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Alright. Hear me out autists. We all know bears are gay. But with TSLA shares reaching an ATH of $816.99, it sure seems like its fundamentals are completely divorced from reality. And the media analysts have been pounding on TSLA for seemingly years now. So is this a good company to be a gay bear on? Or Nah? (edit: TSLA ATH now @ $884 lol)
 
On 7 Jan 2020, Royal Bank of Canada admitted that "There is no graceful way to put this other than to say we got TSLA's stock completely wrong" and upgraded TSLA from $339 to $700. And on 6 Jan 2020, Morgan Stanley upgraded their TSLA price target to $810 when just 18 months ago they announced their comically low price target of $10 (that's $2 post split) resulting in a massive rally. Did Morgan Stanley dive head first into WSB level 3 autism territory, or is there something that the uninitiated could be missing? Let's do a deep dive into Tesla the company and see if their stock really is in a bubble, or if there could be some substance behind the current insane rally.
 
 
The common FUD narrative among TSLAQ is that TSLA's $800+ billion market cap is now larger than the 10 largest auto manufacturers combined. (edit: Apparantly this is a common FUD talking point that is/was false. TSLA is/was nowhere near that level when it was touted around as so. Although it is undeniable that Tesla's market cap became more and more absurd throughout 2020)
 
Indeed, this is quite insane. Even without us autists doing complex calculations, a simple google search shows that they would have to sell around 65 million vehicles a year to be priced at that level. So how many vehicles did Tesla produce? Tesla announced on 2 January 2020 that they've sold a little shy of 500K vehicles for CY 2020 with plans to increase production by 50% YoY. This would ultimately bring them to 20 million vehicles produced by 2030.
 
20 mil by 2030. Although we all know the term "Elon Time", which refers to CEO Elon Musk casually announcing an estimate of a product and missing projected timelines by large margins, there seems to be some credibility to this statement. Back in 2014, Elon Musk gave an interview (2:28) where he stated "I feel comfortable that we'll be able to achieve at least half a million cars a year by 2020".
 
OK. So let's give him the benefit of the doubt. As a matter of fact, Tesla is actually building factories at breakneck speeds with construction literally running 24/7 and each of their large factories (Austin and Berlin) is said to be capable of producing up to 2 million vehicles a year. Giga Berlin which was an empty field 9 months ago is already close to finishing its outer construction layer. Obviously they plan to announce more factory constructions in the future as well. So they do seem to be on track to grow on average 50% YoY for now. But 20 million cars produced by 2030 is still massively shy of 65 million vehicles. Even with growth factored in, TSLA's stock valuation still seems insanely high. So what gives? The common explanation among the Tesla fanboys is that TSLA is a tech company, not an automotive company, so it should be valued just so.
 
So what is this mystical technology the fanboys speak of, and how is it being deployed in terms of profitability for Tesla? Well, it turns out that Tesla has three main technological advantages and two main revenue streams that might put them leaps and bounds ahead of competitors.
 

1. Autonomous Driving - Tesla is the current market leader in vehicle autonomy. It has over 3 billion miles logged as of April 2020. The next industry leader Waymo (owned by google) has approximately 20 million miles logged. One thing for sure is that no company will be able to catch Tesla in terms of pure data advantage within the next 4-5 years. And when it comes to Artificial Intelligence, data is king. This could be the bread and butter of Tesla. Tesla already charges customers $10k per vehicle to enable full self driving in which 25% of their customers choose the option. However, Tesla hasn't taken full profits on their books yet due to it still being in beta mode. Once they solve autonomy, an over-the-air (OTA) software update will be sent out just like how your iPhone updates and bam! now you have a self driving vehicle. Let's say Tesla charges $2k a year for a self driving vehicle that can also function as an autonomous uber driver which will help you pay down your vehicle or self driving subscription service. That's like selling two iPhone pros per every customer every year. And customers on their robotaxi network will also have to share 20% profits with Tesla. Think about this. The highest cost of ride hailing are for hourly wages. If no human is required to drive that vehicle, the cost of the ride hailing service will become insanely cheap. So cheap to the point that many people who live in cities will feel like they no longer need to own a vehicle and just call a robo taxi. People already do this in large cities! As this process accelerates, vehicles that don't have autonomy solved will lose market share dramatically every year. People who want cars will mainly want to buy a vehicle with an autonomous option, and people who don't care about owning a car will use robo taxis. If Tesla solves autonomy 4-5 years ahead of competitors, the entire auto industry will be disrupted by Tesla just like how the iPhone ended Blackberry and Nokia's dominance.
   
2. Vehicle Manufacturing - Tesla is an innovator when it comes to vehicle manufacturing technology, specifically robotics. Along with their insane factory automation process, they also have giga casters that mold car pieces quickly and efficiently that no other manufacturers have, and giant automated paint shops. This cuts down massively on labor and allows for quicker production while keeping margins high. Due to innovative technologies like these, it is estimated that Tesla's Shanghai Model 3 vehicles net around 30% profit margins, even after they've recently slashed their prices by 8%. Tesla recently slashed their Model Y price by 30% but still boast an astonishing 29% profit margin which is approximately 3 times the industry average. So even if robotaxi doesn't work out, they are still an industry leader by a large stretch in terms of profit margins. These margins will only increase after Giga Berlin is operational due to no longer having to ship vehicles across the Pacific to European customers.
   
3. Vertical Integration - Tesla is well known for its vertical integration. This is mainly due to having supply chain issues in the early days, but what this has enabled is agile production capability and larger profit margins. Due to this capability, Tesla improves components of their vehicles on the fly instead of the annual model release the traditional industry uses. Also, they don't have to share profits with suppliers or worry about constraints, delivery delays, or slow progress on contracts.
   
4. No Advertising & Dealerships - Elon Musk is a walking billboard. The media literally gives Tesla free advertisement every day. As production increases, Tesla might have to start advertising in the future. But for now it seems like Teslas are selling themselves. Tesla has literally sold 100% of the vehicles they've ever produced, and they have never advertised any of their vehicles. Also, they do not have to share profits with dealerships with direct-to-consumer sales. If their market dominance and technology superiority continues, it is bound to stay the industry leader just like apple did with its iPhones. And if they solve autonomy first which they seem on track to do so, what's more to say?
   
5. Regulatory Credits AKA Carbon Credits - This is one that TSLAQs love to bring up when it comes to Tesla profits. You see, a handful of US States enacted a law that requires manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in their state which will earn them ZEV credits. If not, they will either have to pay a massive penalty fine, or buy ZEV credits from vehicle manufacturers who have plenty to spare. And Tesla has an overflow of ZEV credits laying around. So Tesla is literally getting paid by other vehicle manufacturers to build their vehicles. TSLAQs (incorrectly) state that the only reason Tesla makes a profit is because of regulatory credits. However, Tesla's ZEV credits only make up around 5% of their revenue (page 4, row 3) and it is slowly falling. No serious vehicle manufacturer will likely produce ICE vehicles in the year 2030 so ZEV credits fazing out is to be expected. Tesla vehicles are massively profitable as mentioned in bullet #2 even without the ZEV credits.
   

 
So we went over the main revenue streams of Tesla. And if all works out well, it seems likely that Tesla has a good chance of 'winning' if they maintain their market leadership. However, the competition is coming, right? We have our favorite EV players such as Nio, XPeng, Li, Rivian, BYD etc. Also the traditional ICE manufacturers VolksWagen has their ID.4, Ford has thier Mustang Mach-E, Audi has thier etron, Porche has their Tycan, and GM has the Chevy Bolt and 30 EVs planned for the future. It seems inevitable that these industry giants with their massive resources will overtake Tesla. Or will they?
 
 

Why the Competition is NOT Coming (Tesla's Moats):

 

1. Difficulties of creating an EV vs. Mass Production: Creating a shell of an EV or a prototype is extremely easy. If anything, Nikola has showed this to be true. Rivian seems to be having the same issue Tesla had when starting up where they had to constantly push back release dates due to how difficult it is to engineer and manufacture an EV. So designing a prototype is easy. Manufacturing an EV is another thing. But mass production is a whole different beast. It took Tesla well over 16 years to perfect their technology and mass produce their model 3 despite having the best engineers in the world working for them. Ever wonder why every single vehicle manufacturer has constantly been pushing back their EV production timelines? It's because EVs are difficult. Also to note is that no vehicle manufacturer other than Tesla has been able to achieve mass production in EVs. And until then, Tesla has no competition in the near horizon.
   
2. Supercharger network: Tesla has the largest charging network in the world by orders of magnitude and they will continue to grow. VW is a low trailing second in the market due to penalties in their dieselgate scandel and as a lucky maneuver, decided to build their electrify-america charging network. BTW, due to sunk costs, VW will likely be the only traditional ICE manufacturer that stands a chance of survival in the long run. Tesla owners barely get range anxiety like they used to back in the day. This is because it is easy to find a charging station even if they are going on a long trip with their map integration. However, you cannot say the same for the other EVs.
   
3. Lidar vs. Camera: Tesla's vehicles notoriously does not use lidar technology. Instead, they almost only rely on vision (cameras). There are three main reasons for this. (I.) Cameras are extremely cheap. Lidar is not. One of Waymo's vehicles are estimated to have cost over $250k back in a 2017 estimate. Although in recent years Waymo seems to have developed lidar hardware that costs 90% less at $7.5k, it is still ridiculously expensive compared to cameras without adding much value. Here is Elon Musk's explanation, massively paraphrased: "Cameras augmented with AI can do almost all the things that lidar does chiefly depth sensing. Human vision does not require a separate depth sensor, and the entire driving infrastructure is built with human vision in mind. Lidar is a fools errand." Instead, Tesla augments its self driving technology with radar and maps. (II.) Lidar technology is usually augmented with something called HD maps. This is extreme detailed mapping (to the centimeter level) that helps lidar depth sensors with navigation. However, the issue with HD maps is that the file sizes are obviously large. And when detailed maps need to be updated due to construction or whatever which happens everywhere, every day, an OTA update needs to be sent out. And how do you update a fleet of all your vehicles when nationwide full coverage of 5G isn't a thing? So vehicles like Waymos are extremely good at driving within their geo-fenced locations, until they leave the area. And then they are absolute crap at it. OTOH, vision-based self driving vehicles are initially bad at the task until they have sufficient data and then they can drive well in almost every situation even without it being connected to the network. (III.) Vision-focused self driving AI can be augmented with additional sensors such as radalidar afterwards, but the inverse does not work. To put it short, if your lidar sensors disagree on the information they see at the moment, its entire system cannot function.
   
4. Technological Dominance: Tesla's vertical integration and engineering produced innovative solutions such as the octovalve, heat pump, leadership in battery and vehicle efficiency, custom designed AI chips and an AI supercomputer server (Tesla Dojo) specifically made for autonomous driving advancement. No other company can come close to what Tesla is currently doing.
   
5. Misdirected Competition: Remember how we talked about ZEV credits? Well most ICE vehicle manufacturers only sell their vehicles in ZEV mandated states and nowhere else. They literally lose money when they sell their vehicles, or have to massively hike up their prices to make a profit even with tax credits, unlike Teslas. For this reason, they only make enough vehicles to make up for their ZEV credits. Naturally, one can assume the limits of effort gone into such vehicles. Now, let's talk about the EV start ups. I've already mentioned the massive growing pains they will have to reach mass production. However, the Chinese EV startups have one thing to their advantage - massive 5G infrastructure within China which will undoubtedly benefit automation, especially in the case of HD maps. However, this doesn't apply outside of China. To add to this, they do not produce in-house custom AI chipsets which is a massive hinderance in processing data. Tesla did this with Nvidia for a while and ultimately decided that they had to design their own chips because of the lackluster performance.
   
6. OTA Software Updates - A minor point, but Tesla has been designing their own software for years now. Well known to the public, Teslas update very frequently and with each update gets slightly better UI and performance. Yes - a software update allows Teslas to get better efficiency out of their vehicles. One can argue that any auto manufacturer can implement OTA software updates, but Tesla is leagues ahead at the moment with top notch software developers.
   
7. Talent Pool: Guess what the #1 company engineers want to work for is? That's right. Tesla. #2 is SpaceX. Try all they want, but the best engineers aren't going to want to work with Ford or GM.
   
8. "The Competition": I already mentioned the half-assedness of traditional ICE vehicle manufacturers but I wanted to bring up another point. One thing that traditional ICE manufacturers have weighing them down are their employees. Their ICE engineers don't translate well into a totally different EV drivetrain. There are sunk costs (equipment etc) that deal with ICE manufacturing processes. Also, Ford, GM, and VW all have unions, pension funds, and stockholders. What do you think their reaction will be when they decide to ditch the currently-profitable-but-soon-to-be-shrinking ICE vehicle component and transition into resource intensive EVs? That's right. They won't like it. The only solution is to half-ass it and slowly transition into EVs while trying to keep afloat their ICE vehicle component. With massive product line diversification and lack of focus, this is not going to be an easy transition. VW CEO Herbert Diess famously stated that "My goal for the future is clear: leading the Group into a sustainable and successful future. The global transformation in the industry will take roughly ten years, with or without Volkswagen." and tried to convince board members basically stating that VW will need to transition into EVs within 10 years or go bankrupt. Ultimately, Diess wasn't successful in achieving full cooperation of the board and had to compromise in his goals to a more gradual transition. The competition is NOT coming. Oh, and as for Waymo and Uber? Well Uber recently sold off their self-driving startup, and Waymo sunk a jaw dropping $3.5 billion for their operation. LOL. They are paying drivers to monitor their expensive "autonomous vehicles" while Tesla gets this done while making a profit. As of 2020, Waymo still only has 600 vehicles and has never left the bounds of Pheonix, AZ.
   

 
OK. So I'm sure I've missed some points but I think this paints a decent picture on why Tesla is considered the one and only market leader at the moment. Now let's go into...
 
 

Tesla's Disruptive Potentials:

 

1. The $25,000 EV: In Tesla's battery day announcement, Tesla projected that their battery technology will enable them to build a $25k vehicle in the future. According to projections using Wright's law, this seems to be plausible. Most think this will happen around 2023-4. Think of the disruption this will bring. EVs are well known for having lower maintenance cost vs. ICE vehicles due to not having as many moving parts. The true cost of ownership for a $25k vehicle will be vastly superior to a $20k ICE vehicle. Once this happens, ICE vehicle demand will fall through the roof. The only ICE vehicles being sold at high volume will be used vehicles. What happens to the traditional ICE manufacturers then? Tesla vehicles are already perceived to hold their value much better than other brands because of the overall feature it comes with.
   
2. Tesla Auto Insurance: Tesla collects massive amounts of data. They can easily profile their customers' driving patterns, check if they have self driving enabled, the route they drive etc. Currently Tesla vehicles are insured at a much higher premium vs. economic ICE vehicles. Once Tesla goes fully into the insurance business, traditional insurance companies will not be able to compete with them on price or margins. This is because the insurance business is based upon data on the customer and projections.
   
3. Solar City - Tesla's other business deals with solar panels, Tesla power walls, and their Autobidder software which sells the electricity that you generated back to the grid. Tesla currently offers the lowest solar panel price in the U.S. and moreover, takes 20% of the revenue generated from their autobidder software. Renewable energy is poised to grow. More than 50% annually is the current projection. And Tesla seems to be one of the industry leaders in this market as well.
   

 
 

Risks:

1. Failing autonomous driving: definitely a major risk as the current stock price is largely betting on this single technology to materialize. However, their current progress and the rate of improvement after rewriting their autopilot code seems promising.
   
2. Failing mass battery production (battery supply issues): Although Tesla is the largest producer of batteries in the world, they will need to produce more if they want to keep up with the current pace of expansion. This will be a major bottleneck for Tesla if they cannot solve this issue. As a solution, Tesla has reduced their reliance on copper and are said to be producing batteries with little to no copper. We shall see how this pans out.
   
3. Tesla is infamous for its poor Quality Control on their vehicles and slow/poor Customer Service. We shall see if time solves this issue.
   
4. Lack of Tax Incentives: Tesla's vehicles no longer provide Federal tax incentives to U.S. customers. However, they seem to be doing fine with over 80% EV marketshare in the U.S. alone. They're stealing market share from BMW, VW, Acura... you name it.
   
5. Elon Musk Death: Elon Musk has been able to achieve amazing engineering feats. If he dies, I'm sure a lot of the company's potential will go with it.
   

 
 

Alternative Battery Technology:

 

1. Solid State Battery - Quantumscape which is currently the leader in this sector has plans to enter mass production by 2024. We shall see if their battery technology turns out to be as efficient as Tesla's. If QS's SS batteries turn out to be superior to Tesla's, they might have to start purchasing from them.
   
2. Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) Battery - Likely not a good use for vehicles. Very low efficiency and wasteful vs lithium-ion batteries. Currently no infrastructure for HFC in place. Might be useful for freight shipping. Elon Musk famously stated that HFC's are "Fool Cells"
   

 
 

Tesla Future Products Lines:

1. Cybertruck: Insane profit margins, amazing performance. estimated production end of 2021 or 2022
   
2. Semi Truck: estimated production 2022 or later
   
3. Model S Refresh: Insane specs. Likely release is 2021
   
4. 2020 Roadster: Insane specs but surprise! The "2020 Roadster" renewal never happened and most are projecting 2022 or later
   
5. $25k EV: 'nuff said
   

 

TSLA Analysis:

 
TSLA Institutional Ownership: 62.85%
TSLA Insider Ownership: 5.21%
TSLA Fanboy Ownership: estimated 5%+
So there is a stable 70%+ of ownership that will not/cannot sell this stock, unlike PLTR which has only 12% institutional ownership and 63% insider ownership. This is the reason why I think the stock won't drop tremendously even when it tanks. There are plenty of people who are willing to snatch up more shares at a discount.
 
 
Why did TSLA shoot up so quickly in 2020: This is my personal opinion, but TSLA fans are known for doing deep research into the company. In the early days this was in forums such as the Tesla Motors Club where they shared their own research on revenue, projections, and potentials. Now we have YouTube and information dissemination has gotten easier. Interest in investing has skyrocketed in 2020. Stock market trading GLOBALLY has gotten easier via smartphone with apps such as Robinhood and the prosperity of the American stock market has no doubt attracted global retail investors. For years, Tesla's stock has been pushed down by FUD analysts. Paid by big oil and traditional ICE manufacturers? Or really that dumb not to do any DD and spread completely false information on a company that you are massively shorting. We might never find out. Retailers have caught onto Tesla's potential ahead of analysts this time. And as in Morgan Stanley and RBC's case, analysts have just been catching up on the future potential of Tesla to not make a further fool of themselves.
 
 
Future scenarios and Personal Opinion: Currently, Tesla holds over 18% of the global EV marketshare. As more EV players come into space, it might seem like Tesla is in danger of losing marketshare. Not everyone wants a Tesla and that is understandable. But as the overall pie is growing, Tesla, with their 50% YoY production increase plans (which is exponential growth), will likely remain a market leader sustaining their current 18% market share even in 2030 just like how the iPhone did. This is, of course, if they can keep up their growth.
 
Even if TSLA fails to develop their robo-taxi network technology, their full self driving subscription seems highly likely to materialize at the current pace albeit a lower revenue model.
 
Ultimately, do I think the current stock price is a bubble? Fuck yes I do, maybe by up to 20%. I'm not buying any more TSLA shares anywhere near this price. My FOMO was back when the stock price was $415 after doing my DD and this was with the intention to buy more shares even if the stock bottomed out. Well, it never bottomed because the S&P inclusion was announced shortly after I purchased it.
 
But if you ask my personal opinion, you gotta be a "buy high sell low" type top level autist if you're looking for short term gains and purchasing at this level. I'm looking at long term, slow moving, dead ass boring, Bitcoin HODLing, Warren Buffet style "time in market beats timing the market" boomer gains here. My next purchase will be whenever the stock price, if ever, bottoms out. However, just because I think TSLA is overpriced doesn't mean that I'm shorting this stock either.
 
Amazon was notoriously non-profitable or barely profitable until 2015 because they were reinvesting their profits into expansion. That is what Tesla is doing right now. Remember all the analysts who continuously warned investors for over a decade to stay away from AMZN because they are unprofitable? Well, I don't see any sane analysts parroting that narrative anymore. And then its stock price shot to the moon after they enabled profit mode. It's stock price nearly doubled due to the pandemic and I'm still not planning on shorting this stock even though the pandemic will likely go away in less than a year.
 
I don't know how TSLA will do in the short term. Nonetheless, I do believe that Tesla has the best chance among any auto maker out there to reach a $2-10+ trillion valuation within 10 years. So I'm just going to lean back and enjoy the show.
 
 
TL;DR: Tesla HAS NO COMPETITION. This is as if android wasn't developed until 4 years after the iPhone was released. Do NOT short or buy puts on TSLA. Although the current run seems absolutely insane, there is some substance to hold it up and possibly keep shooting up higher
 
 
Positions: TSLA shares @ $415 and a bunch more with an average price of $518. No calls because my wife's boyfriend did not permit.
 
 

Back of the Napkin Calculations

Warning: These are literally back of the napkin, pure crack fantasy calculations based on four factors:

1. Tesla will be able to increase production by 50% YoY until 2030 without fall in demand or issues scaling. As a side note, Toyota sells 10.5 million vehicles in a year so only time will tell if Tesla is able to sell 20 million vehicles a year.
   
2. ZEV credits will gradually diminish due to manufacturers switching to EVs.
   
3. Tesla will solve level 3 autonomy by 2022 and will charge customers $1k/yr. Tesla will have level 5 autonomy by 2026 and launch its robotaxi network by 2027 which it will then charge customers $2k/yr.
   
4. The robotaxi revenue is from the 20% profit sharing Tesla plans to do, but as far as the numbers go, I straight up pulled it out of my ass while referencing Uber's revenue and fudging numbers.
   

 

Year	Vehicles Produced	Vehicle Sales Revenue	ZEV Credits	Full Self Driving Revenue	Robotaxi Revenue	Total Revenue (Vehicle Related)	Notes
2019	367k	20.2 B	0.6 B	0.36 B (est)		21.6 B (est)	FSD early access (cost $8k, 1 time fee)
2020	500k	23.9 B (est)	1.5 B (est)	0.6 B (est)		26 B (est)	FSD early access (cost $10k, 1 time fee)
2021	750k	35.8 B	1.3 B	0.9 B (est)		38 B (est)	FSD at Level 2.5
2022	1.1 mil	53.7 B	1 B	1 B+		55.7 B	FSD at Level 3 (FSD subscription service - lower pricing model @ $1k/y)
2023	1.7 mil	80.6 B	0.7 B	2.7 B+		84 B
2024	2.5 mil	120 B	0.4 B	5.2 B+		125.6 B	FSD at Level 4
2025	3.8 mil	181 B	0.1 B	9 B+		190.1 B
2026	5.7 mil	272 B	-	13.7 B+		285.7 B	FSD at Level 5
2027	8.5 mil	408 B	-	30 B+	1 B	439 B	Robotaxi Launch (FSD subscription service @ 2k/y)
2028	12.8 mil	612 B	-	55 B+	5 B	672 B
2029	19 mil	918 B	-	93 B+	13 B	1 T
2030	20 mil	1 T	-	130 B+	20 B+	1.1 T

 
As you can see, I omitted R&D expenses, operating expenses etc., and haven't even attempted to calculate their net profit or factor in that Tesla's revenue might drop due to introducing cheaper variants. But this back of the napkin, crack infused revenue model shows that Tesla's potential can be gigantic. This is even without its other businesses like Solar City or Tesla insurance etc. Please... don't reference this anywhere because it is dumb math and I likely made some huge errors lol.
 
 
See also:

• ARK Invest's TSLA 2024 Price Target of $7,000 ($1500 post split) written back in Jan 2020.
  
• Ark Invest was widely mocked when they stated that their 2022 price target was $700-$4,000 ($140-$800 post split) back in 2018 after Elon Musk sent out his now infamous "funding secured" tweet. Tesla's stock was around $60 ($300 pre split) at the time.
  

Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement Balances: Traditional IRA $72k, Pre-Tax 403b $34k, total of $106k
Equity: Approximately $25k based on comp sales in my area, but I haven’t had my condo appraised since I purchased it a few years ago. Planning on looking into this to try to remove PMI later this year.
Savings account balance: $3800
Investment account balance: $6300
Checking account balance: $600 (most extra funds go into debt repayment or savings)
Vehicle Value: $15k
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): I’m no longer carrying any credit card debt, I pay any balances off each month
Student loan debt: $99k for undergrad + masters, I work for a non-profit employer and I am planning on Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF). I’m 11 months away from forgiveness based on my work history.
Mortgage Balance: $102k
Car note: $14300 for a 2017 Honda HR-V (purchased used in 2020)
Debt Consolidation Loan: $16500 at 8.49%. I’ve been carrying this debt for way too long…finally decided to stop messing around with credit cards except for a rewards card. This is a 36 month note but I will pay it off much faster (see expenses section).
Consumer Debt: I have a $2100 Care Credit balance for surgery for my dog, which has 0% financing that ends in July 2021.
Net Worth: around $25k
Notes/Goals: In about 2-3 years I plan on renting out my condo and upgrading to a home with a garage and some outdoor space. I’m hoping that I’ll be able to get a few hundred dollars of income per month from renting out my unit, which I plan on putting into savings. I’ve never been a landlord, but I will probably hire a management company to deal with vetting renters and collecting rent/doing repairs. I’d also like to move somewhere warm…I hate winter. Not sure if I can do that with my current employer, we’re 100% remote now but that’s not permanent. I’m going to advocate for that option though, otherwise I’ll have to look for a 100% remote job in my field after my student loans get forgiven.
My aim is to have all unsecured debt completely paid off by early 2022. I could probably pay it off faster at the expense of saving any money or reducing my lifestyle, but I think I will have better success with moderation. After that’s all paid off, I plan on saving what I was using for debt to fund a down payment for a new home.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression:
Honestly, my career was a bit chaotic in my late 20s/early 30s. I work in the IT field - I started out in IT support after getting my masters degree, and have progressed into more programming/engineering work. From 2014-2015 I tried out some other career paths that didn’t work out and just went back to IT because it pays well and I’m good at it. I am finally working for an organization that I like and have a role that I mostly enjoy.
2009-2014: $52k-$60k, IT support with a government agency. My role never changed, but I did get increases due to pay schedules.
2016-2018: $50k-62k, various IT positions at a tech startup, starting with desktop support
2018-present: $80k-$100k, IT work at a non-profit, most recent promotion was in November 2020
Monthly take home
$5200, paid once per month. I put 10% of my income pre-tax into my 403b since my employer matches that 10%. Unfortunately the match was put on hold due to COVID, but will start again with my January paycheck. It’s going to be nice seeing $20k going into my retirement this year.
I contribute $216/month into my HSA, since I have a HDHP. I get a match of up to $1000/year in my HSA from my employer, so I get the max pre-tax contribution of $3600. I pay approximately $110/month in premiums for health, dental, and vision combined.
I pay a long-term disability insurance premium post-tax of $10.25/month to increase my benefit amount to 70% of my salary until I hit retirement age, should I become disabled. I feel like this is really important as a single person, to make sure I have funds to cover my care.
Side Jobs/Other Income I will occasionally sell items on eBay or Poshmark. I run all online shopping/curbside pickup through Rakuten and usually get about $150/year in rebates for that. Credit card cash back is usually about $30/month. I get about $200/year in interest from my credit union. My dad gives me ~$500 for Christmas every year.
Section Three
Monthly Expenses
Mortgage + Taxes/Insurance + HOA: $1075, this includes parking, heat, water, trash, and cooking gas
Retirement contribution: I only do pre-tax contributions which are accounted for above
Healthcare: I pay all expenses with my pre-tax HSA funds. I’ve never had to pay more than what I have saved in my HSA, which is a blessing.
Savings contribution: I don’t save a set amount, right now I’m prioritizing debt payoff
Utilities: $71 electric, $66 internet
Cellphone: $156, this is for my phone + plan and another family member’s plan (their phone is paid off).
Subscriptions: $11 Spotify, $10 Kindle Unlimited, $15 Netflix, $13 Hulu, $8 for AppleCare and $3 for iCloud storage. AppleCare came in handy when I cracked my phone screen last year.
Credit Card Yearly fees: $95 annually. I have the Chase Sapphire Preferred for the cash back and travel benefits
Debt Consolidation Loan: $521, I pay $1021 (extra $500/mo) to get it paid off faster.
Student Loans: $0 due to the CARES Act. I estimate this will be $400/month when the forbearance period is over.
Car Payment: $240
Car Insurance: $96
Gas/Ubers/City Street Parking/Tolls: $75, I’m WFH so I’m only driving for errands or the occasional socially distanced get-together with friends. Not sure I even spend this much, but I occasionally have to reload my tollway iPass or my Chicago parking meter app, which both reload in $20 increments.
Groceries & Household Needs: $350 for food and household/cleaning supplies, includes tip/fees for grocery delivery
Dog Expenses: $400/mo because of the CareCredit balance for recent surgeries & related care. Normally I pay around $50/month for grooming and food/treats (she’s a small dog).
Personal Care: $260-ish (monthly average) for hair color, haircuts, skincare and makeup. I get haircuts every 12 weeks, hair color every 6 weeks, and Dysport injections every 4 months or so.
Gym/Fitness: $15 for Peloton app - I own a spin bike that I use 5x/week, plus I have some strength equipment at home.
Paid Hobbies: $50 - budget for new Switch games, iPad apps, books that aren’t available on Kindle Unlimited, etc. Not sure I actually spend this each month but it’s built into my budget.
Yearly Expenses
Amazon Prime: $119
Vehicle City Sticker: $82
Vehicle Registration: $151
Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have about money? Did your parent/guardian(s) educate you about finances?
I got an allowance but there was no discussion of savings or smart spending. My dad was very stingy with money, my mom liked to spend it.
Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If yes, how did you pay for it?
Yes, I was always expected to go to college. My parents divorced when I was 16 and they didn’t save any money for my tuition.
What was your first job and why did you get it?
I worked at a local restaurant as a server, so that I had money to spend for gas for my car and for fun with my friends. I stopped getting an allowance when I got this job.
Did you worry about money growing up?
A little bit, because when my parents divorced I sensed that my mom’s financial stability was not very stable, even though my dad was paying child support for my sister and I.
Do you worry about money now?
I’d say I’m somewhat vigilant about my money now. I lived paycheck to paycheck until my early 30s, because I never prioritized having savings and I spent more than I should have. I have more breathing room now, despite the debt that I carry. I’ll feel a lot better when it’s gone.
At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net?
I was basically on my own when I went to college at 18. I did work-study and took out student loans to pay for school, room, and board.
Do you or have you ever received passive or inherited income? If yes, please explain.
No
Other notes: I wear a mask in public places. Fair warning that this was a tough week for me personally. 2021 is already roughing me up!
Section Four: Diary
Day 1
7:30a - today is a holiday so I don’t have to work - but I forgot to turn off my alarm. I stay in bed until 8am before my dog starts bugging me to feed her. Since she just had dental surgery, I have to grind up her kibble and mix it with water, and give her meds wrapped in some turkey since that’s the only way she’ll take them. After she eats, we go outside for a walk. I decide I want to go get some iced coffee - I check my Dunkin Donuts app and see that I have a free coffee coupon to use. I put the dog in the car and while it warms up, I scrape all the ice off my windshield (gotta love Chicago winters). We drive to Dunkin and go through the drive-thru. I also get some egg wraps and a donut ($3.53).
9:15a - I do my weekly check of my bank accounts against my banking spreadsheet. I’m very paranoid about fraud (I had my identity stolen when I was in college), so I like to make sure everything looks good. I also have a rewards checking account that gives me 3.09% on my checking account balance when I hit a certain amount of spending on my Visa, and 12 debit card transactions per month. I’m about $250 short on the Visa, and 2 transactions short, but there’s a few weeks left. I remember that I was going to switch some of my autopay bills over to that Visa card just so I can hit the rewards tier, so I do that. I spent a bit checking my personal email, reading Reddit, and texting my sister, who is also off work today.
10:00a - I start my projects for the day - cleaning out my fridge/freezer, and taking out all the storage bins from under my bed and cleaning out what I don’t need to keep. I got a Roomba for Christmas and I really want to use it to clean under my bed, but the bins are preventing that. I will take what I keep down to my storage unit in the basement.
11:00a - A guy comes to pickup an old wingback chair that I put up for free on Craigslist. It was a hand-me-down, so I wouldn’t feel right charging for it. I was going to donate it but I live on the third floor and no one is doing furniture pickups right now. He leaves with it and I go back to cleaning & organizing.
12:00p - Decide I want some more bins/organizers for what’s left after purging what I don’t need. I go to Container Store online and after putting what I want into my cart and decide that instead of curbside pickup which will take a few days, I’m going to just go to the store and get what I need. Change into what I’ll end up wearing to workout later, and put a sweater on over it. Wash my face, put on SPF (I’m pale and it’s sunny out), tinted moisturizer, concealer, mascara, and eyebrow tint. Grab my wallet and a mask and head out.
12:15p - While driving, phone call with my ex. We have been attempting to repair our relationship after we broke up in the fall. He’s been acting distant lately, so I called him to find out wtf was going on. An hour and 10 minutes later, it feels like it’s over - again. I told him that I couldn’t wait for him to figure out what he wants, and said good-bye. I cry in the parking lot of The Container Store for about 10 minutes, then get myself together and go into the store. Unfortunately they don’t have the boot boxes I wanted, but I got everything else ($99.48). I notice that Trader Joe’s is next door so I get in line and buy a few items - butter chicken, mac n cheese, 3 bags of dried mango, soyaki sauce, bell peppers, spinach, and flowers for myself because I deserve it ($40.18). I eat an entire bag of dried mango while crying on the drive home. When I get home, I pull out all the stuff I got at the Container Store and do some organizing. Folding all my leggings Konmari-style is satisfying. I feel a little bit better.
4p - All of a sudden it’s 4pm. I feed the dog and take her outside for a quick walk. I don’t have a lot of energy so I sit on the couch to get some dog cuddles and scroll through social media a bit. Decide to be productive to distract myself - spend the next 2 hours doing random stuff: unboxing an Amazon delivery, moving stuff to storage, taking recycling out to the bin.
6p - Answer a bunch of Instagram DMs I’ve been ignoring. Go back and forth with a friend about her new job and commiserate over having imposter syndrome. Write in my journal. Debate buying another organizer on Amazon, this time for nail polish. Resist, and close the window. I decide to eat a protein bar, I’m not hungry but I need to eat something that isn’t carbs. My ex responds to my IG story. I ignore it.
7p - Convince myself to get on my spin bike and do a workout. I choose a 45 minute pop ride that I bookmarked to take at some point. It’s like God knew what I needed, the playlist was so fun. I definitely sing along to Destiny’s Child “Survivor” - and I feel much better. After the ride, I eat a bowl of Cheerios with skim milk, plus a greek yogurt cup. Take a shower, change into comfy clothes, and use a lot of dry shampoo as I just washed my hair yesterday and don’t want to deal with it again. I coax my dog into taking her second dose of meds with turkey.
9p - I look at my phone and my ex sent me two more messages on IG in response to my story. Men, ugh. I get cozy on the couch with the book I’m reading - We Were Liars by E. Lockhart. I finish it and add it to the list of books I’ve read in 2021. This is #5.
10:15p - Take my dog on her final trip outside. We get into bed and I scroll through TikTok until I start feeling sleepy, then lights out.
Daily Total:
Restaurants: $3.53
Groceries: $40.18
Household: $99.48
Day 2
7:45a - I had my alarm set for 8 but I’m up early. Cuddle with my dog for 10 minutes then get up. Make the bed, this is a newer habit of mine but it makes me feel like I’ve accomplished something first thing in the morning. Give the dog her meds and while she’s eating, I put on some leggings and a sweater. I walk her around the block and after I come back inside, I wash my face, moisturize, and put on some makeup. I am trying out some new concealer and eye shadow, plus I finally got an eyelash curler (lol). I’m trying to make more of an effort to feel like a human in the mornings so it’s easier to transition back to the office when I have to go back. I straighten parts of my hair that look weird, and add some more dry shampoo. Make some coffee and add collagen protein powder and some cream. Sit down at my desk with a Greek yogurt cup and start reading through work emails and addressing my calendar.
9a - Video call with IT security team and the VP of my department
10a - Scroll through IG while making another cup of coffee. Find out that the shampoo I recently bought is part of a class action lawsuit for hair loss…great. Good thing it’s not open, and I can return it to Ulta and get something else. Go back to my desk and check ticket status and review some project documentation.
11a - Make some food - spinach, egg + egg whites, bagel with cream cheese - then back to work things. I get a new project that I was recommended for by the head of IT, so that’s cool.
11:30a - Quick video call to discuss a project, but it could have been an email. Go back to regular work things.
1230p - Take a break from work to do a live 30 minute Peloton class. Fun and feels good to move! Quick shower and clothing change, microwave the mac n cheese I bought on Monday, and go back to work.
2p - Call with my team, I leave my video off for this one. Review/work some assigned tickets and more emails. Work is kind of light right now. I should look ahead for the week but instead I get on YouTube and watch some videos. I can tell my anxiety is high because I get really unfocused.
4p - I have an application software upgrade I need to monitor - luckily this is kicked off by the vendor and I just need to make sure nothing breaks on our side. I join a conference call just so I’m connected to their technical team, but there isn’t much for me to do. I give the dog her evening meal and then take her outside. Come back in and spend some time surfing the internet while the software upgrades. Watch the COVID memorial service on the National Mall and can’t believe it’s taken this long to do one.
5p - Open a bag of dried mango, eat while checking upgrade status. Discuss some issues with the vendor technical contact, spend the next 2 hours fixing issues and completing upgrades. I email stakeholders to confirm that the upgrades are completed.
7p - Turn off work computer for the night. I setup my Roomba and put it on the dock to charge. I’ve named her Harriet. I decide I should eat something other than dried mango for dinner and put some chicken nuggets in the air fryer. I take some chicken out of the freezer and put in the fridge to thaw for tomorrow’s dinner. I should at least try to eat healthy…
730p - Harriet says she’s charged enough so I run the first cleaning job. She’s noisy but I am very excited about this. I hate cleaning so much. Before now I didn’t realize how many cords I had on the floor. She finishes running after an hour and there’s so much dirt and dust in the trap. Best gift ever.
830p - Give dog her meds. Scroll through IG, get bored, decide to watch a movie. I pick A Star Is Born because I need a good cry before I go to bed, right?
10:30p - Walk the dog, do my nighttime routine, and get in bed. Try to fall asleep but I’m struggling due to anxiety. Decide to scroll through TikTok for a while as that usually makes me sleepy. My plan works and I fall asleep around 11.
Daily total: $0
Day 3
730a - Alarm goes off but I’m already awake. Didn’t sleep well due to being woken up at 2:30am by a snow blower outside my window? That couldn’t have waited a few hours? I snuggle with my dog for 20 minutes and then get up and make the bed. Give pup her food, walk her quickly since it is colder than normal today. I make some coffee and I also take care of all the dirty dishes in my sink and put them in the dishwasher. Change clothes and fix my hair. I leave my glasses on today but still put one some eyebrow tint and concealer. Glasses can only hide so much.
8:30a - Check the news because it’s Inauguration Day and find out that the federal student loan pause will be extended until September 30th! I immediately open up my financial spreadsheet and make some updates to plan ahead. This is going to save me approximately $3000 in loan payments since these months still count towards my PSLF forgiveness. This also means I should defer filing my federal taxes until the October deadline because my income-based repayment certification date gets pushed back several months, and I don’t need my last 4 payments to be higher than they have to.
8:45a - Check work email, review the ticket queue I need to work on today, start tackling those.
1030a - Grab a Greek yogurt cup, spill some on my living room rug, my dog cleans it up. Whoops. I use a bit of carpet cleaner but there’s no stain, phew.
11a - Get a little bit emotional about the Inauguration. Kind of a relief overall.
12p - Start of 4 back-to-back calls that will end at 4pm. I grab a bagel & cream cheese to eat during the noon call, since it’s a lunch & learn. They also give us a $30 UberEats voucher that expires at midnight tonight, so I guess I’m ordering dinner tonight!
4p - Finish up my last meeting, my boss still wants to chat so I need to stay online a bit longer. I feed the dog and take her outside real quick while my boss is in another call. I order a poke bowl and a Fiji water from Uber Eats with my voucher, all I need to pay for is the tip for the driver ($5). Read the emails that piled up while I was in meetings, also check my personal email as well.
445p - Food gets delivered - it’s a really good bowl. My boss calls me and we end up discussing a variety of things for 2 hours. I’m really excited about my career right now.
7p - I write in my journal for a bit. Text back and forth with my sister, we both are feeling pretty emotionally exhausted. I wish she didn’t live so far away. Spend way too long trying to find something to watch on Netflix. I end up watching stand-up comedy - Daniel Sloss “Jigsaw” which I’ve seen before but it hits different tonight.
930p - I give the pup her meds. Do my nighttime routine and crawl into bed because I’m feeling emotionally exhausted. Scroll through social media in bed for a bit. Do a sleep meditation for 10 minutes, then lights out.
Daily total:
Restaurants: $5
Day 4
7a - Alarm goes off, change into workout clothes and walk the dog. I do two 15 minute Peloton workouts back to back. I feed the dog and give her meds, and jump in the shower. I do hair and makeup today because I have a presentation to do. Make some coffee and a bagel with cream cheese.
9:30a - Starting my morning of meetings/presentations. Already looking forward to noon when I can disconnect from video calls.
12p - Make some veggie pasta and chicken nuggets for lunch. Catch up on emails and review my to-do list - it feels like I have way too much to do, trying not to stress. I decide that I want to get outside this weekend and go hiking in Wisconsin. I text my mom and ask if she can stop by my place on Saturday to walk the dog mid-day and she says yes. I order some fleece-lined leggings, wool socks, and a puffer jacket from Target for the hiking trip - the only cold weather stuff I have is not hiking-friendly ($96.19).
1p - Two back-to-back meetings, but these aren’t video calls, thankfully. Work on some tickets and write out my ever-expanding to-do list.
4p - Feed the dog and take her outside. I get in my car to go do curbside pickup for the clothes I ordered earlier. Drive home and decide I should find all my gear for the trip because I’m not entirely sure where I put my hiking shoes.
6p - Make dinner - chicken teriyaki over ramen noodles. I have leftovers, so I will eat that for lunch tomorrow.
630p - Half-heartedly watch a few episodes of House while also scrolling through social media. I kinda fall asleep on the couch at some point.
10p - Walk the dog very quickly, it’s freezing out. Go to bed and crash, I think my emotional exhaustion is catching up with me.
Daily total:
Clothing: $96.19
Day 5
7:30a - Alarm goes off. I lay in bed for 30 minutes because I’m still tired. Change into work-appropriate clothing. Feed the dog, walk. It is FREEZING. I make some coffee and grab a Greek yogurt. Sit down and start reading through emails and chatting with co-workers via Teams.
10a - Two calls back to back
1130a - Lunch - bagel and cream cheese, two eggs
12p - Charging through my to-do list
3p - Last call of the day, ends up being a full hour…gross. Turn my computer off at 4p. Feed and walk the dog. I eat my leftover stir fry from last night for dinner.
530p - A friend calls and we chat for about an hour. We make tentative plans to go skiing as a day trip sometime next month. I’m stoked because I’ve never been skiing and some of the cold weather clothes I bought for this hike would be useful for that too.
630p - Watch Ever After while making sure I’m ready for my impromptu hiking trip for tomorrow. Find out I need to have a park pass for my car to use the state parks in Wisconsin. Buy an annual pass for 2021 ($38) because that’s the only thing you can buy online and it looks like all the park stations are closed due to COVID so I can’t buy a day pass. I’m going to use this as an excuse to go hiking more often.
9p - I’m leaving early tomorrow, so I feed/walk the dog and do my nighttime routine, head to bed.
Daily Totals:
Hobbies: $38
Day 6
6a - alarm goes off - it’s hiking day! I feed/walk the dog, and then get fully dressed. I grab my hiking shoes, a water bottle, a small backpack, and a Nutri-grain bar, and head out.
730a - I get off the interstate in Wisconsin and go through a Dunkin’ Donuts drive-thru. I get a small coffee and a bagel & egg sandwich ($5.89). Eat while driving the rest of the way to the state park.
845a - find a place to park by the trailhead and make sure my park pass receipt is showing on my dashboard. I discover there’s more snow than I thought there was on the trails, so I decide to just hike in my Ugg snow boots instead of the hiking shoes, since the snow boots go higher on my leg and are pretty comfortable. Grab my pack and start the hike! It’s really pretty with the snow, and the cold isn’t too bad. I’m glad I have my boots on. I do a 7 mile trail loop and it takes me about 3 hours.
12p - Drive home. I stop at a gas station to use the restroom and fill up my gas tank, since gas is much cheaper in Wisconsin than it is in Illinois ($23.44).
230p - Make it home. I take a long shower and then just sorta lay on the couch for a while with my dog - I’m tired from the hike and the driving. I take an accidental nap.
5p - Wake up because I heard my dog whining for food. Feed and walk her, then decide to make dinner. I have no motivation so I just throw a frozen pizza in the oven. It’s a medium size, so I eat the whole thing.
6p - Scroll through social media since I haven’t been on it at all today. Get cozy on the couch with a new book - How Will You Measure Your Life by Clayton Christensen.
9p - Walk the dog and decide I’m tired enough to just go to bed.
Daily Total:
Restaurants: $5.89
Gas: $23.44
Day 7
10a - Holy cow I slept late. Feels good to do that once in a while. Feed and walk the dog, then I make myself some coffee. Today I just add some milk to it. Check personal emails. I think about working out and decide that I’m better off just doing a stretch class from the Peloton app. I pick a 20 minute one and it was the right decision.
11a - Make breakfast - toast with peanut butter, scrambled egg with egg whites. Shower and start the multiple loads of laundry I need to do. Clean the kitchen and the bathroom - not a deep clean but all the surfaces. I straighten up the other rooms in my apartment as well.
1p - FaceTime with my sister. Today is the only day we both don’t work, so it’s ideal to catch up on Sundays.
3p - I’m hungry again but not enough for a meal. I eat an apple with sliced cheddar cheese. Continue with laundry and play fetch with my dog. I’m glad to see she has some energy back after her surgery.
4p - My ex calls me. Asks if we can meet up and talk. He invites me over for dinner, I say ok. We agree on 6pm. I freshen up my hair and do some makeup. Change clothes into leggings and a long sweater. Feed and walk the dog.
530p - Drive to my ex’s apartment. I listen to my upbeat Taylor Swift playlist on the way there. Spend the evening at his place, he orders dinner for us and I don’t offer to pay, LOL.
930p - I drive home. I text my ex that I made it home safely, since he asked me to. Walk the dog, and do my nighttime routine. Check my work calendar for tomorrow, realize that I have a previously scheduled eye doctor appointment in the morning that I forgot about. Good thing I checked! I go to bed since I want to workout in the morning before the appointment.
Daily Total: $0
Weekly Totals
Restaurants: $14.42
Groceries: $40.18
Household: $99.48
Clothing: $96.19
Gas: $23.44
Hobbies: $38
Reflections: This isn’t a normal week due to the impromptu hiking trip, but my spending wasn’t terrible. I’m really happy that I won’t be paying student loans for the next 9 months. This diary showed me that I may spend too much time on social media and that I should be eating more vegetables. I just really love carbs…haha. I will need to make good use of that state park pass, especially in the spring and fall when the weather is mild!

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is!
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This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

• High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

• Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
• Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

• Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
• Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
• Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
• New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

• Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
• Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

• High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
• Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
• Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
• Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
• Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

• There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
• For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

• Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
• Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
• This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

• Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
• Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
• I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

• Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
• Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
• Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

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https://preview.redd.it/9ft3iuw6zmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=44f5a24a035466bac6e9e72c70eb1edcadf5091d
Valuation

• Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
• Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/83j8aqdkzmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=f06ec34f6de10eeae049710dd59c494f6ef697c9

• Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
• Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
• The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

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https://preview.redd.it/1z2ap11mzmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=775ddc0c9d7e99412dbb4eb1fbbf8ed4645bc235
NB – assumed the following:

1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

• US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
• Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
• Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

• No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
• Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

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https://preview.redd.it/n8dzmapozmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e0e8bbd93f0c5c17920e7a5c5fad2559cc8bf0
Potentially misleading cost basis information

• A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
• As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
• Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

• Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
• No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
• Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
• So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more

If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw

I recently went on a research bender to find stuff college students can get for free. So far I've used the following discounts:

• $26 per month off auto insurance at Progressive
• 8% off cell phone bill at AT&T
• 6 months free Amazon Prime
• 2 months free Kindle Unlimited
• $3 per month off YouTube Premium
• Free Checking Account at USBank
• Free Microsoft Office 365
• Free unlimited storage from Google Drive via G-Suite
• Lots of other free software.

This is frugal so don't go buying stuff you don't need, but if you already pay for any of this stuff, keep your student status in mind. Following is a list of student discounts and other free stuff I poached from u/jacurtis :

Adobe Creative Cloud - Get access to every Adobe Creative Cloud application (there’s like 15+ of them) in the “Master Collection” for $19.99/mo instead of $55/mo. Then after you graduate the you can continue to save by paying $29.99/mo for as long as you keep it. If you just want Photoshop and Lightroom you can get the photographers bundle for $9.99/mo instead of the normal $19.99 price.
Amazon Prime Student - This was already mentioned so I’ll skim over it but it’s too good of deal to ignore because most people reading this are probably paying full price already. So you might as well convert your Prime membership to a student rate and save money every month!
Apple Music - You get Apple Music for $5/mo which is half off the normal price.
Apple Products - Go to the education link at the bottom of the Official Apple website to save on almost any Apple computer. I just saved $100 on one of the brand new Apple MacBook Pros that came out a few weeks ago with the new M1 chip.
Apple Pro Apps Bundle for Education - Get full versions of all of Apple’s pro apps in one bundle. You get Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro, Motion, Compressor, and MainStage. All of these apps are $199 for the whole bundle. That’s about $1,000 worth of software for $200. Best of all, these are eternal licenses. So you buy it once and can keep it after graduation.
The New York Times - Get access to the NYTimes for very cheap. The digital newspaper subscription is $4/mo instead of $15. BUT... for $6/mo you can get “All Access” which includes The Crossword and New York Times Cooking. This normally costs $25/mo!!!! I love getting the crossword for student pricing.
Github Student Developer Pack - Literally way too much free stuff to list here. Anyone interested in programming, technology, engineering, can get thousands of dollars in free stuff here. Go sign up for this pack which is maintained by GitHub but includes offers from 101 different vendors by my count (I might have miscounted +/- 2). Highlights include Free Pro account to GitHub, free pro account for Canva, several free domains, $50 in Twilio credits, waived transaction fees for Stripe, Free Premium Developer Interview training, Free MongoDB certification, $50 in digital ocean credits, free upgraded accounts to tons of developer services and a ton more.
JetBrains - Free Access to All Premium IDEs. This is another one for developers. But these IDEs are usually very expensive ($375 per year normally). It’s free while you’re a student. Here’s How to Get It
Logitech - Through Logitech’s website you can get 25% off anything! This includes normal stuff like mice, keyboards, and webcams. But it also means gaming goodies, or sim stuff like flight sticks or driving wheels.
Microsoft - Save 10% on the Microsoft Store. So any PC users out there can save some serious dough as a student.
SetApp Mac Apps - This one is obscure but insanely cool. SetApp is a collection of extremely high quality Mac Apps. This is everyday stuff. You have to look at the list to really see what all is included. But it’s well over a hundred apps. It’s normally $10 /mo and you get 50% off. It also includes a lot of premium apps for iPad and iPhone. So if you have a Mac, check out all the apps you can get
Spotify + Hulu + Showtime - This bundle is $5 a month and includes Spotify Premium (usually $10/mo), Hulu (normally $6 /mo), and Showtime (normally $9/mo). So you get all three for half the price of Spotify Premium alone. And let’s be honest, a lot of you are probably paying for Spotify Premium already at $10 a month. So you might as well save 50% on that and pick up free accounts for Hulu and Showtime as cherries on top.
A few others:
Car Insurance: almost every car insurance company offers discounts to full time students. Usually 10-25%. This could save you $10-$50 a month!
Cell Phones - Your mileage will vary on this one. But all the major phone carriers do offer discounts towards students. But in typical phone carrier fashion it’s inconsistent and unpredictable
Ski Passes: this will vary again depending on where you live but most ski resorts offer season passes for fractions of what they normally charge. I’m talking about $100-$200 a year instead of $800 - $1000. So if you ski you might as well cash in.

I posted a much more extensive list available specifically to WGU students on the wgu subreddit if anyone is curious.

Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement Balance: $35,000 in a SEP IRA through my employer. They match 2% if I contribute at least 4%. I currently contribute 8%.
$21,000 in my husband’s Roth IRA. He’s a PhD student and the university doesn’t let him contribute to a retirement account pre-tax, so we’ve been maxing a Roth for him each of the last few years. We haven’t yet put in the full amount for this year but have it set aside in our savings.
Savings account balance: About $42,000 spread across a couple of accounts.
Checking account balance: Around $4000.
Investments: About $15,000 in CDs which will be part of a down payment at some point.
About $20,000 in a mutual fund; my parents threw I think $1000 into this when I was very young and have just let it sit and grow since then. This will also probably go towards a down payment.
HSA: $1200. I was able to contribute to an HSA when I was on health insurance through my employer; I’m now on my husband’s health insurance because he has a great and inexpensive plan through the university, but I can’t contribute to this account anymore.
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): None, we pay off our credit cards in full each month.
Student loan debt (for what degree): None for me; I received a merit-based scholarship that covered one year of undergrad and my parents graciously covered the rest along with living expenses. My husband’s parents paid for his undergrad degree. Tuition is waived for his PhD program, so no debt from that.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I’ve worked at the same company since I graduated college (over 6 years now). I started in an entry-level role in 2014 with a $29,000 salary. After about a year, I got promoted to the role I’m in now and also received a raise to $36,000. In 2018, I asked for a raise and got bumped up to $43,000. I’ve also received a small cost of living raise every year, which brings me to where I am now at about $45,000. (All of these numbers are salary only, not including bonuses; I did receive significant bonuses every year, and the amounts have increased year-over-year--I just don’t remember how much I received each year.)
Main Job:
Me: Last year I made $62,000 pre-tax. As mentioned, my salary is about $45,000, and I expect to get in the neighborhood of $17k in bonuses this year, possibly more. I take home $2725/month after taxes and 8% retirement contribution.
Husband: He makes $29,000 pre-tax as a PhD student. He takes home $2081 per month after taxes and both of our health insurance (I don’t remember what the monthly premium is).
Side Gig:
I’ve picked up a side job this year helping students prepare their personal statements/essays for their college applications, and I expect to make between $4000-$5000 from that total for the year. The amount I make per month varies, and I have to estimate my own taxes, so I set aside money for that from each weekly paycheck.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent: $1115 (includes $25/month fee for having a cat). We have a 2 bed/1 bath apartment in the suburbs of a MCOL city, and heat and water are included in our rent.
Renter’s insurance: $21.25
Investment contribution: $500/month towards my husband’s Roth IRA
Donations: $478/month in recurring donations. About half of that goes to our church and the rest is split among a variety of other charities/organizations. We also usually set aside another $50-$75/month for anything extra that comes up that we want to give to; lately this has included things like Fair Fight and the runoffs in Georgia, our local tenant resource center, and our local food pantry.
Electric: Anywhere from $40-$100 depending on the time of year; right now it’s about $50.
Wifi: $70
Cellphones: $175 (includes service, leases for both our phones, and insurance for both phones)
Subscriptions: Spotify Premium Duo for $13.70, Disney Plus for $7, we use my husband’s parents’ Netflix, Hulu is free with our phone plan, and we’re on my parents’ Amazon Prime account.
Pet expenses: We don’t budget a set amount monthly specifically for our cat, but her prescription food costs about $35 every six weeks, and we also always keep a few hundred dollars earmarked for occasional vet expenses.
Car insurance: $78.16/month (total for 2 cars)
Car registration: $226/year so we budget $19/month (total for 2 cars)
School fees: This varies and is paid on a semester basis, but we budget about $100/month for fees for my husband’s grad program. He doesn’t have to pay tuition but he does have to pay these fees (I’ll take it).
Costco membership: $60/year so essentially $5/month
Gas: $75, but this is hard to estimate
Groceries: We’re budgeting about $350 right now--a little more than in the before times but our entertainment budget is a little less to compensate.
Entertainment: $200 (see above)--in normal times this would include going out to eat, going to concerts or sporting events, etc. Now it’s pretty much just takeout.
Allowance/personal spending money: $100 each for my husband and me, which rolls over to the next month if we don’t use all of it.
This is getting long but we also budget on a monthly basis for personal care, household items, and alcohol, and for many other things on a medium-to-long-term basis in sinking funds. We use a zero-based budget, so every dollar we bring in gets allocated somewhere.
Section 4: Money Attitudes
Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If so, how did you pay for it?: Yes, both of my parents have master’s degrees, and I was a very good student growing up, so it was always a given that I would pursue higher education. I have a BA and double-majored in communications and writing. I’ve covered above in the student debt section how my degree was paid for; I’m very blessed to have had my parents provide for me in this way, and I realize it has given me a huge leg up as far as savings and financial stability goes.
Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have around money? Did your parents educate you on finances?: We didn’t have a ton of conversations around money, but my parents are (as far as I can tell) very responsible with money and live well within their means, so I think I’ve learned from their example more so than from explicit instruction. We lived pretty frugally growing up, and it’s clear to me now that my parents could have had a newebigger house, nicer car, better vacations, etc, but chose not to so that they could follow through on their commitment to paying for a degree, a car, and a wedding for each of their children (which, again, has given me an enormous financial advantage in my adult life). I did have an allowance growing up and was always taught to put at least 10% toward giving, 10% to savings, and then I could do what I wanted with the rest of it, which I think was a great mindset to have from an early age.
What was your first job and why did you get it?: Maybe working the cash snack bar at our neighborhood pool when I was in middle school? I also babysat from a fairly young age. I worked a couple of other random and short-lived part-time jobs during high school and college but didn’t make much money from them and didn’t need them for my living expenses since my parents were fully supporting me.
Did you worry about money growing up?: I never worried about money growing up. If my parents had financial hardships during my childhood, they never let it show.
Do you worry about money now?: I used to worry about money a lot for the first several years of my marriage. I knew we had a good amount of money saved, but we didn’t have that money earmarked for particular things (emergency fund, travel, car maintenance, medical expenses, etc), so whenever a big expense came up, I got incredibly anxious because I didn’t really know where that money was coming from or whether this expense was leaving us vulnerable in another area. Switching to a zero-based budget and having designated savings funds for all major expenses (both recurring and unpredictable) has created an enormous amount of freedom for me with money. I don’t freak out anymore when we go to spend $1500 on plane tickets for a trip (hypothetical right now, of course) because I can see the money we have set aside in our travel fund for that exact purpose, and I know that spending that money isn’t affecting our ability to deal with an emergency because we have a separate emergency fund for that. All that to say, I don’t experience much anxiety about money anymore and I credit our budgeting system for that in a big way.
At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net?: I would consider myself financially responsible for myself once I got married, which was a few months after graduating from college. If my husband and I were to fall on hard times, both of our families would have the resources and the willingness to help us out to some extent.
Do you or have you ever received passive or inherited income? If yes, please explain.
As mentioned above, my parents opened a mutual fund for me when I was very young with I think $1000 in it, but nothing has been added to that since. I have no idea about future inheritances or anything like that.
Note: the week I documented for this diary occurred in early December--a couple of weeks earlier than the date I’m posting this. Also, masks are a given anytime we leave the apartment.
​
Day 1: Thursday
7:00am: My alarm goes off; my husband (H) and I alternate snoozing each of our alarms for the next 40 minutes, which is a loud and frequent morning ritual that leads to no additional actual sleep but at least lets us stay in bed longer.
7:40am: I remember that I start work at 8 today instead of 9 (like most days), so I jump out of bed, take a quick shower, and get dressed. H’s brother calls so he is chatting with him on the phone while I get ready.
8:00am: I sign in to work; it looks like it will be another slow day (typical for this time of year), so I need to motivate myself to work ahead on some things. Instead, I check my personal email and read the news.
8:30am: For breakfast, I make a toasted whole wheat English muffin with butter and honey, grab a handful of grapes, and make a Nespresso. I eat at my desk while I semi-work and listen to podcasts (this morning, it’s Brene Brown’s Unlocking Us and the 5-minute NPR News Now). H leaves to go into work for a few hours; there are certain things he can’t do from home, but since the pandemic, everyone in his workplace can only work in-person (masked and distanced) during an assigned shift time in order to reduce the volume of people there, so he splits his workdays between the university and our home office (which we share). Thankfully, there’s never more than a handful of people there at the same time as him and his colleagues are conscientious about following COVID protocols, so we feel pretty comfortable with him going in.
11:15am: Hungry again; I snack on Moon Cheese, which are these crunchy cheese bites that we got from Costco a month or so ago. I don’t really like them. I take a break from my computer to make the bed and tidy up our bedroom a little.
12:00pm: Lunch break--I spend the first half hour putting on makeup since I have some video calls this afternoon and evening. Pre-COVID, I considered makeup a hobby and would wear it even if I didn’t have anywhere to go or anyone to see, but a lot of the joy has been sucked out of it for me. Now, I usually just wear the bare minimum to look “presentable” on Zoom. I’m trying to have more fun with it again, though, so today I use a multichrome eyeshadow from indie brand Clionadh Cosmetics that I haven’t touched in months. Once I’m done, I have a quick lunch of a sandwich and chips before my meeting.
1:00pm: I log onto my weekly team meeting for work; H gets home partway through and brings me my Panera coffee order that he picked up on the way home. We both have a free trial of Panera’s coffee subscription right now and are taking full advantage!
4:00pm: Done with work! H has an important meeting now, so I get out of the office to give him some privacy. I start prepping chicken enchiladas for dinner.
5:30pm: The meeting went great! We eat the enchiladas and end up with a ton of leftovers. I put the food away and knock out a few dishes.
6:00pm: We get on Zoom for our weekly church small group meeting. There was a time when we felt comfortable meeting outdoors and distanced, but at this point, we’re on Zoom for the foreseeable future. Not to mention it’s cold here now.
7:30pm: Small group is done! I get an automated email from my side job letting me know that a second draft of an essay I previously worked on is available for me to edit, so I grab my computer and work on that for a little while.
8:30pm: H runs to the store for two bottles of Liquid Plumr for our shower drain (the glamour!) and red wine ($28.45). Fun fact about Wisconsin: you can’t buy alcohol from a store (anywhere that’s not a restaurant/bar) after 9pm, so he gets the wine purchase in just in time. I finish the dishes while he’s gone.
9:00pm: We put one of those 4K fireplace YouTube videos on the TV, turn on the Christmas lights, and each have a glass of wine while chatting and looking through old photos on H’s phone. H also makes some pizza rolls as a snack and I eat a couple.
11:30pm: I get ready for bed and after watching TikToks together in bed for a little while, we go to sleep.
Total: $28.45
Day 2: Friday
8:00am: Snooze my alarm for an hour before finally getting up. I am really moving slow in the mornings these days. H left to go into work around 6:30, so I have the apartment to myself for a while. I tidy up a few things around the house and spend a little while reading on the couch; the cat joins me.
9:00am: I make a Nespresso and sign on to work. I work on some tasks and send emails while listening to NPR News Now and NY Times The Daily podcasts.
10:00am: For breakfast, I have an egg over easy on toast and some grapes, again eating while I work. I spend some time reading COVID news and looking at our county’s data dashboard; our county, and Wisconsin overall, have actually been consistently trending down lately as far as cases go, which is surprising. Our plans for Christmas are still up in the air; we have been hoping and planning to visit our immediate families since we haven’t seen them in a year, but I’m still worried about the risk involved even if we are as careful as possible (quarantining beforehand, getting tested, driving instead of flying, etc). We’re putting off making a decision as long as we can.
11:30am: Our small group is “adopting” (buying Christmas gifts for) a family from a local school our church partners with, and I’ve been tasked with helping organize this, so I create a sign-up list in a Google spreadsheet to share with our group so we can keep track of what items have been purchased. I also start filling out my self-evaluation for my semi-annual review at work, which is next week. There’s twice as many questions on this evaluation compared to ones from past years (why??), so good thing I’m getting a head start.
12:15pm: I snack on Moon Cheese to tide me over until my late lunch today, but I’m still hungry afterward and craving something sweet, so I have a handful of cookies and cream popcorn that I bought a couple weeks ago to support a friend’s kid’s fundraiser (twist my arm, right).
1:00pm: Break time--I do a 20 minute full body HIIT workout from a MadFit YouTube video that really kicks my ass (my upper body and core strength is pretty dismal...I’m working on it). I shower, change, and for lunch I have leftover pesto and tomato pasta and half of an apple. We stan Honeycrisp in this household.
2:00pm: Back to work. H gets home and brings in a few packages from the mail area downstairs (one of them is a Christmas gift for him with very obviously branded packaging...oops). The other is a couple of books I ordered from Bookshop when they were having their Black Friday weekend free shipping promotion: Because Internet: Understanding the New Rules of Language by Gretchen McCulloch, which is about how the internet is changing the English language, and Dune by Frank Herbert, which I can’t believe I’ve never read but definitely want to before the movie comes out next year!
3:30pm: I knock out some tasks for work and then take a break to carry our overflowing laundry basket downstairs to the basement laundry room and start two loads. I pay using our prepaid card that we reloaded a few weeks ago, so there’s no actual cost today. As a side note, I will greatly prioritize in-unit laundry wherever we live next. I really hate lugging a heavy laundry basket up and down multiple flights of stairs (and it’s always heavy because we put it off because we hate doing it so much. Vicious cycle.)
4:00pm: Time to switch the laundry over. On my way back upstairs I check our mailbox and see that we got a letter from our bank letting us know that an instance of fraud we had reported a few months ago had been verified and the temporary credit they had applied to our account is now permanent. So that’s a relief! Thankfully there was not much money in the account to begin with (it’s one that we use for travel because there are no foreign transaction fees and they refund us any ATM fees), but this is the second time this year we’ve had an issue with fraud (different accounts and banks each time).
5:00pm: Done with work; H brings up the laundry and we fold it together. H isn’t hungry yet but I am, so for dinner, I heat up some leftover ham and potato soup (made with leftover ham from Thanksgiving...it’s leftovers all the way down!) and make a boring salad--spring mix with diced tomato and Caesar dressing.
6:00pm: We head to Costco together, stopping first to get gas for H’s car ($22.29). We only have a few things on our Costco list but end up coming home with ginger beer, sparkling water, toilet paper, paper towels, two bottles of wine, prosciutto, pains au chocolat, a Ghirardelli chocolate assortment, cinnamon cranberry goat cheese, tikka masala sauce, sundried tomatoes, and olive oil ($127.98). Several impulse buys in there for sure, but we allow ourselves some of those since we only go to Costco once a month. I was amazed that they had both TP and paper towels in stock at the same time so we couldn’t pass that up--we were getting low on both anyway.
7:00pm: Back home, we unload the groceries and put everything away. I microwave and eat one of the pains au chocolat--these were a good purchase. I pour a glass of wine, H has a beer, and we repeat the same scene as last night: fire on the TV, Christmas lights on, chatting about life and the future--these are our favorite types of nights together. Since H didn’t eat dinner and I’m still hungry too, we pull together a makeshift charcuterie plate with what we have around the house and it actually turns out pretty well! Salami, prosciutto, the cranberry cinnamon goat cheese we just bought, Boursin cheese, and crackers.
9:30pm: H mentions this game he saw someone playing on Twitch called Late Shift, which is less like a video game and more like a choose-your-own-adventure movie. We decide to download it and try it out ($13.70) and H makes Moscow mules for us to drink while we play. It’s an interesting concept but falls a little flat for us in its execution; a lot of times, you’re given two options and you choose one, but the result you get still ends up being essentially the same as if you chose the other option, so it doesn’t really feel like the choices matter--which I would think is the whole point, right? We get bored of it after a while and decide to stop halfway through and maybe pick it up again another time.
11:30pm: We both get ready for bed, scroll TikTok for a little while, then fall asleep.
Total: $163.97
Day 3: Saturday
8:30am: Both of us wake up around the same time. It’s nice to get to sleep in together; often, H has to go into work on Saturday mornings, but not today! I put on a little makeup, then H makes us coffee and I drink mine while updating our budget spreadsheet with yesterday’s purchases.
10:00am: We join a Zoom call for a standing-invitation Saturday morning virtual brunch with a few friends and friends-of-friends. I warm up a pain au chocolat and slice up the other half of the apple from yesterday and eat as discreetly as possible while we all chat.
11:15am: I say goodbye to everybody and head out to my haircut and color appointment; I haven’t been since June, so it’s definitely needed. My hairdresser and I chat about COVID and the holidays. With tip, my total is $165 (I actually mean to tip a little more but do my mental math wrong--ugh).
1:30pm: I get home from the salon and am surprised to find that the Zoom brunch hangout is still ongoing, so I pop in again to say hi. I’m super hungry, so I heat up leftover enchiladas for me and H for lunch. I feel weird about eating anything on camera really, but I definitely draw the line at eating enchiladas on camera, so I eat in the kitchen while H wraps up the Zoom call. I want something sweet so I grab a couple pieces of chocolate afterwards, too.
2:00pm: H goes in our office to play Minecraft with some friends for the rest of the afternoon. I check to see if there’s work available for my side job, but there’s nothing. It’s been the slowest week for essay volume that I can remember since I started this job, which means I definitely won’t get a paycheck for this week (I have to earn at least $100 to get paid by the end of the week; if I don’t hit $100, the amount rolls over to the next week). Having a side job like this that I can pick up and work on almost anytime is a double-edged sword in that it’s great to have that flexibility, but I also find myself feeling guilty if I have time to work and I choose to do something fun or relaxing with my free time instead.
2:30pm: I’m part of my church’s communications/social media team and I’m scheduled to put up a post today, so I spend a few minutes pulling that together on Instagram. Then I decide to check for essays one more time and I find there’s one available, so I grab it and work on that for a while. It’s a bit of a tricky one and takes me about twice as long as it should, so I finish feeling kind of frustrated.
4:00pm: I take care of a few things around the house, including unloading/reloading the dishwasher, cleaning the litterbox, and wrapping a couple of Christmas gifts. I have to put the cat in time-out because she keeps wanting to walk on the wrapping paper. I listen to an episode of the Around the NFL podcast while I work.
5:30pm: I make grilled cheese and tomato soup for dinner for me and H, and we eat together. I have some chips as well and some more chocolate. Making great choices.
6:00pm: H cleans up from dinner and does the dishes while I start reading Dune. I’ve been really wanting a fantasy novel I can lose myself in like I did as a kid, and I hope this will provide that for me. However, I definitely don’t have the attention span for reading that I did when I was younger, so I end up putting the book away to scroll on my phone for a while.
8:00pm: H and I get on a Google Meet call with some friends to play Jackbox games. We play several from the newest party pack; they’re super fun and it goes really smoothly over the video call (hasn’t always been the case when we’ve tried this in the past).
10:30pm: We say goodnight to our friends and wrap up the call. H goes back to Minecraft for a little while, and I catch myself scrolling mindlessly through my phone again and decide to just put it away for the night. I often find myself getting frustrated and annoyed lately by how much I’m on my phone for no good reason, so I’ve been trying to put it completely away for a while when I feel that way. I put my phone on the charger, wash my face, and put on a sheet mask.
11:45pm: I don’t remember how we spend the rest of the evening, but we still end up staying up pretty late (for us). Oddly, I don’t feel tired at all, but once in bed I fall asleep immediately.
Total: $165
Day 4: Sunday
8:30am: We’re both awake; I must have slept really well because I feel more rested than I have in a while. H gets in the shower and I grab my phone to review my fantasy football lineup before the games this afternoon. My team got off to a strong start but has been on a losing streak the second half of the season; I’m no longer in the running for a playoff appearance, but it’s still fun week to week.
9:00am: H has to quickly stop by work so he leaves for a little while. I make coffee in the Chemex and drink it while reading Reddit and looking at emails. I also redeem our credit card cashback for the past month and update our budget spreadsheet (total from two cards is $87.96).
9:45: H is on his way home from work and calls to see if we want to get food along with our Panera coffee orders. That sounds good to me, so I place my order and get a breakfast sandwich: bacon, egg, and cheese on brioche, and hazelnut coffee with half and half. Since the coffee is free, my total with tip comes to $6.50. H’s is $5.26.
10:00am: I turn on the YouTube livestream of our church’s Sunday service; H gets home shortly after it starts with our Panera coffee and breakfast. My order is slightly wrong--ciabatta bread rather than brioche--which isn’t a huge deal at all but contributes to the ongoing experience that whenever we order takeout food, my order is almost always wrong and H’s never is. It’s kind of a running joke at this point because it’s happened so many times since COVID. We eat while watching the church livestream.
11:30am: After church, we turn on the pregame coverage for whatever NFL game is available in our area (it’s Lions-Bears), and I purchase a Christmas gift I’ve been considering for a while for a friend: a set of specialty cocktail bitters from Bittercube, which is based in WI. It comes out to $40.89 with shipping. I pick up an essay to edit and work on that for a little while with the game on in the background, occasionally checking my fantasy score (as expected, it’s not looking great).
1:30pm: For lunch, I make a salad with spring mix, prosciutto, dates, walnuts, goat cheese, and homemade cider date dressing. We switch to watching the Jaguars-Vikings game since H and I both have players in this game on our fantasy teams. I also grab another short essay to edit; I’m glad I’ve been able to pick up at least a few over the weekend.
3:00pm: I spend a while working on a cross-stitch project while watching the Packers-Eagles game. I grew up in a home where sports were always on TV on weekends/evenings, so there’s something comforting and familiar to me about having football on in the background even if I’m not always paying attention. Once I get bored of cross-stitching, I snack on some of the cookies and cream popcorn and watch the game while wasting time on my laptop. I read that Rudy Giuliani has COVID and can’t help but relish the schadenfreude a little.
5:00pm: I get an email from Target that something I had viewed was on sale; it’s the Anova sous vide we had been considering buying for H’s mom for Christmas. With the sale price, two additional 10% off promotions, and the tiny amount of Target Circle earnings on my account, it comes out to $84.01 all told. I purchase it for pickup at our local store; H will get it on his way back from work tomorrow.
6:00pm: Inspired by a TikTok recipe, I decide to pull out my Instant Pot and make creamy garlic parmesan chicken pasta. I have a glass of wine while I cook.
7:00pm: We eat in front of the TV while watching the start of the Sunday Night Football game. The pasta is delicious; I meant to make a veggie side to go with it but forgot. Carbs it is! I also warm up some leftover pumpkin crisp from Thanksgiving for dessert.
7:30pm: H cleans up from dinner, sweeps the kitchen, and takes out the trash. I spend the evening reading Dune and watching the rest of the game. When the game is over, H makes us whiskey sours and we watch TikToks and hang out for a while.
11:45pm: We finally make it to bed. I lay awake for a long time trying to imagine how I would even go about telling my mom we aren’t coming for Christmas if that’s what we decide. There’s no scenario in which that goes well.
Total: $136.66
Day 5: Monday
7:45am: I’m up, I’m up. No shower yet because I plan to work out at lunchtime. H has already made coffee and we hang out for a little while as we drink it.
9:00am: H leaves for work and I sign on to work. I actually have a decent amount to do today. For breakfast, I have some grapes and a warmed-up pain au chocolat.
10:30am: I’m browsing YouTube for something to put on in the background while I work and I see an SNL skit from this past weekend called “The Christmas Conversation” in my recommended feed. It’s exactly what I expect it to be and it both makes me laugh and want to cry--very relevant to my late-night imaginings yesterday.
12:30pm: One of my Christmas presents arrives: the first delivery of a Winc wine subscription. I don’t mind it not being a surprise; I specifically asked for this and I already knew H was getting it for me because he had to ask me to take the quiz about my wine preferences. I won’t open it until Christmas, though.
1:00pm: On my break, I do a 12-minute intense full body HIIT workout (another MadFit one), and the “intense” description in the title is accurate. That’s enough for me for one day, so I just pedal on our stationary bike for a few minutes to cool down before taking a shower. H gets home with our Panera coffees; I got iced coffee this time. I’m ravenously hungry from my workout, to the point of feeling a little faint, so I heat up pasta from last night for lunch, then end up grabbing some chips and a couple pieces of chocolate, too.
2:00pm: I try to buckle down and get some work done in the afternoon. At least what I have to do today is self-paced tasks rather than anything urgent or time-sensitive. I make some more progress on my self-evaluation and give some thought to what I want the next year at my job to look like. I have increasingly had opportunities to work with departments outside of support as my time at this company has gone on, and those opportunities tend to be the most gratifying parts of my job because I’m better able to use my skill set there and do work I enjoy. Ideally, I would eventually transition mostly or completely out of support and into some sort of role within the company where I can do more writing and editing (which is what I do a lot of in these side projects), but I don’t know if that will ever be a possibility.
5:00pm: For dinner after work, it’s leftovers again. I read Dune for a little while followed by sweeping the bathroom floor and vacuuming the rugs.
6:30pm: My mom wanted to catch up today so I give her a call. I have to reiterate to her that we are feeling hesitant about traveling for the holidays, but it’s clear she is not going to go down without a fight on this, and I can hear how upset she is. I try to be clear and firm about my concerns, but she’s my mom, so I also feel like I have to concede to her points wherever I can and not push things too hard. I get off the call feeling physically sick to my stomach.
7:15pm: H and I talk about Christmas and he is adamant that if we do go, my parents need to commit to at least a “soft” quarantine (no nonessential interactions/outings) for 10 days before we arrive because they are being pretty irresponsible in our view about who they see and what they do right now. Knowing what we do now about their own exposure, it’s becoming clear that they are almost certainly a bigger danger to us than we are to them. I text my mom and let her know about those ground rules (while still not committing to anything), and she seems open to that plan and asks some questions about what we are and aren’t comfortable with. I think she will do whatever she needs to for us to come, which we may be able to use to our advantage.
11:15pm: I feel totally drained from my conversation with my mom and my anxiety about the holidays, so I spend the rest of the evening vegging on the couch and watching Monday Night Football. I make a cup of peppermint tea and have a stroopwafel, and we eventually head to bed.
Total: $0
Day 6: Tuesday
5:30am: H had to leave for work really early today, which inevitably woke me up, and I think it threw the cat off too because while I try to go back to sleep, she spends the next couple of hours really leaning into her chaotic energy--tearing around the room at warp speed, jumping on the dresser, scratching the side of the bed and the walls. This used to be a common problem very early in the mornings but hasn’t happened in a while.
8:30am: The cat eventually chills tf out and I get maybe an hour more of sleep. I read news on my phone and respond to a few texts. I am feeling a little calmer today about holiday plans, but now H is texting me about how anxious he is feeling about everything. That’s the secret to marriage--just try not to both be freaking out at the same time. (Kinda joking, but kinda not?)
9:00am: I make a Nespresso and start work. For breakfast, I have an egg over easy on toast and some grapes. I feel so unfocused and unmotivated today, but I do submit my self-evaluation and make progress on some other tasks. I take a break to snuggle with my cat; I haven’t talked about her a lot in this diary but she’s my buddy and basically my shadow. She is super attached to me and her affection makes her wild antics worth it.
1:00pm: Aaaand as soon as I say something nice about her, she throws up on the bed. I clean it up and put the comforter and sheets in the laundry basket. I guess we’re doing laundry again. On my break, I edit a short essay revision and make boxed mac and cheese for lunch. H gets home with our Panera coffees and we split the mac and cheese.
5:00pm: I force myself to be reasonably productive throughout the afternoon. After work, I run out to do a few errands--I pick up a prescription from the Walgreens pharmacy drive-through ($2.68, I pay with my HSA), and I run into Target to get shampoo and conditioner for myself and a few things for H’s stocking ($55 even). Target is surprisingly deserted which is nice, and I’m able to get in and out quickly.
6:00pm: H did the laundry while I was gone, and we fold it together and remake the bed when I get home. I fill H’s stocking with the items I bought, which completes all of my gifts for him for this year.
7:00pm: We’re both tired of leftovers, so H suggests we make another charcuterie plate and have that for dinner. I have a small salad as well, and we eat while we watch...Tuesday Night Football? What a weird season. There’s a slim chance I could still win my fantasy game this week, so I’m somewhat invested in this game. I have a glass of wine.
10:00pm: I do not win my fantasy game. We get in bed at a reasonable hour but spend a while reading; I read a little of Well-Read Black Girl, which is a collection of essays that is my “nightstand” read at the moment, and a little of Dune. Lights out around 11.
Total: $57.68
Day 7: Wednesday
7:45am: Up and at ‘em. I shower, make coffee in the Chemex, blow-dry my hair, and read a little.
9:00am: H leaves for work, and I start work and make myself an English muffin with butter and honey and half of an apple for breakfast. I listen to an episode of The Daily podcast about the first doses of the COVID vaccine being administered in the UK. It’s hard to wrap my mind around the idea that we’ve finally reached this point, even though it’s still going to take a long time for things to feel anything like normal again for most people.
11:30am: I’m scheduled for another church social media post, and I fumble around in Illustrator for a while trying to get the image to look the way I want. I know there’s a ton of free basic courses/tutorials out there on how to use it, and I would probably get way more out of it and get less frustrated if I just went through one of those one weekend. H is pretty proficient in Illustrator, so he often helps me. I snack on some chips and the cat tries to as well.
1:00pm: The weather is mild today (upper 40s, sunny, and no wind), so I take a walk around the neighborhood on my lunch break and listen to The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I have a sandwich and grapes for lunch when I get back.
2:00pm: H gets home with our Panera coffees right as I am getting back to work. He grabbed lunch out today, which cost $11.09. We both go online and book free COVID tests for next week, a few days before our tentative departure date for Christmas.
5:00pm: I have a steadily busy afternoon of work, but I get everything done. After work, I browse Etsy for a Christmas gift for a friend and land on a cute London-themed tea towel; we and our spouses were supposed to go to London together earlier this year and are hoping we can still make the trip happen next year. It’s coming from the UK, so shipping is expensive; the total comes out to $27.38. I don’t know if it will arrive before Christmas, but I don’t think I’ll see this friend to give it to her until after Christmas anyway.
6:00pm: Dinner is...you guessed it, leftovers. We finish off the enchiladas. Normally I would do a lot more cooking in a week, but I’ve just happened to make several meals lately that created a lot of leftovers.
8:00pm: Quiet evening at home. H has some work to do tonight from home; I read Dune and scroll Reddit for a while. I edit a short essay. H finishes wrapping my Christmas gifts and we hang out for a while.
11:00pm: We chat with some friends in a group text before eventually heading to bed.
Total: $38.47
At the end of each day please tally up your daily expenses. Then at the end of your diary please tally up all expenses in the following categories:
Food + Drink: $127.10
Fun / Entertainment: $13.70
Home + Health: $74.76
Clothes + Beauty: $165
Transport: $22.29
Other (all gifts): $187.38
Lastly, reflect on your diary! How do you feel about your spending? Was this a normal week for you? Has this inspired you to make changes or has it given you a “wow I’m doing pretty good” confidence boost? Is there anything you’re actively working on? No need to answer any or all these questions but just use this space to write any thoughts you have!
There are some outliers here as far as spending goes because of the gift purchases and the hair appointment which only comes around every 4-5 months, but beyond that, this was pretty normal weekly spending for us. Interestingly, I felt more self-conscious about sharing what I ate than about anything money-related--I tend to think of myself as a fairly healthy eater but I don't think that was the case this week!