LSU vs. Clemson: 5 bold predictions for CFP National
LSU vs. Clemson: 5 bold predictions for CFP National
LSU vs. Clemson: Preview and Predictions - Geaux247
Updated National Championship 2020 Odds: LSU vs. Clemson
LSU vs. Clemson spread, odds, line: Predictions, picks and
LSU vs. Clemson odds, prediction, betting trends for
LSU vs. Clemson: Spread, Pick & Odds for Championship
LSU vs. Clemson Predictions From SI Experts
Clemson vs. LSU Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Will
LSU vs. Clemson predictions, picks, odds, line, spread for
LSU Vs. Clemson: Early Odds, The Spread, And The Over
lsu vs clemson predictions against the spread
lsu vs clemson predictions against the spread - win
Previewing the 2021 CFP National Championship game
https://preview.redd.it/u9tnu06rraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3b8cc6942727bd40ebd62f8cf8a90636ebef08f The two teams meeting in this year’s national title game took very different paths to get here. The SEC (together with the ACC) was one of only two conferences to basically start the season “on time” and Alabama played ten regular season games, to go along with beating Florida in a shootout in the SEC title game and a convincing 31-14 win over Notre Dame in the CFP semifinal of the Rose Bowl. Ohio State on the other hand had three of their eight regular games canceled due to COVID concerns and it took the Big Ten to change their rules about the minimum amount of games played to qualify for a spot in the conference championship game, which they struggled with Northwestern through three-and-a-half quarters, but then surprisingly lit Clemson up 49-28 in the Sugar Bowl, to make it to the big game. All those different factors that have led to the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes meeting in the CFP final don’t matter now, because while people may want to put an asterisk to this very unique season, in the end one of these teams can call themselves national champions. So now let’s see how these two teams match up and what I believe will happen. I will have one paragraph each for one team’s offense, the defense they are facing and how some of the matchups may favor either side, then I give you one X-factor for each team and finally get to my score prediction.
Alabama offense vs. Ohio State defense:
https://preview.redd.it/jyv3a03vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=1425bbefc430d3461c32c9568f98bb050e990ec5 The Crimson Tide offense to me is really based around the RPO game, which they use a lot in combination with those wide zone runs out of shotgun or power with both guards pulling. And even when they run more downhill, they stress defenses horizontally with all the bubble screens and stuff they have integrated. Maybe their best run play is duo out of pistol sets, where Najee Harris is very patient when picking his spots, but then becomes a load to bring once he shifts into gear. To me he has been the best college running back over the last two years, because he shows excellent pace and vision for backside cuts and while he may not great breakaway speed, he constantly gains yards through contact and we have seen him hurdle quite a few defenders now, who have tried to go low on him. Plus he is one of the top pass-protecting backs and route-runners in the country. In the dropback pass game, it is all about how they can create space for their receivers on crossing routes or get them into matchups with safeties down the field. One of the reasons this has been the most explosive Alabama offense ever – with three of the top five Heisman candidates – and OC Steve Sarkisian was just named the new head coach of Texas is the way they create leverage advantages for their receivers and how they attack the rules of defenses with different motions and run the same concepts out of their various sets – especially mesh. Something they love to do is have the back in the shotgun motion across his alignment and putting stress on those linebackers to shift with him. Plus they have elite pass protection, which allows those plays to develop, and Mac Jones has very calm feet when sliding around in the pocket, to go with excelling on touch passes. And with Sark saying he is still all-in for this game, his new job shouldn’t have any impact. Ohio State’s defense was pretty disappointing early on compared to the 2019 season, which has a lot to do with losing the number two and three picks to the most recent NFL draft in Chase Young and Jeffrey Okudah. They allowed 25 points to a pretty limited Penn State offense, 27 to Rutgers and 35 to Indiana. However, their defensive line has really started to take over games down the stretch and they have been very opportunistic since then, forcing four turnovers against Michigan State and then two each in both their “playoff games” basically. Their defensive tackle duo of Haskell Garrett and Tommy Togiai has been tremendous over the second half of their season and the Buckeyes have a lot of depth on the interior to keep them fresh. You see them stacking their blockers and then being very active with working back across their faces to get to the ball-carrier constantly, which has them as the number two run defense in the country behind only Georgia (89.1 yards per game). Something Clemson put a focus on early on in the semifinal game was attacking the edges of the Buckeye defense with jet sweeps, bubbles and tosses. And then if you get some lateral movement, both Tuf Borland and Pete Warner struggle to keep their shoulder squared to the line of scrimmage, which can get them burnt by cutbacks to where they originally lined up. Trevor Lawrence did throw for 400 yards against them in the Sugar Bowl, but that was more of a product of chipping away at more prevent defense, as Clemson was down early, and the Tigers were held to just 44 yards rushing. Still, they give up some big plays through the air, in part because of how soft their corners play in three-deep coverages. As great as Bama is at creating leverage issues and seemingly making it impossible for zone defenders to stay true to their assignments, in terms of not being able to properly to pass on receivers, I think Ohio State would be best served to just throw a lot of different hard shells at the Crimson Tide and not allow themselves to fall victim to their own match principles as much. Because if Michael Penix can light them up for almost 500 yards when they show single-high from the start, lord have mercy with them in this game. Shaun Wade has said that we “already know who he wants to go up against”, talking about Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith, who has averaged 136.8 yards per game and reached the end-zone 20 times this season. While the Buckeyes do play a lot of cover-three match, Wade does end up in one-on-one situations quite a bit in those single-high looks. However, I’m not sure if I love this matchup for him, because if Ohio State asks Wade to press, I think Smitty will give him a lot of issues with those stutter releases and while the receiver is only 6’1”, he has received the nickname “The Slim Reaper” in part because we have seen him kill people at the catch point throughout his career. And if Jaylen Waddle is back (who I’ll still talk about more in a bit), the Crimson Tide have a trio with those two and John Metchie that could give the rest of that secondary a lot of issues. A spot where the Buckeyes could give Alabama some trouble is at center, where the Tide lost one of their biggest leaders in Landon Dickerson on their final touchdown in the SEC title game, who is also a huge piece in creating movement on those combo-blocks with his guards and passing on different games up front by the D-line. So Tommy Togiai will definitely be a challenge at that shade nose position and I could see Ohio State put a lot of pressure on his replacement Chris Owens with delayed blitzes by their linebackers or bring somebody up the A-gaps on a delayed loop. The Buckeyes show a lot of five-man fronts on third downs and drop one man out, plus they like those E-T and inside twists.
Ohio State offense vs. Alabama defense:
https://preview.redd.it/yj46cq2vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=a417489a29fff438c7251ec7a8b17555e485d564 The view on this Ohio State offense and quarterback Justin Fields in particular has been kind of a see-saw over their last three weeks. They were scoring 46.6 points through their five regular Big Ten games, before they really struggled against Northwestern in the conference championship game, and then they reached the end-zone seven times against Clemson in the CFP semifinal. After Trey Sermon had only 344 rushing yards through the five regular season games combined, he went off for a school-record 331 on 29 carries against Northwestern, who gave the Buckeyes a lot of challenges in the pass game, and then he touched the ball 35 times for 254 yards against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. I wasn’t overly impressed with him in that Ohio State jersey until then, because I liked his Oklahoma tape so much better, but he has started to run so much more physical and that stiff arm he dishes out is becoming a real problem for defenders. Over that two-game stretch in particular, they have a lot of inside zone away from the tight-end and even more of the split zone, with one of the TEs lined up as the H-back and coming across on a sift block, where you see Sermon cut it all the way back routinely. Plus they have a bunch of bootlegs off it. Ryan Day also started using a lot more 12 personnel with Luke and Jeremy Ruckert, which gives them a lot of flexibility, whether it is putting them in bunches detached from the line or line them up to one side in two-by-two sets, to force the hand of the defense. Something they create problems with out of those stacks and bunches are the switch releases they use and when they get Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson matched up against safeties vertically from the slot. And with their run game really kicking into gear, they have been deadly off play-action, which all of their successful deep balls came from against Clemson – mostly with seven men in protection or leaking one of them out late. And while Justin Fields hasn’t been a surgical passer necessarily, double-clutching and making some ill-advised throws, he can still let it fly and just watch the play he had before their second TD in the Sugar Bowl, when the Tigers were all over a running back screen and he took off to get them back into position for him to fire a laser to his tight-end in the end-zone on the very next snap, with a defender in perfect position. This is not the Alabama defense of the early 2010s that held opponents to single-digit points on a regular basis, but it’s also certainly not the one from the last year, that got lit up for 94 combined points by their two biggest rivals in LSU and Auburn. The two teams that gave the Crimson Tide defense a lot of issues were wide open spread offenses – Ole Miss put 48 points up against them and Florida in the SEC championship game 46 (funnily also a combined 94). However, in the ten other games they have played, they allowed an average of just 12.4 points per contest. They play a lot three down-linemen plus one of their OLBs standing up on the edge and they have two very rangy linebackers behind that. Bama gives up an average of 20 first downs to their opponents (tied for 44th in the country), but they create a lot of negative plays, with an SEC-high 6.4 tackles for loss per game, to go with 34 sacks and 22 takeaways in 12 games. Nick Saban and DC Pete Golding run more split-safety looks than I can remember in a while, because while they do have arguably the top corner in the country in Patrick Surtain II, the rest of their secondary can be exploited. And that also makes them vulnerable over the middle on dig routes and attacking the seams, while not doing a whole lot of disguising on the back-end. Ohio State hit Clemson over the top for a 56-yard touchdown to Chris Olave, when they were running a double post concept against quarters coverage – so those safeties can’t really squat on those in-breaking routes either. To not let those downfield patterns develop, the Tide will have to come after Fields, where Christian Barmore has turned himself into a monster at create push up the middle and then you have Will Anderson coming off the edge with ferocious pursuit – so Fields better be careful with holding onto the ball when he gets outside the tackle box. As much love as the matchup between Devonta Smith and Shaun Wade will get, I’m also looking forward to seeing how much Chris Olave and Patrick Surtain II will be matched up against each other. As technically advanced as Surtain may be with his fake press technique and guiding receivers into the boundary, he just gave up a long touchdown against Florida in the SEC title game on a pass that hung in the air for a while, which is where he hasn’t been tested a whole lot this season. Surtain almost exlusively lines up on the defensive left outside, so I still expect the Buckeyes to get their receivers in better matchups usually though. Going back to the Florida game, something the Gators did a ton of is getting Kadarius Toney matched up with Alabama’s nickel of STAR Malachi Moore and put him in a plenty of disadvantages, even lining Toney up in the backfield at times. I don’t know if he can hang with those Buckeye receivers, as long as they have enough protection to let routes develop. Not only that, but we have seen opposing teams give the Tide some trouble by getting their backs out on wheel routes or just releasing late with a lot of space underneath – especially Dylan Moses, who can definitely move, but panics with his back to the ball at times. Something Bama could create some issues with on the other hand, is scheming up free rushers, where they do a good job of lining one of the backers up in a gap and occupying the guard, while they bring their STAR off the slot or blitz Christian Harris from different angles, which Justin Fields is a little oblivious to at times and might not be able to get away from as effectively in this game.
X-factors:
https://preview.redd.it/qsh7t23vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3ba5d197a6f88a8227a32efb1272d370e0570b6 Alabama – Jaylen Waddle I usually don’t like going with star players as X-factors, because it obviously doesn’t really fit the category, but with Waddle his health and involvement could make a huge difference. Waddle was off to an incredible start to his junior season, as he basically averaged 142.2 yards and a touchdown through the first four games (since he broke his ankle on the opening kickoff against Tennessee). As phenomenal a season as Devonta Smith has had, this was the most dynamic player on that team and he looked like a Heisman candidate himself. Steve Sarkisian moved him all over the formation and attacked different matchups, while manufacturing touches for him on speed sweeps and stuff like that, to go along with the threat he presented as maybe the most dangerous return man in the country. Nick Saban has said that #17 will most likely be a true game-time decision and I wouldn’t expect him to play the majority of snaps, but if they can use him to attack the edges of the Buckeyes a few times, like I already talked about, or he can at least be a decoy, that would only make the Alabama offense even tougher to defend. Ohio State – Justin Fields’ ribs And then I’m going to go with a certain body part of another star player. Fields took a major shot to the mid-section by Clemson linebacker James Skalski in the first half of the Sugar Bowl. And while he went on to put together a performance for the ages with those six touchdowns, you saw him be in pain on several occasions when he released the ball. So not only could this be a factor in terms of his accuracy, if he tries to shorten that motion or kind of side-arm throws, but also just how much of an element as a runner he brings, pulling the ball on zone reads or scrambling if they give him a lane. And you already know those Bama defenders will try to land shots, to make him hesitant with putting himself into those situations. When you look at some of the big runs the Buckeyes have had before they switched to more of those pistol sets with two tight-ends on the field, you see the back basically replace the contain defender on the backside edge, as Fields takes that guy with him.
My prediction:
https://preview.redd.it/aqmkx03vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e2b879254cee7faefb54602bcf66c979725aa21 Alabama 41 – Ohio State 34 Could Justin Fields bring that “best player on the field” factor and kind of will his team to victory much like Deshaun Watson did against Alabama back in 2017? Yes. Mac Jones is not on the same level talent-wise and can’t make those same off-script plays like Fields, but if that Alabama O-line can keep him clean, like they have done all season long, and he can just take advantage of the separation his skill-position create as plays develop, the Ohio State secondary can not cover all those weapons. If the Buckeyes want to continue having success in the run game, they will have to get those linebackers out of position with misdirection, which they were vulnerable at early on in the season, and not allow the Crimson Tide to keep those three big D-linemen on the field. I could see the Ohio State linebackers get killed in space, as they have to match up with crossers or Najee Harris one-on-one. In the end I’m going with Nick Saban’s defense winning a few more plays against Ryan Day’s offense than the Buckeyes back-seven slowing down this explosive passing attack for Bama, as long as the D-line doesn’t make Mac Jones uncomfortable early on. If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could check out the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2021/01/08/previewing-the-2021-cfp-national-championship-game/
NCAA Football Week 5 - Analysis, Predictions and Odds
NCAA Football Week 5 - MAC's Analysis, Predictions and Odds 2021 College Football National Championship Odds + Pick Clemson +200 Alabama +400 Georgia +2000 LSU +10000 Notre Dame +4000 Florida +1200 Oklahoma +2800 Texas +4000 Auburn +6600 Texas A&M +5000 (MAC's Power Pick) Miami (FL) +8000 Oklahoma State +10000 MAC's NCAAF Red Alert Action - 10/03 - No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0) When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Spread: Alabama -17 Money Lines: Texas A&M +605 / Alabama -855 Total: 51.5 Texas A&M Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Ainias Smith 1 Rushing: Isaiah Spiller 117 Passing: Kellen Mond 189 Receiving: Caleb Chapman 40 Sacks: Micheal Clemons 1.5 Interceptions: Leon O'Neal Jr. 1 Alabama Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Najee Harris 3 Rushing Najee: Harris 98 Passing: Mac Jones 249 Receiving: Jaylen Waddle 134 Sacks: Labryan Ray 1.0 Interceptions: Thomas Fletcher 0 Quick Trends: Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Aggies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on grass. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Texas A&M busted up Vanderbilt 17-12 last weekend as quarterback Kellen Mond aired it out for the small 189 yards and got himself a touchdown. A&M running back Isaiah Spiller grabbed himself the small 117 rushing yards in the unwatchable low scoring game. Alabama smacked up Missouri 28-19 Bama quarterback Mac Jones passed for 249 yards and put 2 in the end zone, while running back Najee Harris put in his 98 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week both teams meet up for a good ol boys SEC game in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but on the flipside 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Alabama has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Tide can go get it done but reports coming in from our affiliates are ambivalent to give all those points away on the road at best, our consensus is going with Texas A&M to cover the chalk mainly because of the edge at quarterback. MAC's Game Prediction: Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27 Play: Texas A&M +17 10/03 - No. 18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1) When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA TV: ABC Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 Money Lines: Iowa State +210 / Oklahoma -260 Total: 62.5 Quick Trends: Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cyclones are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Sooners are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Sooners Team Leaders: Touchdowns Seth McGowan 2 Rushing Seth McGowan 134 Passing Spencer Rattler 677 Receiving Marvin Mims 111 Sacks DaShaun White 2.5 Interceptions Delarrin Turner-Yell 1 Cyclones Team Leaders: Touchdowns Breece Hall 4 Rushing Breece Hall 257 Passing Brock Purdy 356 Receiving Xavier Hutchinson 69 Sacks JaQuan Bailey 3.5 Interceptions Mike Rose 1 Oklahoma ran through Missouri State 48-0 in their opener, then hit a wall on Saturday with a depressing 38-35 loss against K-State as a insanely obnoxious 28-point favorite. Quarterback Spencer Rattler some how passed for 387 yards with four touchdowns even with 3 costly interceptions. Iowa State laid down against Louisiana Lafayette in their opener, and bumbled a cover against a suspect TCU team, final 37-34 as 3.5-point road favorite they should have had no problem with a soft line like that. Quarterback Brock Purdy got off 211 yards 1 touchdown, running back Breece Hall got 154 yards and 38 attempts and 3 trips to the end zone. The Sooners are paying the books at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall has Vegas building skyscrapers with bettors money, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, I mean these guys are a bunch of bums when it comes to getting the money. Now if you've been putting your action on Iowa State as a underdog you've made some cash, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss, I mean these guys are a golden egg if you play the line right. MAC is setting the standard and putting the business on the table, sharps and early money aren't making a dent in the line because oddsmakers made a tight one this week. MAC's looking at Spencer Rattle as the x factor, if he steps up this could very well be a easy win + cover for the Sooners, Iowa State is getting the 7.5 and MAC smells something fishy about the hook, play the over set at 62.5 up from 61.5 and don't be scared to give the points because Rattler will look like a stud this week against a mediocre Cyclone D. watch "Brock Purdy Lips" gets manhandled by DaShaun White. Iowa State Injury Report - T. Milton WR - Ques Sat - Milton was unavailable for the previous game due to a lower-body injury and it is unknown if he will line up versus Oklahoma on Saturday. R. Hudson OL - Ques Sat - Undisclosed T. Downing OL - Ques Sat - Downing missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday's contest against Oklahoma remains up in the air. MAC's Game Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Iowa State 24 Play: Over 62.5 Play: Oklahoma -7.5 No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0) Auburn made bacon out of the boys down in Kentucky 29-13 last weekend to cash in as a 6.5-point home favorite, big Bo Nix passed for 233 yards with 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and looking like a god damn stud averaging 6.8 rushing yards a game, MAC would let his daughter and mother date a guy like this, and they got wide receiver Seth Williams coming in catching six passes for 112 yards 2 TDs. Georgia looked like decent, getting through Arkansas 37-10 last weekend was impressive but not really, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and surprisingly no picks. Georgia scored 22 third quarter points to take control after going into the half down 7-5, now that could be good football but MAC is saying fluke and calling shenanigan's. When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: ESPN Spread: Georgia -6.5 Money Lines: Auburn +200 / Georgia -250 Total: 45 Auburn Team Leaders - Touchdowns D.J. Williams 1 Rushing Bo Nix 34 Passing Bo Nix 233 Receiving Seth Williams 112 Sacks Daquan Newkirk 1.0 Interceptions Roger McCreary 1 Georgia Team Leaders - Touchdowns Zamir White 1 (MAC's #BumAlert Prospect) Rushing Zamir White 71 Passing Stetson Bennett 211 Receiving Kearis Jackson 62 Sacks Nolan Smith 1.5 Interceptions Richard Lecounte 2 Auburn gets the money early in the season and has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 October games, but be cautious because Bulldogs are money makers too, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Tigers just can't get through Georgia and have sucked against the spread going 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Now MAC would normally stay away from a game like this but it's hard to bet against big Bo Nixon and that up tempo offense. Georgia -6.5 is a suckers bet, take those points and ride Bo's back like the rest of the Tigers! MAC's Game Prediction: Georgia 17 Auburn 27 Play: Auburn +6.5 Play: Under 45.5 (Get That Hook)
OVERVIEW Finishing the 2019 season with a 6-10 record was disappointing. Although there were a few bright spots like Gardner Minshew playing well, DJ Chark taking the next step into his development and turning into a WR1 for this team, Josh Allen balling out as a rookie, Smoot showing he is real contributor on defense and the rest of the rookie class showing that they are building blocks for this team. For every good there is a bad in this world, though for this season the jags had way more bad. Tom Coughlin was a parasite in the front office who abused his power on this franchise and ruled like a dictator, he alienated and got rid of top talent like Jalen Ramsey, Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue (in the process) , Allen Robinson, Malik Jackson and Telvin smith to say the least and gave preference and money to average players like Andrew Norwell, Blake Bortles and Nick Foles. His reign of terror was so bad the NFLPA gave out a message to upcoming FAs basically saying “be careful about going to Jacksonville”. The defense that once dominated the NFL is not even a shell of its former self, it's more of a rotten husk. The defense fell off badly and produced some of the worst performances in team history this season. The offensive line was horrible giving the QBs and RBs no help at all, Fournette apparently is still a problem in the locker room and the Jags tried hard to get rid of him. Finally… Nick Foles. An argument can be made that he was the worst part of the season. He got paid so much money to bring some stability and improved play to an offense that needed it, bringing in Foles already divided fans since many disagreed on the move and the money it was involved in. Foles ended up getting injured 10 snaps into the season and went 0-4 as a starter before getting benched by Gardner Minshew. During the horrid stretch of games by the jaguars in the middle of the season (vs Colts, Vs Titans and Vs Bucs) he was horrendous and basically saying “losing is fine,it builds culture”. That was the final straw for most if not all of jaguars, during the Bucs game he had 6 first half drives, first 3 were turnovers and then 3 straight three and outs. The whole stadium was chanting for Minshew. This will be a weird year since this offseason was perfect for a full on rebuild but only did “half” a rebuild. They got rid of players that had some value for draft picks like Calaias Campbell and AJ Bouye but the coaching staff and FO remained the same which made the decision perplexing to say the least (especially DC Todd Wash, WHY IS HE STILL EMPLOYED!?!?). The offensive coaching side may be the best it's been in many years with Jay Gruden and Ben McAdoo brought in to help what was an uninspiring dull offense. With 12 picks in this draft and 9 next season, an argument could be made that this draft and the next are the most important ones in franchise history. Good drafts and the jags could build a team that terrorizes the AFC. Bad drafts and we could see another dark age for the jags similar to the Gene Smith years in the early 2010s. NEEDS HEADING INTO THE DRAFT DBs: The departures of Ramsey and Bouye have left a huge hole at CB for this upcoming season and need some extra fresh faces. Safeties could use a better depth options OL: This OL is nigh horrendous and a penalty flag waiting to happen. Gave Minshew no time and the RBs no running lanes. WTE/offensive weapons: 70% of the time our offense was mostly Minshew running for his life and DJ Chark pulling a big play out of their asses. Chark was double covered as the season went by and no one stepped up. DL: The once dominating unit has lost Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, Yannick Ngakoue and Calaias Campbell in 2 years. Taven Bryan has not been consistent enough to be thought of for the future (As of now). This unit is horrendous vs the run. ROUND 1 PICK 9: CB CJ Henderson, Florida Why CB? With Jalen Ramsey gone we began to see cracks in the armor in this unit as the season went by. Without him the jaguars didn't have a legit CB1 and got torched by many WRs like Cortland Sutton, AJ Brown, Robbie Anderson and others. This unit was already pretty thin with Ramsey on the roster, without him it just got magnified. AJ Bouye is one of the better CB2s in the league but can't contend consistently vs top WRs in this league and got traded this offseason to the Broncos for extra cap space and draft picks. Herndon did show promise, improved as the season went by but still has ways to go to be a legit starting corner in this league, he started mainly because of desperation and nobody else being there. DJ Hayden is one of the better slot CBs in this league and arguably our best defensive player this past season. The team did bring in Rashaan Melvin to provide some needed depth. The problem? Aside from the starters being Tre Herndon and Rashaan Melvin as of before the draft and the lack of elite athleticism, All 3 of them (Hayden, Herndon and Melvin) are upcoming free agents in 2021. The Jags could potentially lose all 3 of their top CBs leaving them with a depleted CB group (a good year from Herndon and Hayden could command more money to bring them back). The rebuilding of this unit is paramount especially in the pass-happy era of the NFL we now live in and in a division with Phillip Rivers (who always has his best games vs us), Michael Pittman jr, TY Hilton, AJ Brown, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller. The Jags need the talent and depth on this unit or things could get very ugly this season, im talking 2015 levels of ugly. TLDR: Lack of elite talent, athleticism and depth and in a division with overall great talent. The current CB group are all on expiring contracts. Why CJ Henderson? This pick was highly controversial in jaguars due to another Gator being drafted high which is the 4th Florida gator drafted in the first 2 rounds of the draft in the past 6 years those being Dante Fowler (2015 3rd overall), Taven Bryan (2018 29th overall), Jawaan Taylor (2019 2nd round) and now Henderson. Jags haven't had a good recent history with the Florida program (Jawaan Taylor looks good but Fowler wasn't worth the selection and Bryan is trending towards bust territory. Also selections like Derrick Harvey set back the franchise for years and Josh Evans even though he was a late selection he started a bunch of games and was a huge liability at safety). Even though many disagreed, everyone understood the reasoning of the pick and couldn't deny the talent that he is. Florida’s current DC Todd Grantham stated that CJ Henderson is the best CB he has ever coached... After one year on the job and Grantham has coached for almost 30 years across both the college and the NFL ranks, so he says that means something. Grantham continued saying that Henderson is a very low maintenance player who will work his ass off and be of no problem on and off the field. Some draft analysts made the argument about having Henderson ahead of Okudah due to Henderson having a better athletic profile over Okudah. Henderson is a sticky man corner with top end speed to keep up deep and the quickness to jump a throw. Has more than ideal size at 6’1 and 202 lbs and 4.39 40 speed. Henderson held his own in his three years in the SEC against top SEC WR talent, allowing 52.7% completion percentage in his three years playing, his best year by far was 2018 in which he allowed 50% completion percentage and 19.1 snaps/reception which led returning CBs in the SEC . Was named second team all SEC in both his freshman and sophomore years and 1st team All SEC and second team all american in his junior year (he faced a nagging injury through his junior year and missed 4 games). Has the ability to return interception for touchdowns. Henderson is much better in man coverage where his athleticism is showcased being able to stick to the WRs hip throughout the route and his long arms being able to disrupt passing windows and press hard the WR, in zone he does have the occasional mental breakdown losing his man but his biggest weakness is his open field tackling. Henderson’s willingness to tackle has been brought up multiple times and was a major red flag for many draft experts, scouts and fans. Teams could exploit his tackling issues with the running game or with the quick passing game to the likes of AJ Brown and Michael Pittman. He needs to be more physical and consistent when it comes to tackling. Even though with his issues Henderson was slotted as one the better prospects for this draft. Also rumor has it that the Cardinals were thinking of drafting Henderson with the 8th pick but Isaiah Simmons fell to them. If Henderson wasn't there the Jags would have taken K’lavon Chaison at 9. Henderson will likely be starting right away alongside Tre Herndon. Prediction: 4 interceptions but won't be highly considered for DROY. Will be CB1 by week 5. Week 1-4 Herndon and Henderson will most likely be switching WRs ROUND 1 PICK 20:EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU Why EDGE? In last year's draft, I made the argument that Josh Allen was selected because of the looming Yannick Ngakoue contract talks and Calaias’s age and eventual decline. Campbell still played extremely well but he started to show a half a step slowness as the year waned, also he got traded to the ravens. Yannick Ngakoue is doing everything in his power to be as far away as possible from the Jags after Tom Coughlin mismanaged the contract talks. The jags will lose 15 of their 47 sacks for this season. Leaving only the newly acquired Rodney Gunter, Josh Allen and Dawuane Smoot as the only EDGE players on the roster. Smoot had a breakout year after a quiet first 2 years to his career. This past season his confidence, technique and impact was at full throttle and had 6 sacks playing a rotation role. Showed versatility that he can slide inside in pass rush situations. Gunter was brought in from Arizona, More of a run stopper but can pass rush if need be and also slide inside. Josh Allen was everything we could’ve asked for and more, he had an immediate impact on the team and is someone who the jags can build a defense around. Honestly the problem with this situation is the fact that Allen will now be the only major threat for opposing teams to take account for. He will be doubled teamed even more and if even worse gets hurt, there goes almost all of the jaguars pass rush. Sure Smoot could take over (he has been posting some intense workouts in social media and is working extremely hard) but Smoot is no Allen. Smoot and Gunter’s main value is the fact that they can move around the defensive line and play multiple roles. This defense will not be good if most of the pass rush is dependent on one guy. Smoot is also a 2021 free agent and a good year from him could mean that his price range could go way up. TLDR: Ngakoue will be gone leaving Josh Allen as the only pure threat at EDGE player. Need more help since you can't have enough pass rushers Why Chaisson? Throughout his stay in LSU, K’Lavon Chaisson was seen as that prospect with near infinite potential but just needed to put all those pieces together. He was heading in the right direction but a torn ACL in 2018 halted his development. 2019 we started to see a glimpse of what Chaisson is capable of as he became a serious threat on the EDGE and OLB for the LSU Tigers this past season due to him finally showing his athletic gifts and showing impressive football IQ, in 2019 he was voted 1st team all SEC by the coaches and 2nd team all SEC AP. Especially the second half of the season in which he dominated against elite competition in Clemson, Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma in which he had 5 sacks and was everywhere on the field, he was named defensive MVP of the peach bowl. Has an elite first step and bend off the edge and Chaisson is good vs the run as well with his long, strong arms and his ability to set the edge. This defense was horrid against the run last year and made many roster moves to try and improve on that department. Showed he is very effective in stunts and spin moves. Has control of his body throughout the rush and his motor never stops, so the opposing OTs will have a hard time with his explosiveness, counters which improved in 2019 and his motor. In LSU, wearing the number 18 is a tradition that garners respect, Each season the locker room votes on who gets to use the number 18 which is synonymous with success on and off the field as well as having a selfless attitude. Showing that he's highly respected in the Locker room and also a hard worker. The 2018 ACL injury is scary but looked 100% at the end of the season. Not only can he be an elite pass rusher but has the ability to stop the run and Jam TEs and cover them. Chaisson's elite potential can give the Jags the ability to have multiple fronts on defense. From 4-3 to 3-4 and different sets. Chaisson needs to keep improving his skills and his football IQ. Chaisson will play a lot of snaps but will be used in a variety of ways. Predition: 10 TFLs and 10 sacks and in high consideration of DROY (my final candidates are Chase Young, K’lavon Chaisson and Isaiah Simmons) Round 2 pick 42: WR Laviska Shenault, colorado Why WR? This draft was lauded to be one of the, if not the, best WR classes in history in the NFL. Not only by the quality of WRs but the quantity of NFL worthy WRs coming out. This class had everything from technical route runners, speedsters, physically imposing WRs and explosive after the catch play makers. We ended up seeing multiple WR needy teams select multiple guys in this draft like never before just because of the quality of players that were found later on as the draft went by. For so long during the mid 2010’s the jags had what many people ranked one of the more talented WR groups. Back in the 2018 offseason the Jags faced a decision to either re-sign Allen Robinson or Marqise Lee. The decision of the Jags to re-sign Marqise Lee instead of Allen Robinson has been terrible. Lee has caught 3 passes since signing his new deal and missed 28 games due to injuries meanwhile Allen Robinson is a WR1 with the bears. As of before the draft, Jags WRs look good on paper and GM Dave Caldwell was asked why wide receiver was not addressed in the first round and said basically that they trusted the guys the Jags have and were happy at the moment, the next day the first chance he gets he drafts a WR basically showing everyone what they really felt about the WRs. Currently on the roster, DJ Chark is a legit WR to build around with his improvements from year 1 to year 2, showing improved route running and hands. His connection with Minshew was bar none the best part of the 2019 jags offense. The other guys though are filled with doubts. The biggest problem offensively came when defenses started focusing on removing DJ Chark from the offensive game plan forcing Minshew to target other WRs do something and most of the time no one stepped up (the Saints game was the biggest example of this and Minshews worst game, Conley, Westbrook and Cole couldn't do a thing with Chark double covered by Lattimore and a safety the whole game). Both Chris Conley and DedeWestbrook (next in the depth chart) were inconsistent to say the least and showed that they are not WR2 in the NFL. Both suffered from drops, Westbrook dropped 2 clean TDs vs the titans in the Thursday night game and Conley throughout the season totaling 7 dropped passes. Conley did have 5 TDs in the year but 3 of them came in the last four weeks of the season when the Jags had no chance of going to the playoffs. Keelan Cole was in the dog house to start the season after a BAD 2018 and he finished with barely 370 yds in the season, most of it coming in the last 3 games though we have seen the damage Cole can make in the field. Chark showed he can be a legit WR in this league, the Jags need to give him someone opposite of him who can get rid of some attention towards him who can be a real threat. The depths of the WR group can also improve, the 5th leading WR was Marqise Lee who totaled 3 receptions with 18 yards. 86% of the jags receptions from WRs came from DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley. That needs to be spread out more. Like with the CB group, the Jags have 3 guys with expiring contracts in Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. All of them together will not be back, at most 2 of them and at a cheap price but most likely all 3 will be fighting for one spot in the 2021 roster. There is uncertainty about the future of the position heading into 2020 and 2021 with multiple FAs and need of talent. TLDR: Minshew needs more weapons on offense, Chark needs help so he isn't double teamed every play and there is uncertainty in the future of 3 of the top 4 WRs. Why Shenault? Laviska Shenault is a big play waiting to happen in the NFL. In his 2018 season, in which he was first team all PAC 12, Shenault averaged some insane with 9.6 receptions per game (which led FBS) and 10.9 scrimmage yards per play. At 6’1 and 225lbs he is big for a WR of his size but he is strong, according to the draft broadcast shenault would workout with the offensive linemen, Which in game showed. Shenault was nearly impossible to bring down one on one, In 2018 he was brought down by a solo tackle only 24 times on 109 touches , in 2019, he was brought down by a solo tackle 14 times on 70 touches. Sheanult needed at least 2 defenders to be brought down. He has strong hands and showed almost no problems with drops and contested catches. He is way more athletic than what was seen in the combine (later was proved that he was injured). An athletic specimen on the outside with his strength, speed and quickness. Also worth noting, The jags offense has been one of the least innovative the past seasons with almost no motion, trickery or play action. Shenault played almost every position except QB. Colorado has used Shenault in a variety of ways playing in the slot, outside, as an H-back, TE, RB and even as a wildcat. Shenault can bring a plethora of new plays and schemes that the jags haven’t had before. But at his best is with the ball with his hands and watching him do magic and damage. Durability has been a concern though, 2 straight years of missing games and his playstyle isn't helping to that cause. Also his route running could use some polish. Shenault gives the Jags the potential to have 2 uber athletic WRs in Chark and Shenault on the outside. Prediction: 840 yds and 7 TDs ROUND 3 PICK 73: DT Davon Hamilton, Ohio State WHY DT? The official turning point for the worse for this defense was not when CB Jalen Ramsey was traded, it was when starting DT/NT Marcell Dareus went down with a core muscle injury in the game vs the Bengals and missed the rest of the season. He was having an ok year but was our best run defender by far. Even with him the defense was suspect, especially against the run. The worst game might’ve been the Panthers games. Christian Mccafrey had a field day against the Jags, he got his contract extension due to this game. After Marcel Dareus’ injury, The Jags for 3 straight games allowed over 200 rushing yards, all to division rivals. Embarrassing showings for a defense that once was called best in the NFL in 2017. In 2019, the Jags allowed more than 2200 rushing yards to opposing offenses, the opposing teams scored 23 TDs on the ground (47 total touchdowns), and were ranked 28th in run defense and 24th overall. That is downright pathetic. This defense was pushed around and dominated physically. DTs on the 2019 roster like Abry Jones, Taven Bryan and Dontavious Russell showed that (for my taste) they aren't starter material for the NFL (Dareus was acquired in 2017 via trade because he was an improvement of Jones). Abry Jones is fine as a depth DT but he's not a guy that you can put on the nose day in and day out and have him to hold the line for every down. Former 1st round pick Taven Bryan is someone most Jags fans have either almost or completely given up on. Taven Bryan relies so much on athleticism and cant seem to connect the dots with awareness and football IQ on the field. Most of his highlights are because he just overpowers the offensive linemen or a quick first step but he does get lost in run defense and can’t break out of blocks. Dare I say that he might not be on the team for the 2021 season if no big improvements are seen soon. Russel is a former 7th round pick who might not make the team this season. Well was the pass rush better for the DTs?… no. Between those 3 guys they amassed 4 sacks throughout the year (Calaias and Dawuane smoot did play in pass rush situations on the inside though which had an impact on the times they might’ve been able to get a sack, but still 4 sacks from the DTs is not enough) . Al Woods was brought in via FA, a big run stuffing veteran NT who will anchor the inside but for a short while since he is up there in age and on a 1 year deal. DE Rodney Gunter was brought in as well to play inside and outside and is also a very good run defender (you guys will see a pattern with the defensive draft prospects selected and FAs brought in, most are good vs the run). The Colts have Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack, Texans have a committee of RBs while also Deshaun Watson is a threat to run it as well, and the Titans with the reincarnation of the hulk, Derrick Henry, who seems to always have his best games against the jags. Jags need to shore up the inside of the DL or it will be a very long year. A good DL can make the job easier for LBs, CBs and safeties. I think reporter John Shipley from si.com said it best “The Jacksonville Jaguars knew entering the 2020 NFL Draft that they needed to upgrade the interior of their defensive line. It wasn't a question of if they would do it, but when.” TLDR: After the Dareus injury, the jags couldn't stop the run to save their lives, and need all the help they could get. Jags need more youth on the DL Why Davon Hamilton? It was common knowledge that the jags were basically drooling over Derrick Brown but couldn't get the chance to draft him. I would've been more than fine if the D. Brown pick happened but there are few times when a draft crush you have gets selected by your team (I also wanted Antoine Winfield in the 2nd but it was close), when Jags selected Hamilton I shrieked out of excitement and was, and still am, the most excited member of jaguars. Davon Hamilton was someone who didn't have a high amount of snaps in his first 4 years at Ohio State due to the surplus of talent and rotations in one of the deepest defenses in the nation. Hamilton finally started for his redshirt senior year but played within a heavy rotation and only just under 40% of the total snaps (no DT had more than 400 snaps this past season but 6 DTs had over 200 snaps. OSU had the DTs rotate so much so everyone was fresh at the end and depending on the strategy/team they faced for example Hamilton was used more than normal when OSU faced a heavy run team). Davon Hamilton showed what he can potentially do in the NFL. Even though he had limited snaps his production/snap was impressive. He was mainly a NT eating up double teams but did have snaps at the 3T and had his moments. In his career he recorded 66 tackles, but 20 of them were for loss. That's over 30% of his tackles of his career went for loss and in his final year nearly 40% of his tackles that went for loss, he also had 6 sacks his final year showing he has potential to rush the passer. An above average athlete at 6’4 and 320lbs (recorded most reps at the bench press for DL with 33) who is strong at the point of attack, can engage double teams and be an anchor for a defense. His best years are ahead of him due to limited experience and no injury history. Dave Caldwell compared him to a “baby Al Woods” and will learn from him and others. This pick screamed “We play Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack each twice a year and we need help”. Prediction: 55-60% snaps played. 12 TFLs with 3.5 sacks. WIll get more snaps as the season goes by. ROUND 4 PICK 116: OT/OG The Smoothie King AKA:Ben Bartch, St Johns. WHY OL? Former starting OG for the Jaguars Uche Nwaneri had an AMA in NFL, A jags fan asked him about Gardner Minshew and in it he mentions that the jags offensive line was holding the team down, which every jags fan agreed. This group was frustrating to watch to say the least since it was ranked 26th as a unit by PFF. So many drives were cut short due to a penalty, a missed assignment or just getting stuffed by the defense. The Jags starting OL committed 48 penalties the whole season. This OL showed they were undisciplined and gave Minshew no time whatsoever in the pocket allowing 182 pressures which ranked 10th most in the nfl. The only players I can still see on the jags starting OL in 2021 are Brandon Linder (Good center who wins with technique rather than strength but had an off year with 7 holding calls) and Jawaan Taylor (played better as the season went on but 13 penalties on him is alarming and needs to improve). LT Cam Robinson, LG Andrew Norwell and RG AJ Cann have 1 year to show their worth or they are gone, and the way they played I don't think they are getting signed. Norwell has been a bust of a FA signing, a former all pro with the panthers signed for a record deal and has been awful with the jaguars. Norwell couldn't run block and many times a year he was bull rushed into Minshews face due to bad technique. I don't think jaguars has hated an OL more than Norwell after the Panthers game this season. It got to a point in which articles were written saying that Norwell should be benched. For some reason the Jags have struggled to fill the LG position ever since Vince Manuwai (RIP) played his last season with the Jags in 2010 (former LGs include Will Rackley, Zane Beadles, Mike Brewster, Luke Joeckel, Patrick Omameh, and Andrew Norwell currently) . AJ Cann is one of the worst pass blocking OG in this league and throughout the year replays during the game showed minshew escaping from a DL let through freely by Cann, this might have been Cann’s best year which is depressing to say since he was still was pretty awful when compared to the rest of the NFL, i could go on but it would be repeating myself from last years write up. Cam Robinson, the former 2017 2nd round pick had a really good rookie year but 2018 was cut short by an ACL injury but his recovery took way longer than it normally should have and was pretty bad this past season. Also an upcoming free agent, Cam needs to show his worth or he could be on a new team in no time, yes an argument can be made that he was still recovering from the ACL injury and a hyperextended knee before the 2019 season started. Many people argued about drafting one of the OTs in the 1st round and moving Cam inside to guard will highlight his strengths in run blocking, power and length. I will give Cam this, he might be the one most likely to return out of the 3 due to being the youngest and having an excuse due to the injury. Better play from him can almost guarantee his stay. The Jags lost the trenches in 2019 and it showed, The jags only scored 3 rushing TDs this past season and were dominated when it came to short yard situations (counter argument, Fournette has bad vision which doesn't help). In the goal line this OL couldnt generate any push whatsoever or protect Minshew. Minshew was running for his life. As of the start of the draft, I would consider this OL one of the 10 worst in the league and need help ASAP, especially after additions like Deforest Buckner and Ross Blacklock within the division. Though the coaching staff and GM said they do have confidence in this unit. Will Richardson was the main backup OL who brought value because he could play both tackles and guard but Doug Marrone stated that Richardson will now play LT, he played the first 2 games at LT due to injuries and played very well. TLDR: The OL was a shackle for the team basically having Gardner Minshew running for his life. Also having no real depth and could see a total rebuild in 2021. Why Ben Bartch? Ben Batch’s name was thrown around throughout the offseason. The former standout LT who dominated his competition in the D3 ranks who also looked the part at the senior bowl practices in which he went step for step with some of the best and athletic prospects the D1 had to offer (an injury made him miss the senior bowl game) holding off guys like Jabari Zuniga and Terrel Lewis in some reps. Later on at the combine, the NFL network had him showcase his now infamous smoothie that he made to gain weight. What makes Bartch’s potential very intriguing is the fact that he used to be a TE coming into college but worked out hard, drank that nasty smoothie to gain weight. Bartch at the end gained around 75-80lbs of good weight but at the same time maintained his overall athleticism he had as a TE, which shows because Bartch moves very smoothly and fast. At 6’5 and 310 lbs, Bartch has a lot of room to grow since he still is getting used to a position he's only played for 2 years (nfl.com sums it up perfectly “From a skill standpoint, he's still an undergrad, but on pace for his degree in tackle studies”) and he was able to be a showcase name in the senior bowl. He does have the potential and traits to play OL NFL due to his fast counters, punches, and overall quickness. He does have solid foundations that makes for a good OL in the NFL, which are hard to come with guys coming out of college since OL coaching has seen a dip in quality in the college ranks. The big obstacle will most likely be the game speed. D3 speed is completely different from NFL speed. Bartch might need to get used to it as quickly as possible. Bartch can play outside or inside in this league. Prediction: Cann or Norwell get benched for Bartch mid season
Hello everyone, welcome to Championship Week! FINAL SEC STANDINGS East
Team
SEC
Overall
Georgia*
7-1
11-1
Florida
6-2
10-2
Tennessee
5-3
7-5
South Carolina
3-5
4-8
Kentucky
3-5
7-5
Missouri
3-5
6-6
Vanderbilt
1-7
3-9
West:
Team
SEC
Overall
LSU*
8-0
12-0
Alabama
6-2
10-2
Texas A&M
4-4
7-5
Auburn
5-3
9-3
Miss State
3-5
6-6
Ole Miss
2-6
5-7
Arkansas
0-8
2-10
In the polls:
Team
AP
CP
CFP
CFB
Alabama
9
9
12
11
Auburn
11
12
11
12
Arkansas
NR
NR
NR
NR
Florida
7
7
7
8
Georgia
4
4
4
4
Kentucky
NR
NR
NR
RV
LSU
1
1
1
2
Mississippi State
NR
NR
NR
RV
Missouri
NR
NR
NR
NR
Ole Miss
NR
NR
NR
RV
South Carolina
NR
NR
NR
NR
Tennessee
NR
NR
NR
RV
Texas A&M
NR
NR
NR
RV
Vanderbilt
NR
NR
NR
NR
RIVALRY WEEK REVIEW Whew...what a season. Let's run through the final game for each team.
The Egg Bowl: Urine for a thriller if you watch this one again folks. Don't let tears run down your leg as you watch Ole Miss let their Number One chance at redemption this season get flushed away at the end of the game. Mississippi State beats Ole Miss 21-20 after one of the funniest endings possible for a college football neutral fan. Mississippi State manages to go bowling, while Ole Miss is stuck only at a porcelain bowl. This had major consequences for the staffs of both teams, see below.
Battle Line Rivalry: Missouri won despite trailing Arkansas for a non-insignificant portion of the game. Missouri manages to salvage a .500 season, but the NCAA appeal was denied last week, so they'll be sitting home for the holidays. Going 6-6 with a relatively easy schedule was enough to cost Barry Odom his job with rumors of friction between him and the AD behind the scenes. Arkansas is just happy their nightmare of a season is over, moving out to following plane trackers with more fervor than they did football this season.
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: Georgia had a nightmare of a 2nd quarter, missing a FG, muffing a punt, and fumbling on a play where they lost D'Andre Swift for the game. All this to also say: Georgia beat GT by the biggest margin in series history, never let up a touchdown outside of that muffed punt that gave GT a shortfield, and was able to absolutely toy with the Jackets the rest of the game. They're facing a juggernaut next week, not helped by some of the consequences of this rivalry game, but they finish the season 11-1 for the third year in a row.
Palmetto Bowl: South Carolina was absolutely smoked 38-3 in a game that could've easily had a worse margin. South Carolina wasn't able to do much at all offensively, mustering only 3 points and under 300 yards of offense. They finish 4-8 in a strange year for the Cocks, leading to major changes on their coaching staff.
Governor's Cup: Well, unlike what I said last week, that wasn't competitive at all. What else is there to say besides Lynn Bowden Jr. - Kentucky absolutely thrashes Louisville on the ground, as Bowden sets several school records in a rushing performance for the ages. 284 yards and 4 TDs for Bowden, over 500 yards and 6 TDs in total for Kentucky. Mark Stoops did a hell of a job this season after losing so many pieces from last year and to injury, and has Kentucky finishing with 7 wins for the fourth straight season.
Iron Bowl: A Game of the Year candidate for sure, this game was a collection of everything we love about the sport: Auburn chaos magic, absolutely insane game-changing plays on both sides, Alabama missing FGs, Nick Saban losing his mind on the sideline. Auburn beats Alabama 48-45 in one of the greatest Iron Bowls ever, officially eliminating Alabama from the playoff and turn down the heat on Gus Malzahn significantly. An interesting bowl selection process awaits both teams.
Vandy @ Tennessee: Tennessee took control early and never looked back as they stomped the Dores 28-10, behind the otherworldly 245 yd, 3 TD effort on the ground from Eric Gray. Their first win in the series since 2015 caps off quite the comeback for Jeremy Pruitt's 7-5 Vols, left for dead early in the season. Vanderbilt heads into the offseason at 3-9 with only a single SEC win - Derek Mason is sticking around but don't be surprised to see changes in Nashville.
A&M-LSU: Well I said this game had shootout potential, but I didn't expect a firing squad. LSU absolutely blew the doors of A&M in Death Valley, leading A&M 31-0 at halftime and winning 50-7 over the Aggies. LSU completes their first perfect regular season since 2011, setting up a major clash with Georgia next week. A&M faced the toughest schedule in the country by most metrics, playing 3 different #1 teams this season. They're an intriguing team to examine during bowl selection and entering next season.
Sunshine Showdown: Florida beat FSU 40-17 to cap off another 10-win season. Kyle Trask spread the love around, throwing for 343 yd and 3 TD as 10 different receivers recorded catches. Florida should be in their second straight NY6 bowl game, whether they get the Sugar, Orange, or Cotton will be determined by the result of the SECCG, the CFP committee, and the respective bowls.
SEC Championship Game: From the East: 11-1 (7-1 SEC), #4 Georgia Bulldogs From the West: 12-0 (8-0 SEC), #1 LSU Tigers When and where: 4:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 7, 2019, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA. To be broadcast on CBS. Odds: LSU -7.5, o/u 55: For the 3rd year in a row, Georgia faces a win-and-in scenario vs. a top-2 team in the SEC Championship game. LSU, meanwhile, is here for their first in 8 seasons. This edition is the 4th time Georgia and LSU have met in Atlanta: LSU won in 2003 and 2011 handily on their way to the BCS title game, Georgia won in an upset in 2005. This game should be a real interesting matchup of strengths for both teams, and vulnerabilities as well. LSU's offense, one the most prolific in in SEC history, takes on Georgia's defense, arguably the best in the nation. Georgia hasn't really played an offense of LSU's caliber, while LSU was held to 23 points when playing a similar defense in Auburn, their lowest output of the season. Georgia's defense hasn't let up more than 17 points all season themselves. On the other sides of the ball, both are units that have struggled at times season but are coming off of their strongest performances of the year. LSU's defense, much maligned at times for giving up 38 to Vanderbilt and 37 to Ole Miss, but just held A&M to 7 points. Georgia's offense, the cause of their sole blemish this season in the South Carolina loss and had only broken 30 points vs. two P5 teams this year, but just came off their highest scoring performance vs a P5 team. Georgia's question marks are only exacerbated by RB D'Andre Swift being injured in the GT game (the extent of his injury is not known but he is expected to play) and the loss of their two top WR. Lawrence Cager, Fromm's most reliable target, is out for the seaosn with an ankle injury. Georgia's most talent receiver, George Pickens, will miss the first half of the game due to a fighting ejection against GT. No predictions or further analysis from me, just a comment that this should be a fun one. COACHING CAROUSEL: For many teams, the end of the season has been reached and it is time for changes to be made. For others, their staff members are the subject of rumors and named candidates for poaching elsewhere. Here's a rundown by school:
Arkansas: Arkansas fired Chad Morris earlier this season and is still searching to fill their vacancy. Social media scuttlebutt this week focused on FAU HC Lane Kiffin, but Mike Norvell, Justin Fuente, and Willie Fritz have also been floated in the media.
Georgia: OC James Coley has been circulated as a potential candidate as USF. Georgia fans might want him gone regardless - the obvious potential replacement is former Georgia OC Mike Bobo if he is fired as the HC of Colorado State.
LSU: PGC Joe Brady has already been named for several OC openings this week. Zero chance LSU let's him leave for a college OC gig, but we'll see if he attracts any interest for HC gigs, or from the NFL once their season ends.
Mississippi State: HC Joe Moorhead is officially staying after reaching bowl eligiblity and after the Rutgers job was filled. We'll see if staff changes are to follow.
Missouri: Mizzou fired HC Barry Odom on Saturday after a 6-6 record this season. Mike Norvell and Bryce Harsin have been some of the top names floated for this opening so far.
Ole Miss: In a surprising move, Ole Miss fired HC Matt Luke after a 4-8 season, partly due to the actions at the end of the Egg Bowl. Mike Norvell is the big name floated here, with Harsin, Kiffin, Billy Napier, and Will Healy also rumored names.
South Carolina: Will Muschamp fired S&C coach Jeff Dillman and QB coach Dan Werner, as stripped playing duties from OC Bryan McClendon. Mike Bobo is a potential OC replacement if he is available, Chad Morris and Rhett Lashlee are also coaches that have been floated in media reports.
GUESSING GAMES Well only reauxga answered this week so... Last week: Q. There are four SEC-ACC matchups this week. If you take the results of all 4 games relative to the spread (see above) and add them together, which conference comes out on top? Bonus: predict the actual record of the 4 games. A: UGA -28.5 v. GT: +16.5 SC +27.5 v. Clemson: -7.5 UK -2.5 v. UL: +29.5 UF -17.5 v. FSU: +5.5 Total: SEC +44 in total. reauxga got both parts of the question right here. Q. CBS is notorious for airing some long Iron Bowls. Predict the time at which this game goes final, within 5 minutes. 7:27 PM ET/6:27 PM CT. reauxga got it perfectly, holy shit. Q. Which rivalry game is the closest margin this week? A: Egg Bowl, with a margin of MSU by 1. No one guessed this, but reauxga made the closest one so....points! This week:
Which of Missouri, Arkansas, Ole Miss is the first to fill their open positions? The timing for this is based on official announcements from the school - I will go by Tweet timestamp if it's contentious.
Which are there more of in the SECCG: LSU rushing touchdowns or Georgia passing touchdowns?
Guess which bowls Alabama, Texas A&M, and Tennessee are placed in.
Crowning College Football's 2019 King of Chaos (P5 Only)
I as a college football fan am inspired by the lovely chaos of the game. Every week there's bound to be unexpected outcomes and amazing head-scratching performances by teams. This is an attempt to crown the KING of chaos among all power five teams for 2019. We start with our criteria, three categories were assessed. XXX Chaos Score (How Wrong was the Spread) This is simply looking at, on average, how many points off was the spread from the final result? Logically we can look at the spread for a game as what's "expected" to happen to surely the NCAA king of chaos would constantly be making the pre-game spread look stupid by overperforming or underperforming. This is the most important category. Top Five Most Predictable Teams
Team
Spread was Within Five Pts
Spread was Within Ten Pts
Average Chaos Score
5. Oklahoma State
8
9
7.5
4. Florida
6
8
7.5
3. Texas
7
8
7.0
2. Alabama
4
9
6.9
1. Iowa
6
9
6.4
Top Ten Most Unpredictable Teams
Team
Top Five Weirdest Games
Biggest Whiff by Spread
10. Illinois
17--21--25--27.5--32
(+31) vs Wisc (Wins 24-23)
9. Kansas State
17.5--18--23--28--31.5
(+24.5) vs OK (Wins 48-41)
8. Syracuse
14.5--15.5--34--41.5--53.5
(+10.5) vs Duke (Wins 49-6)
7. Kansas
19--22--23--41--44
(+20) vs BC (Wins 48-24)
6. Duke
19.5--23.5--30.5--37.5--53.5
(-10.5) vs SYR (Loses 49-6)
5. Miami
21--22--25--25.5--26.5
(-20.5) vs FIU (Loses 30-24)
4. Ohio State
22--24--24--27.5--32.5
(-38.5) vs Miami(OH) (Wins 76-5)
3. Wisconsin
18--27--30--32--39
(-10) vs USF (Wins 39-0)
2. Virginia Tech
21--21--24--37.5--38.5
(-6.5) vs GT (Wins 45-0)
1. Maryland
29.5--41.5--42--48--52.5
(+6.5) vs Penn St (Loses 56-0)
As you can clearly see this shows us the teams that spread could almost never figure out. This metric alone will not give us a college football chaos king by itself because we can all agree that the only thing "chaotic" about Ohio State and Maryland is that they would win and lose by huge margins. A true chaos king also scores highly in the next two factors I considered. XXX How Often was the Spread Right? A true king of chaos in the NCAA finds a way to lose when they are the favorite and win despite being the underdog as regularly as possible. Team that can master this craft of confusing the crap out of their fanbase truly bless us. Top Fifteen Teams Without Drama
TEAM
Record As Favorite
Record As Underdog
Lone Surprise
15. Texas
7--1
0--4
(-1) vs TCU (Loses 37-27)
14. Minnesota
9--0
1--2
(+6.5) vs PSU (Wins 31-26)
13. Indiana
7--0
1--4
(+2.5) vs NEB (Wins 27-24)
12. Penn State
10--1
0--1
(-6.5) vsMINN (Loses 31-26)
11. Texas A&M
7--1
0--4
(-4.5) vs AUB (Loses 28-20)
10. Florida
9--0
1--2
(+3) vs AUB (Wins 24-13)
9. Rutgers
1--0
1--10
(+7.5) vs Liberty (W 44-34)
8. Oklahoma
12--1
0--0
(-24.5) vs KSU (Loses 48-41)
7. Georgia
11--1
0--1
(-20.5) vs SC (Loses 20-17)
6. Wisconsin
10--1
0--2
(-31) vs ILL (Loses 24-23)
5. LSU
12--0
1--0
(+6) vs ALA (Wins 46-41)
4. Iowa
9--0
0--3
N/A
3. Michigan
9--0
0--3
N/A
2. Clemson
13--0
0--0
N/A
1. Ohio State
13--0
0--0
N/A
The ever consistent Big 10 has 8 of the top 15 and 3 of the 4 teams with no surprises all season. Now we get to the fun part with the teams that the spread was a glorified coin toss. Top Ten Teams Spread Had No Chance Against
TEAM
Record as Favorite
Record as Underdog
Biggest Surprise
10. Illinois
3--2
3--4
(+31) vs WISC (Wins 24-23)
9. Colorado
1--2
4--5
(+14.5) vs UW (Wins 20-14)
8. Tennessee
3--2
4--3
(-24.5) vs GSU (Loses 38-30)
7. UCLA
1--3
3--5
(+19) vs WSU (Wins 67-63)
6. Boston College
2--2
4--4
(-20) vs KU (Loses 48-24)
5. Kansas State
3--1
5--3
(+31.5) vs OK (Wins 48-41)
4. Virginia Tech
5--3
3--1
(-2.5) vs Duke (Loses 45-10)
3. Arizona State
3--3
4--2
(+16) vs MSU (Wins 10-7)
2. California
2--2
5--3
(+8.5) vs WSU (Wins 33-20)
1. Miami
4--5
2--1
(-20.5) vs FIU (Loses 30-24)
So now we see the teams that could not decide whether they were bad or good but there's one more recipe to chaos that we are missing. The final category incorporates one of the most obvious elements of CFB chaos. XXX Point Difference (How Close Were the Games Usually?) We all know that the most thrilling upsets of the season (think Oklahoma and Wisconsin) and the most incredible near upsets that we saw (Clemson) were all games decided in the final seconds. A true king of chaos not only surprises us by oveunder performing, but they also have a knack for playing close games against every opponent. True chaos teams literally don't care who's on the other sideline, they're going to battle to a close win or tough loss either way. In this category I only cared about close games, so I took the difference between the score and squared it. I capped it at 14 points to really reward teams that kept games inside two possessions. So losing 21-7 and 62-7 meant the same thing. Top Three Most Boring Seasons
Team
Average Win
Average Loss
One Possession Games
3. Clemson
47--11
X
1
2. Rutgers
46--28
38--7
0
1. Ohio State
49--13
X
0
Top Ten Most Cardiac Arrests From Fans
Team
Average Win
Average Loss
One Possession Games
10. Texas
42--26
33--25
6
9. California
26--18
28--12
6
8. Colorado
31--24
37--18
7
7. TCU
39--18
32--24
7
6. Iowa
28--12
17--12
7
5. Iowa State
42--22
29--25
6
4. Miami
32--12
30--24
8
3. Arizona State
25--16
33--25
7
2. Pittsburgh
27--21
23--11
8
1. North Carolina
35--17
32--28
9
Three of the top four are from the ACC where chaos reigns supreme. Three of the top ten are also from the famous Pac-12 with its legendary Pac-12 After Dark. Also the state of Iowa just loves nail-biters this year. North Carolina was the only P5 school with 9 out of its 12 games being one possession final scores. Now we compile our three factors to create an official top ten chaos teams in the NCAA P5. You can play around and weight these factors differently but I ultimately stuck with the first category as being most important. How far "off" the final score was from what was expected to happen is still the most important thing, so it was weighted at 50% with the other two categories at 25%. I'm incredibly pleased with the final top ten list and I'd love to share it with you. If you want a spoiler for number one then you might notice just one school made a top ten appearance on all THREE categories. XXX NUMBER TEN: TCU
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-55) vs Arkansas Pine-Bluff
39--7 (W)
9
(-3) vs Purdue
34--13 (W)
12
(-7.5) vs SMU
38--41 (L)
3
(-15) vs Kansas
51--14 (W)
10
(+5) vs Iowa State
24--49 (L)
11
(-3.5) vs Kansas State
17--24 (L)
4
(+1) vs Texas
37--27 (W)
8
(+2) vs Oklahoma State
27--34 (L)
7
(+2.5) vs Baylor
23--29 (L)
6
(-3.5) vs Texas Tech
33--31 (W)
5
(+18) vs Oklahoma
24--28 (L)
2
(-13.5) vs West Virginia
17--20 (L)
1
The fact that TCU's LEAST shocking result was blowing out Purdue as a 3 point favorite show a lot. One TCU was able to destroy Kansas, knock off Texas, and nearly upset Oklahoma. Meanwhile the same TCU team struggled against SMU, sucked against Iowa State, and then choked against West Virginia with bowl eligibility on the line. Here we have a 5 and 7 team that managed to almost defeat Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State...Incredible. XXX NUMBER NINE: CALIFORNIA
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-17) vs UC Davis
27--13 (W)
12
(+13) vs Washington
20--19 (W)
1
(-14) vs North Texas
23--17 (W)
5
(+2.5) vs Ole Miss
28--20 (W)
6
(-4) vs Arizona State
17--24 (L)
3
(+21.5) vs Oregon
7--17 (L)
8
(-11) vs Oregon State
17--21 (L)
2
(+21) vs Utah
0--35 (L)
11
(+8.5) vs Washington State
33--20 (W)
7
(+4) vs USC
17--41 (L)
10
(+2.5) vs Stanford
24--20 (W)
4
(+1) vs UCLA
28--18 (W)
9
Outside of an easy win over UC Davis and a clear loss to Utah, everything else on this schedule is a wild ride. There was one California team that pulled upsets over Washington and Washington State, but there was also a Cal team that was crushed by USC and stunned by Oregon State. XXX NUMBER EIGHT: IOWA STATE
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-23) vs Northern Iowa
29--26 (W)
1
(+1.5) vs Iowa
17--18 (L)
9
(-18) vs Louisiana Monroe
72--20 (W)
4
(-2.5) vs Baylor
21--23 (L)
6
(-5) vs TCU
49--24 (W)
10
(-9.5) vs West Virginia
38--14 (W)
12
(-7.5) vs Texas Tech
34--24 (W)
11
(-11) vs Oklahoma State
27--34 (L)
3
(+14.5) vs Oklahoma
41--42 (L)
2
(-7) vs Texas
23--21 (W)
5
(-25) vs Kansas
41--31 (W)
7
(-5) vs Kansas State
17--27 (L)
7
Iowa State fans were already confused from week one with a near embarrassment to Northern Iowa. The next week ISU somehow turned it around but still lost by one to Iowa. In back-to-back games this ISU team lost as big favorite to Oklahoma State and then nearly upset Oklahoma as big underdogs. Every week was a battle for this team with the 5th closest games in the P5. XXX NUMBER SEVEN: NEBRASKA
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-35.5) vs South Alabama
35--21 (W)
10
(-4) vs Colorado
31--34 (L)
4
(-14) vs North Illinois
44--8 (W)
9
(-13) vs Illinois
42--38 (W)
2
(+17) vs Ohio State
7--48 (L)
8
(-7.5) vs Northwestern
13--10 (W)
5
(+7.5) vs Minnesota
7--34 (L)
11
(-2.5) vs Indiana
31--38 (L)
6
(-4) vs Purdue
27--31 (L)
3
(+14.5) vs Wisconsin
21--37 (L)
12
(-5) vs Maryland
54--7 (W)
1
(+4.5) vs Iowa
24--27 (L)
7
While we all remember the helpless Nebraska team that lost to Colorado, nearly lost to Illinois, and lost to Purdue, this Cornhuskers squad had a knack for finding close games and ended the season by crushing Maryland and nearly shocking Iowa. This is the third Big12 entrant. XXX NUMBER SIX: BOSTON COLLEGE
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(+4.5) vs Virginia Tech
35--28 (W)
4
(-33.5) vs Richmond
45--13 (W)
12
(-20) vs Kansas
24--48 (L)
1
(-8) vs Rutgers
30--16 (W)
11
(+5) vs Wake Forest
24--27 (L)
7
(+4) vs Louisville
39--41 (L)
6
(+3.5) vs NC State
45--24 (W)
8
(+35) vs Clemson
7--59 (L)
9
(+3) vs Syracuse
58--27 (W)
3
(-2.5) vs Florida State
31--38 (L)
5
(+20.5) vs Notre Dame
7--40 (L)
10
(+8.5) vs Pittsburgh
26--19 (W)
2
It was an incredibly frustrating season for Boston College but they squeezed out six wins to still be bowl eligible. There was one BC squad that was able to win as an underdog against Va Tech, NC State, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile the same team shockingly lost by 24(!) to Kansas, and lost three nail-biters to Wake Forest, Louisville, and FSU. XXX NUMBER FIVE: KANSAS
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-12) vs Indiana State
24--17 (W)
7
(-7) vs Coastal Carolina
7--12 (L)
4
(+20) vs Boston College
48--24 (W)
2
(+4.5) vs West Virginia
24--29 (L)
8
(+15) vs TCU
14--51 (L)
10
(+32.5) vs Oklahoma
20--45 (L)
11
(+21) vs Texas
48--50 (L)
1
(+6.5) vs Texas Tech
37--34 (W)
5
(+5) vs Kansas State
10--38 (L)
9
(+17.5) vs Oklahoma State
13--31 (L)
12
(+25) vs Iowa State
31--41 (L)
6
(+14) vs Baylor
6--61(L)
3
Here at number five with Kansas things start getting crazy. This is the third Big12 entry on this list. Kansas had a rough season and they had multiple weak showings this season. Almost losing to Indiana State, actually losing to Coastal Carolina, and being dominated by TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor were all low points. Yet what made Kansas so chaotic was somehow that same team crushed Boston College, nearly stunned Texas, battled against Iowa State, and then scored their only conference win over Texas Tech. XXX NUMBER FOUR: ILLINOIS
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-18) vs Akron
42--3 (W)
9
(-21.5) vs UConn
31--23 (W)
5
(-7) vs Eastern Michigan
31--34 (L)
3
(+13) vs Nebraska
38--42 (L)
4
(+14) vs Minnesota
17--40 (L)
10
(+24.5) vs Michigan
25--42 (L)
12
(+31) vs Wisconsin
24--23 (W)
1
(+9.5) vs Purdue
24--6 (W)
6
(-19) vs Rutgers
38--10 (W)
10
(+14) vs Michigan State
37--34 (W)
2
(+15.5) vs Iowa
10--19 (L)
8
(-6) vs Northwestern
10--29 (L)
7
Illinois had such a season turnaround. This is the second Big10 team so far and they started the season with a weak performance to UConn and upset loss to EMU. A four game losing streak setup a lost season for the Fighting Illini until BOOM out of nowhere one of the biggest upsets of the year over Wisconsin. They backed it up with another monster win over Purdue as an underdog. Then as a two touchdown underdog against Michigan State they rallied again. Then it swung back in the other direction with an unexpected dud against Northwestern to end the year. XXX NUMBER THREE: KANSAS STATE
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-20.5) vs Nicholls State
49--14 (W)
11
(-24) vs Bowling Green
52--0 (W)
8
(+6.5) vs Mississippi State
31--24 (W)
3
(+4) vs Oklahoma State
13--26 (L)
12
(+1) vs Baylor
12--31 (L)
10
(+3.5) vs TCU
24--17 (W)
5
(+24.5) vs Oklahoma
48--41 (W)
1
(-5) vs Kansas
38--10 (W)
9
(+7) vs Texas
24--27 (L)
6
(-13.5) vs West Virginia
20--24 (L)
2
(+2.5) vs Texas Tech
30--27 (W)
4
(+5) vs Iowa State
27--17 (W)
7
The fourth Big 12 school here also manufactured one of the biggest upsets of the year. There was a clear Top-25 Kansas State that destroyed Kansas, handled Mississippi State, took down TCU and Iowa State, and then stunned Oklahoma. There were also disappointments against Texas and especially West Virginia but this KSU squad just kept overperforming week after week. XXX NUMBER TWO: VIRGINIA TECH
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-4.5) vs Boston College
28--35 (L)
7
(-29.5) vs Old Dominion
31--17 (W)
11
(-21.5) vs Furman
24--17 (W)
5
(-2.5) vs Duke
10--45 (L)
4
(+14) vs Miami
42--35 (W)
2
(-28) vs Rhode Island
34--17 (W)
12
(+3.5) vs North Carolina
43--41 (W)
6
(+17.5) vs Notre Dame
20--21 (L)
1
(+2) vs Wake Forest
36--17 (W)
10
(-6.5) vs Georgia Tech
45--0 (W)
3
(-4) vs Pittsburgh
28--0 (W)
9
(-2.5) vs Virginia
30--39 (L)
8
Virginia Tech had an insane start to the season. First they lose to Boston College, then they struggled as big favorites over Old Dominion, then they nearly lose to Furman, and cap it off with an embarrassment against Duke. Then as big underdogs to Miami they scored a win. The season turned around with a late win over UNC, nearly shocking Notre Dame, DOMINATING Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh. Then right at the end a loss to Virginia. XXX NUMBER ONE: MIAMI
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(+7) vs Florida
20--24 (L)
8
(-4.5) vs North Carolina
25--28 (L)
6
(-41) vs Bethune-Cookman
63--0 (W)
10
(-30.5) vs Central Michigan
17--12 (W)
1
(-14) vs Virginia Tech
35--42 (L)
4
(-2.5) vs Virginia
17--9 (W)
9
(-18) vs Georgia Tech
21--28 (L)
3
(+6) vs Pittsburgh
16--12 (W)
5
(+2.5) vs Florida State
27--10 (W)
11
(-7) vs Louisville
52--27 (W)
12
(-20.5) vs FIU
24--30 (L)
2
(-9.5) vs Duke
17--27 (L)
7
Truly nobody was king in all three categories quite like Miami. This is a Miami team that made absolutely no sense. On one hand they almost beat Florida, BUT then they lost to NC, BUT then they smoked Bethune-Cookman, BUT then they barely escaped with a win against Central Michigan and lost as big favorites to Virginia Tech, BUT then they turned it around with a close win over Virginia ONLY to suck again against Georgia Tech BUT THEN another turnaround to upset Pittsburgh AND Florida State as underdogs. All of this culminates in taking a three game winning streak and somehow choking to FIU and Duke in back to back weeks. Insane season of ups and downs (but mostly downs) for Miami they are team Chaos. XXX Top Twenty Team Chaos Rankings
Team
Chaos Rank (64 Tms)
Spread Correct?
Close Game (64 Tms)
Final Score
20. Washington State
24
9 out of 12
27
63
19. Purdue
34
7 out of 12
16
63
18. Syracuse
8
9 out of 12
58
64
17. Colorado
39
6 out of 12
8
64
16. Missouri
17
8 out of 12
44
66
15. Pittsburgh
36
8 out of 12
2
66
14. Maryland
1
10 out of 12
50
67
13. Tennessee
23
6 out of 12
36
67
12. UCLA
18
6 out of 12
37
70
11. Duke
6
8 out of 12
52
71
10. TCU
26
8 out of 12
7
73
9. California
31
5 out of 12
9
73
8. Iowa State
22
9 out of 12
5
73
7. Nebraska
15
9 out of 12
15
75
6. Boston College
13
6 out of 12
35
76
5. Kansas
7
9 out of 12
23
78
4. Illinois
10
7 out of 12
20
82
3. Kansas State
9
6 out of 12
11
88
2. Virginia Tech
2
6 out of 12
25
88
1. Miami
5
5 out of 12
4
95
As I was putting this together I thought of some improvements to the model and some other things to research but I loved getting to share this and I hope you enjoyed it. If this gets enough love I'll go through and look at G5 teams as well as releasing my data that I collected.
Why the Gators will win the National Championship.
Why the Gators will win the National Championship... Thoughts on the team overall. Do you remember your jump from a freshman to a sophomore? Remember how big the difference was with your confidence and skills? That's this team under Dan Mullen. The fact is, there are not many 5th year seniors anymore. So although there is maturity to be gained, the biggest jump is going to be from 1 to 2. I think that gap has been reached this summer and the team is going to be different than when you saw her before. That's right, I'm talking about you Sue. Our schedule, while tough, is advantageous for us. We got 1 more week of practices than everyone else, and 3 bye weeks. Give Dan time to prepare and he is nasty, he is going to have plenty of it this year. Before anyone starts yelling, of course if we get an injury to a star we will be in trouble. So will most other teams. Stop watching ESPN, their analysis is garbage these days. Bear says Florida under 9 wins. You can take your fat ass off the TV and pick those high school games you turd burglar. Positions Coach Dan Mullen and why he is a Wizard. I'm not saying Dan is the master and Urban is the Padawan, I'm sure Urban is better at some things. But I can only use the data given. After this year, we will know the truth. How long were Dan and Urban together? Whats their MO? Seems to me like they both know each others playbook. The spread option offense is has been revitalized since they have come along, and all teams have some variation in their playbook. They have it in their playbook because its the best, and Dan and Urban are the wizards of the spread. They run the spread in the most insane form. Lets look at some previous records. This will focus on the Dan\Urban Spread system. I know Urban was the coach, but the points I'm trying to make are 1. Who is the better coach? Urban has the name recognition, but if Dan had been the head coach at Bowling Green, would it have been different? 2. Even if Urban was the mastermind, Dan is the person who knows the blueprint. Bowling Green 8-3 first year, then 9-3 (QB coach) Utah 10-3 first year, undefeated the next year. (QB Coach) Florida 9-3 first year, natty second year. (OC) Miss St. 5-7 first year, 9-4 second year. (HC) QB's whom Dan Mullen has coached - Alex Smith, Brian Johnson(He beat Bama), Josh Harris, Chris Leak, Tim Tebow, Dax Prescott, Nick Fitzgerald, Felipe Franks.... The second year in the Dan\Urban system of coaching seems to have huge effects and will most likely win the Natty. Dan couldn't do it at Miss St, but who could? He Improved by 4 wins his second year, and if he does that this year, we will be 14-0.... QB Felipe Franks is the man, and if he stays for his senior year he will win the Heisman. Unfortunately, the Heisman race is a popularity contest as well as leaning toward high stats. Felipe is in an amazing offense that is 50-50 Run pass, so its going to be hard for him to get those numbers that other contenders will have. That being said, he will get name recognition this year after winning the natty, and be on the short list next year. Pat Dooly talked to me and said he thinks he will be top 5 in the Heisman voting after the Miami blowout. Trask - Dan needs a solid backup so that he can take risks with his offense. Trask is that guy. If Franks kills someone by running them over and is suspended for a game or two, I wont be worried. Jones - I cant wait until the second quarter of the Miami blowout to see how he plays. RB Lemichael Perine - All purpose back. He is going to explode this year. Last year it was kind of a toss up between him and Scarlett, but I think Perine pulled ahead late last year, and that will continue this year. Remember how Benny Snell would not let his team lose last year? What do you think Perine is going to do as a senior? His pass blocking is going to be much improved, which will help the Oline. Malik Davis - I have been waiting a long time to see what greatness comes out of Davis. We will see very soon. Dameon Pierce - Guy comes out of the hole like someone is burning down his house. As good as everyone else is, he will force himself in the playing time mix and make good use of his carries. Iverson Clement - I don't have much comment on his yet, but will be watching here also. WR (FREAKS!) Do you think QB's in college have a lot of opportunity to grow together like this group has? Chemistry is what is going to open the gator offense. These guys are going to be on point and be reading each others thoughts. Grimes 6-5 (WHAT) 214Lbs Jefferson 6-2 197Lbs Hammond 6-0 194Lbs Swain 6-0 199Lbs Copeland 6-0 192Lbs Tyrie 6-2 205Lbs Toney 5_11 194Lbs Toney and Copeland combines make a Percy Harvin. Grimes and Jefferson combined make a Randy Moss. Hammond, Swain and Tyrie together form VOLTRON. What is this a basketball team where everyone is Lebron? These guys are going to put the hurt on some fools. There isn't a receiver on the roster under 6Ft tall. You may think the O Line is inexperienced, but the magic of the spread is that we can run or throw outside to the WR's, whom are huge and great at blocking. They will also be facing undersized cornerbacks all year. Don't know much about Marks Wells and Weston yet, but I'm sure they will get some good reps as well. TE Pitts and Krull are going to add meat to the WR position and the Oline. CB CJ Henderson and Marco Wilson. Best CB duo in the country hands down. The great thing about this is how much blitzing we will be able to do. When you can leave your corners on an island for 60 minutes, its real easy to cause disruption. 247 sports ranks CJ the 19 player in the nation ( https://247sports.com/college/florida/Article/Florida-Gators-Football-SIcom-ranks-CJ-Henderson-No-19-player-in-the-nation-133613088/) When Wilson was a freshman, people though he might be better than CJ. Injuries have derailed those predictions so far, but what if he ends up being better and we have two top 10 draft picks at cornerback? Has that ever happened before? DLine Grantham smiled when someone asked if the line would be better this year. This unit will have a LOT of time to get those coverage sacks. They will only need a LITTLE of it. This is probably one of the top 10, if not top 5 Dlines this season. I actually cant believe that they were left off the top 10 lists. The disrespect here is undeniable. At least Athalon is still in the biz of making some truth. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-top-30-defensive-lines-2019 LB\Star David Reese anyone? He probably would be starting in the NFL if he went in the draft last year. He wont go high in the draft, but 10 years from now he will be starting every game, cause he is solid. Burney is going to be an upgrade over Joseph, who was drafted in the 5th round. If he left for the draft right after this season I would guess 3rd round. If he stays for his senior season I would say he would be pushing 1st round grades. He is 6-2 222 as a sophomore. I wont talk about the rest of the group, aside to say when the above two leave, I'm not going to have much to worry about. Oline Hevesy thinks this is the best offense he has coached. That includes the Tebow Harvin years. Let me ask you this. If your at work and write a shitty report, are you going to tell everyone its the best report ever? Maybe if your Jim Mcelface, but not if your a good coach. This Oline is going to surprise everyone. These are not the same players who blocked each other during the GA Southern game. One of our lineman is names Stone Forsythe. He sounds like a civil war general, and looks like he should be playing hulk in the avengers. I feel like if I tried to shake Felipe's hand at fan day Brett Heggie would pull out my spleen. Nick Buchanan had 12 starts on a team that ranked 20th in the country in sacks allowed. Also on the academic honor roll Christopher Bleich - This is the spot you should be most surprised by. Jean Delance - Rated 58 over 41 snaps on Pro Football focus. Will improve Read this in depth article by Donald Trump superfan Will Miles https://www.readandreaction.com/2019/06/16/is-floridas-offensive-line-really-a-weak-spot-for-2019/ Right now most people think our Oline will be average at best. What if they are excellent? How does that change your opinion of the offense? Special Teams Evan can hit a 60 yarder, not much else to say except that in close games, we will always have the edge. Tommy Townsend is a Redshirt Senior who can boot the ball 900 yards. Field position advantage in every matchup. He will win the Ray Guy award. Games Saturday Aug. 24 vs Miami (FL) Hurricanes Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL 7:00pm ET ESPN There isn't much to this game. The talent levels are in the same ballpark, and the teams almost have the same strengths. The decider here is going to be Felipe. With both our offensive line and theirs younger than both teams would like, trust the veteran quarterback. On top of that, new OC with a defensive minded head coach, we have all heard that one before. Matchup issues - Miami's starting CB's are much smaller that our guys. Trajon Bandy is 5-9 and 190LBS. Do you think he can hold up an entire game against a 6-5 214LBS Grimes? On the other side is Blades jr, who while bigger 6'1 185Lbs , is still not a match. Quarterman will give us the most problems, but he will tire as I'm sure Dan is going to put a hat on him every play. After the first series, he is going to have to reevaluate if he wants to risk his career trying to tackle the crazy strong Florida players all game. 42 - 13 Florida Edit:Got the W! Saturday Aug. 31 OFF Saturday Sep. 7 UT Martin Skyhawks Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL 7:30pm ET ESPNU or SECN Alt. I predict a win 62-0 Florida Edit - 2 Great week, Felipe with the highest completion percentage in Florida History. I love how the fans have started to come around. 15 Sacks after 2 games, Felipe is at 78% completion percentage, 524 yards, 4 TD's and 2 Picks. Second on the team in rushing. Rushing attack really worries me, however, last year the run game started a little slow, just image what this team is going to be like when the running game comes around. Saturday Sep. 14 at Kentucky Wildcats Kroger Field, Lexington, KY 7:00pm ET ESPN Kentucky will be good again, but they wont have the transcendent players they had last year that put us away. Matchup problems CB's Cedrick Dort is 5'11 and 176 Brandon Echols is 5'11 174. With the improvement Felipe has made, and very undersized corners, the Gators will run, and pass all over them. 42 - 10 Florida Edit3- Come from behind win, but its more like we took everything kentucky had, and proved we were the better team after 4 quarters. They were a 10 win team last year, and I think will be ranked in the Top 25 before seasons end. Especially with the garb at the bottom of the polls now. Saturday Sep. 21 Tennessee Volunteers Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL We beat the Vol's last year without much problem. This years team is better. The Oline will really be shining by now. Matchup Problems CB - Bryce Thompson 5'11 181Lbs and Alontae Taylor 6'0 194Lbs. Are you sensing a pattern? Dan's receivers block well, or they don't play. Copeland in the end around for 90 yards every play. 48 - 14 Florida EDIT 3 - Trask Trask Trask. The offense looks much more consistent with trask at the helm. My Natty prediction is still going. Oline isnt shining, but they are starting to push people around a little. Remember Tenesse's D line is more talented than ours as far as star rating. My scores are wrong, but the wins still count. Auburn didn't look unbeatable against Texas A&M. Saturday Sep. 28 Towson Tigers Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL I predict another large win. 62 - 0 Florida Edit 4 - W Saturday Oct. 5 16 Auburn Tigers (HC) Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL This one has people worried. Auburn has the best DLine in college football, and will put pressure on Felipe all day. What your forgetting is that gus mahlzan will be fired before this game. They are going to lose to Oregon, Texas A@M, and Mississippi State before they get to us. Edit 4 - W Matchup Problems CB (AGAIN) Javaris Davis 5'10 180, and Noah Igbinoghene 5'11 200. 27- 10 Florida Saturday Oct. 12 at 6 LSU Tigers Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA Ed Orgeron is a motivating coach, he has a lot of fire. One thing he doesn't have is the smarts. I know everyone thinks this will be a close matchup, but Dan is going to trick Ed so bad he is going to take off his pants. Don't give me gold now, wait until you see it on live TV. 35 - 3 Florida Edit 4 - L. At the beginning of the season I did not think the LSU offense would change so much. That being said, we could have won on a neutral field and zu and gre back. Maybe a neutral field in Atlanta? Saturday Oct. 19 at South Carolina Gamecocks Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC The great thing about going undefeated is that there is much less chance we will be sleeping for any game this year. I think Felipe knows last year we slept through the first part of this game, and he and the rest of the team see what it takes to win week in and week out. 42 - 9 Florida Edit 4 - W Saturday Oct. 26 OFF Edit 4 - Moving up in the polls after the OKlahoma loss. Saturday Nov. 2 vs 3 Georgia Bulldogs TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL 3:30pm ET CBS This is going to be a ESPN instant classic. I know everyone will think this Hubris, but Dan is a better coach than Kirby. You cant hide Kirby's weaknesses. Remember when Mark Richt was winning 10 games every year? Florida was never afraid, because in the biggest games, Kirby, like mark, chokes. You will find that out again this year. A mismanaged timeout on Kirby's side, and a new wrinkle on Dan's side decide the game. 35-30 Florida Edit 4 - I'm going to wait until we win to start throwing it in some doubters faces. Saturday Nov. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL Good running back, Ke'Shawn Vaughn will not be able to get much daylight. 37-6 Florida Saturday Nov. 16 at Missouri Tigers Faurot Field, Columbia, MO I know I know, we have been smoked by them recently. Florida has some real problems with Accurate passers like Drew Lock. He went 24-32 and is in the NFL now. Both Corners will be healthy for this game, unlike last year when Henderson was banged up and Wilson was lost for the season. This is going to be a revenge win. 42-7 Saturday Nov. 30 Florida State Seminoles Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL Willie Taggart will be the second coach we see this year that wont make it to the game. Unfortunately for us that means the Baylor Raper will take over and he knows offense. It will be a good first half, but we are going to put it away fairly quickly. 35 - 21 Saturday Dec. 7 SEC Championship - Bama Vs Florida Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA We will beat Bama here. I'll tell you why. Saban has been exposed by Dabo, and Dan has taken notes. He knows what we need to do to win and he will find the weakness and exploit it. Lot of people put so much into recruiting, but whats the difference in a 4.2 and a 4.3? We have enough talent, that when put in a position to win, we will. 23-20 Florida Edit 2 - I know I left out a game, but, how am I supposed to know who we play in the playoff? Natty vs Clemson Dabo is the same type of coach as Dan. He is a tactician who also thinks strategically. He has better recruits. If we are both 13-0 at this point, who do you think will win? Do you think after running the gauntlet we would lose? 47-40 Florida In conclusion (TL:DR) Top 15 defense at least. Top 10 offense after someone figures out Dan Mullen can coach. The only team we will have an issue with is Clemson. I think we are close enough that the emotion of the national title game will keep us close, and Dan will find a way to win. 47-40 in single overtime. P.S. Wait to give me gold until after the season. P.S.S I was right about Felipe last year. https://www.reddit.com/FloridaGators/comments/7axqez/things_to_remember_about_recent_florida/
Probabilistic Predictive Computer Rankings of CFB after Week 14
This system is meant to be predictive. Each team's rating corresponds to their expected scoring margin against an average opponent. So if your team has a rating of +14, that means they'd be expected to be 14 points better than the average FBS team on a neutral field. Subtract two teams' ratings to get the expected spread if they were to play each other, with 4 points given to the home team.
Prediction Accuracy:
I don't trust the rating system during the first half of the season, so I only started tracking accuracy with week 7. Below is the breakdown of the predictions (straight-up and against the spread) for this week and for weeks 7+:
Accuracy
vs Spread
Straight up
Mean Error (SU)
Week 7
47.8%
61.5%
13.579
Week 8
43.6%
73.8%
14.202
Week 9
56.3%
65.5%
13.903
Week 10
54.5%
78.7%
13.698
Week 11
46.5%
56.3%
12.996
Week 12
53.5%
74.5%
12.874
Week 13
49%
80.7%
11.863
Week 14
54.4%
81.3%
11.671
Average
50.6%
72%
13.027
We had a great week in all respects, so now we're back just above 50% ATS. That's not particularly great, but the mean error has shrunk pretty much every week, and at this point is very strong. Here's a summary of the actual average margins for games, grouped by expected margin:
Expected Margin
Game Count
Accuracy
Avg Expected Margin
Avg Actual Margin
0 to 10
200
57%
4.6
4.3
10 to 20
138
79%
14.7
12.8
20 to 30
62
91.9%
24.9
21
30 to 40
24
91.7%
33.9
29
40 to 50
9
100%
45.6
36.3
This is showing that the margins are consistently closer than my predictions are letting on. This seems to be a persistent issue, so I'll be working on re-calibrating the ratings during the offseason to address it. Still working out the logic of how to best account for it, though.
The model does this with an iterative approach, with the result of each prior iteration feeding in as the starting point of the next iteration. During each iteration, the model looks at each team's results by scoring margin in each of its games against FBS opponents, using the opponents' rating from the previous iteration. Then it calculates the probability that a team with rating R would have that result in that game. It assigns such a probability for all possible ratings from -100 to +100 for each game. Then, using those results, it calculates the probability that a team with rating R would achieve the full season results that the team has achieved. After that, it uses Bayes' Theorem to assign a probability that each team is rated at each rating from -100 to +100. Finally, it takes the expected value of the teams' rating (i.e. the weighted average of the ratings using the probabilities as the weights). This gives the final result.
lsu vs clemson predictions against the spread video
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Clemson vs LSU Picks and Predictions College Football ...
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