This is such a great feeling. I've been visiting GitHub and looking at everyone else's work. I never wanted to post my work because I thought it was too basic. I made a simple counsel game call Casino Number Guessing Game. It's only 90 lines or so, but I did it!! I'm so happy for my future.

Since The Weeknd is performing at the Super Bowl Halftime show, I thought it’d be nice to post a little guide to his discography for anyone interested in looking to do a deep dive into his work. I would’ve posted this the day of the event, but I assume that some people would probably like to go through it over the weekend.
This shares a direct overview of his released material, talking about his career and the background of the music, the videos, the meanings and all. I’ve written this from a pop perspective, keeping in mind that his history might be fairly new for general pop fans.
I also go into the storyline of the red suit character, if your interested in catching up on that narrative before the Halftime show (which will continue the story), I’ve listed the chronological order below followed by an explanation of that narrative.
I wanna be clear that the interpretations/theories are not conclusive. Abel rarely shares the metaphors or meanings behind his music. This is based on widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Fans can feel free to expand on anything in the comments.
It is important to know about Abel's backstory to get a certain perspective of where he’s coming from, especially when discussing the songs that deal with substance abuse. These recent articles cover his early years really well and share an up-to-date point of view of his success.
Variety 2020
Billboard 2021 - Also a good source for getting to know his team.
So, an essential TL;DR is this: Abel Tesfaye came from a broken home, he was born to Ethiopian immigrant parents who split up when Tesfaye was less than seven. He then lived with his mother and grandmother, only rarely seeing his father but having a nice impression of him. His drug addiction started as soon as he was a high schooler, he turned to shoplifting to pay for this need of various substances. Soon he dropped out of high school, leaving his home the same weekend, which would later inspire his stage name, The Weeknd. The name is reference/homage to the weekend his life changed.
Quick side note, I didn’t think this post would nearly reach the character limit. So I’ve cut out excess detail and lists of producers (with the exception of After Hours since we’re in that era).
Table of contents

1. XO.
2. House of Balloons.
3. Thursday.
4. Echoes of Silence.
5. Trilogy.
6. Kiss Land.
7. King of the Fall.
8. Beauty Behind The Madness.
9. Starboy.
10. My Dear Melancholy.
11. After Hours.

XO.

XO is the record label that The Weeknd and co. created in order to publish the first mixtape (House of Balloons) and the ones that would follow afterwards. XO has a lot of meanings that have to do with what went into the music and what still goes into it. XO is what the fans call themselves, popularly with the phrase XO Till We OD (shortened to XOTWOD); another way of saying “we’re ride or die for The Weeknd and his team.”
While some argue that it could mean anything since there isn’t clear meaning to it, fans continue to associate the abbreviation with ecstasy (X) and oxycontin (O). That definition stems from XOTWOD, fans assume it’s true because of the team’s history of drug usage. While others take it as it’s classical definition “hugs and kisses” because of the consistent lyrical nature of The Weeknd’s songs.
Overtime the definition of XO is simply known as: the fans, the crew, and the label. The Weeknd is more than just one person, he comes with XO. For the sake of clarity in this writeup, I’m going to refer to his crew as XO and the fans as “the fans.”
XO still serves as a record label, the current roster is The Weeknd, Belly, Nav, and Black Atlass. It remains The Weeknd’s record label and was his first label before becoming a subsidiary of Republic Records.
Throughout his career, The Weeknd has worked with Illangelo, a Canadian producer who’s work the fans adore. Carlo “Illangelo” Montagnese was one of main the producers on The Weeknd’s Trilogy, he’s credited on each track. The fan base claims his work to be some of the most notable artistry in The Weeknd’s discography. Their work together continued with Beauty Behind The Madness, Illangelo worked on seven tracks for that album. He then returned for After Hours working on another seven tracks.
DaHeala, another Canadian producer, is another significant factor in The Weeknd’s music. Jason “DaHeala” Quenneville worked as lead producer on Kiss Land. He returned to work on six tracks for The Weeknd’s Beauty Behind The Madness, including the hit Earned It. DaHeala returned as a writer for six of the songs on Starboy. Then DaHeala worked on nine After Hours tracks, and worked as the only producewriter alongside The Weeknd for bonus tracks Missed You and Final Lullaby.

House of Balloons.

Didn't wanna make this NSFW, so here's the super clean edited cover

This is a happy house. We’re happy here. (House of Balloons/Glass Table Girls)

One of the most iconic title tracks of all time. House of Balloons is about a lifestyle of drugs, sex, and partying; all in effort to drown out self-doubt. It comes from a place of wanting to make it big while doing what you can to survive, all while pretending everything’s alright. The mixtape describes various sorts of women, how they’ve had impacted the life of someone who’s already down on his luck.
Fans often refer to House of Balloons as The Weeknd’s best work. The mixtape was the first introduction the world got of XO, and it was one hell of a way to make an impression. It’s personal for the fans and Abel because it’s the only piece of work known to be based on his life. At the end of the day he’s a songwriter, with many of his albums he creates scenarios and world that he likes to explore through the music. But House of Balloons is known to be based entirely on his life. It remains The Weeknd’s most critically acclaimed work.
House of Balloons was crafted through the influences of Hip-Hip/Indie-Rock with the main focus on R&B. Through the genius of Ilangelo, the record was—and is—mesmerizing capturing the essence of a lifestyle that The Weeknd described as “anti-everything.”
House of Balloons assisted The Weeknd in gaining the attention of Republic Records, which would then host The Weeknd’s own label XO. Though hesitant at first, XO decided to partner with Republic after the co-founding brothers Monte and Avery Lipman kept coming back to Toronto solely for The Weeknd.
House of Balloons received three videos, The Knowing, Wicked Games and Twenty Eight. The Knowing was the very first video The Weeknd made, so of course it’d be something other-worldly; it essentially reflects the song itself but in a sci-fi setting. Twenty Eight represents Abel’s life after fame but also his remorse of letting captivating women into his life.
Fun fact— House of Balloons is an actual place in Toronto, it was where him and his crew lived after he dropped out of high school. They’d host parties, call girls, do drugs, and to make it less depressing they’d fill it with balloons.

Thursday.

Valerie on the cover

Welcome to the other side. (Life of the Party)

Thursday consists of the same themes as HoB; sex and drugs. But there’s a twist, he’s in a semi-relationship with this girl Valerie. She’s the only one on his mind, even though they meet only one day of the week, any guesses on what day that could be? Through The Weeknd’s phenomenal voice and the insane production, we’re also presented with this story of a toxic relationship where Valerie used to have the upper hand but she no longer does when she falls for The Weeknd.
While Thursday isn’t entirely about the relationship of The Weeknd and Valerie, it consists of reflections to Abel’s life after the release of House of Balloons. The song Rolling Stone notably has a double meaning, in which Abel asks his fans if they’ll stick with him when he gets mainstream appeal and decides to change his sound.
The track Valerie wasn’t on the original release of Thursday, it added when Trilogy was released. Ending the mixtape with Heaven or Las Vegas meant that The Weeknd’s actions with and without Valerie were a result of his fatherless childhood, making him push anyone away. That meaning behind Thursday doesn’t change when Valerie is added to the track list, it just means that both want the toxic relationship back.
The Zone (feat. Drake) was the first feature The Weeknd had on any of his work, the video for it was released in November of 2012. Rolling Stone had also received a video in October of 2012. Both were directed by The Weeknd and reflect the two different aspects of Thursday. The Zone has Valerie living it up in the House of Balloons. And Rolling Stone has The Weeknd doing a photoshoot for Trilogy, reflective of the song itself.
Fun Fact— the female voice heard in Lonely Star is The Weeknd’s, he pitched his voice to make it sound like a woman’s.

Echoes of Silence.

Diana on the cover

Laisse tomber les filles. Un jour c'est toi qu'on laissera. [Leave the girls alone. One day it’ll be you they will leave.] (Montreal)

Out of a dark introductory into the early life of The Weeknd, Echoes of Silence is the darkest work of his Trilogy. Let’s be honest the story here isn’t entirely ethical at times but makes for one hell of a mixtape.
Similar to Thursday, Echoes of Silence follows a storyline. After accumulating success, The Weeknd gains the attention of various women. There was this one woman (D.D.) who he liked but she initially rejected him (Montreal). The woman came back to him for his fame status and evidently fell in love with him (Outside), but now that he’s got the upper hand he treats him like a groupie (XO/The Host) and lets... bad things happen to her; she’s gotta pass a test before she can get with him. This test is either drugs or his crew (Initiation). He ultimately tells this woman that he’s not exactly longterm-relationship material, perhaps because her love is temporary (Same Old Song), because he’s Next. With the end of Echoes of Silence (originally ending on the title track) the listener is left to wonder why The Weeknd left her if he’d simply want her to stay.
As a side note— Initiation should not be condoned. It remains true that The Weeknd is a songwriter and the progression of time has changed perspectives. But a song that makes such suggestions as Initiation should not be ethically/morally claimed or celebrated.
The mixtape follows The Weeknd’s lifestyle after he’s gained all this success, he’s still the same person but now he’s gotten everything he wanted. Some tracks such as The Fall continue to emphasize his journey into stardom and his acceptance of fame being temporary. With the added Till Dawn (Here Comes The Sun), The Weeknd acknowledges the changes in his life, realizing that the old lifestyle is no longer there for him or his past lovers.
Echoes of Silence is known as an underrated gem of The Weeknd’s discography, it’s well received by fans and critically acclaimed but often brushed under the rug in discussion of his work. A lot of fans and casual listeners play the mixtapes through Trilogy rather than their respective albums. This often leads to people not playing EoS either at all or only the first few tracks, this is predominantly due to the nature of the compilation being nearly three hours long.
Fun fact— D.D. is a cover of Michael Jackson’s iconic Dirty Diana. Fans have named the woman in Echoes of Silence Diana because of this track. Various theories argue that the mixtape itself is based on the Dirty Diana itself with exaggerations of the truth, or whether or not it’s a story The Weeknd crafted based on the song.

Trilogy.

Rolling Stone video doubled as a shoot

You don’t know what’s in store. (High For This.)

Trilogy is a compilation of The Weeknd’s mixtapes, House of Balloons, Thursday, and Echoes of Silence. These three mixtapes were released 3-4 months apart from one another for free digital download in 2011, they gained quite a lot of attention from various industry executives.
Prior to the release of Trilogy, The Weeknd featured on Drake’s Take Care with Crew Love. The song was Abel’s first exposure to a Rap crowd/Rap fans, more people began listening to his music after the release of Take Care. The Weeknd then featured on Wiz Khalifa’s Remember You, which served as the second single off Wiz Khalifa’s O.N.I.F.C. Following those two releases, The Weeknd released Wicked Games as the first single off Trilogy.
Trilogy was formed after The Weeknd came under Republic Records’ management. The compilation album reached a debut/peak position of 4 on the Billboard 200 while reaching number one on the US Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart. It’s a well received album with the highlight said to be House of Balloons, which arguably went on to influence various sorts of R&B music of the 2010s.
Videos for Trilogy

Kiss Land.

Iconic

I went from starin' at the same four walls for 21 years. To seein' the whole world in just 12 months. (Kiss Land)

Kiss Land is based on The Weeknd’s tour life. Visiting unfamiliar places gave Abel horror movie vibes. A guy who used to own the city (Toronto) he lived in is now a small fish in the ocean of the entire world. The Weeknd’s first studio album was a great introduction into the sound he would soon get well acquainted with.
While continuing the R&B sound with the essence of Dark Wave, the album explores emptiness and regret throughout the lyrics—or what pop fans could categorize as dark pop—. The Japanese aesthetic used for various videos and the single covers/booklet reflects the themes of feeling overwhelmed by such a loud world that there’s no point in being if you don’t belong.
The album explores the real-world and the women in it as well as regrets regarding past actions, namely letting go of women who could’ve been the one in Adaptation. The Weeknd attempts to find that satisfaction in other women and past lovers, but accidentally falls for a sex worker in Belong To The World. With Wanderlust he accepts and expresses that love in the modern world isn’t entirely possible. While continuing to tour the world he enjoys these new experiences with XO (Live For feat. Drake), as well as the new women in his life (Kiss Land). And when he’s back home, he accepts the loss of the relationship he cherished.
Kiss Land debuted and peaked at number two on the Billboard 200. It was fairly acclaimed but gained a massive cult following. There were four videos for made for the album, the title track, Belong To the World, Live For (feat. Drake), and Pretty. Those four songs received interesting visuals that kept up with their respective themes while Belong To the World/Kiss Land got visuals that matched the aesthetic of the album. To this day fans ask Abel for a part two to the horror-movie-inspired album after he said it’s the only album he would have a sequel for.
Videos for Kiss Land
Fun Fact— The video for Kiss Land on YouTube is an extremely edited version of the actual video shot for the song. The directors cut further explores the erotic-horror themes if the album.

King of the Fall.

King of the Fall 2020 cover (even though I talk about three other songs here)

Driving by the streets we used to walk through like a triumph. (King of the Fall)

These next few song were released between the Kiss Land and Beauty Behind the Madness era. Some fans would classify them as part of the Beauty Behind the Madness era—I’d say the same tbh—but they stand apart on the basis of success and acclaim. It’s a transition between The Weeknd being an underrated R&B musician to being a mainstream artist with massive recognition and appreciation.
The first of these four songs is King of the Fall. A fan favourite and a standout in The Weeknd’s discography. This is one of The Weeknd’s few Rap tracks, it gained a lot of attention within the Rap sphere. It was the way in which XO would announce that they’ve made it, little did they know that this was just the start.
Prior to the release of Beauty Behind the Madness (BBTM), The Weeknd gained mainstream attention. The Weeknd’s exposure to mainstream music was uphill, it wasn’t overnight. The first taste of BBTM came from Often, a song that reflected the themes of sex that Abel was known for. The track was released more than a year before BBTM’s release and had made it onto the trackless unlike King of the Fall. Slowly but surely The Weeknd gained exposure, his main sources of exposure were through a collaboration and a soundtrack.
Most pop fans heard about The Weeknd through his hit collaboration with Ariana Grande, Love Me Harder. The collab was made through Republic when The Weeknd said he wanted more than what he had gotten through Kiss Land. Ariana and Abel had formed a real bond cough The Hills cough, their bond assisted the song in becoming a memorable hit for both artists. Love Me Harder was a top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100.
Later that year, The Weeknd was featured on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack with Earned It, as well as Where You Belong. Earned It became a massive hit peaking at 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 and receiving an Oscar nomination for The Weeknd; a massive milestone for XO. Earned It kept up with Abel’s signature lyrics but the production differed heavily from the sort of R&B he was known for.
Videos from that era

Beauty Behind the Madness.

I can hear this image

I'm that ***** with the hair singin' 'bout poppin' pills, fuckin' bitches, livin' life so trill. (Tell Your Friends)

Following the success of Love Me Harder and Earned It, the Beauty Behind the Madness era began with The Hills. This was The Weeknd’s first number one on the Billboard Hot 100. Along with the video, The Hills became an addictive classic. The production and lyrics mirror a mature version of the sound that was originally found on Trilogy. It was truly in keeping with The Weeknd’s character, the only difference was his haircut.
Next came Can’t Feel My Face, a Max Martin production that differed greatly from anything The Weeknd put out in the past. In past songs, Abel had expressed his fear of losing his following if he went mainstream simultaneously asking his fans if they’d stay. He repeats that sentiment in the Can’t Feel My Face video. The sound has changed, the lyrics stay the same but now he’s a pop-star. The song became a hit as it reached number one on the Billboard Hot 100. With this massive bop previous fans still stayed, The Weeknd becoming a pop singer didn’t at all alter his image or sound; he mastered it.
In The Night and Acquainted were released as singles on the same day, the were the only singles to come after the release of Beauty Behind The Madness. The former received a music video treatment that followed the theme of the song itself while also starring Abel’s girlfriend at the time, Bella Hadid. Acquainted was robbed of a video even though Abel had shown off the fact that a video was in development; the song kept in the tone of The Weeknd’s work prior to BBTM.
Beauty Behind the Madness captures a Hollywood-based reality that The Weeknd came to understand: the dark aspects of your life will continue to follow you wherever you are. Real Life, Losers (feat. Labrinth), Tell Your Friends, Dark Times (feat. Ed Sheeran), and Prisoner (feat. Lana Del Rey) all capture a nihilistic view of a dream achieved.
Most of the videos of Beauty Behind The Madness have a mysterious white man. He’s featured in The Hills, Can’t Feel My Face, and Tell Your Friends. That man represents the devil. Throughout his journey in those videos, (The Hills) Abel runs into the devil after his car crash, (Can’t Feel My Face) he’s at the club then lights him on fire. The significance behind the fire could be selling his soul to the devil, BBTM is about Hollywood and a popular Hollywood myth is that celebrities sell their souls to the devil in exchange for fame. So in the Can’t Feel My Face video, Abel changes his sound to Pop (from R&B) thus leaving his signature sound in order to become famous, everyone starts enjoying his music once he’s sold his soul.
Then we see The Weeknd burying himself in Tell Your Friends, perhaps leaving the old Abel behind after the deal with the devil. However, instead of thanking the devil, Abel takes his revenge and shoots him. But wait, there’s more! The album trailer for BBTM features the devil burning a billboard with The Weeknd’s face on it, revealing Beauty Behind The Madness. HOWEVER, the final cut for the video features the devil being arrested while The Weeknd watches. This is a more realistic form of karma that the devil gets.
Videos for BBTM

Starboy.

Filled with bops

If I could, I'd trade it all, trade it for a halo. And she said that she'll pray for me, I said, "It's too late for me.” (Ordinary Life)

After the massive success of Beauty Behind the Madness, there was a lot of hype around what The Weeknd would do next; evidently he decided to explore Pop. The fandom he had gained wasn’t entirely based in the Pop sphere, his fans consisted of general Rap fans, but Starboy attracted the Pop audience.
Initially, most of his older fans couldn’t get behind Starboy, it differed greatly from the previous sound. It was crazy to think that the guy who made Trilogy managed to make such a Pop-centric album. But this was Abel expressing his versatility.
Since this is where most pop fans found out about Abel’s work and became fans I won’t talk too much about the singles, rather more about the album itself. His work with Daft Punk cemented this album in an efficient mix between Pop and R&B, where Beauty Behind the Madness was more R&B with Pop, Starboy was considered Pop with R&B.
Beyond the genres, Starboy explores two evident themes. One being his life with fame and recognition. The next being his love life in Hollywood, this aspect of the album came from his relationship with Bella Hadid which ended after the release of the album.
The cross became the symbol for that era and appeared in the album’s photoshoot as well as the videos. There was never any conclusive word on the use of the cross but there are various theories about it, something to note is that Abel was raised Christian, it could perhaps be a reflection of his past.
The cross he uses to destroy his accolades (Starboy video) is assisting him rather than something that’s holding him back. Abel’s upbringing was rough but now he’s celebrating it rather than feeling bad for himself. The cross continues to come up in the Party Monster video, this time it’s in the party house he’s making his way through. Then it shows up in the video for Reminder, this time in the form of his merch, the people wearing it are perhaps representative of his fans. Then we see it in the False Alarm video, both Abel and the girl are wearing it; the notable thing being that Abel holds his cross up before dying. Then in the brilliant video for Secrets, after giving up on the girl he’s with he leaves the building to find a giant cross. And finally in the I Feel It Coming video, The Weeknd sports a shiny cross necklace, and Daft Punk find it years and years after Abel froze.
The videos tell us that the cross is an evident piece of his story. This could mean that his past will always be with him, no matter what sort of fame he’s experiencing he’ll always be who he once was.
Also, I’m gonna take this moment to once again the genius that is the Secrets (both the song and the video). Yes it’s my favourite song/video off of Starboy but it’s so underrated.
Videos for Starboy, Secrets video bottom right
Fun Fact— Most demos of the tracks on Starboy weren’t as pop as they became, they started off R&B but became pop after production.

My Dear Melancholy.

Note the comma

They said our love is just a game, I don't care what they say. But I'ma drink the pain away, I'll be back to my old ways. (Privilege)

Oof (but in a good way, this whole thing is a bop). For this one I’m gonna talk extensively about The Weeknd’s relationships, which personally feels really invasive but it’s but it’s essential when talking about these sad boy anthems. Beyond that I’d just like to state that though they are part of the narrative both Bella Hadid and Selena Gomez deserve respect/privacy.
So when it comes to Pop music fans I think it’s safe to say that we all know a lot about this one. My Dear Melancholy (MDM) came after the very public relationship of The Weeknd and Selena Gomez. However it’s not just about Selena, some songs reflect his relationship with Bella Hadid (whom he got back with a month after MDM’s release).
My Dear Melancholy consists with The Weeknd’s exploration/mastery of merging Pop and R&B together. The EP was praised by fans for its lyrics and production, many went on to theorize that it was his most personal project since House of Balloons. The EP was the shortest album to reach number one on the Billboard 200.
My Dear Melancholy and fan conspiracies; name a better duo. The first theory being that the EP is entirely about Selena Gomez which wasn’t too much of a mystery since the lyric “I almost cut a piece of myself for your life” exists. Not only did MDM come after Abel’s relationship with Selena Gomez but also after his relationship with Bella Hadid. As far as fans were aware those two relationships were the most important relationships Abel had ever been in.
In theory, the songs about Bella and Selena can be categorized. Call Out My Name, Try Me, and Privilege are likely about Selena. Wasted Times, and Hurt You are likely about Bella. Leaving I Was Never There to act as an introspective look into The Weeknd’s life, basically making him hop back on his vices for comfort.
Another popular theory was that My Dear Melancholy was the first of another trilogy. This rumour was widely believed due to the comma at the end of the title on the album cover. But the fans soon gained a real reason to believe this theory, since the CEO of XO (the record label), Sal had liked an Instagram post that featured the cover and alleged date. Since Trilogy is a fan favourite this conspiracy spread like wild fire, so much so that fake titles and covers were made. The name of this trilogy would be: (1)My Dear Melancholy, (2)We’re Alone Together, (3)Abel.
Only one song served as a single for the EP. Call Out My Name was released nearly two months prior to the actual release of the album, it debuted/peaked at number four on the Billboard Hot 100. The mysterious video captures The Weeknd in various atmospheric places that reflect the tone of the EP, a haunting yet unexplained reality that the listener is to reflect on.
From the cover, to the music, to the video, to lyrics, My Dear Melancholy is an introspective reflection of heartbreak.
Call out my name video

After Hours.

Talented, Brilliant, Incredible, etc.

My darkest hours. (After Hours)

After Hours comes after success but references two lows in The Weeknd’s life. The album welcomes darkness and leads the listener towards a dead-end. The Weeknd’s past two albums (Beauty Behind The Madness and Starboy) ended on hopeful notes, they left the listener with a sense of hope but all hope his lost with After Hours.
Fans compare After Hours to House of Balloons—a rare occurrence considering House of Balloons’ acclaim—arguing that both albums are on the same level. Debate continues on whether or not both albums are on the same caliber. The belief that After Hours stems from reality does a lot to help its side of the argument.
The era began with Mercedes-Benz commercial that featured Blinding Lights, that was our first taste of the everlasting bop. Heartless was premiered on an episode of Memento Mori hours before its release on the 27 of November (2019), Blinding Lights was released two days later. Both videos were as brain melting as promised and the served as the tip of the iceberg.
After Hours was released nine days after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, there was a massive risk in releasing an album that would not have a lot of promotion after it’s release (other than magazine coverage). There was no telling whether or not people would pay attention to the album during the height of the fear surrounding the pandemic, but it was a massive success. After Hours debuted at number one on the Billboard 200, with singles Heartless and Blinding Lights topping the Billboard Hot 100.
The album is layered with haunting productions that remains predominantly R&B but dives deep into Pop with some of the tracks. Max Martin produced the massive hit Blinding Lights as well as In Your Eyes, Save Your Tears, Hardest to Love, and Scared to Live which samples Elton John’s Your Song. Other notable producers include Metro Boomin who worked on the hit Heartless as well as Escape from LA, Faith, and Until I Bleed Out. With Kevin Parker on the interlude Repeat After Me.
Beyond the production are the narrative driven lyrics. In theory the album references two significant events in Abel’s life, his second breakup with Bella Hadid and his arrest in Las Vegas. The latter was due to his misbehaviour; in January 2015 he punched a cop in Vegas, lmao. Which means that After Hours is a recollection of The Weeknd’s first few years in LA. He merges the concept of his breakup with the idea of being an upcoming star, feeling free in the city of lights all while diving deep into the meaninglessness of those lights.
While After Hours starts with loneliness and a second chance it leads up to Abel returning to his vices of lust. In Alone Again his loneliness caught up to him and he’s asking for a second chance. He acknowledges his mistakes and situation in Too Late/Hardest to Love, in Scared to Live his ex then returns to him for a second time. He remembers his past ways in Snowchild and the way in which it lead to better days, but where do you go after such highs? In Escape From LA he faces the superficial reality of Hollywood, glad that he got that he got back with his ex, while continuing to question if it’s worth it. But he fucks up the second chance when she pulls up to the studio.
Who is she? Much like the other mysteries surrounding The Weeknd’s music, we may never know. Is it all more of The Weeknd’s songwriting ability or is it driven by reality? Fans found a merge between the two to be more accurate, After Hours is about heartbreak and a return to the vices that held The Weeknd back.
Heartless is when The Weeknd is once again back to his ways, he may have been in a serious relationship but after throwing that away he spirals back to the way he once was. It’s sad but it’s one hell of a song. Speaking of brilliant songs, Faith is when Abel admits that he’s back on his vices, he states that he needs his ex back with him till the end; he’s back to self-loathing.
So when he says he’s blinded by the lights, there’s two meanings to it. The Faith outro tells us that he’s in a car with flashing lights, a cop car (as confirmed by Abel) to be exact. Then Blinding Lights tells us that while he’s watching the bright lights of Vegas pass him by he calls out for the girl that he regrets losing. That is the peak of the After Hours narrative. He’s behaving badly over the loss of the girl he loved and is now at the worst position trying to find her and gain her trust for a third time.
Following Blinding Lights is In Your Eyes, this is where The Weeknd vows not to judge her; he can see right through her but will never do anything to make her upset. Does this mean their back together? Not exactly. Save Your Tears details a sort of moving-on that The Weeknd isn’t ready for but tries to help her move on, blind to his own inability to move on. Does it work? Not really. Repeat After Me (Interlude) shows that he’s still trying to convince himself that he’s unfazed by the loss of a meaningful relationship.
Then you hear a true masterpiece. The title track is a spiral into true regret and an apology for his actions, he admits that his ex girlfriend is the only reason he lives. In a dark lonely city she’s the only one keeping him sane. But his pleas fail, Until I Bleed Out is when The Weeknd no longer wants her in his life so much so that he wants to erase his memory of anything related to her. The bonus tracks then echo the final sentiment.
It’s one sad ass album, ain’t it. But here’s where the Red Suit Character comes in.
Shoutout to the makeup department
The album isn’t the only narrative to follow with After Hours. The videos for the album follow their own sort of narrative. The story follows an unnamed guy that goes by “red suit character” according to The Weeknd.
There’s a lot of confusion and endless theories surrounding this character’s story, after The Weeknd confirmed that it’s about a decent into Hollywood culture it makes more sense… kind of. I’m gonna discuss the storyline without talking about the movies that have influenced it, this way the focus remains on the character.
The order of these videos is Heartless / Blinding Lights / Blinding Lights (Live on Kimmel)* / After Hours short film / In Your Eyes / Until I Bleed Out / Snowchild / Too Late / Live at AMAs* / Save Your Tears
*Though all live performances could count as part of the narrative, these one relate directly with the videos that follow.
He’s is first seen in Vegas with Metro Boomin (Heartless), intoxicated on various substances. He dives deeper into his high until he licks a frog, after that he faces the true effects of this high. He’s frightened by the result and runs far away from Vegas. (Blinding Lights) He’s then found in LA, where he’s dancing in the street, hypnotized by the singer, beat up by guards, and races past all those bright lights in his Benz. Ultimately realizing the shallowness of the Los Angeles fantasy.
(Blinding Lights Live on Kimmel) We then find him performing Blinding Lights live, while he attempts to find more reason in within the madness city; he couldn’t find it on the streets so he goes to the stage. (After Hours short film) Even then there’s no meaning to anything in the city, he mindlessly wanders into the depth of the subway where he’s dragged by the reality of it all and ends up possessed. (In Your Eyes) After being possessed he chases the woman whose boyfriend he just murdered, she runs into a club falls deeper into the After Hours fantasy, in a successful attempt to defend herself she beheads the red suit character and dances all over LA with his head, iconic behaviour.
(Until I Bleed Out) Then in an ethereal dreamscape, red suit character finds himself in a House of Balloons. He’s trying to escape, but the people there keep pulling him in; he’s getting higher while observing Glass Table Girls. He spirals into the antarctic, the other side of the world. From Heatless to this point in his story, his vices lead him back to the lowest point in Abel’s life. Is it Hell, Heaven or Las Vegas? (Snowchild) He relives his career up until the point where his story began. Considering he’s dead, his life basically flashed before his eyes.
(Too Late) LA girls find the red suit character’s head and live their best life. They wanna have sex with him so they find the best boy parts by calling up a stripper who could be the body. The stitch the head up with the body and do what they want. But now he’s brought back to life. (Live at AMAs) He’s had work done… He went in to get his nose fixed and the doctor said “you sure that’s all you want?” The red suit character’s face is healing while he tries to celebrate his life on top of a bridge.
(Save Your Tears) Surrounded by a masked cult he debut’s his new face. Do they like it? Are they impressed? Not instantly, their masks translate no expression so how’s he to know? Is any of this worth it? Nope red suit character continues to die inside. He finds a maskless girl in the crowd, she’s lively unlike the rest; but even then, nothing on the inside nothing on the outside. He wants death again, somehow a second chance with this city is still pointless. He tries to kill himself via the girl and himself but it’s all a facade; theatrics.
His story continues but that’s all we know so far.
The videos make a lot of film references. This post by explain these references very well, as well as past album references here (part one) and here (part two).
After Hours is inspired by a lot of movies, since Abel is in fact a cinephile. The main movies that inspired the aesthetic and storytelling are believed to be Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998), Casino (1995), Joker (2019), Uncut Gems (2020), and After Hours (1985). The album tells two sad narratives but remains one of The Weeknd’s best works yet. He’s expanded his videography and enhanced the interest of people who casually enjoy his music and of course his fans.
But the era isn’t over, by the time this is posted his Super Bowl Halftime show is yet to happen. And it’ll continue the red suit character’s story.
Videos for After Hours (so far)
Fun Fact—The Heartless video features a reference to Thursday. When he’s trying to run from Vegas, a sign behind him flashes “Heartless / Heaven or Las Vegas.” This could be a reference to Abel running from his past, after all Heartless is about him returning to his vices.

END.

Thank you for reading this, again, I didn’t realize it would end up being this long. But I hope this this served as a nice refresher for any fans who wanted to revisit Abel’s work before the Super Bowl.
And I really hope that anyone interested in getting into his music finds this helpful. Once again, the theories/interpretations mentioned aren’t conclusive, they’re widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation.
Due to the character limit I couldn’t add too links to the albums, so here are some artist links.
Apple Music | Spotify | YouTube | The Weeknd’s Shop | Tidal | Genius

1What retiring early is like

It's fucking great.
I wake up happy, I do pretty much whatever I want during the day, I go to sleep happy.
I indulge my limited passions and hobbies, I plunge down fascinating rabbit holes of knowledge, I bugger off to places for months at a time (harder with Brexit, you xenophobic malcontents), I spend time with people I want to. I feel smug.
I don't have an alarm waking me up, I don't need to take any shit off anyone, I don't burn 90 mins a day on a loud bus screeching stop announcements at 90db in my ear.
In the summer I sometimes pop over to the local greenery, have a pint and meal, read a book, soak up the sun. Great stuff.
My phone is always on silent. It can wait.
People occasionally ask me “what I do all day”. If your imagination is so limited, living in such an incredible time, with so much at your fingertips, that the question even crosses your mind, then carry on working and bitching about it, you don't know how to be happy.
“Scipio used to say that he was never less idle than when he had nothing to do “ - Cicero, On Duties.

2How to get there

2.1Difficulty modes

2.1.1Easy mode: Get free university education, get a good job, buy a cheap house

Not too difficult if you were born in 1972. Easy mode is now disabled in the UK. Maybe available in foreign versions of the game, such as in Greece or Denmark.

2.1.2Medium mode: Don't have kids

I swear to god, I have been pretty lucky not to accidentally father a crotch goblin, and believe me, little Goocho often vetoed my brain. Use contraceptives. Notice how all the shit hole countries don't give women control over their reproduction.
If I had foolishly crapped out a kid, I would have had to work another 10 years at least I reckon. Ugh.
Borrow kids to play with them, and return when they start crying.

2.1.3Hard mode: Have kids

Look, if you are spending 100k or whatever to raise a kid I don't know what to tell you, at least you got laid eh?
I hope you enjoy working like I didn't. Seriously, if you have a job you like, great stuff, things will be much easier for you. The impetus to leave it won't be so great. The point of all this is to be happy after all!

2.2Control your costs

Filling your house full of nonsense is consumerism at it's worst.
I practice a kind of minimalism. So I don't own a freezer, a cooker or a dish washing machine. Guess what? They will never need repairing or replacing! But I do own an amazing OLED tv, a solid speaker system, loads of films and books. Minimalism is a whole other subject, and attracts the mentally ill who take it to extremes. Spend money on a decent mattress you fools.
Subscriptions are death by a thousand cuts, and will weigh you down. However Netflix and Amazon Prime are great. Shades of grey.
Screw charities, charity workers get paid salaries and you are supposed to give for free? Nope. Begging scum. “it is only the price of a coffee”, bitch please, I pay 10p a cup for my lovely coffee.
Pay your taxes. Don't be a leech on society.
Live in a small house.
Aldi is great.
If you don't get married, you can't get ruinously divorced, .
Insurance is generally a scam, if you are drunkenly fucking up so regularly than you need your phone insured, sort your life out.
You really need that car? Hmmm. If you are driving to the supermarket and paying for the gym, you are an idiot. Those two cancel each other out.
Only unhappy people play the lottery.
Buy a decent phone for £200, pay £5 a month for service. You think iFruit users will look down upon you? Comparison is the thief of joy.
DIY accomplishments are mentally rewarding, great exercise and cheap – or you can throw money at a problem to make it go away, this is the point of money after all, we sell and buy time with it. Before I buy anything big, I ask myself, is this worth x days sitting in an office for​?
Spend your money how you like, I am not your mum.
Enjoy what you have.

2.3Plan a little

Write down (don't guess) how much you spend a month over a couple of years.
For investments, assume inflation cancels out general increase in non distributing equity value. This is all a rough guessing game anyway, don't pretend it isn't.
I think there are two ways to look at when you can stop working:

2.3.1Cash drawdown per month until death

If you assume you are going to die around 85 (actuarial tables available online), divide your cash + private pension wealth + state pension amount will pay you until age 85 by the number of months left to live, this tells you how much you can spend a month before you die. Sounds like enough? Investment appreciation means you might have more than that.

2.3.2Cash dividends per month

You have a lumpsum of wealth. Flexible uk pension rules means you no longer need to take the annuity gamble. 4% returns a year seems conservatively doable. Can you live on that? Means you die with a load of cash. Stash it in your silk lined coffin.

2.4Play it safe, but not too safe

Assume laws and taxes will change. Don't count too much on that state pension.
If the NHS falls ill itself, you might need some cash to go private. Good luck getting that hip surgery in the next 12 months post covid!
If the stock market takes a 10% dump, you must still sleep soundly. Don't live too close to the edge.
Assume and hope your parents will spend all their wealth on themselves, having a happy end of life in an old folks home. Points off as a human being for relying on your parent snuffing it for free money.
What if your body conks out and you start shitting yourself and have to pay 4k a month to be served Dickensian gruel in a nursing home? Trust in the societal safety net? Work another 5 years just in case? Keep a cyanide pill by the bed? Sell your house I guess? I'm rolling the dice on this one. Maybe dancing in VR and these 50 degree Victorian terrace stairs will keep me fit (or kill me).

2.5Personal Story

Went to Uni, got a Computering degree, got a job I liked, autistic-ally worked at it, got paid lots of money, bought a house at 26 for 48k, parents threw in 10k to get rid of me, paid off the mortgage in 30 months.
After 8 years in said job, started to dislike it, took 6 months off work. Worked another 2 years before I got made redundant, 15k for doing nothing? Yes please!
Worked about half the time from age 32 to 46 as Contractor scum, in jobs I generally disliked or eventually hated. Had 2-3 years between jobs. Snatching retirement chunks from the future. I figured, why leave retirement until I am too old to enjoy it? Took around 3 months to get a new job each time, I didn't care, I loved not working!
Played casino blackjack for a couple of years for ~8 hours a week, made £12k. Shuffling machines have stopped all that now, was bored of it anyway.
Decided at 40 I had better get a pension, threw money at it when working.
So at 46, when I walked out on the pathetic management at my last gig (FIS Birmingham, you see when you are retired, you really don't have to give a shit!), I had worked for a total of ~15 years, thoroughly enjoyed not working and was sick of working.
At 47 I realised maybe I don't actually need another job? Started paying real attention to my finances.
At 48, I have 110k cash & 140k pension = 250k. 4% a year dividends = 10k a year. I can live happily on that.
£800 a month is enough. I spent £350 a month in December and January, had a great time. Will get a PS5 when available, boiler is bound to break eventually. It all evens out.
My state pension fortells a sickly £117 per week. Meh. Forgive me for not factoring that in too much. Who knows where I will be in 20 years? Hopefully sleeping in late without an alarm clock.

Decided to make another post as the "leaker" allegedly had another AMA on 4chan (taken down again) where he clarified a few things that were misinterpreted and also decided to reveal more things about the game. I decided to clarify a few things about my last post as well as some people seem confused about a few details that I mentioned.
Credits to u/Elena_xoxo for bringing the second AMA to light in a post in the GTA6 subreddit and also u/roughpreference991 for the screenshots of the AMA. The archived version of the first AMA can be found here. Again, take it with a huge grain of salt because of it being a 4chan leak and no way to know if both the AMAs are done by the same person.
This time around the leaker comes with a bolder claim about the credibility that they have been working at R* since 2004 and is primarily a developer. The leaker claims that they know the staff in every area of the dev team. The leaker mentions multiple times to capture the thread and 99% of it will be confirmed "sooner than you think"(Of course, this does not prove shit but could be interesting in retrospect).
Now to jump into the details of the second AMA:

• Same engine as RDR2 and GTAV but definitely improved upon. Ray tracing is in use but limited to reflections and shadows. Leaker mentions not to expect ray-traced light until the PC release.
• They also mention that what they said about the map size of the game in the previous AMA was misunderstood. What they meant was that the fastest transportation in RDR2 takes roughly 15-20 minutes to travel the longest possible route whereas GTA VI is around 13-15 minutes. They mention that the map is bigger than RDR2's in landmass. (The inconsistency of their details of the map from the previous thread is a big red flag imo)
• Complete freedom regarding exploration, you aren't forced to play through the main story and can go exploring anytime you want.
• They also mention that one of the confirmed songs is "Always on my Mind" by the Pet Shop Boys. (Mentioned in the previous AMA as well but they mention the song name this time.)
• Large number of building enterable and they all have textures unique to them but not every building is enterable as it is just too hard to implement.
• Better physics than GTAV as RDR2 was taken as the base for it and then built upon for the modern world. Driving feels less arcadey than GTAV but not as weighted as GTA IV's.
• The gap between consoles and PC release estimated to be 12 months by the leaker.
• The leaker again refuses to leak the MC's name but does mention that he has a mother and a sister. The MC calls the sister Frankie and also the father is dead. (Maybe you play as the father in the 1970s part of the game as I mentioned in the last post who dies when the MC is a kid and then maybe you play as the MC in the modern-day counterpart).
• The game has "deceptive" amount of content already according to the leaker.
• There's a famous 80s singer hosting one of the radio stations.
• Monetization at the launch of Online will be a lot lighter than GTA Vs due to the company being concerned about bad press.
• More hair and facial types that can be mixed and matched and also supposed to be period-specific for the online counterpart. Also, there will be a choice of body type but nothing specific like Fat, average, fit, muscular, etc,
• There will be a morality meter for the first time similar but not identical to RDR2's system. This will affect certain missions and outcomes.
• 2 limited maps within the game. Liberty City (pretty much on rails) and a "Cuban" island.
• Supposed to be a satirical representation of America in the 1980s.
• There's one side mission that's pretty much just one giant easter egg for the Goonies. It is not given to the player by an NPC but started by finding a map (Like one eyed willies).
• There is one interesting detail, the leaker first states that the protagonist is older than Tommy Vercetti but then, later on, admits that he made a mistake and that the protagonist is actually 2 years younger than Tommy. (This is the most interesting detail as it can actually be an honest mistake on their part or it could be a clever and subtle way to fake their credibility by acting as if it was an honest mistake.)
• The North Point Mall looks really good now and it's way bigger.
• There's a scarface style montage that holds a lot of meme potential. (This was an answer to someone asking the leaker if there are any memeable moments)
• Main forms of transport stated to be cars, motorcycles, boats, helicopters, and seabirds.
• Controls are just a refined version of what you've seen in previous titles. Gunplay is essentially a modified version of RDR2 mechanics. No parkour-style traversal mechanics in the game.
• Full body nudity in strip clubs and even during some cutscenes. Also, if you build up a good enough affinity with certain women, you can "make love".
• Fidelity and Performance mode similar to something like Miles Morales.
• You can work out but transformation won't be as dramatic as GTA SA. You have to also make sure that you're eating or you won't grow. Some more side activities mentioned by the leaker are gambling, dancing, and roller derby which they also previously mentioned in the last AMA.
• NPCs are like RDR2 but in a GTA setting. The police don't just shoot you to death for small crimes anymore. If you get the option to bribe the officers for petty crimes.
• Using fists have better development than the previous GTA. You can grab people and punch them in a clinch. There are unique animations for stealthy kills.
• One example of better car detailing that the leaker gives is of Ferrari Enzo (not called that) and it looks as if it could be in a GT7.
• The leaker states that there are a lot of 80s references in GTA Online recently. Also, the song choice for casino update was 80s related.
• When someone asked if there is a protagonist replacement point like in RDR2, the leaker declined to say as it might spoil some of the story. The prologue and 1st chapter are set in the 1970s all the way till 1987.

Again I can't stress enough to take all of this with a huge grain of salt as a lot of details could easily be educated guesses, there is no way to even know if both the AMAs were done by the same person and the credibility itself but had to compile it for my Reddit peeps.
I also wanted to clarify a few things from my last post as well:

• I did mention that the first 2 chapters are set in the late 1970s, to be more specific the prologue and 1st chapter are set in that time period, and it goes from the late 1970s till 1987.
• The Ricardo codename mentioned for the protagonist in the last game was indeed based on the Ricardo Milos meme. (The leaker stated that the protagonist has "sun-kissed" tan so maybe that's why the codename.)
• RDR1 is technically being "remastered" as the map was already made in the newer engine so it's not a remake. The leaker also did state in the last AMA that it looks like a next-gen game.
• A lot of people mentioned that Ken Rosenberg and Tommy Vercetti cannot exist in the HD universe as R* has stated that the HD universe is different than the previous games. While I don't deny that but at the end of the day, it's R*'s intellectual property so it wouldn't be surprising if they did it. The other possibility could be an alternate version of the same characters that exist in the HD universe.

Hey guys, I have a bit of a long DD on ACAC / Playstudios. You can read the text below. If you want to see the full post with all the nice pictures, you can check it out here. I was too lazy to upload each picture individually to Imgur. Apologies in advance.
I've seen numerous people on Reddit compare the ACAC / Playstudios SPAC to Skillz, and some even to Draftkings. I think this is mainly because they're all in the online gaming / gambling industry, but aside from that, the companies themselves are quite different.
I think a more apt comparison should be between Playstudios and Playtika (Ticker: PLTK), since they operate in the same vertical, compete against one another in mobile slots games, and Playtika has publicly available financial data in which I will be making comparisons against.
Playtika Analysis
You can find Playtika's prospectus here
First and foremost, Playtika is one of the leaders in the mobile casino space. They have an assortment of games, and they themselves are diversifying into more casual games (similar to what Playstudios says they are trying to do), but their bread and butter are casino games, and the ones that make the most money for them are slots.
Slotomania, House of Fun, and Caesars Slots are all mobile slots games, and as you can see from the above, they generate a significant portion of Playtika's revenues (roughly 50% of their 2020 revenues).
OK, so why do I keep bringing up Playtika? Well, they had a very interesting graph that shows how much of their revenues come from different segments of their user base, based on when they acquired those users.
What this chart is saying is that 45% of their revenues came from users acquired from 2013 and earlier!
This is insane! They have such high user retention and user LTVs, that they're still monetizing a portion of their users that they acquired from 7 years ago.
If we go up to 2017, then roughly 75% of their revenues come from users acquired 2017 and earlier!
This is important because Playtika's oldest games are all slots games. So this is telling us that users that play mobile slots games, they tend to stay with those games for extremely long periods of time, and if they do stick with them, they spend a lot of money! This is great news since the vast majority of Playstudio's revenues come from mobile slots games.
If you look at Playtika's financials, you'll notice pretty nice revenue growth. However, a lot of that is non-organic, and was accomplished through M&A. This was because in 2016, Playtika was acquired by a consortium of Chinese game companies for $4.4 billion (including Giant Network, a well known gaming company in China), and they need to make revenue numbers higher to have a better story to sell for the IPO.
And part of their strategy was to diversify into casual games, and they did so by acquiring about 15 companies since 2016, including Wooga (developer of June's Journey, a very profitable find hidden objects mobile game) and Supertreat (developer of Solitaire Grand Harvest, a profitable card game).
However, one of the caveats of casual games is that the ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) is lower, and retention is lower than casino games. I did my own calculations on Playtika's ARPPU for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you can see the noticeable downtrend. This was obviously not disclosed in the prospectus. Only ARPDAU (average revenue per daily active user) was disclosed.
My belief is that even though ARPPU and retention are lower, maybe the market is giving a higher multiple to casual games. I believe that even though online gambling is beginning to see legalization in many states, and more and more people are starting to be open to it, there is still a bit of a social stigma associated with it, and certain investors may be wary to investing in a pure "casino" play. That's why Playtika is making such a concerted effort to move away from purely casino games, and positioning itself as an mobile entertainment company. Another reason is also the immense competition and high user acquisition costs, but Playtika has shown that they are more than able to execute on a long term strategy here.
Playstudios Analysis
Before jumping into anything else, I want to go straight to Playstudio's financials.
The reason is because I think there's a lot of fluff here, and I want people to know the bullshit. But even when you see through the bullshit, the downside is still mitigated enough to warrant this play.
So first off, take any numbers you see from 2022 with a grain of salt. No one knows what's going to happen this year, let alone two years in the future, and in my eyes, those 2022 numbers look extremely unrealistic. Revenue growth will probably not be that high, unless they make some big acquisitions, and EBITDA margin expansion probably won't be that fast.
Revenue Growth
Playstudios is planning on launching a Bingo and an RPG game, and their plan is to aggressively spend on UA (User Acqusition) in 2021. Their hope is that revenues will scale up with their UA, and by 2022, they can lower their UA spend a bit, and continue to monetize the new games exceptionally well, maybe at an even better rate than 2021.
I think this is a bit farfetched, especially in such a competitive space as Bingo. I've done analysis on Bingo games before, and some of those games have also been around for 8 to 10 years, and they can't expect to just launch a game and have it ramped up to their expected revenue in a year's time. Development for those games requires game designers, people who are very good at math, product designers, and a many other people, which can make the development timeline quite long (at least a few months, for a more finished product, I think at least half a year for these guys). I think a more plausible scenario is that they acquire a smaller Bingo player, and then begin optimizing that game, and add in their own loyalty rewards, as that's the quickest way to ramp up revenues post IPO.
My guess is revenues are not going to ramp up as quickly as they expect, and they'll see limited revenue growth here, and still mainly see some growth from better monetizing their slots players. I think by 2022, somewhere between $350 million to $400 million in revenues is more reasonable, and I'd probably lean towards the lower end of that range.
Margin Expansion
In terms of margin expansion, I think the decrease in cost of sales is doable. It seems like there is some extra fat there that they can trim as they scale. The cost of sales is mainly the tax that Apple and Google charges when users make a purchase through their respective stores, and this is a flat 30%. I doubt they'll get it less than 30% any time soon, but that will probably be through getting their whales to make purchases outside of the Google Play Store or App Store, and using a much cheaper payment processor.
I think a long term goal of 20 - 25% for UA spend is reasonable. I'm OK with these numbers, though they may need to spend more initially to ramp up new games. One of the benefits of their loyalty rewards program is that they can have higher retention, and this might be a way for them to lower their UA spend, since people may be more willing to tell their friends about a free trip or prize they won through a mobile game.
Another reason I'm OK with the UA spend is because it seems like they have a pretty knowledgeable UA team. I have access to App Annie, a data analytics company that tracks mobile apps, and I checked out the download history for POP! Slots, one of Playstudio's mobile games.
You'll notice that US downloads spiked quite a bit in March. This is right when COVID-19 was beginning to spike in the US, and people began working from home. In the mobile app world, many apps had spikes in downloads in March and April 2020 because there was a much larger pool of users looking to download apps. CPAs came down, and companies that had strong UA teams were able to capture a lot of these new users. Thus, this tells me that Playstudios UA team was at least aware of ongoing trends in the mobile app space, and they were able to capitalize by gaining more users during that period of time.
The biggest issue I have is with the "All Other Expenses." I don't know why it's this high (R&D and G&A shouldn't be that high), and Playstudios definitely needs to do some expense cutting here. While this has the most room to cut, it may be the hardest since I'm guessing a lot of that cost is from legacy employees. But if they can get this to around 30% by 2022, I'll be happy.
Playstudios Has No Daily Active Users (DAU) Growth
This is a common issue I see raised on Reddit and I want to address it here. Below is another chart from App Annie, which has DAU estimates.
As you can see, DAU has remained pretty flat for the past 2 years, roughly between 150K and 200K users.
But have you considered that revenues were actually increasing during this time? This means that Playstudios is becoming more efficient at monetizing their current users (getting more money out of older players), or their user acquisition team is targeting more profitable users.
And this is just how the game is played in the mobile apps world.
Users will eventually get sick of a game and stop playing. Not many games can count on users organically finding their game, and continuing to play indefinitely. To maintain a certain DAU, companies generally have to spend money on UA to maintain that user base. It becomes a business where you are calculating how much you are spending on UA, and whether the LTV and retention are good enough that you can make money in the long run from those users. You can think of it as an ROI on your marketing spend.
And this is especially true for mobile game apps. If it were a social app, then yes, something like the network effect can come into play, and UA spend would be much lower. But for Playstudios, maintaining a steady DAU is actually a sign that their UA team knows what they're doing, and they're able to maintain a profitable and highly efficient business. It's actually a positive that they can maintain their DAU, and even INCREASE their revenues during that period.
End Game?
I don't actually know how this will end up. I don't give price targets cause I have no idea how the markets will value this company. But I can provide a few data points so that you can make your own decisions.
From a multiples standpoint, Playstudios is cheap on a revenue multiple basis compared to Playtika, and is about the same from an EBITDA multiple basis.
I personally don't think that Playstudios is a play that's going to 5X. Hell, even 3X I think will be a stretch. But, they do have a loyalty program that will help lower their UA costs, and extend the lifespan of their users. And they are moving into more types of games to diversify their revenue source.
The reason I like this play is because I think the downside is heavily limited. The lifespan of casino slots players are so long, and the revenues are pretty stable (even growing), that there isn't an immediate risk that revenues will all of a sudden drop 30%, as is the case with lots of other mobile game companies. Add on top of this the potential for new revenue growth drivers from Bingo and RPG games, and the potential for margin expansion, that this is an easy 30-50% upside from current prices with almost minimal downside.
One last minor bit, is that I'm sure lots of people missed out on the hype surrounding Draftkings and Skillz, and I'm sure there are some retail investors that will look for any type of casino / mobile gaming / gambling deals, and may jump on this as well. My feeling is that there is also a potential upside from the hype or FOMO factor.
Anyway, this is my analysis on Playstudios / ACAC, hope you guys enjoy.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. These are my personal views and analysis on Playstudios. Please do your own due diligence.
Disclosure: I own 400 shares of ACAC.

Gta 4 map was everything Gta v is “lacking” it had an alive city, lots of enterable buildings and it was inmersive, but even with all that %90 of the lobbies were just players killing each other at the airport
Im speaking exclusively about the online mode, GTA V map might not be ultra detailed or feel alive and immersive, but is big fun and entertaining and there is always something to do anywhere in the map.
Regardless of the number of players in the lobby, rockstar knew how to make players spread out all over the map, u see players at sandy shores, the docks, the airport, downtown , at the casino etc etc.
Just the possibility to use jets, helicopters and airplanes alone makes me lean towards a big but not detailed map rather than the small but detailed one, just look at how Cyberpunk is lacking this features.
Honestly i love the gta map and I don’t agree with those who want an ultra realistic and immersive map, if you want that just go outside there and do whatever, GTA is a videoGAME, not real life.
At the end of the day it doesnt fucking matter how u and me feel, Rockstar will follow the same Gta v path on Gta Vi.
GTA 5 its the most successful and profitable entertainment product to ever exist. And before that Gta San Andreas had massive success too, guess what? Both have big but not detailed alive and inmersive maps
Just accept the facts, if you dont like the current state of Gta V you will be really disappointed when gta vi releases and youll see it is not different than Gta v

In 2009 Ohio voters passed a constitutional amendment allowing for 4 casinos in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, & Toledo. Construction began on the Cincinnati casino in 2011 with Horseshoe Cincinnati opening in 2013. Over the years the Cincinnati Casino has changed hands and branding multiple times and has failed to build the hotel that was expected to be constructed a few years after opening. Overall from what I've heard the Cincinnati casino doesn't seem to be doing that well and a lot of people complain about them being one of stingiest around with payouts. A few days ago it was reported that Dan Gilbert the one time owner of the Cincinnati & Cleveland casinos and the "money" behind the push to legalize gambling back in 2009 is selling his Cleveland property. I guess Ohio casinos were not the windfall they were thought to be.
So here is a question: Has the Cincinnati casino lived up to voter's expectations as a generator of tax revenue and as a boon to tourism in the Cincinnati area? Or has Ohio's lucky numbers proven to be unfruitful as other states like Kentucky & Indiana attempt to elevate their game?

Decided to make another post as the "leaker" allegedly had another AMA on 4chan (taken down again) where he clarified a few things that were misinterpreted and also decided to reveal more things about the game. I decided to clarify a few things about my last post as well as some people seem confused about a few details that I mentioned.
Credits to u/Elena_xoxo for bringing the second AMA to light in a post in this subreddit and also u/roughpreference991 for the screenshots of the AMA. The archived version of the first AMA can be found here. Again, take it with a huge grain of salt because of it being a 4chan leak and no way to know if both the AMAs are done by the same person.
This time around the leaker comes with a bolder claim about the credibility that they have been working at R* since 2004 and is primarily a developer. The leaker claims that they know the staff in every area of the dev team. The leaker mentions multiple times to capture the thread and 99% of it will be confirmed "sooner than you think"(Of course, this does not prove shit but could be interesting in retrospect).
Now to jump into the details of the second AMA:

• Same engine as RDR2 and GTAV but definitely improved upon. Ray tracing is in use but limited to reflections and shadows. Leaker mentions not to expect ray-traced light until the PC release.
• They also mention that what they said about the map size of the game in the previous AMA was misunderstood. What they meant was that the fastest transportation in RDR2 takes roughly 15-20 minutes to travel the longest possible route whereas GTA VI is around 13-15 minutes. They mention that the map is bigger than RDR2's in landmass. (The inconsistency of their details of the map from the previous thread is a big red flag imo)
• Complete freedom regarding exploration, you aren't forced to play through the main story and can go exploring anytime you want.
• They also mention that one of the confirmed songs is "Always on my Mind" by the Pet Shop Boys. (Mentioned in the previous AMA as well but they mention the song name this time.)
• Large number of building enterable and they all have textures unique to them but not every building is enterable as it is just too hard to implement.
• Better physics than GTAV as RDR2 was taken as the base for it and then built upon for the modern world. Driving feels less arcadey than GTAV but not as weighted as GTA IV's.
• The gap between consoles and PC release estimated to be 12 months by the leaker.
• The leaker again refuses to leak the MC's name but does mention that he has a mother and a sister. The MC calls the sister Frankie and also the father is dead. (Maybe you play as the father in the 1970s part of the game as I mentioned in the last post who dies when the MC is a kid and then maybe you play as the MC in the modern-day counterpart).
• The game has "deceptive" amount of content already according to the leaker.
• There's a famous 80s singer hosting one of the radio stations.
• Monetization at the launch of Online will be a lot lighter than GTA Vs due to the company being concerned about bad press.
• More hair and facial types that can be mixed and matched and also supposed to be period-specific for the online counterpart. Also, there will be a choice of body type but nothing specific like Fat, average, fit, muscular, etc,
• There will be a morality meter for the first time similar but not identical to RDR2's system. This will affect certain missions and outcomes.
• 2 limited maps within the game. Liberty City (pretty much on rails) and a "Cuban" island.
• Supposed to be a satirical representation of America in the 1980s.
• There's one side mission that's pretty much just one giant easter egg for the Goonies. It is not given to the player by an NPC but started by finding a map (Like one eyed willies).
• There is one interesting detail, the leaker first states that the protagonist is older than Tommy Vercetti but then, later on, admits that he made a mistake and that the protagonist is actually 2 years younger than Tommy. (This is the most interesting detail as it can actually be an honest mistake on their part or it could be a clever and subtle way to fake their credibility by acting as if it was an honest mistake.)
• The North Point Mall looks really good now and it's way bigger.
• There's a scarface style montage that holds a lot of meme potential. (This was an answer to someone asking the leaker if there are any memeable moments)
• Main forms of transport stated to be cars, motorcycles, boats, helicopters, and seabirds.
• Controls are just a refined version of what you've seen in previous titles. Gunplay is essentially a modified version of RDR2 mechanics. No parkour-style traversal mechanics in the game.
• Full body nudity in strip clubs and even during some cutscenes. Also, if you build up a good enough affinity with certain women, you can "make love".
• Fidelity and Performance mode similar to something like Miles Morales.
• You can work out but transformation won't be as dramatic as GTA SA. You have to also make sure that you're eating or you won't grow. Some more side activities mentioned by the leaker are gambling, dancing, and roller derby which they also previously mentioned in the last AMA.
• NPCs are like RDR2 but in a GTA setting. The police don't just shoot you to death for small crimes anymore. If you get the option to bribe the officers for petty crimes.
• Using fists have better development than the previous GTA. You can grab people and punch them in a clinch. There are unique animations for stealthy kills.
• One example of better car detailing that the leaker gives is of Ferrari Enzo (not called that) and it looks as if it could be in a GT7.
• The leaker states that there are a lot of 80s references in GTA Online recently. Also, the song choice for casino update was 80s related.
• When someone asked if there is a protagonist replacement point like in RDR2, the leaker declined to say as it might spoil some of the story. The prologue and 1st chapter are set in the 1970s all the way till 1987.

Again I can't stress enough to take all of this with a huge grain of salt as a lot of details could easily be educated guesses, there is no way to even know if both the AMAs were done by the same person and the credibility itself but had to compile it for my Reddit peeps.
I also wanted to clarify a few things from my last post as well:

• I did mention that the first 2 chapters are set in the late 1970s, to be more specific the prologue and 1st chapter are set in that time period, and it goes from the late 1970s till 1987.
• The Ricardo codename mentioned for the protagonist in the last game was indeed based on the Ricardo Milos meme. (The leaker stated that the protagonist has "sun-kissed" tan so maybe that's why the codename.)
• RDR1 is technically being "remastered" as the map was already made in the newer engine so it's not a remake. The leaker also did state in the last AMA that it looks like a next-gen game.
• A lot of people mentioned that Ken Rosenberg and Tommy Vercetti cannot exist in the HD universe as R* has stated that the HD universe is different than the previous games. While I don't deny that but at the end of the day, it's R*'s intellectual property so it wouldn't be surprising if they did it. The other possibility could be an alternate version of the same characters that exist in the HD universe.

Well done. Somehow, against all odds, a large number of you autistic fucks have made some life changing gains on GME. This post is in no way encouraging you to sell your positions or even open new ones. Thats because I'm not a fiduciary advisor and know fuck all about what you should or shouldn't do. All I will say is welcome to all the new members out there and if there's one piece of advice I can give you, its to trust your gut.
Now lets get into it. This post is my DD that I wanted to share on $VIRT, not because I am recommending you to do anything, but because I enjoy researching shit because its fun and I figured this would help organize my thoughts.
So lets get into it. I'm sure most of you have noticed the new exposure this sub has been getting on a worldwide scale. If you've been here even since Dec. in 2020, you'd notice this sub has even gained over 6M subscribers in the last month. I'm not going to tell you I've been around since the start, I've just been lurking and a post or comment every once and a while since I started following a few years ago. The sub count really means fuck all to be honest, the real numbers that are important here are the #'s of new retail traders joining the markets while bringing in new money by doing so. Give this Reuters article a quick read (promise it will only take 5 minutes, 10 if you're a true retard): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-numbers-idUSKBN29Y2PW
For those who are lazy fucks who don't want to open the article: with no fee trading, retail traders have flooded the market. To what extent you may ask, and why the fuck does this matter? Well back in Jan 2020, before the March crash, retail made up ~17% of trades on the market. By July/August, this shot up to 25%. Some analyst in this article noted their prediction for 2021 is 30%+ of volume will be made up of retail. THE TREND IS INCREASING for those of you who couldn't pass your 2nd grade math class. So why did i even mention GME to start? Well according to an analyst from Piper Sandler, this past Wednesday set a new record for volume traded for US cash equities of 24.5 Billion . Thats volume traded, not a $ amount. Options volume also hit a record high in volume at 57.1 Million. For both stocks and options, this supposedly is double the record in volume traded in a single day from 2020, or triple in 2019. One last important #, its estimated amongst the top 6 brokers, there are 100 Million+ retail traders. 100 Million thats a fuck ton of regular Joes' and retards joining the game gambling away their $600 stimulus checks.
TLDR: Retail trading #s are going the fuck up, and fast. This in turn mean a fuck ton more volume traded on the market.
OK Cool. Why does this matter? Well aside from Melvin Securities (Melvin Capitals Market Makescum of the earth), there are other Market Makers that do the same thing (provide liquidity to brokers allowing autists like us to buy and sell stocks and options). Companies like $VIRT, Virtu Financial, that are publicly traded. Lets take a look at the breakdown of trading volume across market makers, Brokers, Liquidity providers etc:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BjrX0/1/
$VIRT has showed a consistent increase in trading revenue and EPS since their IPO in 2015. This growth is due to various synergies on their platform from previous buyouts, volume spikes (due to volatility) and you guessed it, an increased amount of retail trading. According to their 2019 full year report, they supported approximately ~30% of all retail trading. This is up from 25% the previous year. https://s21.q4cdn.com/422114427/files/doc_financials/2019/aVirtu_2019_AnnualReport_Final.pdf
Ok so why does all this matter, if this trend in increased retail trading continues, that means more trading income for $VIRT. And turn, higher earnings. Why? This is because those Ask/Bid spreads you see when buying/selling are typically provided through market makers. They make money off of these spreads. 1 cent here or there, maybe a little more for wider spreads times millions of trades/day equals out to big money for them. An even bigger wet dream would be if Melvin Securities went under and that portion of the market making sector being open for the taking. Then again, that probably won't happen but regardless Fuck Melvin.
So what else? $VIRT has provided a $0.24 dividend for 22 consecutive quarters and also announced $100 million in buy backs on their Q3 report released in Nov 2020, also making a statement to "meaningfully enhance shareholder returns" with additional buybacks and dividends moving forward. And a shout out to the true gambling addicts who love earnings plays, $VIRT has earnings coming up on Feb 11th. Thats this Thursday. Lets even take a look at their revenue growth. According to their 2019 full year report, Virtu took in $1.5B in revenues. Fast forward to the first 3 quarters of 2020, that totals over $2.5B and we still even haven't seen Q4 results yet. While yes, the volume in March/April played a part in this, Q3 revenues were still over $650M, which is still over a third of the full 2019 year. Their current market cap is only ~$5.4B with a PE of 6.6. Talk about nice returns. Time to bet on the Casino instead sitting down at the fucking roulette table.
TLDR: More retail trading = more $$ for market makers like $VIRT
Positons: https://imgur.com/a/4QJA38m
Planning on converting to shares for long term holding with an eventual PT of $100 by end of 2021.

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.