Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.		Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.		Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.		Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.		Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.		Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.		Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.		Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.		Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.		Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.		Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.		Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.		Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.		Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.		Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.		Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.		Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.		Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.		Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.		49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.		Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.		Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.		Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.		Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.		Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.		Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.		Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.		Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.		Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.		Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.		Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

Background

The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion... you know, lets pause and put that in perspective. Video games - the entire idea of electronic games you play, whether on your phone, computer, or dedicated console - have a yearly revenue of $44 billion. That means the NFL makes about 40% of what video games - the entire fucking industry - does worldwide.
It is also deliciously petty. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football. That means they're essentially owned by super rich fans who are not used to anyone telling them no. These owner superfans can fire people, demand trades, etc. And do. Imagine if you picked your industry, and had it run by a bunch of outsiders who knew very little about it, but had vast amounts of money and bad tempers. Oh and unlike European football with relegations, there's nothing to remove a team or force them to be competitive, meaning people making bad decisions can just keep making the bad decisions.
The result is you could probably make a subreddit just called "Gridiron football drama" and it'd be populated as fuck. Therefore I won't go into the minor things - the players who robbed a bunch of people but then bribed their way out of charges, the dogfighting, the guy who shot himself in the leg, that's just standard petty shit. Coaches fired after good seasons because the owner doesn't like them, total idiots left on for years, good ol' boys who never seem to quite depart the NFL despite no one having an idea what they're good at, the ongoing disaster of analytics (the idea of applying mathematics to a sport run by overgrown infants), no, no, that's for another time.
A good time. I'll probably do one or two more of these.

COVID and the League

The NFL makes $16 billion. COVID kills people. $16 billion vs. dead people. Hmmm. Dead people. $16 billion.
So we're having a football season this year. It's almost guaranteed to kill at least some people who are either involved or involved in outbreaks caused by it, but hey, life goes on. Or doesn't.
The NFL pays lip service to preventing the spread, which is the start of our delicious drama.

COVID Protocols - the answer

The NFL has instituted COVID protocols. These are insane. For instance, people on the sidelines have to wear a mask. Athletes don't, because you can't breath through a mask while pushing your body to its limits. They explored face shields, but nah.
So you have two guys who are literally laying next to each other on the ground panting for breath after tackling (this sport isn't at all gay). They are breathing heavily, inches from each other. But say those exact same players who have been breathing in each other's faces for hours celebrate winning in the locker room? That sounds like half a million in fines. Pay up!
There's no real describing how insane this is. The raiders coach doesn't like his mask so he's declared war on the NFL. The Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Raiders, and more have been fined.
The masks have also looked sillier and sillier. This man is considered a football genius. No, he hasn't taken one too many shots to the head or something, he's just incapable of wearing a mask normally. God knows why. Coaches regularly pull them down to talk to people, thus defeating the entire point, etc. See? He wears a mask when he doesn't need to be close to people or talk to them he only pulls it down for short periods of time when he's close and talking. I don't see the problem here.
Half the organizations fined are appealing, and accusations of bias have flown back and forth. Angriest are the Saints, who are PISSED about being fined half a million dollars for having a celebration in their own locker room after a win after they passed a COVID test right before the game.
Does any of this make sense? Nope!
There's some more sensible protocols too. For instance new players have to test negative, then sit out in isolation for six days while the teams wait for them to make sure they don't have COVID, test negative again, then they can join the team. Of course isolation isn't that isolating, but that's a whole other matter. So overall, mixed bag for protocols.

Fake fan noise

Okay, so most games can't be attended by fans (not Dallas, Dallas said fuck it get sick and die) but crowd noise is a big part of football. Crowds cheer their team. So they pipe in fake crowd noise.
This is a little creepy but not too bad. So where's the drama? Well, lets turn to Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. Their QB, Carson Wentz, has been having a bit of a down year. So to show him love, they piped in fake boos. At a home game. This is kinda how Philly fans roll, but needless to say this move drew some controversy.

Baltimore Ravens COVID

The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to play a game on Thanksgiving, but their QB might have COVID. Fortunately the NFL was understanding. A QB is the most important position on the field, and without Lamar Jackson, there's no way the Ravens could be expected to play. So the game has been delayed as they work the situation out. So far, so good.

Denver Broncos

Okay, so that brings us to the Denver Broncos. See, anyone who has COVID has to be quarantined, as does anyone who might have it. Even if they test negative for a long while.
So the Denver Broncos backup QB has COVID. And they had a long meeting with their QB and their other backup QB. And their other backup. In a room with no masks. They're all put on COVID watch list, meaning they can't play.
So the Denver broncos have four quarterbacks, and none can play. The Ravens have just had a game delayed. The Broncos get told... game on.
Okay, they look around for QBs they can get on short notice. But remember in the protocol section where they have to have new players wait six days? Oh. They don't have six days.
In desperation they ask the NFL if they can at least play their assistant coach. He can throw footballs, and knows the playbook. Nope! Not signed as a player, has to sit for six days. "But he's been practicing with the team!" the Broncos tell the NFL. The NFL decides to beat the dead horse some more, and denies them.
Thus the Denver Broncos try to figure out who on their team can throw a football. The answer was their practice squad wide receiver Kendell Hinton. Here's him throwing passes in training camp.
Uh yeah, he catches passes. Not throws them. And has never played a game. And last threw a pass in a game in 2016, in college. And works as a salesman part time.
Is this a total middle finger to the NFL from the Broncos, or just the only person they had? I don't know, but it's ugly.

The game.

So the Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes. These are the highlights. 1 for 9, 13 yards, 2 interceptions. The Broncos got drubbed by the Saints, obviously, although NO was pretty gentle with Hinton overall. There's a lot of "welcome to the NFL" defense strategies you can use against a new QB like blitz zero - basically an all-out blitz - that will generally crush them until they get used to it. NO kindly used none of that, playing pretty standard.
Of course Hinton couldn't beat pretty standard, because Hinton is a receiver who isn't good enough to make the main squad. It's not all bad for him. The Denver Broncos gave him a shoutout on their Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Broncos/status/1333195716831838208
They reportedly gave him an ovation in the locker room, and gave him a the game ball. Multiple players have said they respect him, and they should. They weren't throwing the ball, and they probably would have looked just as bad. Gridiron football positions are not interchangeable, and QB is the hardest to step in to.
Fortunately Hinton seemed happy postgame interview, but damn.

Fallout

Broncos fans are furious the Ravens sat while their team was forced to play. Even ESPN has called this game "unprecedented in the modern era of football." There's a bunch of wagon circling back and forth.
Mike Klis a team reporter who covers them has reported that the Broncos other QBs tested negative before and after the game, meaning they could have played. Had they delayed the game they CERTAINLY could have played. So why did the NFL punish the Broncos and not the Ravens? Why show one team favoritism and guarantee the other a loss?
A big controversy is the NFL seems to be pushing "name brand" QBs. Lamar Jackson, QB of the Ravens, is one of those name QBs, and the NFL is pushing him hard as one of the faces of their game. Drew Lock, the Broncos QB, is not.
So this is adding fuel to that fire. Fans are convinced that people like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson are getting more protection from the NFL - refs are calling fouls if anyone touches them, they're rearranging schedules to highlight them, etc. These people most certainly increase NFL revenue, and the NFL pushes them hard.
On the other side, many outfits are talking how the Broncos broke the rules, and how the punishment was not unwarranted. Are these connected to the NFL? Maybe. Sports media is a bit incestuous. They can't just go report on some other organization if the NFL bans them or does mean things to them.
So this has drawn battle lines, and lead to a grand controversy that's still developing.
Was this interesting? Anyone interested in a writeup of the collapse of the Chicago Bears in 2020, the Antonio Brown saga (in three part harmony), or the 60 year history of mismanagement and ineptitude that is the Detroit Lions? Do you like reading about Gridiron football?

Welcome to the week 11 Official NFL Power Rankings! It was an eventful weekend, all that fans (of most teams) could reasonably ask for. Whose top 15 are upside down? Is any team more PFF than substance? Happy 2 million, Discuss! 31/32 reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Steelers	+1	10-0	Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this.
2.		Chiefs	-1	9-1	The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week.
3.		Saints	+1	8-2
4.		Rams	+6	7-3	Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick.
5.		Packers	-2	7-3	"MVS giveth, MVS taketh away"
6.		Colts	+7	7-3	The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season.
7.		Seahawks	+5	7-3	The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby.
8.		Bills	--	7-3	The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division.
9.		Buccaneers	-4	7-4	He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next.
10.		Titans	+4	7-3	The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season.
11.		Ravens	-5	6-4	This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend.
12.		Cardinals	-5	6-4	Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical.
13.		Raiders	--	6-4	Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well.
14.		Browns	+1	7-3	The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week.
15.		Dolphins	-6	6-4	After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues.
16.		Bears	+2	5-5	The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season.
17.		Panthers	+3	4-7	The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film.
18.		49ers	+1	4-6	Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list.
19.		Vikings	-3	4-6	Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR.
20.		Patriots	-3	4-6	Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good!
21.		Broncos	+4	4-6	Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph.
22.		Chargers	+1	3-7	This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week.
23.		Falcons	-1	3-7	Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons...
24.		Texans	+4	3-7	Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans.
25.		Lions	-4	4-6	The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it.
26.		Giants	+1	3-7	If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next.
27.		Washington FT	+2	3-7	And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game.
28.		Eagles	-2	3-6-1	Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway."
29.		Cowboys	+1	3-7	Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope.
30.		Bengals	-6	2-7-1	The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-9	It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help.
32.		Jets	--	0-10	The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs.

SVP and Cowherd only pick against the spread, so I assumed $1K per bet and -110 odds. To make it apples to apples, here are their winning percentages on only spread bets for this season:

1. Bill Simmons: 0.526, 30-24-3
2. Scott Van Pelt: 0.512, 42-39-1
3. Colin Cowherd: 0.476, 40-42-2

While Bill has the advantage here by actually incorporating wager amounts into his bit, here are the ROI rankings: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/groups/5fd8efce9d4745001726022e
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Interesting tidbits from the analysis:

• Bill
  
  • BS was doing pretty good before tanking hard the last couple weeks
  • Teasers (-26% ROI) and parlay (-25% ROI) were the main cause of a negative result
  • Spread (+2.2% ROI) and moneyline (+120% ROI) bets were positive on the year
  • Performs much better on favorites (+18% ROI) than dogs (-26% ROI)
  • Has made the most betting on the Rams (+44% ROI), least on the Cowboys (-100% ROI)
  • Has made the most betting against the Eagles (+91% ROI), least against the Bills (-54% ROI)
  • Bill's full dashboard: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/insights/use5fa40a5d27cf0c0017e2797b
• SVP
  
  • Primarily focuses on college football (-5% ROI), but does better on NFL (+6% ROI)
  • SVP's main thing is betting on college dogs, but is actually negative on the year on dogs (-3% ROI), positive on favorites (3% ROI)
  • He is much better on home teams (+4% ROI), than away (-13% ROI)
  • Has lost the most betting against Texas A&M, otherwise spreads his bets around too much to learn a ton about his tendencies on teams
  • SVP's full dashboard: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/insights/use5fd817059d474500172601d6
• Colin
  
  • Cowherd’s record was impeccable on the 4 teams he bets on the most - Dolphins, Bucs, Rams & Bills (16-4-1, +50% ROI)
  • Has made the most betting on the Bills (91% ROI), lost the most on the Falcons (-100% ROI)
  • Has made the most betting against the Chargers (73% ROI), lost the most against the Saints (-100% ROI)
  • Performs better on home teams (+8% ROI) than away teams (-25% ROI)
  • Colin's full dashboard: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/insights/use5fd968e506d00e00177fe857

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https://preview.redd.it/xm2rmxgccif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=727ec6ddc09f8e0ebc58dfbb4bfe5a6e702fff49
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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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https://preview.redd.it/ydhdh09bbif61.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=2130b984b7228140b0a17d05759752e7a8a09a87
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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https://preview.redd.it/ymqekb5nbif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61bc935642ddc713da5a866d8bc8fea123ea1dbf
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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https://preview.redd.it/enx2gsi8eif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1de643c848aefd212231c5e7a3059c580c0967b7
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!

I seem to remember someone doing this a few years back and really enjoying it, so I thought I'd give it a shot with the condensed schedule leaving so many games on the schedule each night. I'm ranking each game in three categories: competitiveness, importance, and style points/storylines (which includes star power, the style of basketball, and any intriguing stories to watch). I'll include a survey at the end where you can predict the winners of each game!
Let me know if this is something you'd like to see again!
10) Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) vs. New York Knicks (0-2) at 7:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Milwaukee -11
Last Meeting: January 14th, 2020. RJ Barrett drained five threes and Bobby Portis scored 20 off the bench, but the Bucks dominated the Knicks at Fiserv Forum 128-102. The two teams combined for a whopping 79 points in the third quarter.
The Bucks have won their last five meetings with the Knicks, with the last New York win coming in an overtime thriller at the Garden in December of 2018.
Competitiveness: A championship contender that dismantled the Warriors by 40 facing the Knicks on the tail end of a back-to-back. Not much else to say here. 1.5/10
Importance: This game is essentially a scheduled win for the Bucks, and a chance for the Knicks to test their young guys and let them grow up a little. Unfortunate that Obi Toppin will be on the sidelines for this one. 2/10
Style Points: The high-flying Bucks offense has been off to another hot start, topping the 120 point mark in both of their games. The Knicks' young guns have shown promise and made so flashy plays, but they also turn the ball over a lot. Neither team tends to foul a lot or shoot a ton of free throws, which will help game flow.
Some might keep an eye on Giannis' free throw shooting, but the real story to watch is RJ Barrett's three point accuracy. He lit it up from distance against Indiana, but struggled mightily against Philly. Can he take a step forward in that department this season?
Bonus points for the MSG crew calling this game. 6/10
Overall Rating: 3/10
9) Brooklyn Nets (2-0) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Brooklyn -7.5
Last Meeting: February 22nd, 2020. The Nets used a third quarter explosion to turn a comfortable win into a rout as they won 115-86. Luwawu-Cabarrot led the team in scoring with 21, while Garrett Temple of all people snagged eleven boards.
Competitiveness: The Nets have steamrolled over their competition so far, blowing out the Warriors and Celtics by 20+ points. The Hornets have struggled with two losses to non-contenders, and come into this game on the wrong end of a back-to-back. 1.5/10
Importance: A contending Nets team cannot afford to drop games like this one, especially in the early part of the season when there are so many eyeballs on KD and Kyrie. The Hornets could really use a positive performance to get their season headed in the right direction. 4/10
Style Points: The Nets have stars all over the court and have looked like a juggernaut early this season, making them one of the most intriguing teams to watch, and a fun one too, as they've played fast and made lots of threes. Charlotte ranked last in pace of play last season but seems to be trying to pick things up. You'll get the Charlotte crew for this game on NBA TV, and they call a fun game.
Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are two guys to pay attention to- Rozier dropped 42 on a Cavs team that sucks at defending point guards. Is he headed for a breakout season? Hayward was shut down by the Thunder last night and will look to get things going. Plus LaMelo Ball! 8/10
Overall: 4.4/10
8) Golden State Warriors (0-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (0-2) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Golden State -2.5
Last Meeting: December 6th, 2019. Glenn Robinson III made the go-ahead layup with a minute left and a very different looking Warriors team beat the Bulls 100-98 in Chicago. Denzel Valentine was ejected in the third quarter for yelling at the Warriors' bench.
Competitiveness: The Warriors have been blown out by two great teams so far. The Bulls have been blown out by two mediocre teams and just played a deflating contest against the Pacers last night. 4.5/10
Importance: Both teams could really use their first win of the season. The Warriors cannot afford to lose to teams like the Bulls if they're going to contend for the playoffs. This probably still figures as a matchup of two non-contenders, though. 5.5/10
Style Points: The Bulls have lots of exciting young players, but they seem turnover-prone and have struggled to score. Neither team has been able to stop literally anyone on defense so far (lol thanks Golden State for taking Wiggins), so there's a chance this turns into one of those ridiculous shootouts where both teams top 70 in the first half.
Patrick Williams looked good in his first game against the Hawks, but the Pacers were able to shut him down. Watching him adjust to the breakneck pace of games and the new level of competition will be interesting. The Warriors will need to find other sources of offense besides Curry and Wiseman, and this game is a perfect chance for them to do so. Definitely opt for the Chicago broadcast if you tune in. 4.5/10
Overall: 4.8/10
** 7)Philadelphia 76ers (2-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) at 7:30 pm EST**
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Philadelphia -6
Last Meeting: February 26th, 2020. The Sixers had to play most of the game without their two best players as Joel Embiid left in the first quarter with a sprained shoulder. The Cavs, then the worst team in the East, led the entire way and won 108-94.
Competitiveness: The Cavs look like a much better team this year as Sexton has another year under his belt and they have Drummond underneath. There's a long way to go to challenge the Sixers, though, and they played an exhausting two-overtime trench war with the Pistons last night while Philly coasted to an easy win over the Knicks. 5/10
Importance: Definitely a litmus test game for the Cavs- can they hang with Philly and prove that they can be that dangerous team no one wants to face in the east play-in tournament? The 76ers might be looking past this game as they have a big clash with Tampa Bay coming up on Tuesday. 4/10
Style Points: This game gives us two matchups between stars. Joel Embiid has been on a mission to start this season, following up his 29/14 against Washington with a 27/10 against the Knicks. His matchup with Andre Drummond will be one to watch. At point guard, Simmons-Sexton could be an even more exciting face-off. The Cavs have played a more fun style of basketball this season, using Sexton to ignite a high pressure defense that stole a win in Detroit. That double-overtime win might prove costly tonight, though, when they run out of gas against a deeper and more talented Sixers team. Bonus points for the Cavs having that really fun color guy, I guess. 6.75/10
Overall: 5.25/10
6) Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1-1) at 10:00 pm EST
Where to watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -11
Last Meeting: December 8th, 2019. AD dropped half a hundred and LeBron put up 32 and thirteen assists as the Lakers won a 142-125 slugfest. The Wolves hung around and trailed by only seven after three quarters before LA pulled away.
Competitiveness: The Wolves are off to a surprising 2-0 start, including an impressive win in Utah last night. Most would write this off as a scheduled loss, though, with a back-to-back against the defending champs and KAT getting dinged up at the end of the Jazz game. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new-look Wolves team trades punches with AD and Bron in the first half. 6/10
Importance: The Lakers seem to finally be settling into the new season after a disappointing showing on opening night, and will be looking for another statement win. Some Wolves fans have speculated that they will rest KAT after his injury scare tonight. I'd expect him to play, but no one in Minnesota thinks they will win this game. 3/10
Style Points: Anthony Edwards going up against two of the best in the game? DLo back in LA? Upstarts against the defending champs? Top notch storylines for this game, where the first half will be a good litmus test for Minnesota, before fatigue probably sets in for guys like Edwards and Culver and the game gets pretty ugly.
Minnesota's defense looks much improved this season, and their explosive bench can keep this game fun. And you know what you're getting with the Lakers' stars. Unfortunately the NBA TV rights to this game mean most fans will get the LA crew and miss out on the top notch Fox Sports North announcers. 8/10
Overall: 5.6/10
5) San Antonio Spurs (2-0) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (1-1) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: New Orleans -5
Last Meeting: August 9th, 2020. The Spurs and Pels faced off for a high-scoring showdown in the bubble that saw the two teams combined for 77 fourth quarter points. JJ Redick went off and hit eight threes and Zion chipped in 25, but the rest of their teammates shit the bed and the Spurs won 122-113.
Competitiveness: The Spurs are off to a fast start, most recently squeaking out an impressive win over the Raptors last night. The Pelicans have produced mixed results, but beat Tampa by a more impressive margin and have an extra day of rest. Expect a close one early, with New Orleans having a sizeable edge late. 6.5/10
Importance: Both teams figure to be in the hunt for the final playoff spots and will see each other plenty this season as they are both in the same division. I doubt the Spurs would sweat this B2B loss too much, though. 7/10
Style Points: Zion put up a highlight-worthy 32 and 14 on Christmas Day against the Heat, and the Pels look like a new team on defense, making them one of the most interesting squads to watch this year. Ingram, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo can combine for an offensive explosion at any time. The Spurs can play kind of a bland style sometimes, especially with 35 year old LaMarcus Aldridge playing on a back-to-back. Dejounte Murray, who just posted his first career triple double and looks much improved this season, will be an interesting to player to watch today. This one feels like it could be a snooze-fest or a barn-burner, with nothing in between. 6.75/10
Overall: 6.7/10
4) Boston Celtics (1-1) vs. Indiana Pacers (2-0) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Boston -2.5
Last Meeting: Tuesday March 10th, 2020. The Celtics were the last team the Pacers faced before Miss Rona stepped in and put a stop to the basketball for awhile. Marcus Smart made the go-ahead layup to rescue Boston in the final minute after they blew a 19 point lead, and they held on to win 114-111. Sabonis posted a 28-9-8 night for Indiana.
Competitiveness: The Celtics have the rest advantage, as they got the night off to lick their wounds after a Christmas Night Stomping at the hands of KD and Kyrie, while the Pacers had to take the floor last night and beat up on the Bulls. The Pacers figure to be in the middle of the playoff pack, while the Celtics would like to challenge the Bucks and Nets at the top, and this game will be a huge early measuring stick for both teams. The Pacers will have home floor, which makes this anyone's game. 8/10
Importance: It's never too early to have a big game for playoff seeding! The Celtics will be anxious to prove that their opening game win against Milwaukee was no fluke, while the Pacers need to show us that they can beat someone better than the Knicks and Bulls. 7.5/10
Style Points: This is where this game kind of falls short. Tatum, Kemba, Sabonis, Brown, and others all provide lots of star power, but aren't the big names featured elsewhere on this list, and both teams tend to play slower, more defensive-oriented basketball. The Celtics' thumping at the hands of the Nets is more of a story for Brooklyn than for Boston, and Indiana has maybe been the playoff team that jumped off the page less than anyone else so far. Add in a game that's only broadcast locally and that overlaps with every other game but two and this game takes a bump in a packed Sunday night slate.
Still, this should be a very good game between two playoff teams, and a fun one to tune in for down the stretch if the Pacers keep it close. 5.5/10
Overall: 7/10
T-2) Orlando Magic (2-0) vs. Washington Wizards (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Washington -1.5
Last Meeting: Last night! The Magic and Wizards squared off for their first of back-to-back games, which was an exciting back-and-forth contest. The Magic had the edge on the glass for much of the game, which only intensified late as they pulled away and the Wizards started pressing and taking bad shots. Beal went off for 39 points while Westbrook posted a triple-double, proving that they can in fact play together just fine.
Competitiveness: Last night's game was a see-sawing battle for most of the evening. Orlando looks like the better team and one of the more improved squads in the East, if their win against Miami is any indication. Still, beating a team on their home floor twice in a row is extraordinarily difficult, and the Wizards get to regroup and see if they can fix their rebounding woes against the same team. Expect another entertaining toss-up!9/10
Importance: Both teams are in roughly the same boat: improved squads who will likely find themselves sitting on the edge of the Eastern Conference playoff field. They won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and to pick up a quick two games on their competition would be an enormous boost for Orlando. 7.5/10
Style Points: The Wizards have been playing a fun new style with Russ and Bradley Beal sharing the load on offense, and early speculation about how the pair will get along on the court has been promising. The Magic get the job done with comparatively little star power, but Vucevic has always been one of the more underrated players in the league and deserves some recognition. Terrence Ross and Davis Bertans will be other players to keep an eye on- Ross has been extremely hot offensively in his first two games, while Bertans is a streaky shooter who can be the key to Washington winning or losing.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline, though, is the back-to-back baseball-style two game series. College leagues are trying this out across the country and we've seen in leagues like the MAAC, Mountain West, and others how hard it is for superior teams to beat the same team on consecutive nights. We've also gotten a glimpse of this in the NBA preseason. This time, the teams are very evenly matched. How will the Wizards adjust tonight? What effect will the wonky scheduling have? 8/10
Overall: 8.2/10
T-2) Dallas Mavericks (0-2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) at 3:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -5
Last Meeting: August 30th, 2020. The Clippers knocked the Mavs out of the first round of the playoffs, winning Game 6 after the game was moved back due to the player strike. Doncic dropped 38 and Dorian Finney-Smith chipped in 16, but only one other Dallas played cracked double digits. L.A. moved on to the next round where they cruised through the first four games against the Nuggets and...oh wait hahahahahahahahahaha.
Competitiveness: The Mavs need to get their shit together. They posted a close opening night loss against the Suns and then got their doors kicked in by the Lakers... neither of those are alarming results, but they're not the mark of a playoff team. The Clippers are angry at the way last season ended, ready to take it out on the league, and they've looked like a juggernaut with Nic Batum in their lineup, putting up convincing wins over the other top two teams in the West. Doncic can keep any game close, but he needs his teammates to carry some of the load, and the Clippers are still the clear favourites here. 6.5/10
Importance: Dallas needs to show that they can beat playoff teams, as their schedule for the next few weeks doesn't get any easier after tonight. They'll face the Heat, Rockets, Magic, Nuggets, and Pelicans. They'll have to figure out who their second and third best scoring options are in the process. Both teams will be looking for a statement win on a national stage- they're the only teams playing in the afternoon tomorrow and get a national broadcast on NBA TV. 8/10
Style Points: Kawhi... Luka... PG13.... could you really get any more star power? The Mavs looking for revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs by beating them in a Sunday Showcase game (albeit on NBA TV) in their house provides a great story to go along with the stars. The Clippers have been red hot from three point range to start the season, and a Mavs defense that allowed 138 points to the Lakers will probably provide plenty of opportunities for more fireworks. If not for the potential of a lopsided final score, this would be the #1 game of the day. Tune into this instead of football on a relatively light NFL day. 10/10
Overall: 8.2/10
1) Phoenix Suns (1-1) vs. Sacramento Kings (2-0) at 9:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Phoenix -3.5
Last Meeting: Last night! Sacramento jumped out to a 15-2 lead, but the Suns almost immediately cut that in half, and tied the game early in the third quarter. The teams traded baskets for much of the second half, with DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield carrying the offensive load for the Kings, who held on to win thanks to some timely offensive rebounding from Richaun Holmes.
Competitiveness: Aside from the early flurry from the Kings, these teams were as evenly matched as they come, trading punches for the entire second half. The Suns probably won't shoot 11-44 from three point range again tonight, and the Kings will probably take better care of the basketball. Regardless, we're in for a fascinating rematch of two Western Conference playoff hopefuls. 10/10
Importance: Both the Suns and the Kings are exciting young teams with opportunities to improve on last season, and both figure to end up in that 7-10 seed range in the Western Conference. These two teams won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and the Suns cannot afford to drop back-to-back contests against one of their competitors for the last couple of playoff spots. The Kings, meanwhile, were largely overlooked by fans and writers heading into the season and look poised to outperform expectations. Going 3-0 to start the season would do a lot to quiet the doubters. Regardless, this two game series will likely end up mattering down the road. 8/10
Style Points: The Suns were the talk of the NBA Bubble in August and have continued turning heads with their opening night win against the Mavs. Chris Paul's presence at point guard allows them to run a better offense than "just let Devin Booker chuck as many threes as he wants and hope Ayton rebounds enough to let us eke out a close win". They're still a fun, up-tempo team that shoots lots of threes, and finally play some good defense if that's your thing too. Sacramento announced themselves as a team not to be slept on with their opening night win against the Nuggets (thanks Will Barton), and the trend continued last night. They've attempted the fewest threes of any team through two games this year, and their game plan of Fox driving and everyone crashing the glass gives us an intriguing contrast of styles.
Like I mentioned for the Wizards game, the baseball-style series also presents us with interesting questions to answer in this game (how will the Suns adjust on the glass? can the Kings beat the same team twice in a row?), and a nerve-wracking two games between two teams who are very close in talent level and playoff hopes. Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix's broadcast is the only one on League Pass so far that has figured out their on-court audio and actually sounds normal. Keep that one in mind! 8/10
Overall: 8.7/10
I also made a Google Form where you can pick all the winners of today's games... I'll link that below. Thought it would be cool to see how Reddit does predicting the winners. I'll close the form at 3:30 when the Mavs and Clips tip off. I'll try to pare this down length-wise if and when I do this again. Thanks for reading!
Pick the winners here!

Setting the Stage for the 2021 Draft

It's time to start looking forward to the 2021 NFL Draft now that we are officially eliminated from the postseason AND are picking at #4 (as of right now. I don't expect that to change much, especially given our final two opponents, the Washington Football Team and New Orleans, will be looking for either a division crown or an outside shot at the #1 seed in the playoffs). The big question surrounding who we should pick will be swirling for a while, with people throwing out Micah Parsons or Pat Surtain II. I don't think, however, that we will be picking anything other than a QB. Coach Rhule has already criticized Teddy a couple of times already.
As I've said before, I believe the plan all along was to let Teddy take the reins this year so that the team would have some veteran leadership, and then see where he guided us. Then, in 2021, the plan was always to take a QB in either the 1st or 2nd round, and let that QB sit behind Teddy for the majority of the 2021 season, and then cut ties with Teddy at the end of 2021 and let the drafted QB take over going into the 2022 season. (This is why Teddy's contract has a $21m savings if we release him after the 2021 season.)

The 2021 Draft Forecast

The 2021 Draft is unique because it is THE QB Draft. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have always been the two favorites going into season, much the same way Andrew Luck and RGIII were obvious #1 and #2 in the QB prospect rankings in 2011. But beyond that, this year there is a load of talent in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of QBs that could all make franchise QBs. Trey Lance was always considered the "third wheel" of the group, and Zach Wilson was seen as the back-end of the 1st round guy. He's obviously moved up with stellar play, but so have guys like Mac Jones.
Now that we're picking 4th, I've noticed some posters say we should try and trade up to #2 and get Fields. This, should be, out of the question. The Draft Trade Value Chart is still very much a baseline for teams to use, even though it is now over 3 decades old. Looking at the Draft Value Chart, the #2 pick is worth 2649 points. That is our destination. Our #4 pick is worth only 2297, which puts us almost 400 total points behind the #2 spot. To make up that ground, we would need to likely give up our 3rd round pick to move up as well. Normally that's not a huge deal, but the problem here is that this Draft is incredibly lopsided towards QBs, which pushes every other position down the board. There are LOTS of LT prospects in the Draft that can be had in the 30-38 range (Leatherwood, Radunz, Christensen, Little, etc.) and even more LB prospects to be found in the 50-70 range (Werner, Surratt, Collins, Robertson, etc.). We can't risk that range of picks moving up when there's so much other value on the table later on.
With all of that being said, the focus here is on Trey Lance versus Zach Wilson. My guess is that most of you have only heard the name or saw highlights of Trey Lance, and possibly even Zach Wilson. I've been fortunate enough to watch a ton of NDSU games, and have been able to watch Zach Wilson play this year since the FCS has taken the Fall off, and Lance is preparing for the NFL Draft (sans one showcase game, but we'll get to that).

The Prospects: Trey Lance

Height: 6'4 (listed, will probably be closer to 6'3 1/2)
Weight: 225lbs (listed, though he'll probably weigh in around 220)
Age: 20 (will turn 21 right after the Draft)
2020 Stats: 15-30/149 yards/2 TDs/1 INT | 15 rushes/143 yards/2TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: Deshaun Watson
(Before I start, here's a cool little video from College Gameday that ESPN did earlier this year.)
The numbers for Trey Lance seem weird when looking at them objectively. Only played in one game this year, and played an extremely odd game. But there's more to Trey than just his numbers this season. First, NDSU only played one game this Fall, due to the FCS sitting out the Fall sports program and moving to Spring. His 2019 numbers are eye-popping, however.
192-287/2786 yards/28 TDs/0 INT | 169 rushes/1100 yards/14 TDs
Those numbers are absolutely insane. Sure, they come against FCS teams, but even still, he's a man amongst boys.
There are times when it looks like Trey Lance is already an NFL QB. He calls his plays from the huddle, he calls his own protections from under center at the LoS, and then takes his snaps from under center and operates out of either an I-formation or a single back set a majority of the time. In fact, read this excerpt from ESPN about how Lance approaches the gameplan of football.

During game weeks, Lance studies hours of tape in preparation. On Mondays, he reviews the opponents' overall schemes; Tuesdays are for third down; Wednesdays for red zone; and Thursdays for two-minute offense. On Fridays, after cutting film the previous day, Lance presents the game plan to his receivers, telling them where they need to be in particular concepts.

That's right, Lance draws up his own gameplans for his receivers and their routes. So, yes, the NDSU offense does, at times, look like guys are being schemed just absolutely wide open, while Lance just throws strike after strike down the field. But it's Lance who is drawing up those concepts to get those guys free. He understands football at a level that most 20 year olds cannot even begin to process. Not even looking at his raw, God-given talents and athleticism, he understands football. A lot of the questions for players when they come out of college is: "can this guy operate in the NFL from a spread offense?" Even one of the major questions about Cam was, has he ever called plays in the huddle? Well, that didn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but it is a question. Lance not only calls the plays from the huddle, he's responsible for concepts in each phase, whether it be their hurry up offense, their red zone offense, etc.
This is where the comparison to Deshaun Watson comes in. Yes, he's a mobile QB with a massive arm that can throw the ball anywhere on the field. But it's more about how intelligent he is as a QB, understanding the flow and motion of a game better than his peers.
There are obviously negatives to his game. He's not the perfect, polished QB that Trevor is, obviously. Sometimes Trey tries to rely on his athleticism to make big plays. Whether that's heaving the ball downfield off his back foot or throwing while fading to his right (something Cam had significant problems with throughout his career), Trey will need to learn to set his feet and not rely on being more athletic than everyone because, honestly, he's not more athletic than everyone in the NFL. This also comes into play when he's running the ball. Yes, Trey is fast. Like, VERY fast. I would say he ends up running a 4.5 - 4.6 40 time. But there are times when he lowers his shoulder for a boom to truck players. And he does! At least, in the FCS he does. In the NFL, he's going to have a rough time if he tries to just bulldoze someone like Lavonte David, for example.
All-in-all, Trey is my favorite QB for us in the NFL Draft. I think he has skills that are far beyond his years. He's smart, athletic, and knows football. He doesn't rely on a spread to just dominate FCS teams with up-tempo. Instead, he can slow the game down, then just accelerate past you once you've fallen into a lull. But he does need work, and I think sitting behind Teddy for a year will give him insight into the game of football that would be invaluable. And I don't mean this negatively: Teddy could teach him how to be a pro and take what is given to you, even if that means passing for 3 or 4 yards at a time. Not every play has to be a 40 yard moon shot.
Trey is also young enough that he could be our starting QB for the next 15 years if it turned out right. Think about this: Trey won't be 21 until after the Draft. That means in a decade, he'll only be 31. That's insane.

The Prospects: Zach Wilson

Height: 6'3 (listed, though he may be a true 6'3)
Weight: 210lbs (listed, though I'm not sure how I feel about that. He could bulk up for the Draft to around 215 or 220.)
Age: 21 (will turn 22 right after before the preseason begins)
2020 Stats: 221-302/3267 yards/30 TDs/3 INTs | 65 rushes/242 yards/8TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: A much better Jimmy G
Zach Wilson is someone you've definitely heard of by this point. He has risen up the Draft boards, and, before the loss to Coastal, was rising up as a Heisman dark horse. Before this season, there was talk about Zach possibly hitting the back end of round 1, maybe even early round 2, but there were also some serious questions about his health, which I feel like we should start out with.
Zach has had shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder from an injury sustained in high school. He said that the injury would feel horrible on Mondays after games. The surgery could help clear that up, and there's obviously no signs of any injuries when he's throwing quick strikes down the field. But, however, even bigger than that is that he has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will need to be worked on. From that same interview:

Wilson, in his interview with BYU Sports Nation, added that he also has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will eventually require surgery. He said he has been limited in his workouts, including not being able to bench press, but does a lot of workouts with dumbbells and resistance bands, typical to the routine of a healthy quarterback.

Not being able to lift is a big deal, though not terrible for a QB. As long as he is doing resistance training, he should be good. There's still some chances that he won't be able to participate in the bench press workout at the Draft, which could see some teams waver on him.
What does Zach do well to make up for the injury concerns, though? Well, for one, he throws at almost every arm angle. He has the ability to lower his shoulder and throw those weird, quick strike, side-arm pitcher style throws. He can move in the pocket while throwing accurately downfield. The "Moving Parallelogram" is a hard concept for QBs to run often, because it requires great feetwork and accuracy on the move. Zach Wilson does it with ease, and does it consistently. This is where the big comparison to Jimmy G comes from. Jimmy is great at shuffling his feet, moving out into space, and getting the "Moving Parallelogram" concepts to work to his advantage.
Here's the thing with Zach Wilson versus Trey Lance in the grand scheme of things. Trey is a dominant force athletically, being able to do everything and see everything... but the knock is it's against FCS teams. Zach has been doing this against the P5 teams consistently. He's played against Washington, USC, Utah, etc., and, though he does struggle in some of those games, he still has shown that he's tough and can play through pain and injury to get the job done. That's something that Coach Rhule has expressed happiness with, especially when it came to DJackson this year. Being tough and fighting through injury is laudable.
Will Zach need to sit for a half a season/a season to prepare like Trey? Yeah, I think he will. I think that Zach needs to learn how to make progressions from an NFL offense. It's important to note here that BYU runs a variant offense, running through the spread with motion, under center, 4 right sets, etc. And while Zach's mechanics are very good, I think that he needs to learn how to be consistent against some of the top level teams from an NFL offense. Make reads out of the spread and understand coverages and concepts.
Here's a really cool video featuring Zach's family, interviewing him on toughness and how determined Zach is to succeed. One thing that I really took away from this is that Zach has taken the time to consistently work with John Beck on his mechanics, and John Beck is a great example to follow. He's someone who has taken a path through the NFL, to the CFL, and has seen a myriad of offenses come and go. That's awesome to see that he's taking it seriously, and not just saying "well, I'm the starting QB of BYU, so I've got this in the bag."

I’m seeing a lot of misinformation about Wentz on this sub, so I thought it would be useful to provide some clear, concise, unbiased, data-driven information about Wentz’ contract and play this season. Hopefully this helps users be more informed about the situation when forming their opinions.

• - - - - What is left on Wentz’ contract? - - - - -

For simplicity, I will be rounding off all the numbers. Here is a breakdown of Wentz’ contract.
There are three main elements to understand about his contract: his yearly salaries, his signing/option bonus, and his upcoming roster bonus.
Salaries: 15M in ‘21, guaranteed. 22M in ’22; most of this guarantees on March 19, 2021; the rest guarantees at the start of the ’22 season. Salaries in '23 and '24 are not guaranteed. Guaranteed salaries cannot be removed from the cap via a cut, but can be removed from the cap via a trade, as the new team takes on the salaries.
Signing/Option Bonus: 33M. The actual money has already been paid, which means there is no way for the Eagles to remove it from their cap(s). Currently, the cap charges are spread out 9M/9M/9M/6M over ’21-’24. If Wentz is cut or traded after ’20, all of this money goes onto the ’21 cap. Likewise, if he is cut or traded after ’21, the remaining money (24M) goes onto the ’22 cap. There are ways to spread it out over two years instead of one, but no matter what happens, this 33M is going on the Eagles' cap eventually.
Roster Bonus: 10M, guaranteed, paid on March 19, 2021. The Eagles can remove this from their cap by trading Wentz before this date (the new team pays it instead). If he is on the roster on this date, or cut, this 10M counts on their ’21 cap. Wentz does not have a roster bonus in ’22.
If the Eagles keep Wentz in '21, his cap charge is 34M.
Finally, Wentz is scheduled to make an additional 26M in each of ’23 and ’24, but since none of that money is guaranteed, it’s not relevant to the current cap situation. If Wentz is traded or released, all that money goes poof.

• - - - - What happens if the Eagles trade or cut Wentz? - - - - -

It depends on when it happens.
Scenario One: If Wentz is traded before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 33M in ’21, slightly less than his cap charge if they keep him (the actual difference is about 800k). He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Two: If Wentz is traded after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 43M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Three: If Wentz is traded after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of 24M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23 and beyond.
Scenario Four: If Wentz is cut before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 49M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Five: If Wentz is cut after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 59M in ’21. Also, Howie Roseman will be publicly executed for his crimes against the Eagles salary cap.
Scenario Six: If Wentz is cut after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of $39M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23.
NOTE: There are ways to spread out these cap hits over two seasons instead of one. There are also ways to restructure Wentz’ contract prior to a trade, which would change these numbers. For simplicity, I’m not going to cover all those scenarios.

• - - - - What is Wentz’ contract for an acquiring team? - - - - -

It’s important to understand that Wentz' contract is far more palatable to any team that acquires him via a trade, since that team would not be responsible for his signing/option bonus money.
An acquiring team is only responsible for his ’21 salary, his ’22 salary (because it guarantees in '21), and his ’21 roster bonus (assuming the trade is made before March 19, which is likely). That means they would be paying Wentz 25M in ’21, and 22M in ’22. Those are very affordable numbers for a decent starting QB; for comparison, Carolina will pay Bridgewater 23M next season. Cousins’ cap number is 31M next season. Brisett is eating 21M while sitting on the bench this season, and the Colts guaranteed 25M to 39-year-old Rivers.
Further, if the trade works out, an acquiring team could keep Wentz for around 26M in ’23 and ’24, with none of it guaranteed. Those are attractive numbers.
Essentially, an acquiring team is gambling 47M on Wentz. If it works out, they have him on a very reasonable contract for four years. If he plays at '18-'19 levels, his contract would be around market value. If he plays at '17 levels, he would be a bargain, especially in '23 and '24 when the cap will be much higher.

• - - - - How badly has Wentz played this season? - - - - -

I will be using statistics from Football Outsiders. The relevant statistics are DVOA and DYAR. DVOA “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations.” DYAR “gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” In other words, DVOA is value per play, and DYAR is total accumulated value (basically DVOA times the number of plays).
I will be rounding numbers for simplicity. Rankings are out of the number of QBs who threw at least 200 passes in the given season. These numbers are for passing only; Wentz does add some value with his running, but it’s not a huge amount (average around 40 DYAR per season).
Here are Wentz’ numbers for the past four seasons:
2017: 24% DVOA (ranked 6/35), 1047 DYAR (8/35).
2018: 8% DVOA (13/34), 545 DYAR (14/34).
2019: 0% DVOA (20/34), 476 DYAR (17/34).
2020: -38% DVOA (33/34), -831 DYAR (34/34).
How about some context? Here are the QBs over the past 10 seasons who posted -30% DVOA or worse. Yes, that’s an arbitrary cutoff, so be it.
2016 Goff: -75% (rookie)
2018 Rosen: -54% (rookie)
2011 Gabbert: -47% (rookie)
2012 Quinn: -44%
2019 Haskins: -42% (rookie)
2014 J.McCown: -42%
2020 Darnold: -41%
2014 Bortles: -41% (rookie)
2020 Wentz: -38%
2018 Allen: -36% (rookie)
2013 Weeden: -36%
2017 Kizer: -35% (rookie)
2012 Skelton: -35%
2014 Griffin: -34%
2020 Smith: -33%
2011 Painter: -33% (2nd year, first year starting)
2013 Pryor: -32% (2nd year, first year starting)
2011 Ponder: -32% (rookie)
2012 Cassel: -30%
Only two of those players, Goff and Allen, ever had productive seasons afterwards.
But only three of those players, Wentz, Smith, and Griffin, ever had productive seasons beforehand. Smith is 36 years old and coming off a catastrophic injury, so he’s not a great comparison. The best comparison is Griffin, who was excellent for a rookie in 2012 (17% DVOA), got injured and became average in 2013, and has barely seen the field since 2014.
Other than that, it’s hard to find adequate comparisons for Wentz. It’s unprecedented for a productive 5th year starting QB to suddenly become this bad, this fast. Outsiders wrote about this here, so please read that article if you want more comparisons.
I’m going to stray from my unbiased, data-driven approach for a moment. One thing I’ve noticed on this sub (and the internet in general) is that while everyone realizes Wentz has played poorly this season, a lot of people don’t seem to grasp just how poorly he’s played. A common opinion seems to be, “it’s one bad season, he can bounce back.” And while that is possible, I think it’s important to understand that this is not a routine bad season. Through 12 games, Wentz was on pace to break the all-time record for negative DYAR in a season, set by Josh Rosen. The only players who have seasons this bad are rookies, veterans who are over the hill, and random back-ups who end up starting for whatever reason. The vast majority of QBs who play this poorly are never productive starters again. Wentz’ collapse, from proven starter in his prime to this, is unprecedented.

• - - - - What will happen? - - - - -

Because Wentz' career arc is unique, it's very difficult to predict his future. It's possible Wentz rebounds and becomes a productive starter again. It's possible he is out of the league in 2023. And of course, every outcome in between those extremes is possible as well.
It's important to think about this situation probabilistically. It's fallacy to say, "Wentz will rebound." It's fallacy to say, "Wentz is finished." The truth is we don't know, and even assigning rough probabilities to those outcomes is extremely difficult.
As such, it's also difficult to predict what the Eagles will do. As detailed in the contract section(s), Wentz' contract is tradable; a trade helps the Eagles' cap in '22, and his contract his affordable to an acquiring team.
The core question behind a possible Wentz trade is this: what is more valuable to the Eagles, the unknown chance that Wentz regains his form, or the known cap space in '22 plus any pick(s) they get in a trade?
It's up to Lurie, and/or Roseman, to answer that question.

Whew, what a win!
I'm going to review every offensive drive and include a ton of gifs for those who care to go through as many plays as possible. For everyone else, I’ll begin with a summary, and I hope you enjoy clicking through the few plays you’re interested in.
 
Summary
 

• I rolled my eyes when I saw the Arians quote saying, "it's not the script starting out the game, it's the execution of it." Surprisingly, after watching the all-22, I agree with him!
  
• The play calling was very similar across both halves and the execution was clearly the difference. As a fan, it's much easier to accept failure in the instance where players don't execute as opposed to when the coaches just hold the team back
  
• This was easily Leftwich's best game of the year
  
• Lots of play action. I counted 16 attempts. Surprisingly, it was actually fairly unsuccessful. The most frequent explanation for the unsuccessful play action plays was poor pass protection (as in quick protection breakdown, not coverage sacks). The designs and calls were, for the most part, very good. Similarly, the Falcons did bite, and route combinations were mostly smart against the given coverages. This was good process, and I'll live with the results and trust the players to execute better in the future
  
• Excluding the last 2 minutes of each half, 65% of 1st down calls were passes. Before week 16, only 45% of 1st down calls were passes with the same exclusions! Run/Pass EPA per play on 1st downs in this game were -0.05 and 0.28 respectively.
  
• Nice play designs in general. Most plays had answers built in for multiple defensive coverages.
  
• Tons of easy plays that don't require complete perfection to be successful. They took what the defense gave them without forcing the issue or being overly committed to certain ideals
  
• Pass protection needs to be better. It was the biggest reason why the offence didn't put up points in the first half, and the most frequent explanation for any failures throughout
  
• There were still some questionable personnel decisions on 1st down runs that created unfavourable defensive looks. While I want this team to maintain the threat of the run on early downs, and to run well, the current scheme and decision to play heavy sets are making it difficult for the Bucs. The personnel choices can easily be fixed week-to-week, a change in run scheme would require an off-season overhaul and install.
  
• There are certain simple route adjustments that the coaches seemingly don’t want the players to make in game that could be highly beneficial. This has been a head-scratching issue throughout the season
  
• Great game by Evans, Godwin, AB, Gronk, and Brady. Those receivers did a great job creating separation and running sharp routes, and Brady’s reads were consistently on point. When watching QBs on all-22, it’s easy to nitpick every play. With Brady, it’s freaky how often, and how quickly, he makes the right decision given what the defence is playing. His success doesn’t come from making splashy or spectacular plays (though he can), it comes from a relentless ability to make the correct decision play after play.
  
• Offensively, the positives in this game FAR outweigh the negatives. As mentioned in a previous post, the coaches don’t need to be perfect for this team to be great. Offensively, what the coaches did is enough, in my opinion, for this team to be a real contender
  

 
1st Possession
 
1st & 10: good start with an easy play taking advantage of off coverage. Nice block by Godwin, too
2nd & 4: Falcons come out in cover 3 and Bucs counter perfectly with a flood concept. Nice separation from Brate againt a LB.
1st & 10: Falcons are playing cover 1 robber with tight coverage. Brady reads the HOSS concept, which is just a hitch/seam combination, on the left. In what has been a theme in this offence, Godwin doesn't adjust his route to an outside release. Against single high man coverage, ideally Godwin would have released outside and pushed up the sideline to create separation from the middle safety. I think these issues come from how these concepts are taught/coached, not because players aren't reading things right. Brady reads the fade then throws it away. He could've potentially tossed it up to Evans, but the coverage is there and the risk reward is terrible on this play (i.e. throwing a jump ball where you either gain 5 yards or get picked). I also have no idea what the Bucs pre snap check system is like, but it would be nice if they could get to a rub combination against this man look where both corners are lined up on the same level.
2nd & 10: it's confusing how poorly the Bucs have done on these HB screens throughout the season. The DB reads this perfectly and blows up the play. This is the play that killed the drive, despite strong execution before this.
3rd & 18: 3 man rush with all coverage players at the sticks. Easy screen pass to improve field position.
 
2nd Possession
 
1st & 10: Bucs come out with six offensive linemen and one tight end creating a loaded box. Why create this look to run on 1st down? Why play this personnel package? I'd understand it on 2nd & short where you only need a short gain and can run or use play action. But, why not play 11 personnel and spread it out to create lighter boxes, where you can run, pass, play fake, whatever? Unsurprisingly, the run up the gut gains just 1 yard.
2nd & 9: Falcons show a single high look pre snap that rotates into a 2 high zone (middle field open) post snap. Brady reads this well and knows that the inside player on the snag route will be open. This spacing concept has been a staple in this Bucs offence.
3rd & 1: outside pitch for 2 yards
1st & 10: 1 yard run up the middle. There's nothing there.
2nd & 9: same spacing concept again. Falcons play a single high zone this time (middle field closed), and consequently, Brady attacks outside. It only gained 2 yards, but it's not a bad idea to give Scotty an opportunity in space outside to make a play.
3rd & 7: Falcons play a single high man blitz. Nice pass protection and good pick up by McCoy. AB was the best option on this vs this look, but the coverage was great so Brady throws it low and away. Either AB makes a play or no one gets it. Give credit to the Falcons for this one.
 
3rd Possession
 
1st & 10: 6 offensive linemen again. Bus call play action against this zone blitz, which should be a favourable situation. However, Josh Wells gets destroyed on the offensive line and gives the offence no chance on this play. Credit to Fournette for a good block.
2nd & 10: A simple but effective play from the Bucs that they use a lot where they have double slants on one side and a slant/flat combination on the other. In general, the plan here is to use the double slants vs 2 high looks and to use the slant/flat combo against 1 high looks. The Falcons show single high pre before rotating into a cover 2 man post, so Brady attacks inside. Great catch and separation by Evans.
3rd & 3: terrible pass protection against a 4 man rush.
 
4th Possession
 
1st & 10: Run for 3 yards. Tight formation, loaded box. Again, why create this look?
2nd & 7: single high zone blitz from the Falcons. Great hot route execution here between Brady and Gronk. Gronk gets his head around quick on the flat route for an easy gain of 7.
1st & 10: 11 personnel and play action? Oh my! Excellent design and call. This play not working is solely on Brady. This is an easy throw.
2nd & 10: Bucs have been using this 3x1 a lot lately to isolate either Evans or Gronk. I asked Jon Ledyard about this during Sunday’s Pewter Report podcast, and he said this was frequently used last season but had been reduced this year as Evans played more snaps from the slot. With AB and Godwin being better inside receivers, I like the idea of these formations. Brady throws a beautiful pass and puts it right on Evans’ face on this out route. This is a much more difficult throw than the previous play, and you can't make this throw without a strong arm.
1st & 10: Another play action pass where the offensive line gives them no chance. Pass pro HAS to be better, but I'm liking the play calling. This is a nit pick, but we see a few of these "soft" fakes throughout the game. I'd rather Brady/the play design create a harder fake, but, I'm happy to take it.
2nd & 10: I'm normally not a fan of runs on 2nd and long, but I like what Leftwich did here. They spread it out with 11 personnel to create a light box and then call a draw play. There's a hole here, and the situation created is relatively favourable (this is what I want them to do more on 1st down runs!). Vaughn just falls down from light contact, and that's not on the play callers.
3rd & 9: the blitz pick up is just terrible here. Falcons show man pre snap before rotating to a zone coverage. Brady could've gotten the ball to Evans for a 1st down if the pass protection didn't give a literal free path for the rusher to the QB.
 
5th Possession
 
Kneel down
 
End of 1st Half
 
6th Possession
 
1st & 10: beautiful play action design against the Falcons cover 1 robber. The LB bites on the play fake which creates a huge opening over the middle for an easy pass to AB for 20 yards. Great stuff.
1st & 10: another play action! Nice design. Brady throws off a poor platform, and the throw was mediocre, but Evans needs to complete this catch.
2nd & 10: Falcons again playing cover 1 robber. The LB brackets Gronk which creates a window for a pass to Brate. Solid execution all around.
1st & 10: this is obviously a good result for a 9 yard gain, but I question the process. There's not a great opportunity/gap here, and you can't expect a huge push like this every time. By no means am I saying never run on 1st down, but I don't think the rush frequency needs to be anywhere near as high as coaches think it does in order for defences to respect the run and for play action to work. What's the right frequency? No one knows right now.
2nd & 1: solid run up the middle in a short yardage situation to pick up the first.
1st & 10: play action with a double post concept against 2 high man coverage, which is a great schematic matchup for the Bucs. This is one of the few coverages against which play action does nothing, but I like keeping the fake because you don't know for sure that it's not a disguised zone, or even cover 1 man (against which you can make the LB bite). Awesome throw and catch. Nice pass protection from Fournette, too.
1st & Goal: easy TD on the run
 
7th Possession
 
1st & 10: 3 man route concept off of play action against the Falcons zone. Simply need better pass protection here. Brady senses pressure and throws the ball away at Gronk's feet. With better protection, he might've been able to work his read over to Godwin.
2nd & 10: the Bucs, again, call the double slant and slant/flat combination. This time the Falcons are playing single high man, so Brady works the slant/flat. Again, a simple, easy play with answers built-in. Fournette continues to protect well.
3rd & 5: Falcons bring a 3 man rush and play single high man with two buzz defenders. The Bucs dial up the mesh concept. The press coverage on Evans had the potential to disrupt this play, but he does an excellent job of getting into his route anyway. This particular situation is one where at-the-snap motion can be helpful in creating a free release.
1st & 10: another play action call, and again against zone. Nice design with answers built-in for a variety of looks. Fournette has a ton of space, so I like Brady's decision to take the easy play. Fournette turns a solid play into a very good play with his play after the catch. It's often a good idea to simply give your players a chance in space where the risk is low but the reward can be high, especially on early downs. Think back to the Miller play early in the game that only went for 2 yards. Good process will have good results over the long run.
1st & 10: 7 man box against 6 blockers. How do you expect this run to go?
2nd & 10: the Bucs seem to use this exact WR screen play every game, and the Falcons were prepared. However, Brady and Evans make an off-script play. Great job by Evans breaking off his route to create a huge opening for Brady. Maybe this is a sign of the chemistry and communication improving?
1st & Goal: this looks like zone on the strong side and man on the weak side? Either way, the Falcons cover well. Brady throws it low and away against tight coverage.
2nd & Goal: beautiful RPO design against this defensive look where one DB is playing off. The only thing I would consider changing is having Evans stem vertically so that the inside corner can't possibly make a play on the ball.
 
8th Possession
 
1st & 10: play action into HB screen. This can be a nice play, but the blocking execution must improve! Yes, you're meant to let rushers pass you as an offensive lineman, but you have to give them a bump.
2nd & 10: we see 3x1 once again to isolate Gronk. The Falcons play cover 2 man, so Brady works the 1 on 1. Here's another situation, where likely by design, Godwin doesn't adjust his route in a way that would be favourable against the given coverage. Godwin sits, which would be great against zone, but the play would be more effective if he kept running horizontally, instead, against man. This is an improvement opportunity for this staff; I'd wager Godwin is simply executing this play the way he's been told to. What’s confusing is that these are super standard route adjustments, and its weird to watch an NFL team not make them.
1st & 10: solid play action design. The FS sits for a moment, and that's why Brady decides to attack deep on the post route. However, Johnson just can't separate enough. I don't understand why he's even out there, as this is the exact type of play where Miller excels! Fournette was also wide open on this play. But, given what the coverage dictated, Brady made the right play. You can't expect him to continue to a later read if the earlier read dictated a pass target.
2nd & 10: the Bucs dial up a post wheel out combination on the strong side against the Falcons' single high zone defence. This is a great situation that created a three-attackers-against-two-defenders situation.
1st & 10: nice outcome with Evans on a comeback route against tight man coverage. This play drew two flags for a big gain.
1st & 10: another easy play in space to Fournette against cover 1 man. If the RBs can be consistent with their catching ability, that'd be a huge plus for this team as these plays are there for the taking when the coverage is right.
1st & 10: easy quick out against off coverage. Continuing to take what the defence is giving.
1st & Goal: good play fake. Defender had to grab Gronk to stop him, and this drew a flag.
1st & Goal: solid run to finish the drive
 
9th Possession
 
1st & 10: very weird play on this 3 man route play action. The ball should've probably been caught, but the throw wasn't great, either.
2nd & 10: another solid play call where Brady has answers against various coverages. The throw to McCoy was the correct decision against this cover 3 zone. I'd much rather see McCoy take whatever yards he can up the sideline instead of trying to move east/west.
3rd & 5: this WR screen call might have been iffy against this tight pre snap look. However, the Falcons send a corner blitz which ended up working perfectly for the Bucs on this play call.
1st & 10: Falcons show cover 3 pre snap but rotate into cover 2 post. Good read by Brady to see this and find the inside sit route to Brate that wouldn't have been open against cover 3.
2nd & 1: same play as the one that opened the game. It's riskier here as there's a corner at the LOS who could potentially make a play. I'd rather just see a run or a play action for an easy play, instead. I don’t love the risk/reward of this play against this defensive look.
1st & 10: Gronk was Brady's 3rd read on this play. It looks like Brady just throws it away high. This was the play after which Brady was visibly frustrated and slamming his hands against his helmet. My guess is this wasn't because he missed the throw (the throwaway looks intentional), but because he realized he had Fournette wide open as the check down.
2nd & 10: decent play against very soft man coverage. Another low risk but high potential reward play if Miller can make a man miss. I’m a fan of this approach philosophically in the pass game.
3rd & 6: looks like there's a concept to beat 2 high on the left, and a concept to beat 1 high on the right. I'm surprised Brady stayed on the left so long. Either way, he got to Gronk in time on the right. However, Gronk fell at the top of his route. Oh well. Nice play call, though.
 
10th Possession
 
1st & 10: the Falcons disguise coverage here beautifully. Before the gif began, the Bucs motioned Fournette, too, who had a linebacker follow him. The Falcons follow two motions and show cover 1 man pre and rotate into a cover 2 zone post. Brady reads it well, anyway, and finds Brate. This type of high-level quarterbacking is easily missed when watching the TV broadcast. It seems like a routine play for a medium gain, but the recognition and processing by Brady is fantastic. These disguises at the NFL level are incredibly difficult to deal with. Another solid play design, too, that gives Brady multiple answers depending on the coverage. If it were cover 1 man, Brady likely would have worked the right side of the field.
1st & 10: unsuccessful run
2nd & 9: once again punishing soft coverage.
1st & 10: solid design against this defence with verticals outside, and (likely) an option route for Godwin in the post. Against single high, like this, he runs a dig route. Against two high he would've run a post. The safety bites down on the dig and leaves AB wide open against his one on one matchup. There was a miscommunication between the DBs at the snap that actually left Godwin wide open. It's possible that this was because the Bucs motioned Godwin from out wide into the slot (forcing last second defensive communication). Brady had two great options, and he happened to pick the touchdown.
 
11th Possession:
1st & 10: run for 2 yards
2nd & 8: good play action design that got AB open, but the protection was terrible.
3rd & 16: screen pass to McCoy against off coverage to improve field position
 
12th Possession:
 
Runs for 1st down + kneel down
 
I saw some, but not too many, people complaining about Brady starting slow. The tape really doesn't back that up. He had the one miss to Godwin early that ended up being inconsequential given the absolute strike to Evans on the next play. I don't believe there's any sort of Brady issue early in the games, though he has had a couple of slow starts. I think that's seeing a small sample of results, which happen to form what looks like a pattern, and then assigning a narrative without understanding the why (which has to be analyzed on a play-by-play basis; it's never as simple as "Brady starts slow... just because"). This type of thinking persists everywhere, including in other aspects of the game and outside of football entirely, but I digress.
This was the most New England-like this offence has looked. This has nothing to do with some "secret New England plays", and everything to do with philosophically committing to play action and taking easy plays that the defensive coverage gives you. I don't think there was a single new play called. The difference was early down passing and not forcing plays against unfavourable looks. I really hope this what the team continues to look like going forward, minus the pass protection. There's a chance that the quick pass heavy game plan was a function of the Falcons having a terrible pass defence, RoJo being out, and playing from a deficit. If that's not the case, and if this is the trend moving forward, there's a lot to be optimistic about on offence.