in the future and also accounted for some share buyback programs of about 1% each year.
So, for the $62B in 2025 revenues after tax and accounting for 653M shares, that would mean a $95.25 earnings/share, meaning the stock is trading at almost 22 times forward price to earnings for 2025.
Guys, for my personal projections I like to use Forward/PE valuations & multiples, so, with the current projected PE and depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 25 and 40, the stock can trade between $2381 and $3810.
After all these estimates what are my price targets?
HERE are my actual price targets… I think the 2025 bear case price we can see Google trade at is $2619 which would imply a return of 27.5%, while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that Google will trade at 3095$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 50% return on the current price.
My most bullish case though, would see the company trading at $3572, which would imply a return of almost 74%.
So yeah guys, these are my Overall price TARGETS for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 35 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 35-40.
I think these are pretty reasonable targets, as the cloud services will continue to boom in the next decades, while they will also benefit from an increased reach for their search engine and booming YT platform as more people are getting internet access each day, and we shouldn’t forget that they might have even more great products in the pipeline with interesting names like Waymo.
Alphabet also has very good financials, with almost $320B in assets vs just $97B in total liabilities, which can be easily paid by the current $137B in cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities.
I also like to take a look at what the estimates are from the other analysts, and in this case, we can see an average EPS estimate by 2025 of $117, which is way higher than my $95 EPS estimates.
The analysts also expect over $370B in total revenues on average, which is also more than $35B ahead of where my targets are pointing, so, I think it’s safe to say I have been pretty conservative & reasonable with the growth expectations for the company.
You are probably wondering, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for GOOGLE?
Let’s start by taking a look at this CHART, we can see that Google was trading in an increasingly tighter wedge formation since the September lows. Right now, after smashing the earnings report the company has re-entered overbought territory with an RSI of over 70, which we haven’t seen since the big September sell-off. This breakout from this wedge formation came on the back of massive volumes for the stock, so I believe we can see the overbought conditions push the stock lower in the near-term before eventually going back even higher as I expect with my $2326 prediction for the end of the year.
I also think the $1920 to $1935 range can act as future support after it was a good resistance point for the stock.
But, let’s also take a quick look at what 44 analysts on Wall Street are saying. They are mostly very bullish on the stock with an average price target of $2171 and a high price target of $2610. So, guys, I think the analyst still have some catching up to do with upgrades to the stock after the recent earnings report.
Are you asking yourself, what would I do?
I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position if the stock drops under $2000 and especially buy more if it goes to the previous resistance levels between $1920 and $1935
I also believe that the big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 72% of the float being held by big funds like Vanguard & Blackrock does significantly reduce the sell-off possibilities and increase the support levels power.
So, these are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Google has a terrific future ahead, with their market share of engine search worldwide crushing the competition and the hole digital ad spending worldwide forecasted to continue to grow and take share of the total ad spending worldwide.
I believe Google will remain one of the best companies in the world while also being a good catch-up play to the other big tech names, as Google has underperformed compared to most of the other big names with the exception of Facebook.
Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to stocks [link] [comments]

GME DD: Float deep dive + MOASS speculations - Part 2

If you’re up for another long read, this is part 2 of my original DD on WSB. Link here for those interested. WSB has been removing my DDs so here I am.
TLDR; there is no tldr. If you are invested in this topic then read the whole thing and make up your mind about what it means to you as you see fit.

My goals from this DD post -

  1. There are a couple of important relevant points about short interest that I don’t see other recent GME DD’s talking about that I would like to bring to the table for discussion. I prefix their titles with “forgotten point”.
  2. I would like to be objective and only present data while avoiding confirmation bias. If you see me biased, feel free to point it out.
  3. Share what I personally think and plan to do moving forward. This is not advice but only my personal opinion.

Short interest data analysis

Preface -
Alright, let’s start by looking at a couple metrics available from Ortex, utilization and on loan.
​
https://preview.redd.it/q5dn66bs7rg61.png?width=3475&format=png&auto=webp&s=67a1a43fc24392f9cdd70de79da13700284dc4fe
Here are definitions provided by Ortex for the data in the chart:
UTILIZATION:
The ratio between the number of shares on loan across all outstanding loans in the wholesale market and the number of shares available for lending at lending programs. 0% means that no shares have been borrowed or lent at these lending programs; 100% means that all shares available to borrow or lend at a lending program have, in fact, been lent. This does not represent the number of shares listed on the exchange that have been lent, because not all listed shares our available for lending; it indicates how much of the supply actually available for lending has been lent. Unless otherwise specified, this is given in decimal format.
SHARES ON LOAN
The current number of shares out on loan
Note that “shares on loan” is less than short interest estimate. This is likely due to naked shorting (regardless whether by MM or otherwise). The difference between those values is ~5M shares, suggesting 5M naked shorted shares but that’s a tangent.

Forgotten point 1: Float shrinks as shorts cover

According to the above definitions, we can deduce the total number of loanable shares by taking the “On Loan” value and dividing it by utilization. This value represents the total number of shares available to loan + loaned out shares, which is the total borrowable float. Aka true float shares minus unavailable to short (e.g cash accounts). We can then come up with the following values.
January 25th -> 48.6M shares January 26th -> 44.7M shares January 27th -> 40M shares January 28th -> 30.2M shares January 29th -> 28M share Feb 8th -> 26M shares

Observations

  1. Utilization remained at 100% until January 28th. It started dropping on the 29th, suggesting shorts covering. This means all the borrowable float was borrowed up until January 28th.
  2. The values above are suggesting that the size of the borrowable float has decreased significantly.
Point (2) above means one of two things. Either:
I think the latter is unlikely because that would mean retail controls ~1.1B dollars (by current price). Therefore I think the former is what happened thus confirming my hypothesis that the float has shrunk.
This is important because of what I mention in the next section. If you remember my previous DD, I hypothesized that the squeeze should become way more violent as more covering occurs.

Forgotten point 2: Absolute short interest vs (short interest / float) ratio as influencer on squeeze

I’m seeing a lot of posts talking about the absolute value of the current short interest (aka total number of shares sold short). What is surprising me is I don’t see anybody talking about the short/float ratio.
See, whenever a VW comparison was brought up, the smart apes would tend to point out that the reason VW squeeze was very powerful was _not_ because of high short interest, in fact short interest was not high for VW like GME, but specifically because of the ratio of (shares sold short / available float to buy).
See, this is basically supply and demand. The higher this ratio is, the higher demand is and the higher a price would rise during a squeeze.
In case of VW, I’ve seen references of that ratio being ~12. To put this into perspective, for each 12 buyers there is 1 seller (assuming both parties are buying and selling 1 stock each for simplicity). Now let’s compare to GME.

Before recent events

After recent events

Now let’s take a second look at what the float looks like now after updated short interest estimates. I’ve updated blackrock and fidelity holdings with the values from their latest filings. Note that these values don’t account for retail holdings; and they only account for top 10 institutional holders so in reality the float should be smaller than this by at least a few million shares.
​
https://preview.redd.it/qhb2dioe8rg61.png?width=1441&format=png&auto=webp&s=afee02e1a4e2d000d21d0738e64af4137e6f0fb4

Observations

Speculations from above data

What I think happened

I don’t know what happened, the data is simply not enough. Anybody who claims to know with certainty are lying. All we have is bits and pieces of data we can use to deduce high probability outcomes.
Regardless whether what happened recently was a squeeze or wasn’t, many of the underlying conditions and hypotheses that can cause a potential stock rise/squeeze still exist; just with a smaller short interest.
The primary factor that changed is short interest. But even if that did truly decrease, it is still very high even if it’s not >100% of float; and it also increased the demand/supply ratio with it substantially. The only difference now is if another squeeze happens, it will likely last a shorter time frame.

Speculations about what happened

  1. Organic demand initially skyrocketed the price. A partial squeeze happened.
  2. Dumb investors/funds that were not prepared got margin called and/or took losses. There were likely new shorts added along the way (e.g at 100 and 200) that got margin called when the price continued rising > 400
  3. Smart investors/funds decide to let others get massacred and instead the squeeze with dated calls. I mean, If I’m a shorter and I’m smart, greedy, and I feel confident that the price would go down why would I cover at a huge loss? I’d rather limit my max losses by buying OTM calls at my maximum loss threshold at a few months out; let the other shorts get massacred in the squeeze then cover later after it cools down. If I’m smart, I would have done this as soon as price passed the $20-$30 price.
  4. Since there are literally no shares I would wait for price to drop substantially before trying to work out a deal with Gamestop or one of the large institutional holders to buy out their shares at a set price. Maybe that’s why Fidelity sold their position? (Perhaps at higher than market price behind closed doors)

What this means going forward

  1. The other shorts eventually need to get out. They can’t get out now due to lack of supply and they’re betting on the company failure.
  2. If the company fails and share price drops, current shorts will wait for share availability, or work out a deal with Gamestop and/or large institutional investors to buy out their shares at a reasonable price.
  3. If the company succeeds and the share price continues rising, the remaining shorts will eventually get squeezed. Since the available shares aren’t enough to cover, I expect either another halt or behind closed door deals to buy out at certain prices.
  4. The time limit for the above is unknown and highly depends on how much the borrow rate is costing the shorters, how the company does in earnings and how the share price behaves from buying demand. If demand keeps growing.
  5. If a squeeze happens in the future, it will likely be shorter in duration due to the decreased short interest. It could happen over 1 day. However price could go up higher due to scarcer supply.

My personal stance and departing thoughts

I entered this position from the start because I like gamestop and I can see them naturally growing into a price >$200 over the next few years. This remains unchanged.
Can another squeeze happen? Absolutely. There are still 20M shares that need to be bought to cover which simply currently aren't available on the market. That's even assuming there are no new shorts.
Are the odds of it happening the same as before? Maybe; however the timeline definitely changed. It may take longer time to happen. If it happens, it will also be shorter lived. If the company succeeds and the share price slowly climbs shorts will eventually cover it's just a question of when.
In other words, this turned into a long term play that could happen over months or 1-2 years.
The above may sound frustrating; especially since it’s no longer inevitable within weeks like it was before when short interest was mind boggling. With that said, I’m still bullish. One underrated aspect not talked about often enough is that there are still large institutional holders that have their positions mostly unchanged even though they are now sitting on >10X profits. These guys are smart and greedy. If they’re not selling now then they see more potential and this is bullish.
I entered this position earlier than many so I’m biased in holding. I didn’t sell a single share on the climb. The recent drop cost me multiple $M. The bright side is if this takes a year then at least I’ll pay significantly less taxes on my gains.
I'm not touching this position anytime soon. GME can make $200 with no squeeze.
I hope this helps.
submitted by XSh4d0W to GME [link] [comments]

[Barterverse] Wealth of Planets 7: Deja Vu

RoyalRoad
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Galactic Union HQ
"Emergency Session 18 of the Galactic Union, for the record," Secretary General Amanda Wilson said as she looked solemnly around at the hundreds of creatures in the chamber. At first, the Galactic Union headquarters were located in New York City, sharing spaces with Earth's United Nations. Then, as many other planets joined it, the UN General Assembly Hall became too small.
A new, larger facility was built at Galactic Peace Island, formerly known as Navy Island, a previously uninhabited island on the Niagara between the US and Canada. The new assembly chamber was large enough for every planet to have one permanent seat. Though some would choose to participate in its proceedings virtually, every one of them had visited its spacious halls. The structure itself represented their sacred and collective agreement to resolve their differences together, to face big challenges together, and to guard the interests of all sentience.
This was where galactic slavery was banned. This was where the first interspecies anti-piracy military ship was commissioned. This was where the ambassador of Ribb had come to humbly beg to be allowed to rejoin the galactic community.
For humans, its location and the extreme technological requirements needed to quickly construct the large hall also served as a convenient reminder to the galaxy of the importance of the species that hosted and built it.
"We have received a special petition regarding the issue of sovereignty over a member planet. I yield my time to their representative, joining us via virtual FTL comms," Amanda continued, pointing at the massive viewscreen above her.
The screen cleared, and a large parrot like face appeared with intricate red and black paint adorning its features.
"Hello Union members, my name is Mollikutta. I am the former Governor of Zakabara Second, and I am here to represent the interests of my people," she said calmly but loudly. There was a hubbub in the assembly hall. Zakabara already had a representative! Eyes began drifting towards the stunned Popptaw at the front of the chamber.
"My people of Second split off from Zakabara Prime many thousands of years ago. We have developed a distinct culture, and distinct interests. Our people no longer wish to accept the jurisdiction and administration of our planet from Prime. We would like to ask the Galactic Union to grant us sovereignty over our planet, our resources, and our space."
A loud squawk broke through the shocked chamber. It was Popptaw.
"This is ridiculous! Zakabara Second is and has been a colony of Zakabara for all of our history! I am the true representative for all of our people, all of our species, and I demand that this pretender be ignored by this chamber from here on out!"
The older species were nodding or agreeing silently. After all, Zakabara was not the only species that had a colony or two. Some younger species were looking to develop their own, and their ambassadors were now suddenly worried about whether they'd retain control over them.
Mollikutta was undeterred and continued, "unlike the representative from Zakabara Prime, I was chosen to lead our people with a majority voice vote last night."
It was not easy convincing the crowd to let her stay on with a promise of facilitating independence, with her being the symbol of the Primers on their planet for months.
The flashy entry of the humans in their helicopter at the palace grounds did the trick. Mark promised the mob elections and everything. Humans had a lot of credibility in the galaxy, with their cultural and economic exports.
At this point, there was more whispering and even some gasps in the chamber. They were all familiar with the concept of electoralism; that was how Earth and the GU conducted business, but few other species practiced it internally.
Mollikutta continued, "my people deserve the right to determine the future of our destiny, not to be treated as second class citizens by an oppressive regime from a faraway planet that does not understand our people or our problems!"
The undecided chamber looked to the great powers of the galaxy to see what they had to say.
Amanda spoke up simply, "the people of Earth stand with the people of Second."
Seeing this, Gubarak, the ambassador of Gakrek quickly followed, "Gaks stand with the people of Second."
"The Zeepils of Zeep-zep support the Seconders' right to self-determination."
Finally, an electronic tally showed an overwhelming majority of support for the independence of the people of Zakabara Second, with many older species choosing to abstain instead of casting their lot with Prime.
A subsequent vote gave the Galactic Union the powers to oversee the transition.
As Popptaw stormed angrily out of the chamber, Mollikutta wasn't sure which she found more beautiful: knowing that her people had a brighter future ahead of them, or watching the middle finger that the galaxy had just shown their other oppressors on Prime.
Construction Site 1, Gophor Spaceport
Grayin's heart sank as she saw Rey and Enrico walk over, hand in hand. She had hoped that it would take them longer to figure out what she was doing here and to start asking questions, but the growing pile of material and chopped wood frame in the lot she'd chosen wasn't easy to ignore.
After all, they were easily visible from their neighboring restaurant. And nobody liked competition.
"Hello Rey, hello Enrico" she said timidly, not wanting to start a confrontation this early in the business.
"Good morning, Grayin," Rey greeted politely, "and N'har. How are things going? Looks like you guys are building some kind of a permanent structure here. Does this have to do with the spaceport?"
From the familiar look on her face, Grayin knew the jig was up. She couldn't lie, so she tried confidence. "We're building a new restaurant building here. It'll be a two-story one, just like yours, except we'll also have a front patio. Like one I've seen on a magazine from Earth."
Rey smiled broadly and said, "that's very nice. Good luck with that! And don't go anywhere, we'll be right back in a bit."
Ah, shucks! They're gonna go get that security guard that they hang around. We should have thought of that, she thought. Maybe if we hired a couple of them, they wouldn't be messing with us.
About an hour later, to her surprise, Rey and Enrico came back not with Grob, but with a plastic folder with a stack of papers held in it.
"These are the contact information for the construction contractors we had on Earth for the more advanced issues we had when we were building our restaurant," Rey said. Handing her the folder, she added "and we've got our blueprints in there in case you need inspiration, as well as some interior design ideas. And let us know when you need help with water, electricity, and waste management."
"Huh?" Grayin was dumbfounded.
"You said you're constructing a new building here, right?" Enrico asked affably.
"Yes. But why are you helping us?" she asked suspiciously. Surely, they couldn't be naive enough to not recognize the obvious site of a future competitor, right?
"Oh, we're not worried about the competition if that's what you're thinking," Enrico smiled. Then he added, "besides, N'har here helped us out a bunch when we were building our business." He went over and patted the stunned N'har on the shoulders. "It's about time we returned the favor."
Grayin was not sure if she'd gone crazy, or if it were just these two humans. Perhaps it was both.
They were not crazy.
Having gone to Hamburger University, Rey was familiar with the clustering effect. Enrico, who had been to a street lined with restaurants, also intuitively understood its existence. Hell, even the food vendors at the spaceport market knew this subconsciously.
Businesses tend to cluster. For a long time, economists ignored this tendency because economists were generally not businesspeople. In the 1980s, as the field of business strategy really began to hit its stride, some of them started to take notice and study the effects of clusters.
Why do businesses open up next to each other even though they'd face the stiffest competition there? As it turns out, the reason mostly has to do with economies of scale.
When you ship something, like say napkins, to a hundred restaurants on a hundred different streets, it is costly. Far costlier than shipping napkins to a hundred restaurants on a single street. Apply that to every consumable good or maintenance need of every restaurant, and what ends up happening is that the cost of doing business in a cluster turns out to be much lower than outside. Sure, there may be strong competition, but clusters also increase foot traffic, which increases the overall pool of customers.
This also happens on the labor side. That's why so many IT workers live in the Silicon Valley, why so many prospective actors and actresses live in Hollywood, and why so many jewelers live in Antwerp. In the even longer run, successful clusters make successful cities, and successful cities rake in profits for its businesses.
In the case of Gophor, Rey and Enrico could not wait for the spaceport to develop a food court, with an even cheaper supply chain for imported goods from Earth. Additionally, the only logical move for these new buildings later on would be to hook up their utilities to their infrastructure. That would not only decrease their own cost but possibly allow them to earn a profit off that early investment.
And it was certainly going to happen sooner or later, so why not maintain a good relationship with the folks who were about to maintain a large workforce and potential customers in the area?
They offered the working Gaks some free ice cream (luckily, the ice cream machine was not broken that day), and went back to work.
Four Months Later
Grayin designated her new buildings Site 1, Site 2, and Site 3. They lined up side-by-side next to the next to the existing McDonald's building. Because many of the construction Gaks who were on her projects also worked with Rey, they were familiar with many of the human invented building techniques that were required.
They could employ more workers with their lower pay, and after a short four months, the exterior for Site 1 was mostly completed. After a risky operation that shut down McDonald's itself for a weekend, they also managed to hook their building onto Rey's "utility company".
After they celebrated the building's completion, the first thing they did was to ask Rey and Enrico whether they had an idea who on Earth would be interested in their new building. For reasons she and N'har still could not understand, the humans had been genuinely helpful and seemed utterly honest about their intentions to help her succeed.
"Hmmm," Rey thought out loud when they asked, "there are a few restaurants that could really round out this spaceport. I think your best bet for the most money would be some kind of a luxury or fine dining establishment for traders."
"Yeah, when we started, there were barely enough traders to make us profitable on them alone," Enrico completed her thought. Then he explained, "we got lucky that our business is cheap enough for locals. Now most of our business is with Gaks. But with how many bigger ships are coming in with larger crews, I think you could definitely sustain a restaurant that charged higher prices for less volume."
Grayin had seen human commercials for fine dining restaurants. Big empty spaces between tables, fixed courses, and very fancy service. She wasn't sure that it would be the right business model for Gophor, even with the increase in foot traffic. And she knew next to nothing about starting a restaurant business. But she didn't have to run it. She just had to rent it to someone who would.
"Okay," Grayin decided, then asked, "so who would you suggest we contact for someone who would be interested?"
Rey thought about it for a while, but she realized she didn't know. Her contacts really didn't extend much beyond the company she'd work for her entire life. She replied honestly, "I don't know. You could contact Izzy, who we got to handle our rental deal, and ask her if she could give you a recommendation. That's what I'd do."
After getting Isabella's contact information, Grayin and N'har thanked them and started strategizing the call.
Chicago, Earth
"It's another alien trying to rent us property on line three, Izzy," her secretary said to her calmly, as if this was something he did every week.
In a way, it was. Thousands of planets had seen what happened on Gakrek with Rey's franchise. If they were not innovative, at least they could copy. Isabella had to reject many good offworld deals that just didn't have the right infrastructure or didn't make business sense, especially on the smaller spaceports.
She did pretty well for herself too. New corner office. New secretary. New frequent flier card for the recently opened Galactic Express chartered flight company, for when she needed to inspect prospective renters or sellers.
"From where?" she asked smoothly. She had one of those galactic maps projected onto her office wall, with flags on some of her acquisitions. Some school aged kids are learning galactic geography now, but a textbook couldn't teach you which planets had the best economic conditions and on which ones the bribes were cheaper. No, that's what Wikipedia was for.
"It appears to be Gakrek," her secretary replied, "Gophor Spaceport."
Isabella frowned. That's where Rey's franchise was. She wasn't sure there were enough local customers there to support two franchises, and if it did, expanding the spaceport one would probably be the smarter move. She picked up the phone. "Hello, this is Isabella at Franchise Realty Corporation, how may I help you today?"
"Hello Isabella, my name is Grayin. I am from Gophor, on Gakrek. I am a friend of Rey, and I am trying to rent out my property. She said you might be able to recommend someone we could talk to," came her translated voice through the phone.
"Sure," Isabella said, looking up contacts on her tablet. It would be nice to do Rey a favor here. After all, Rey had kickstarted her own offworld real estate career. "What kind of business are you looking for?"
"Oh, it's very similar to Rey's building. We have an additional patio out front with space for outside seating, but other than that, it's pretty much the same. She even let us use her blueprints. We're hoping to find a fine dining business willing to take it on," Grayin replied, mirroring what the humans told her earlier.
"I see," Isabella replied, still searching but suddenly paying a lot more attention to this conversation. She could add two and two together. If this was a completed building just like their existing franchise and this was a friend of Rey's, the business opportunities here were… "Just out of curiosity, how much are you looking to charge for rent?"
Caught slightly off guard, Grayin answered honestly, "we thought we could charge 120,000 credits a month to a big chain, a little more than Rey's because we have more space."
Holy smokes, Isabella thought, another unbelievably great deal. Gophor was just the gift that kept on giving. Normally, her managers wouldn't approve a deal renting another piece of real estate right next to one of their franchises for fear of cannibalizing their own business, but commercial real estate was their bread-and-butter moneymaker. Who cares what fine dining restaurant the folks upstairs would eventually decide to sublet this out to? They wouldn't turn down a free win like this one.
"In that case, I think I might actually be interested in your space," Isabella said, putting down her tablet. "When are you free to do a walkthrough?"
Site 1, Gophor Spaceport
Grayin and N'har watched warily as the spaceport manager entered the front of their newly built construction. It was Garber. Grayin knew exactly what he was there for.
"Welcome to our new building, Garber," she greeted him at the door with a neutral tone, "how can we help you?"
"Ah, Grayin. It's nice to see you," Garber said in a grating snivel, "you look well. I was sad to see you leave our space traffic control tower."
You probably just missed skimming off my salary, Grayin fumed, but kept that part to herself.
He continued, "as you know very well, we have a tradition of maintaining our spaceport here on the donations of our merchants. I'm here to assess a suitable amount for your new store."
"How much do you have in mind?" N'har asked.
Garber looked over as if he'd just noticed N'har's presence, and stroked his snout thoughtfully. He knew he wildly undercharged the humans in the other store. He would not make the same mistake here.
Garber didn't know how much Rey's franchise was actually taking in income, but he thought a ten times increase would be a fairly safe bet. "I think we can start at five hundred fifty credits a month," he sniffed, "that seems reasonable to me."
Both Grayin and N'har managed to keep their composure at this incredibly low figure that represented less than 0.5% of the deal they were going to sign with Isabella later.
N'har glanced to his left, where he noticed Grayin was already taking out her wallet. He gave her a slight shake of his head and sent her a telepathic "no" with his eyes. He would rather Garber not come back with a higher "donation" request every time they built a new building here.
N'har pretended to haggle with Garber, "that seems like a lot of money, Garber. I hear Rey pays much less than that. And we're going to build several more buildings here in the future."
Garber chewed on that thought for a while. After all, he was a reasonable and logical Gak. If what they were saying is true, there will be plenty more credits to extract from them in the future.
"Hmm, in that case, I can give you a discount. Five hundred credits a month," Garber said generously, then added, "but you have to donate that same amount for every new building you put on my spaceport. That's my final offer. We all want your business to be successful."
N'har almost had to stop Grayin from throwing her GC card at Garber.
Constellar Contracting started as a mercenary company on Earth, increasingly taking over the combat roles in humanity's numerous small wars. Due to limited oversight on their operations, they were able to aggressively expand during the early 21st century.
Unfortunately for them, peace came to Earth. It wasn't full utopian world peace, but with economic booms happening on every corner of the globe and weather patterns stabilizing with humanity's fix for climate change, there was less motivation for planetary conflict.
So Constellar turned to the stars. Even in the great galactic Pax Hominum brought on by Earth's economic expansions, there were plenty of opportunities out there for a corporation offering premium security solutions.
After all, there were plenty of conflicts and business to go around in a galaxy of thousands of planets. Olgix was merely one of them.
Territorial Space, Zakabara Second
"Space Lord, we have an incoming communication for you!"
Canouah, the great Space Lord of Zakabara, looked at his subordinate with surprise. His underlings were getting very good at their tasks and normally did not need micromanaging to enforce this months-long blockade. Annoyed, he said, "very well, open it."
"This is Commandant Marie Laurent of the French Space Force, representing the Galactic Union Peacekeeping Force. We are here to enforce our mandate under explicit invitation from the government of Zakabara Second, to ensure that their legal territorial space remains clear of hostile ships. And to facilitate the resumption of trade to the planet. Please stand down your ships and vacate this area within twenty four hours to ensure a peaceful transition of power. Thank you for your cooperation."
Then the human connection cut out without waiting for a reply.
"Someone get me planetary command!"
"How many ships do they have?" Popptaw asked from the viewscreen. Clearly, fighting her way out of this situation was in her instinct.
"Unknown. We could only find the source of the one ship that brought the message, but once they ended their transmission, they sped into a debris field and vanished among the trash," cursed Canouah. He had heard about how Earth ships could disappear like a worm in the mud, but hadn't truly believed it until he saw with his own two eyes. "We can't fight an enemy we do not see, with weapons we can't match, and numbers we don't know."
"So we just give up? We spend all that time and resources building a space fleet for you, and they mean absolutely nothing just because Earth sends maybe one ship?!" Popptaw asked furiously.
"No, we can move back to Prime and protect our home from the humans for when they invade us," Canouah said sadly, "but we can't engage them offensively in deep space around Second. It will just be a waste of ships, and as far as we know, they can build many more of them than we can. We should pull our ships back to defend home."
"No!" Popptaw screeched. "You won't take one step backwards from our defense of OUR system! That's an order!"
"What do you want me to do? Just shoot randomly at empty space until we hit something?" the exasperated space Lord asked. Then, looking at the phone, he realized she'd already hung up.
"What do we do, space Lord?" one of his loyal lieutenants asked, looking at him for guidance on the ambiguous and clearly stupid order.
Canouah thought for a while. Then he had an idea, "we'll wait out the twenty-four hour time limit. If we see any of them, we'll shoot at a couple of them and tell Popptaw we tried. Then we pull back. I'm not going to let thousands of my birds die just because she forgot to take her pills this morning."
Gophor Spaceport, Gakrek
"Do you think we should tell them they're pretty much getting fleeced by Izzy?" Enrico asked, looking out their second story window at their neighbors celebrating the deal signing.
"Nah, it's not that bad for them. One hundred twenty is below market value, but they'll still make their startup costs back in less than half a year," his girlfriend replied. "Besides, no need to go over and ruin their party. They'll learn to charge a higher price next time. Just like how Izzy learned to put that new utility clause in offworld deals."
Most of Grayin's family and friends were here to join in on the celebration. N'har's clan was back on Yis'Meh, but they would be sure to celebrate with them later as well.
"Chug! Chug! Chug!" the crowd yelled at N'har as he guzzled down his mug of Earth imported beer. They didn't live on a wealthy planet, but nobody ever accused the Gaks of not knowing how to have fun.
In one quick motion, he quickly drained his cup, and then turned around to plant a big sloppy kiss on the sensitive snout of a surprised Grayin.
The crowd went silent for a second.
Then, unanimously, they roared their approval in a loud cheer.
A beet-red Grayin returned the favor.
Territorial Space, Zakabara Second
"We see a ping again, commander!" Rekala reported. The humans had some strange technology that allowed them to disappear into the background of orbital debris around Second, but from time to time, they would show up on the radar as they maneuvered.
His commander mulled over this latest development and her orders.
"How far are they from us?" she asked.
Frowning at the radar, Rekala replied, "The ship radar thinks it might be about 320 kilometers away, but its signature is weak and that's at the very edge of our detection range."
"Are they within the MAR?" she asked. This was a loan word borrowed from humans. Many of their technology had been public knowledge, and the nerd birds who scoured the Internet for valuable information had found an air-to-air combat tactical guide.
It became standard training material for Zakabaran spacecraft crews. In this case, MAR stood for Minimum Abort Range. It's the range at which the target would no longer be able to avoid missiles fired from the spacecraft by firing their thrusters.
"No, commander, way out. They'll have over half a minute to respond if we fire now," Rekala replied.
His commander contemplated the information. Their standing orders were to fire warning shots at the humans, but not to destroy them. She doubted that was even possible in the first place.
"Alright, let's load up our missile and fire it at the signature. Let's see what they do."
At the very least, this should be a training experience for the crew. Like most of the Zakabaran fleet, they'd only fired a missile once before, and they had to retrieve and top up the fuel in it after the exercise. Some crews had not even been allowed to train with the system at all.
"I have a lock, commander," Rekala said. He didn't want to start an interplanetary war today. But he wasn't going to disobey orders.
"Fire," she said with more certainty. He depressed the trigger.
An indigenous copy of an old human missile slid out of the cargo bay.
And then, nothing happened. It just sat there.
"What the hell?" Rekala exclaimed, "it worked last time!"
When air-to-air missiles were invented on Earth, they encountered many issues. Early missiles were generally unreliable.
One of those problem missiles was the American-made AIM-4 Falcon. The Falcon had bad combat performance. It was designed to shoot down enemy bombers rather than fighters. It ended up doing neither. The American planes that could only carry missiles, specifically the Falcon, were often outclassed in dogfights by Soviet made planes over Vietnam. It achieved few combat kills.
The biggest problem with early experimental Falcons was that it was completely enclosed in a tube before deployment, so it could only lock-on after launch. This meant that early tests of the Falcon involved firing the missile at where you see the enemy planes, and then hoping that the seeker on the Falcon would also see and track the target on the way.
This was the model that the Zakabarans copied. However, the engineers on Prime were not stupid. They knew this was an issue from the start. They solved this problem on their copied missile; it had a radio that allowed it to communicate targets with the ship's radar before it fired. The lock-on could be done before firing.
The second biggest problem with Falcon was that the seeker was slow because its coolant took a long time to cool. It would take many precious seconds to lock onto enemy planes. The engineers on Prime disregarded this problem. This made sense because ships would have plenty of time to see the enemy in space before they were in range. Combat in space happened much more slowly than in an atmosphere.
Unfortunately for Rekala and his crew, the coolant in the radar seeker was consumed as it tracked a target. After they fired their missile in the training exercise, they retrieved it and topped off the fuel. They did not refill the liquid nitrogen for the seeker.
When the missile deployed, its radar turned towards what the ship told it was an ugly human target… and saw absolutely nothing.
"Alright, let's get out of here before the humans see us!"
"They're moving away from us now," the sensor operator reported to Lt Col Riku.
"Hmm… I wonder if they even saw us."
University of Zakabara Prime
"So they can only be fired once?!" Canouah shouted at the lead engineer angrily.
"Well… if you want to use it again, you need to refill the coolant as well," she told him.
"Why weren't we made aware of this?!"
"You never asked! We didn't realize that you were going to fire them multiple times! And oh yeah, you may need to manually reset the onboard computer."
"What?!" Canouah asked, confused. "Why the computer?"
The engineer fidgeted uncomfortably and explained, "there were some bad memory leaks in the guidance program, so we just doubled the onboard memory and figured that it was a problem that would solve itself when they hit their targets and exploded."
That… was simultaneously the most brilliant and idiotic thing he'd ever heard.
Canouah shot her a withering glare, and then he picked up his radio to his lieutenant. "Yeah, pull back our ships to the line the humans drew. All our ships. We need time to refit and rearm them."
"If we start a fight out there now, we'll do no better than the frogheads."
This marks the end of the Gakrek arc, but their impact will still be seen in subsequent chapters.
The missile memory leak is a reference to a commonly known engineer meme/story. Here it is in its entirety:
I was once working with a customer who was producing on-board software for a missile. In my analysis of the code, I pointed out that they had a number of problems with storage leaks. Imagine my surprise when the customers chief software engineer said "Of course it leaks". He went on to point out that they had calculated the amount of memory the application would leak in the total possible flight time for the missile and then doubled that number. They added this much additional memory to the hardware to "support" the leaks. Since the missile will explode when it hits it's target or at the end of it's flight, the ultimate in garbage collection is performed without programmer intervention.
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submitted by rook-iv to HFY [link] [comments]

MISCONCEPTIONS REGARDING DOGECOIN (REVISED, VERSION 1.1)

This is a revised version of my previous article. I am going to try to update frequently as it appears people have more and more questions and misconceptions or misinformation is being spread quickly. This post is to educate not only the Dogecoin community but anyone who is interested in cryptocurrency/currency is general.
This information below is important. I ask that you please take the time to read this entire post before making judgment or commenting. My discord group of over 100 people have grouped together the majority of the most asked questioned and misunderstandings regarding Dogecoin, into the following 20 key points. Even if you know the answers to some of these please read the entire post. (Especially if you’re from the cryptocurrency community) Please read them below.
  1. Question: What is Dogecoin?
Answer: Dogecoin (/ˈdoʊdʒkɔɪn/ DOHJ-koyn, code: DOGE, symbol: Ð) is a cryptocurrency invented by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, who decided to create a payment system that is instant, fun, and free from traditional banking fees. Dogecoin features the face of the Shiba Inu dog from the popular "Doge" meme as its logo and namesake. It was introduced on December 6, 2013, and quickly developed its own online community reaching a market capitalization of US $5,382,875,000 on January 28, 2021. [Wikipedia, 20210203]
  1. Question: Why Dogecoin?
Answer: For the Lolz. Well, not quite. Initially as a purely meme-driven alternative to the likes of Bitcoin and Litecoin, Dogecoin in-fact boasts very low transaction fees and fast transaction times, very little network congestion, and most importantly, is designed to be used as a daily means of exchange, like your morning cup of coffee. Also, it is really fun, and who doesn't like the Dog ?!
1/2 - second perspective) Question: What Is Dogecoin? And why Dogecoin?
Answer: Back a few years ago, some crazy people banded together in support of a cryptocurrency known as Dogecoin. Similar to other cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin, the people's crypto, finds itself with the support of hundreds if not thousands of individuals pushing for this currency to succeed. But what is that? Unless you have been absent from every social bubble, you may have heard of Bitcoin. For the purpose of this explanation, you will find that Bitcoin is not exactly an easy thing to equate to Dogecoin, but lets think about the criteria of a Cryptocurrency.Bitcoin did not find its foothold overnight. In fact, it took several years. A lot of people fought tooth and nail for their belief in the coin. Crypto, in a nutshell, is a decentralized form of currency that finds its value in a combination of individual asset involvement, ease or difficulty in security of an exchange, creating a method of reliable, secure, trustworthy exchange, and other reasons.
Think of it like this: to exchange goods and services without currency, one must barter. I can barter a service (a haircut, for example) towards someone who needs a haircut, and in exchange they can barter a good or service to me.Currency then becomes an "IOU" (I Owe yoU) so that, if somebody needs me to cut their hair, they can give me an IOU for a good or service they control. When enough people begin adopting this, a centralized currency eventually takes hold. Crypto seeks to take this a step further and, insteal of relying on building up a centalization in terms of valuable metals or debt, it is built up solely on the exchange of goods and services. Dogecoin, compared to other cryptocurrencies, finds itself in a strange position where the origins did NOT see it soaring to the moon in any situation. Funny how things can change in time. Dogecoin has pros and cons to it. Comparing it to other cryptos, it does not face a supply cap like Bitcoin does. It is not a directly equated asset, such as how Bitcoin can be attributed as a digital gold asset. Mining dogecoin is also much simpler (comparitively) and does not face difficulty spikes, a source of Bitcoin slow-down. In essence, in 50 years, Dogecoin will still be around, still be mined, still be traded. Bitcoin will cease to be created, hoarded, and become the digital currency of the affluent.
  1. Question: Places to buy dogecoin places where you can spend Dogecoin?
Answer: Refer to dogecoin posts by the moderators or a simple Google search for a list of businesses that accept doge as payment.
  1. Question: Cryptocurrencies vs stocks. The main differences between them.
Answer: A stock is a type of investment that represents an ownership share in a company. Investors buy stocks that they think will go up in value over time. ... A stock is an investment. When you purchase a company's stock, you're purchasing a small piece of that company, called a share.
A cryptocurrency: When comparing crypto to stocks, the main thing to keep in mind is that cryptocurrencies have few if any regulations applied to them. It is still the "wild west" of trading. You can be scammed, skimmed, pumped-dumped, as so forth, much more often and more easily than with stocks. Terminology is similar to exact between the two, but both require a certain mindset. Crypto is almost always a long-haul game, where stocks can be short play or long haul.
  1. Question: Dogecoin vs Bitcoin - their competitive advantages and disadvantages. Many cryptocurrencies have a higher degree of scarcity in comparison with FIAT (e.g. the US Dollar). For example Bitcoin / BTC has a strictly limited supply. And even though Dogecoin is not strictly limited, it is still a lot more scare in terms of supply than the US dollar. This simply means that if more people want to hold BTC or Doge versus the limited supply of the respective coin, the value of the cryptocurrency increases.
  2. Question: Is Dogecoin a meme or should it be taken seriously?
Answer: We have all witnessed the power of a meme, the depths it can reach in society, especially in recent years. We have seen it many times before with video games, consoles, Oreos, or as of late even toilet paper... A meme has inherent value in the form of “widespread information”. A meme can spread an idea across diverse communities, and even entire countries literally overnight. This can bring about lasting effects on culture and society. If correctly taken advantage of, Doge can become the dominant meme currency of the internet, and amass real-world value just by being a popular, recognisable meme itself. This is where the saying “Dogecoin is the people’s coin” comes from.
  1. Question m: Mining Dogecoin and the history of Dogecoin). How a new currency entered the market.
Answer: mining is the process of creating new cryptocurrency by solving a computational puzzle. mining is necessary to maintain the ledger of transactions upon which cryptocurrency is based. Miners have become very sophisticated over the last several years using complex machinery to speed up mining operations. Approximately 600,000 dogecoins are produced per hour and 5,256,000,000 per year,
  1. Question: Circulation of currencies. The importance of buying, selling, and holding - and the differences between them.
Answer: To briefly explain this, a lot of people have been saying “buy and hold” or “I’m never selling!” - which in itself is great start. But there remains a lot of misinformation around the topic, for example that simply "buying and holding Doge" will drive up the price indefinitely. Unfortunately, that is just not true. Buying, holding, and selling are all intricately connected with each other. ALL of those three states are essential for a (digital) currency to flourish. Holding does neither hurt or raise the value of the asset, but rather it helps to establish a baseline, which is also called "setting a floor". Those who have diligently kept on holding their coins, have allowed Dogecoin to stabilize at roughly 0.03 USD cents for the past few days. Remember, this remains a huge gain from where Dogecoin has been just weeks ago. The reason the price is not changing much from this baseline right now is because few are buying and few are selling their Dogecoin, specifically due to topics which will be covered in other sections here. However, an active circulation of a currency is critical to establishing it as an effective means of exchanging goods and setting it up for long term growth. The best way to increase the overall value of the currency in the long run is by eventually by exchanging your coins for goods, services, or just by tipping and trading with other Dogecoin holders. The value of any means of exchange is fundamentally driven by supply and demand. If two parties agree that X amount of asset A is roughly worth the same as Y amount of asset B, you effectively have established a market.
  1. Question: Establishing a floor or a baseline.
Answer: Due to other current issues, such as "RH" and other platforms artificially delaying FIAT-to-Crypto exchanges, these trends may appear strange at first sight, but those who continue holding onto their Doge are affecting or rather creating the floor. The floor is essentially the lowest value Dogecoin will drop to at current market conditions. The floor is currently around .06 USD cents. Which is up from 0.008 USD cents just a few months ago.
  1. Question: Inflation and deflation Infinite supply / no cap vs cap in regarding to cryptocurrency
Answer: Inflation and deflation are common economic terms used to explain the change in the inherent value of a currency. This means that that 1 US Dollar today does not have the same value or “worth” as it did, for example, in 1950. Inflation is a situation of rising prices in the economy. A more exact definition of inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level in an economy. Deflation on the other hand occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%, that is a negative inflation rate. While inflation reduces the value of a currency over time, a sudden deflation of a currency increases its relative value. This would allow more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation can be a factor in leading to a recession and also result in a deflationary spiral.
10a) What does all this mean with regards to cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin versus Dogecoin? 
 Well - Bitcoin is stagnant or deflationary over time, while Dogecoin is inflationary overtime. This is due to the way they are architected and mined, and how new coins are added into their respective markets - covered in other section. What gets misunderstood is which one is “better” or rather "the lesser evil". Since Dogecoin has an “infinite supply”, how can it maintain value?
10b) You may have read things like: "You're stupid if you buy Dogecoin. It has no value. It has unlimited supply. It's just a stupid meme." Let's look at the US dollar (or essentially any major FIAT currency of your choice). FIAT currency is created out of thin air. It is backed by large sums of debt, and in the normal course of the economy it is inflating endlessly. But FIAT currency does have value. It's a value assigned to it by governments and people, a commonly accepted means for exchange. Again, FIAT does not have a limited supply. In fact, the supply of the US dollar is a lot more inflationary than Doge would ever be. Please think about that for a moment and make up your own mind.
10c) Yes, Dogecoin has a supply growth of about 5 billion coins (that's about 4-5% right now) per year, but why is that a problem, practically speaking? The growth is there to keep transaction fees to a minimum and allow a small, but healthy inflationary tendency, rather than the opposite.
10d) Dogecoin doesn't need a supply limit like Bitcoin, because in the long run it will be much easier to exchange Dogecoin for goods and services, than with other crypto currencies or regular currencies for that matter.
 If Bitcoin wants to become a real global currency with buying power, not just a speculation tool to exchange it for a few thousand debt based USD, when it hits a new record high every few months or years, its supply will have to grow inevitably. We have to see the bigger picture! Dogecoin may well climb to one US dollar, but why stop and sell there? Instead, we could build a new, fair, balanced monetary ecosystem based on Dogecoin, not to make a quick profit, but to change the whole world. Our current money is backed by signatures on debt contracts, not on real values. But it works, because we believe in it, even if it will be our downfall if it continues like this. Dogecoin is different. Dogecoin has a set amount of coins entering the market by the minute. There are plenty of spreadsheets out there showcasing exactly how much many Dogecoin will be in circulation at any given moment of time. People get confused because they think inflation is a bad thing, when in fact it is actually beneficial in small quantities and beneficial to the longevity of a currency. Dogecoin doesn't need a supply limit like Bitcoin, because in the long run it will be much easier to exchange Dogecoin for goods and services, than with other crypto currencies or regular currencies for that matter. If Bitcoin wants to become a real global currency with buying power, not just a speculation tool to exchange it for a few thousand debt based USD when it hits a new record high every few months or years, it's supply will have to grow inevitably.
  1. Question: Financial aspects of Dogecoin. Who will profit from it? What will happen if Dogecoin has exponential growth? A zero- sum game. Explaining that you only realize a loss or profit at then time of sell.
Answer: To clear things up - cryptocurrency is essentially what economist call a Zero Sum Game. A zero-sum game is a mathematical representation of a situation in which each participant's gain or loss of utility is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the utility of the other participants. What this means is that across a group of people who engage in selling and buying Dogecoin, if one person gains another person loses. For example if you bought at 0.08 and sold at 0.03 someone made a profit of 0.05 cents per Dogecoin while you lost 0.05 cents per Dogecoin. The important thing to understand is that in these situations the only way you truly lose or gain anything is when you sell. You don’t realize your gains or losses until you complete that transaction. What this means is that if Dogecoin does increase exponentially the people who have been holding since the price has been low will gain astronomical returns on their investment, while others who joined late will not.
  1. Question: Stability vs Volatility
Answer: This describes basically how stable something is over a set period of time. Volatility is how much prices change over time. Stabilization of Dogecoin is important for the overall health, however, cryptocurrencies are known to and will likely remain very volatile for the foreseeable future.
13a) Pump and dump vs long term growth. "Pump and dump" is a form of securities fraud that involves artificially inflating the price of an owned stock through false and misleading positive statements, in order to sell the cheaply purchased stock at a higher price. Pump and dumps are consider illegal. While a subset of people are trying to pump and dump Dogecoin the legitimate community is focused its long term growth and stability which is achieved through the rest of the topics addressed here
13b - second perspective) Essentially many people are just coming onto DOGE because it has low barrier to entry, and enticed by the idea of coming in low, selling what they have and running with the profits short term. This has lead to pumps and dips, and a lot of misinformation being thrown around. I should clarify some points for those who are coming in, instead of repeating the HODL and diamond hands rhetoric. Planned pumps are not what Doge needs. Pumps of this nature usually have an attached implication, which is that people will plan on selling, capitalising on the hype and then buying low to wait for the next pump. This leads to money being taken out of the coin, resulting in the lower price we now see. This means that planned pumps are essentially feeding sellers. We are not doing this in secret. This is a public forum and people with the intention have the information needed to drain us dry if we let them. Essentially, if we want Doge to grow, planned pumps need to stop being openly advertised, or they need to die altogether. Of the two, the latter is the easiest, and it is what this post will be focusing on. Sustainable Growth is now the way. Pumps are fine when they're unpredicted - Elon Musk is living proof of that. However, planned pumps will result in our good boy coin shooting down to the dips, where sellers can reinvest and wait to harvest our money again at the next pump. If however, we grow the price slowly, the floor will increase in a much more stable fashion, resulting in smaller dips. This will mean that the insane dips where sellers truly farm their coin at become very inhospitable to them, as they'd need to put more and more money to receive less and less profit. Essentially, by slowly growing the coin with organic 'food' instead of steroids, we can slowly choke out those parasites who are ruining the growth of the coin by making every dip a horrible investment for their time and efforts. Sure, buy at the dips. Sure, hold the coin. But don't plan any more pumps. The less room you give to the sellers, the doubters and the paper hands, the more coin you can collect and the more profit that awaits you in the future. Conclusion If we come together as a community, Doge will truly live up to the hype - the people's currency. If we choose to continue listening to planned pumps, we have a very difficult, long and risky road ahead of us. Sustainable growth will beat large planned spikes any day.
  1. Question: Difference between cold storage, internet wallets and Robinhood
Answer: Coldstorage - in the cryptocurrency world cold storage refers to physical objects/devices that contain your cryptocurrency.
Wallets are an electronic program of service that stores your cryptocurrency
Robhinhood- as of right now robinhood does not actually give you cryptocurrency when purchased through them. From Robhinhood’s cryptocurrency page: “We don’t currently provide you with access to your wallet or your wallet address. You own the cryptocurrency assets in your account, and you can buy or sell them at any time. We’re evaluating features to allow you to safely transfer coins to and from Robinhood, and we’ll update you when these features are available.” Robhinhood will be addressed in another section.
  1. Question: Elon Musk - Is he important for Dogecoin? The impact of celebrities and big business supporting Dogecoin Celebrity/Influencer Involvement
Answer: Elon Musk, Mark Cuban As many may know, Elon is highly involved when it comes to “meme culture.” we can see Elon has tweeted several times concerning “doge,” reposting memes found from Reddit, as well as concerning himself with the ripples of the recent stock news. Mark Cuban, another notable wealthy, down-to-earth, community-involved individual, has recently mentioned “#dogecoin” specifically. Regardless of whether these people have positive intentions towards $DOGE or not, their mention carries weight and public opinion and is a good assumption that new eyes are looking at us as a result. It should be noted that they have tweeted neutrally to positively towards $DOGE, not indicating a full-send support but they clearly are not talking down the possibilities.
Big business allowing Dogecoin to be supported as means of exchanging goods, and people like Elon musk supporting and backing this cryptocurrency are important to proving its value and legitimacy.
  1. Question: Is getting Dogecoin to increase to the equivalent of one US dollar possible? Can and will it really happen? What will change if it does happen? How high can Dogecoin realistically rise in price. Market cap explanation and comparison to US currency and global FIAT currency.
Answer: Yes, despite not having a fixed or capped supply, the value of the currency can rise based on its relative value against other currencies in the market. You can find examples of this in the FOREX market where currency pairs are traded, like Euro against US dollar, or US Dollar against Japanese Yen. As the value of Dogecoin rises, more and more businesses will recognise its potential and importance, and subsequently begin to accept it in exchange for goods and services. This will also help to grow the developer community around Dogecoin.
Market cap = price x supply. Price is determined by supply and demand (buying snd selling of Dogecoin. Supply is determined by mining Dogecoin.
The current market cap of Dogecoin while writing this article is 9,000,000,000 (9 billion) if Dogecoin was to reach $1 it would have a market cap of 128 billion dollars. Bitcoin (the most successful cryptocurrency$ currently has a market cap of approximately 700,000,000 (700 billion dollars). This means that at $1 the total supply of Dogecoin would be “worth” about 1/7th of Bitcoins total supply. The estimated supply of the US dollar is 2,000,000,000 (2 trillion) since 1 dollar = 1 dollar (LOLZ) the market cap of the US currency is 2 trillion. If Dogecoin were to reach this market cap - the price can be calculated through dividing the market cap (2 trillion) by the supply (128 billion). This means that dogecoin would equal the entire US currency at $15.60. This is definitely not impossible but highly highly improbable to ever reach this value any time soon. As in like 3-10 years away minimum. Now the entire supply of the entire worlds fiat currency is 37 trillion dollars. You can apply the same logic from above and see that the value would be $288.6. This is the theoretical limit to how much Dogecoin can be worth due simply to the fact that if it was valued at anymore than that amount it would be “worth” more than the entire world’s currencies combined which is not possible without adding more supply.
  1. Question: Is Dogecoin a product of the Wallstreet Bets movement? What differentiates dogecoin from GME/AMC?
Answer:!Just like some other investment opportunities (Nokia, Blackberry), DOGE was brought into the spotlight amidst the whole GME situation during the previous week. Unlike those stock, however, Doge is not another short squeeze, it is not a stock. It is a cryptocurrency / asset that many people think has potential, despite its Meme origins. Many who feel that they were late for embarking on the GME hype or the Bitcoin train in 2013 respectively, are now looking towards Doge, one of the early alternatives to the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Doge got a lot of interest recently, for example with the Elon Musk tweeting the same week.
  1. Question: The situation with Robinhood - Changes in terms and conditions. Disclaimer, it is important to read through Robhinhoods entire terms and conditions to fully under what happened. The information below is just a summary and is not Robhinhoods terms and conditions but an explanation of what happened and why it happened
Answer: Robhinhood has received high profile backlash in the media recently for their involvement with GME/Wallstreetbets. A lot of the cryptocurrency and Dogecoin community were outraged when they found out that about one week ago Robhinhood stopped allowed instant transfers for their cryptocurrency. Unfortunately, while we may not agree with what happened there they do have a reason for this. Over the past week the sheer amount of people trying to buy cryptocurrency skyrocketed at one instant. When robinhood allowed for instant transfers what they were really doing is essentially “loaning” you money to make trades or purchase cryptocurrency before the funds actually hit Robhinhoods business account. This caused a huge liquidity issue and Robhinhood could not meet the demand. That is why you had to wait 5 business days for your funds to be approved. This is standard practice across multiple brokerage firms before Robhinhood pioneered the instant transfer option. Whether we like it or not, Robhinhood is a power house in their industry and not going away. Robhinhood is one of the most mainstream ways to purchase and sell cryptocurrency and if everyone pulled their money out of Robhinhood the entire cryptocurrency market would collapse which I believe we can all agree no one wants to happen.
  1. Question: if all of the above information is true why the cryptocurrency full of people who are trying to discredit Dogecoin as legitimate cryptocurrency.
Answer: The cryptocurrency is horribly misinformed. They may have a solid understand of the technology aspect of cryptocurrency but the reason why Dogecoin will be successful is based on economics, mathematics, social theory and statistics as WELL as the underlying technology. cryptocurrency is full of gatekeepers who horde their knowledge while the Dogecoin community is focused on explaining and educating new people. cryptocurrency is notorious for being extremely serious and feel threatened that something that started at as a joke/meme has the potential to be better at cryptocurrencies intended purpose - exchanging goods and services - than Bitcoin or any other popular cryptocurrency which is deflationary in nature.
Thank you for reading this post in its entirety. It took a large amount of collective effort of people in my discord. I appreciate them to no end. We have over 100 people in that discord and we are here to stay. We are interested in explaining Dogecoin, reducing the scare factor and backing up Dogecoin through economic, social, financial, mathematical theory, etc. Per Dogecoin rules I cannot give out this discord, but if you are interested message me. It goes into greater detail on every one of these topics, with resources, links, articles etc. thank you and above all else remember that at the end of the day this is a meme cryptocurrency from 2013. But the people have spoken, and this is now official the people’s currency as well. Dogecoin🚀🪐🚀
submitted by Adventurous_Piglet85 to dogecoin [link] [comments]

How I passed my CISSP in 2021.

The exam was more difficult because of wording than any practice software. What amazes me about the exam is you can know the material and not pass. This may be true for anything, but is especially true about this exam because of the way it's worded .
  1. "Think like a manager?" While this is true, I had at least 50 questions on the exam where NOT thinking like a manager was necessary. Clearly ISC(2) are reading these forums and watching youtube videos ,attempting to improve the exam likely monthly. So, "think like a manager" is often true, but there were several times where the questions required absolute technical knowledge and most importantly "beak/fix" solutions. at least 25 that I recall. I searched for "think like a manager" answers and they simply were not there for those questions. All 4 choices were technical.
Conclusion: "Think like a LAWYER with a technical background" is FAR more appropriate advice. Larry Greenblatt stated this in so many words and he was right. You must think like a lawyer more often than manager and yes, there were absolutely questions where FIXING THE PROBLEM was the correct answer. How do I know this? Because again, the 4 choices were technical in nature/NOT managerial.
2) you have to read the questions and answers twice in most cases, but not all. I cannot tell you how many times I had the right answer the first time, only to change it, then ponder, then change it back. There are in fact 10 straight-forward questions on the exam and these should be answered without thought. I cannot cite examples specifically, but there were at least 5-10 questions that were quite straight forward.
3) my exam had zero math (ALE etc), but I had to know the ALE/SLE/ARO formulas, meanings because these were choices to answer real world scenario problems. No calculations for me were required. They provide a white board and sharpie. I did not use it. The terminal has an electronic calculator as well. I did not use it.
4) I wore ear muffs. I believe this saved me. The testing site provided lawn mower ear protection. I did not know this, but immediately put them on and I feel this saved me for concentrating. do NOT underestimate the level of concentration you will need. There was in fact noise in the room a few times even WITH the hearing protection. That caught me off-guard because the test center emphasized quiet, but I heard people talking several times. Plus, there was construction in the adjacent suite, which was incredible to me. I heard drills etc. while in the waiting area. I am questioning in my mind, "would I have passed this exam without the ear protection?" I am not sure. The isolation made me completely focus on the exam. I could hear my heart beating/racing as well.
5) You can laugh, but practice your questions at home wearing a mask for COVID-19. Years from now, one might read this and laugh. My reading glasses fogged up and the mask got annoying after an hour, trust me. Get used to sitting wearing a mask if you're not already wearing it for your daily work.
6) Sleep the night before. I did not. I was wide awake at midnight, 2 am, 3 am, and finally just gave in and read practice questions. I arrived at the test center absolutely horrified, half asleep, and drinking cold coffee in my vehicle outside. What saved me was listening to Greenblatt's Exam Tips video. I also had watched Cybrary's video on "Think like a manager." You need to think like a lawyer. or a CTO. Not a manager in my opinion. If you happen to report to a CTO, then I guess you can think like YOUR manager.
7) Schedule a test date. Without that, you will NOT have the motivation to study likely. A deadline is absolutely vital to learning the material. Common sense I know.
8) I studied 2-4 hours on weeknights for several months, and SAT and SUN for 6-10 hours for 6 weeks before the exam.
9) What did I study?
--Boson practice questions over and over, but guess what? I read every answer and challenged myself to say why the incorrect answers were incorrect 1x1. So, doing 50 questions often took me 4 hours. Boson's explanations were like reading a study guide, for me. Boson won't work on a mobile device. I wish they would introduce a mobile app! Whomever writes the Boson material did an excellent job. FYI I was told Kaplan is similar, but do not know.
Boson is absolutely amazing because you can tailor your own quiz and plug in a keyword. That was AMAZINGLY helpful to me. I plugged in "Annual Loss" and its engine brought up every question/answer containing ALE questions, some of which were challenging. "Biba" "SOC" "SDLC" etc, etc, etc.. when you get 10-50 questions in a row for the same subject matter, you learn the material. I cannot emphasize enough how this helped me. I did all the questions at least once, but focused more on the answer explanations which are amazingly written. Each answer is explained as to what it is, why it's correct/incorrect and it's brilliantly written. I was scoring 75-85 on all BOSON scores, but did not care. Boson drills deeply, but it shines when it explains answers. I also would ask, "when would this incorrect answer be correct????" and in my mind created new questions tailored against the other answers. This took hours but was worthwhile.
--ISC Pocket prep for mobile--CISSP exam module. I cannot say enough positive things about this app. It's VASTLY under estimated in its importance. Whether in bathroom, coffee shops, or in bed, I did question after question after question. Sometimes, new questions would magically appear as well. I flagged ones that were challenging and that helped. I took "flagged/missed" questions nightly, then added 20-30 more from the entire pool. These questions helped me learn the material and ingrain the integrity models, etc. I do not know why more people don't talk about the pocket prep. I did all 800 questions but again, new questions appeared from time to time. at least twice I did all 800 repeatedly over time until I had things memorized. They claim you should not memorize things for CISSP, but you HAVE to memorize much of the material. Same thing as Boson--I created mental questions against which the incorrect answers at hand would be correct for my new question. Many people are critical of this app, claiming it is not in-depth enough. This may be true, but there is no single study tool that covers all CISSP questions.
--11th Hour. I read it. I did the questions in it, 5 per chapter. This gave a great overview at a high level and is very well written, despite some typos (it happens).
--I tried to read the study guide from Sybex 8th Edition and just could not concentrate. I read the Boson and Pocket prep answer explanations instead.
--I registered my printed copy of Sybex Eighth Edition Practice Questions online and did all the practice questions in quantities of 20. When I'd accumulate 20 questions that I answered incorrectly, I made that a test in and of itself. I took all those questions collectively at least twice. 1,300 questions. One time I did 150 questions, seriously, and the site logged me out(!) and that was at question #143! So, that's why I was more careful and took 20-40 questions at a time thereafter. Imagine losing your score after 143 questions--I was frustrated!!
--I watched every YouTube video I could find. The ones that stood out where Mind Map, which does not get enough credit. This links the material together well. Larry Greenblatt's videos on exam verbiage helped a lot. Kelly from Cybrary was amazing. The IT Dojo videos actually diminished my confidence because they were at times far too technical. The guy on there is amazing and brilliant, but I stopped watch those videos because I told myself I did not have time to get into the weeds at his his level. He's brilliant. so, MindMap, Greenblatt, Kelly from cybrary. Another guy did a video on what to wear, bring, and the training center logistics. That was helpful.
--I signed up/joined Luke Ahmed's Facebook page and looking at people's questions helped me. Joining their conversations helped. I even asked a few questions myself about FRFAR and so on. it was great to bounce off ideas and questions with fellow study people. I bought Luke's book as a favor because I felt bad using his free Facebook site. His book actually helped, but only contains 25 questions. I read it through once and it helped--it's very cheap and short.
Comparitech's summary cheat sheets helped too. I pulled those up 1x1 the night before the exam. Great overview! Google this and you will find their summary PDF sheets. They are more clear than Sunflower, at least for me.
10) Wear something comfortable. You cannot bring any watches, jewelry, keys, not even a handkerchief into the test area. They check your pockets, socks, coin pockets, hair etc.. they looked over my glasses and I sanitized my hands at least 30 times while there at their request.
I brought a passport and driver license. You have a vascular scan (palm vein scan) 3x per hand out front, then they check it again in back, hand sanitizer between each scan! Obviously this varies by region. I am being told there will likely be remote-from-home testing allowed soon. I think for me that would be too distracting.
When you take the test, you have two things with you beside the clothes on your back. Your driver license and your locker key. Place those on the desk to your left or right and forget about them during the test.
The room was warm, for me. I wore a short sleeve shirt, jeans, socks, tennis shoes. Yes, they checked my ankles and made me frisk myself. That was fine by me.
11) do not panic during the test. I did. Once I hit question 80 and realized I had maybe an hour remaining, I panicked. I told myself "you've got this. you did not study all this time to let this go down the drain." I got angry. I motivated myself to say, "don't let them get the best of you." if getting mad motivates you, then get mad. Whatever it takes, within reason, do it. whether it is a superstition or whatever the case is, do it. akin to a hockey player that has a ritual before a game. Do it. Get mad, get motivated. I asked for strength, admitting how petty I was being when people are starving.
when I hit question 101, I panicked again.. "oh crap, I did not pass the exam at 100 questions. What did I get wrong? How long is this going to be???????"
I kept going. I had the same thought at 130, 135 ,136, 140, by 149 I was absolutely panicked beyond belief. At 150, with 1.5 minutes remaining, I submitted my final answer. At that point I was shattered. I acknowledged the test was done and clicked a button formally closing the test electronically. "How am I going to face my boss.. what do I tell my spouse?? the schedule for exams is so booked now............. it's going to take months to reschedule my 2nd attempt and I have to keep studying!!!!??? what am I going to do??" ( I had, several times, tired to make adjust my CISSP test date to an EARLIER date, and saw dates were not available for months and months--I was fortunate to have even gotten the date I did because of center limited capacity--Covid-19).
I was firmly convinced because I hit #150 that I 'd not passed the exam. FIRMLY. I told the test center lady, "there's no way I passed this one. I hit question 150..." her reply was, "not necessarily true, there are people that ALWAYS get 150 no matter what. please go to the lobby and get your belongings from the locker." I did just that. I went to the locker.
FYI you do not get your test results until you walk out, get your stuff from the locker, then go back to the desk out front. In the lobby I mean--this is the same with COMPTIA tests etc. The lady, out front, not the lady from the testing area, gave me a sheet face down. I slowly took it and was nervous. I turned it over and first saw the word, "congratulations...." I did a double take. I then even put on my glasses to actually read it and make sure it was correct--"Can this be right?" I asked her, "is this real? it's my picture.. " I knew I had completed many questions knowingly, but there were so many others where I simply picked 1 of the 3-4 "best" correct answers.
She laughed and said, "yes, that is you, you passed."
I teared up. Adrenaline. All that studying.. all that anger during the test, the panic, the questions where I was not all sure I had a clue.. all morphed into a single moment. I told her I could hug her. She got up to hug me, no joke. it was a profound moment in my life to pass this exam. I thought because I had "all 150" questions I did not pass.
Everyone at my work bragged about passing at question 105, 100, 110.. their exam ended at those quantities of questions. This lobby lady again explained what the other person had, that there are many people that get ALL 150. I do not know why I got 150. What matters is I passed. so, do NOT listen to people touting the exam ending "early." You cannot be concerned with this potential or variable. It really caused me a lot of anxiety and it was pointless (my fault admittedly).
There were numerous questions where I was partially certain I had the right answer. And others where I knew I was correct, but those were 20 or less questions. I am not trying to scare anyone. I am saying what people say is true: some questions have 2-4 "correct" answers. You must choose the best one, or perhaps an answer that comprises the other correct choices. It's common sense in some cases, but not others. "Is this one of those 25 that don't count?" etc. I'd ask. 25 exam questions do NOT count against your score and I presume all 25 are in the 1-100 question range. These are valid questions being tested for future exam inclusion, I am told (again, they don't count against your score but you won't know which these are).
12) There were several questions where I had the right answer in my mind but the selection was not available on the test. This means they (ISC) substituted common CISSP terminology for "street terminology." I chose the street term which was most like the CISSP term (and still wasn't sure). This happened at least 5-10 times out of 150 questions. an example of this might be "...make sure a user value is valid.." "What do they mean by this," I asked? who is the user? a Customer? What value are they inputting... ahah!!! I just said the word, "input!!" INPUT. I know what they are asking, now. I chose the answer that was most like "input validation." I am making this as an example. I cannot even recall specifics, but it happened.
13) the exam is unlike any practice questions. I am not kidding. There were times I read a question 4x and I could not understand exactly what was being asked. I re wrote those questions in my mind and sifted out the unnecessary items in my mind. That helped. Other times, I had to look at the answer selections to ascertain what was being asked. None of the practice questions are like this, not even Boson--yet the questions are still often "high level" in nature. Many times 3 answers were correct. Sometimes, all 4 were correct. "most right," "least likely" etc. I think there were a few questions that asked "which is not the least likely to..." Re word those phrases into "Which IS MOST LIKELY to....." common sense, but in the middle an exam, it can be tough to talk like this silently. Talk the questions through in your head. Remove "that" and other unnecessary words. When the test reads, "A person in charge of" mentally say "manager," and so on. Substitute words in your mind to which you can relate, aloud within your head. I feel the practice questions train your mind to rewrite questions quietly, mentally.
14) the exam is a test of endurance, street smarts, and while you must know the material well, I feel you must be able to adapt to the exam's terminology. I get the impressions doctors and lawyers write this exam--NOT managers (I am told it's actually CISSP-endorsed members that write the questions, but we'll never fully know). perhaps Compliance writers construct the exam, but I actually got a medical vibe from the exam in terms of how scenarios were presented. You cannot worry about this beforehand. You simply have to be somewhat solid in the technical material in order to adapt that knowledge to the exam questions at hand.
This is the brilliance of this exam. It would not be worthwhile were it easy. Remember this. Plus knowledge is the reward. I said this numerous times as I panicked before/during the exam--"knowledge is the reward."
15) this exam will ensure you relate technical items to non-technical people and vice versa. This point goes largely unnoticed and unreported. it's the real purpose of the exam, to me. They know you've studied. Now, they want to know if YOU can relate the material not only to the "best" answer, but to perhaps executive management at a company. Can you decode information to get the real story? Can you present these concepts to multiple audiences and be relatable? That's why the exam exists, to me, besides learning the material.
I wish everyone well that read through my long post. I cannot emphasize enough how you can be your own worst enemy mentally, or I can, and there were several times during the exam where I was overcome with emotion and just fretting. It did not help me to be like that. At one point, I thought I was going to pass out, not kidding. This takes a physical toll while you're seated. It's needless.
Just remember no one dies. You're not a doctor performing a medical procedure. You can take the exam again, but why would you want to do such a thing? Let that be your motivation during the exam to patiently read the questions over and over. I read every question twice, and most answers twice. I talked to people that failed the exam and are re-taking it again. They are actually some of the best people in their fields, not kidding. Focus on each question 1x1 of course. But again, I started to watch the clock and picked up my pace around question 80.
Also, pick an answer immediately, while you read them all too. This means you suspect a choice is right.. but you go downward to read them all. There were times this helped me immensely. If B appeared correct right away, but A did not, I clicked on B and continued down to C, then D. Until you click NEXT you can change your answer at will. More often than not, I believe my first choice was correct, but there were times I changed my first selection. At least choose something via elimination process as you commence, then finalize the review of answers. Clicking a choice keeps you physically engaged. There were times I went back to the question and individually weighed each answer against the question asking, "What is being requested--a process? a person? a fix?" I deliberated but I still always selected an answer beforehand WITHOUT clicking next. "ok, here's what you chose.. does this suffice and accommodate the question.. no? .. Yes? what else is better?"
by clicking an answer immediately, I created a baseline that could change within each question. If the question was straight forward, I did not deliberate. I selected my choice and moved on--I especially had to do this after 120 questions, as time was running out. Some questions took 10 minutes. Others took 10 seconds (those were scarce).
Electronically sign the NDA IMMEDIATELY. If you do not sign within 5 minutes, you forfeit the test/fee. Sit down, read it over, sign it. Click next. There was a screen that read, "you are about to begin the test. Click _____ to begin." I did. and the clock in right corner started.
If you must get up, raise your hand before doing so. Do not exit your desk at any time for any reason without raising your hand. They will come and get you (at my exam's end I gave up after having my hand raised for 2+minutes--I literally walked to the door and the lady did not like that--I told her I had raised my hand and she was maybe engrossed in her work and did not notice--I was nothing but cordial, but admitted to her I sat there with my hand raised in the room. She said I should have knocked on the wall, but I told her I did not want to disturb people in the room by knocking and she agreed that would be bad-- and she laughed--she made me walk back in the room, checked the terminal and saw I had indeed closed the test. When you complete the test, you of course click a button acknowledging you have completed the test. You cannot go back and change answers/re-read questions at any time, but they obviously want test takers to "complete" the test (at end) electronically for security purposes. I apologized again for walking and reiterated why I had walked.
I cannot think of anything else. Just study. You can do this. There is no magical solution other than to drill this material into your head. It takes time and many people will have different methods. I did watch a few Cybrary videos as my work paid for them, but frankly, those were less effective than Boson/Pocket prep/sybex online questions/YouTube/11th Hour. I could not concentrate reading the 8th Edition, as stated above. You can in fact make any method of study last a year if you weigh every single answer and create new mental questions against each answer.
Thanks for reading. Sorry I went on and on. I wish you all well and will tell you this exam is passable. You just have to think like a lawyer or CTO, but you must know how to fix problems too. It's not one vs the other. I've worked in telecommunications (LEC/internet/voice/video/SIP/ATM/MPLS/cloud/co-lo data center sales, business analyst, sales engineering) for 20 years. Security for 5 years overall. I have Network+, SIP SSCA, and loads of hands-on Avaya, SONUS, Lucent 5E, wiring experience, data center generator training as well.
I also had unplanned outpatient surgery on nose a few weeks before exam (MOHS). That was a pain because I had to wear bandages and get stitches etc. It all came together and worked out well, but looking back it was amazingly busy and hectic.
--Alex
​
P.S. Throttling. The test undoubtedly adaptively throttles up and down to accommodate your knowledge. I could see easy questions, then hard questions, then harder questions. Some were long, others were very short. I am betting there is a repository of 50,000+ questions and they cycle through these by user. There is no way two users will get the same exam twice, etc. I even got paranoid... "why am I getting another SDLC question??? Does this mean I got that other SDLC one wrong 10 questions back????" You cannot afford to think like that. I have talked to enough people that get loads of BCP questions and zero SDLC, or Risk TCO, etc, to realize the exam likely randomly targets subject matters. There likely is no pattern all the time, but the exam is trying to adapt to your knowledge (neural). It was like a roller coaster but you just focus 1x1 and try not to think about it. One blessing is once you submit an answer, you cannot go back. In some weird way, that presents a finality. Otherwise, with the way this exam is worded, you may go back , etc and run out of time. It is an absolute blessing you can't go back. I have talked to people whom completed the 6-hour test with a pen/paper in past and have re-taken the new format. The consensus from them is the new questions/adaptive are "harder" much "more grey" despite being lower in quantity.
While one should be proud of passing the CISSP, I don't think anyone should gloat. I was (and am) very careful to be humble, especially at the training center in the parking lot where I saw people looking dejected (I am not sure what exams they'd taken, but still understand the emotional roller coaster tests can present).
I still have much to learn, but cannot deny I worked very hard studying for this exam. I will reiterate some of the top Security persons I know, with decades of experience, struggled with the exam and did not pass on first attempts. Those people are in high level engineering, management, SIEM support, and executive roles. What I adore about those people is they are transparent enough to share their honest experiences about why they think they did not pass, and how they passed on further attempts. they helped me. I also talked to several people that found the exam quite easy and those people were shocked others have so many issues. I find these people to be sincere, not conceited, but more "mechanical" in nature in terms of being able to write processes, policies, conduct independent audits, develop BCPs, and so on. Those groups did not struggle with this exam, but admitted it was a grueling exam experience and they too studied, just did not stress perhaps. One such person is a professional aircraft mechanic and he, for his current living, reads manuals while repairing planes for corporate and private flights--he has a Masters in aerospace and years of software development experience atop being an aircraft mechanic--he thought the exam was very straightforward. It's amazing to hear from so many people from so many areas studying and taking this test. I wish everyone well and thank you again for reading this
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