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Monthly Gambling Discussion – Tell us about your latest gambling experiences

Please use this thread to discuss your proudest and most interesting moments in gambling: wins, losses, streaks, etc. Rule 6 is in place to keep this thread relevant; please ask questions or submit general comments as separate text posts.
submitted by AutoModerator to gambling [link] [comments]

$ACAC Merging w/ Playstudios - Undervalued MGM-Backed Online Gaming/Gambling/Return to Normal Play?

$ACAC Merging w/ Playstudios - Undervalued MGM-Backed Online Gaming/Gambling/Return to Normal Play?
Wondering what everyone's thoughts are regarding Playstudios merging with ACAC. Seems to have oddly dropped below even where it was when it was in the rumour stages. Here are some of the investment notes I've gleaned from my research.
Please help provide more bear (or bull) cases if possible!
Summary
⦁ Online gaming company with major backing and investments from MGM Group, Blackrock, Activision Blizzard, and Neuberger Berman
⦁ Playstudios' game profiles include: myVEGAS Slots, POP! Slots, myKONAMI Slots, myVEGAS Blackjack, and Kingdom Boss + myVEGAS Bingo coming soon
⦁ >100M lifetime app downloads
⦁ 4.2M monthly active users

From PlayStudios investor deck
⦁ 56 minutes playtime/day (more than TikTok, YouTube, etc. as per Skillz' research), fairly comparable to Skillz as well (their data below)
Skillz data on minutes per user per day - Playstudios is 56 minutes/day
⦁ Unique loyalty rewards program that engages sticky user base by providing free rooms, meals, drinks, at many Las Vegas resorts such as Bellagio, Aria, MGM, Luxor, Mandalay Bay, etc., as well as exclusive gambling room access in select casinos
⦁ Valued at $1B enterprise value at NAV
⦁ Using capital injection to develop new apps, M&A with other gaming companies
Bull Cases
⦁ SPAC Management group is quite stacked and very heavy on online gaming, and gambling sectors
⦁ Co-CEO Edward King has experience at Morgan Stanley as Managing Director and Global Head of Gaming Investment Banking
⦁ Co-CEO Dan Fetters also has experience at Morgan Stanley as Managing Director of M&A
⦁ EVP of Acquisitions Chris Grove is a partner at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming
⦁ Chairman Jim Murren former CFO, Chairman, and CEO of MGM for over 20 years (12 years as Chairman, CEO) and led the recovery of MGM post-financial crisis. Currently also Chairman of COVID 19 Response in Neveda
⦁ Other Board members include the President and CEO of the Boston Red Sox and Chief Exec. of Fenway Sports Management, Senior VP of Monumental Sports and Entertainment, former CEO of ShooWin, and FoundeCEO of Sydell Group (lifestyle hotel chain)
⦁ Playstudios exec. team also all have long history of gaming, and gambling sectors
⦁ TAM of mobile gaming only set to continue to grow YOY
⦁ Loyalty program appears to be very sticky for Vegas visitors, as well as offering a clear value add for even non-gamers to participate (free drinks, hotel stays, etc.), and causing a virtous cycle from user app engagement -> real-life reward redemption -> resort app offers -> and back
Virtuous Cycle - from PlayStudios investor deck
⦁ Undervalued in terms of PS ratios comp. to other mobile gaming companies (Zynga, Playtika, etc.), and EBITDA basis
⦁ History of strong app development and revenue growth without major capital injection
⦁ History of profitable business model, stronger revenues than a Skillz ($270M for Playstudios v. $255M for Skillz)
Revenue Growth and DAU Chart - from PlayStudios investor deck
⦁ All apps have strong user experience and reviews are exceptional
⦁ Very large amount of shares set to exit lock-up 12 months after de-SPAC
⦁ During the lockdowns, the global market for social casino games grew 24%, indicating a strong hedge play against another locked down economy
⦁ Massive list of partners
Partners List - from PlayStudios investor deck
⦁ Very valuable subset of audience
From PlayStudios investor deck
Bear Cases
⦁ Perhaps one of many entrants into an industry of very high competition
⦁ EBITDA near-term is not super strong
⦁ Some SPAC cash usage not ideal ($150M going into founder's pockets)
⦁ Not in a very hype sector like EV, Space, etc.

TLDR: I think Playstudios is under-the-radar, competitively differentiated, and undervalued comp. to other mobile gaming companies right now at ~$11.20/share, and see near-term upside as a long-hold given the major partners and big names behind it (MGM primarily, Activision Blizzard secondarily).
Disclosure: 5000 shares of ACAC
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor... do your own due diligence.
submitted by GullibleInvestor to SPACs [link] [comments]

ACAC Spac (PlayStudios): A Solid Risk Reward Longer Term Play (Long)

Hey guys, I have a bit of a long DD on ACAC / Playstudios. You can read the text below. If you want to see the full post with all the nice pictures, you can check it out here. I was too lazy to upload each picture individually to Imgur. Apologies in advance.
I've seen numerous people on Reddit compare the ACAC / Playstudios SPAC to Skillz, and some even to Draftkings. I think this is mainly because they're all in the online gaming / gambling industry, but aside from that, the companies themselves are quite different.
I think a more apt comparison should be between Playstudios and Playtika (Ticker: PLTK), since they operate in the same vertical, compete against one another in mobile slots games, and Playtika has publicly available financial data in which I will be making comparisons against.
Playtika Analysis
You can find Playtika's prospectus here
First and foremost, Playtika is one of the leaders in the mobile casino space. They have an assortment of games, and they themselves are diversifying into more casual games (similar to what Playstudios says they are trying to do), but their bread and butter are casino games, and the ones that make the most money for them are slots.
Slotomania, House of Fun, and Caesars Slots are all mobile slots games, and as you can see from the above, they generate a significant portion of Playtika's revenues (roughly 50% of their 2020 revenues).
OK, so why do I keep bringing up Playtika? Well, they had a very interesting graph that shows how much of their revenues come from different segments of their user base, based on when they acquired those users.
What this chart is saying is that 45% of their revenues came from users acquired from 2013 and earlier!
This is insane! They have such high user retention and user LTVs, that they're still monetizing a portion of their users that they acquired from 7 years ago.
If we go up to 2017, then roughly 75% of their revenues come from users acquired 2017 and earlier!
This is important because Playtika's oldest games are all slots games. So this is telling us that users that play mobile slots games, they tend to stay with those games for extremely long periods of time, and if they do stick with them, they spend a lot of money! This is great news since the vast majority of Playstudio's revenues come from mobile slots games.
If you look at Playtika's financials, you'll notice pretty nice revenue growth. However, a lot of that is non-organic, and was accomplished through M&A. This was because in 2016, Playtika was acquired by a consortium of Chinese game companies for $4.4 billion (including Giant Network, a well known gaming company in China), and they need to make revenue numbers higher to have a better story to sell for the IPO.
And part of their strategy was to diversify into casual games, and they did so by acquiring about 15 companies since 2016, including Wooga (developer of June's Journey, a very profitable find hidden objects mobile game) and Supertreat (developer of Solitaire Grand Harvest, a profitable card game).
However, one of the caveats of casual games is that the ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) is lower, and retention is lower than casino games. I did my own calculations on Playtika's ARPPU for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you can see the noticeable downtrend. This was obviously not disclosed in the prospectus. Only ARPDAU (average revenue per daily active user) was disclosed.
My belief is that even though ARPPU and retention are lower, maybe the market is giving a higher multiple to casual games. I believe that even though online gambling is beginning to see legalization in many states, and more and more people are starting to be open to it, there is still a bit of a social stigma associated with it, and certain investors may be wary to investing in a pure "casino" play. That's why Playtika is making such a concerted effort to move away from purely casino games, and positioning itself as an mobile entertainment company. Another reason is also the immense competition and high user acquisition costs, but Playtika has shown that they are more than able to execute on a long term strategy here.
Playstudios Analysis
Before jumping into anything else, I want to go straight to Playstudio's financials.
The reason is because I think there's a lot of fluff here, and I want people to know the bullshit. But even when you see through the bullshit, the downside is still mitigated enough to warrant this play.
So first off, take any numbers you see from 2022 with a grain of salt. No one knows what's going to happen this year, let alone two years in the future, and in my eyes, those 2022 numbers look extremely unrealistic. Revenue growth will probably not be that high, unless they make some big acquisitions, and EBITDA margin expansion probably won't be that fast.
Revenue Growth
Playstudios is planning on launching a Bingo and an RPG game, and their plan is to aggressively spend on UA (User Acqusition) in 2021. Their hope is that revenues will scale up with their UA, and by 2022, they can lower their UA spend a bit, and continue to monetize the new games exceptionally well, maybe at an even better rate than 2021.
I think this is a bit farfetched, especially in such a competitive space as Bingo. I've done analysis on Bingo games before, and some of those games have also been around for 8 to 10 years, and they can't expect to just launch a game and have it ramped up to their expected revenue in a year's time. Development for those games requires game designers, people who are very good at math, product designers, and a many other people, which can make the development timeline quite long (at least a few months, for a more finished product, I think at least half a year for these guys). I think a more plausible scenario is that they acquire a smaller Bingo player, and then begin optimizing that game, and add in their own loyalty rewards, as that's the quickest way to ramp up revenues post IPO.
My guess is revenues are not going to ramp up as quickly as they expect, and they'll see limited revenue growth here, and still mainly see some growth from better monetizing their slots players. I think by 2022, somewhere between $350 million to $400 million in revenues is more reasonable, and I'd probably lean towards the lower end of that range.
Margin Expansion
In terms of margin expansion, I think the decrease in cost of sales is doable. It seems like there is some extra fat there that they can trim as they scale. The cost of sales is mainly the tax that Apple and Google charges when users make a purchase through their respective stores, and this is a flat 30%. I doubt they'll get it less than 30% any time soon, but that will probably be through getting their whales to make purchases outside of the Google Play Store or App Store, and using a much cheaper payment processor.
I think a long term goal of 20 - 25% for UA spend is reasonable. I'm OK with these numbers, though they may need to spend more initially to ramp up new games. One of the benefits of their loyalty rewards program is that they can have higher retention, and this might be a way for them to lower their UA spend, since people may be more willing to tell their friends about a free trip or prize they won through a mobile game.
Another reason I'm OK with the UA spend is because it seems like they have a pretty knowledgeable UA team. I have access to App Annie, a data analytics company that tracks mobile apps, and I checked out the download history for POP! Slots, one of Playstudio's mobile games.
You'll notice that US downloads spiked quite a bit in March. This is right when COVID-19 was beginning to spike in the US, and people began working from home. In the mobile app world, many apps had spikes in downloads in March and April 2020 because there was a much larger pool of users looking to download apps. CPAs came down, and companies that had strong UA teams were able to capture a lot of these new users. Thus, this tells me that Playstudios UA team was at least aware of ongoing trends in the mobile app space, and they were able to capitalize by gaining more users during that period of time.
The biggest issue I have is with the "All Other Expenses." I don't know why it's this high (R&D and G&A shouldn't be that high), and Playstudios definitely needs to do some expense cutting here. While this has the most room to cut, it may be the hardest since I'm guessing a lot of that cost is from legacy employees. But if they can get this to around 30% by 2022, I'll be happy.
Playstudios Has No Daily Active Users (DAU) Growth
This is a common issue I see raised on Reddit and I want to address it here. Below is another chart from App Annie, which has DAU estimates.
As you can see, DAU has remained pretty flat for the past 2 years, roughly between 150K and 200K users.
But have you considered that revenues were actually increasing during this time? This means that Playstudios is becoming more efficient at monetizing their current users (getting more money out of older players), or their user acquisition team is targeting more profitable users.
And this is just how the game is played in the mobile apps world.
Users will eventually get sick of a game and stop playing. Not many games can count on users organically finding their game, and continuing to play indefinitely. To maintain a certain DAU, companies generally have to spend money on UA to maintain that user base. It becomes a business where you are calculating how much you are spending on UA, and whether the LTV and retention are good enough that you can make money in the long run from those users. You can think of it as an ROI on your marketing spend.
And this is especially true for mobile game apps. If it were a social app, then yes, something like the network effect can come into play, and UA spend would be much lower. But for Playstudios, maintaining a steady DAU is actually a sign that their UA team knows what they're doing, and they're able to maintain a profitable and highly efficient business. It's actually a positive that they can maintain their DAU, and even INCREASE their revenues during that period.
End Game?
I don't actually know how this will end up. I don't give price targets cause I have no idea how the markets will value this company. But I can provide a few data points so that you can make your own decisions.
From a multiples standpoint, Playstudios is cheap on a revenue multiple basis compared to Playtika, and is about the same from an EBITDA multiple basis.
I personally don't think that Playstudios is a play that's going to 5X. Hell, even 3X I think will be a stretch. But, they do have a loyalty program that will help lower their UA costs, and extend the lifespan of their users. And they are moving into more types of games to diversify their revenue source.
The reason I like this play is because I think the downside is heavily limited. The lifespan of casino slots players are so long, and the revenues are pretty stable (even growing), that there isn't an immediate risk that revenues will all of a sudden drop 30%, as is the case with lots of other mobile game companies. Add on top of this the potential for new revenue growth drivers from Bingo and RPG games, and the potential for margin expansion, that this is an easy 30-50% upside from current prices with almost minimal downside.
One last minor bit, is that I'm sure lots of people missed out on the hype surrounding Draftkings and Skillz, and I'm sure there are some retail investors that will look for any type of casino / mobile gaming / gambling deals, and may jump on this as well. My feeling is that there is also a potential upside from the hype or FOMO factor.
Anyway, this is my analysis on Playstudios / ACAC, hope you guys enjoy.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. These are my personal views and analysis on Playstudios. Please do your own due diligence.
Disclosure: I own 400 shares of ACAC.
submitted by bananainbeijing to SPACs [link] [comments]

I live in a small mining town in the mountains of Colorado. Someone is building a massive casino nearby, Pictures Included

I grew up in a small mountain town named Eureka. It was founded in the late 1800s during the gold rush, but after the mines dried up the town began its slow descent into decay. Half the houses are empty or abandoned now.
You can see a picture of the kind of houses here in Eureka:
First house
Second house
When a massive construction project began nearby, it was the talk of the town for weeks. Why would they build something in a sleepy dying town like Eureka? It wasn’t until my sister Selene talked to a few construction workers that we discovered they were building a casino.
A casino up in the mountains, over two hours away from Denver. None of us could understand why they’d chosen here of all places. After a few months of work, the casino was done.
I took a picture of the town with the completed casino in the background to the right. The ten-story-structure sticks out like a sore thumb off in the distance.
Town+Casino
After the casino opened, they hired a few dozen members of the town, offering high paying jobs to work as dealers or cleaning staff. I was already employed as a firefighter, but my sister Selene got a job as a blackjack dealer. She’s a widow with two young kids, so the paycheck was a real lifesaver.
Still, something about the situation seemed too good to be true. The jobs over there paid far too well, and the management was far too accommodating. The fire station where I work is located high on a hill overlooking the town, so I began watching the casino from a distance each day.
I had initially thought that the casino was located in a terrible location, but I was apparently wrong. True, Eureka was hours from any major city, but despite that, a bus full of people arrived every morning and left every evening.
One night I was over at my parent’s house and had dinner with Selene and her kids. I asked her about her experience as a dealer.
“It’s Ok,” she said. “Just a little boring I guess.”
“Boring?” I asked. “I’m surprised you don’t have your hands full.”
“Why’s that?” she asked. “It’s like you said, Eureka’s too small. I never have people playing cards. The casino is almost always completely empty.”
I wasn’t sure what to make of that. If the place was always empty, what happened to the people who I’d seen arriving on buses? “I’ve been keeping an eye on the building,” I said. “A bus full of people typically arrives around 9 AM every day.”
“Really?” she asked, looking confused. “If that’s true, I’ve never seen them.
“I can see it from the fire station,” I said. “If you head out for a smoke break at 9 AM, you’ll probably see them arriving.”
“Interesting,” she said. “I’ll do that. If they’re being processed for their organs or something, I’ll let you know.” She laughed.
“Har har,” I said sarcastically.
The next night she sent me a text calling me over. When I arrived, she was nearly breathless with excitement.
“Orin, You were right,” she said. “A big group of people did arrive, but they didn’t walk into my part of the casino. Instead, they all walked into an elevator at the back of the building. I’m not sure where that goes.” She looked thoughtful. “It was weird. They looked… How can I say it? Desperate? Something about the whole situation was very off. I’m gonna check out the elevator tomorrow.”
I told her to be careful, though, to be honest, I was excited to hear about what she discovered. When I visited my parent’s house the next night, I found her two kids there alone. They told me that Selene had never returned from work.
I called all her friends, then all our neighbors, but no one had seen her since she left for work that morning. Our conversations regarding the casino flooded my mind, then a plan began to form.
Early the next morning I walked across town in my nicest pair of jeans and a button-up shirt. I pushed through the door to the casino and saw that Selene wasn’t lying. The place was all but deserted. Three dozen slot machines crowded the walls surrounding a few tables interspersed throughout the floor of the casino. The only players in the whole building were Bob and Donald, two locals.
I walked up to a nearby table where Bridget, a girl I’d gone to high school with, was shuffling cards. She broke into a grin when she saw me. “Hey Orin, you here for a few rounds of blackjack?”
“I wish,” I said. “No, I’m here to ask about Selene. She never made it home last night.”
Bridget’s expression darkened. “Really? Have you asked around?”
“I already called around. Have you seen her?”
She shook her head. “No, our schedules rarely line up. I’ll be sure to let you know if I--” Her eyes focused on something behind me, and she cut herself off.
I turned around to see the casino’s pit boss watching us both. He was a tall thin man in an impeccably clean black suit. When I turned back towards Bridget, she was looking down at the table and shuffling cards absent-mindedly.
“Well, if you hear anything, let me know,” I said.
She nodded, so I turned around and headed for the pit boss. I stuck out my hand. The temperature of his hand was so hot that I had to pull my hand away after a few seconds.
“Have… have you seen my sister Selene?” I asked. “She hasn’t been seen since her shift here yesterday.”
He smiled. “Sir, this floor is for players. You’re more than welcome to head to the tellers for chips, but barring that I’m afraid I’ll have to ask you to leave.”
I stared at him for a long second before stalking towards the door. When I looked back, he was talking with Bridget.
I checked my watch. 8:55 AM, just as I’d planned. I walked around the back of the building and waited as the morning bus pulled around the building. I waited for the telltale hiss of the opening doors and the sound of people descending before I rounded the corner and joined the crowd. None of them paid any particular attention to me as I walked with them into the casino.
The crowd walked through a side door down a hallway to an elevator. Small groups of people entered the elevator as the rest of us waited for our turn. I shot a glance at the casino patrons, surprised at their diversity. There seemed to be people from all different countries and ethnicities. I heard one speaking Japanese and another speaking what sounded like an African language.
My turn came along with a few other patrons in the elevator. A sickly woman hobbled into the elevator beside me carrying an IV that was still connected to one of her veins. We piled in and rode up to the top.
The elevator rose for a few long seconds. I wasn’t sure what I would find, but I steeled myself for something horrible. The elevator’s speaker let out a TING, then the doors opened.
We all walked out onto what looked like a standard casino. Another few dozen slot machines ringed the walls, but on this floor, they were almost all occupied by customers. I took in the scene, confused at why they’d have a ground floor that was almost completely empty when this place was almost--
Selene was dealing cards at a nearby table.
I jogged over and sat down at an open seat. None of the players around me paid me much attention.
“Selene!” I said. “Are you OK? Did you spend the night here last night?”
Her eyes were glassy and confused. She looked up at me with a dumb expression and didn’t respond to my question.
“Selene?” I asked.
“What’s your bet?” she asked me. “This table is for blackjack players only.”
“I…” I trailed off, looking at the players around me. None of them were betting with chips of any kind. “What’s the minimum bet?” I asked.
“Three years,” she responded.
“Three years then,” I said, not knowing what that referred to.
Selene nodded, then began dealing cards. I shot a look down at my hand. King and a 9. Selene dealt out cards for herself, showing a 9. I stood, then leaned forward again. “Should I call the police? Are you--”
“Congratulations,” she said tonelessly.
An almost impossibly warm hand grabbed my shoulder. I spun to see the pit boss I’d spoken to earlier. He gave an impressed smile. “Orin, was it? I’m impressed, truly. Would you mind if I had a word with you?”
I shot a look back at Selene who was dealing the next round of cards. Then I got to my feet, balling my hands into fists. “What did you do to her?”
The pit boss clasped his hands behind his back. “Nothing more, and nothing less than what I’m going to do to you. That is, offer you the chance to play.”
“What the hell is that supposed to mean?”
The pit boss nodded his head towards a nearby slot machine. A woman in a wheelchair pulled a lever and watched the flashing numbers spin. They exploded in a cacophony of sirens and flashing lights. “WINNER WINNER WINNER!” The machine screeched.
The woman in the wheelchair put her feet on the ground and stood up on a pair of wobbly legs that had clearly never been used before.
“As in any other casino,” the pit boss said, “you must wager for the chance to win.”
“She... won the use of her legs?” I asked, feeling light-headed. “Wait,” I said. “I played blackjack just now. ‘Three years,’ Selene told me. What does ‘three years’ mean?” I asked.
“Three years of life, of course. Did you win?”
My mouth felt dry. “I-- Yes, I won.”
He smiled warmly. “Congratulations. I hope you enjoy them. I can tell you from personal experience that watching the decades pass is a bore. Give it some time and you’ll be back to spend them.”
I watched the pit boss’s face. He couldn’t have been more than a few years older than me, and I was in my early thirties. I looked around at the casino. No one was playing with chips of any kind. “So what?” I asked. “I won years of life. That woman won the use of her legs. What else can a person win here?”
“Oh, almost anything. They can win almost anything you can imagine.”
A cold feeling settled in my stomach. “And what do they wager?”
His eyes flashed with greed. “Almost anything. They can wager almost anything you can possibly imagine. Anything equal in value to the item they want in return.” He nodded towards a nearby roulette table.
A man stood by the table, cradling his hands. “Another finger,” he called out. He only had three fingers remaining on his left hand. As I watched, the ball came to a stop, and another finger disappeared from his left hand.
The pit boss extended his hands. “Feel free to try any of our games. Bet and win whatever you’d like.” He reached out and snatched my hand. A feeling of intense warmth passed up my arm to my chest. “There,” he said. “I’ve even given you some house money to get you started. An extra decade of life, on me.”
I ripped my hand away, staring at him in horror. Then I looked back at Selene. Something clicked in my mind. “You offered her the chance to play. What did she want?” I asked.
“Her husband,” the pit boss said. “Quite the sad story. He died two years ago. She wanted him brought back to her.”
“What did she wager?” I asked.
“She wanted the chance to win a soul, the most valuable object in existence. I’m sure you can imagine what she needed to wager for the chance to win it. What she wagered is unimportant. The important question is: What do you want, Orin?”
I stared at Selene with a flat expression. “I’m sure you can imagine.”
His eyes flashed with greed again. “How wonderful. The casino could always make use of another dealer. Feel free to make your wager at any one of our games; I’ll be eagerly awaiting the results of your night. Oh, and do take advantage of our waitresses. We always supply food and drink for ‘high rollers’.” He walked away.
I spent the next few hours trying to decide which game to play. I was going to be wagering my soul, so I wanted the highest chance possible. Slots and roulette were out. I’d done some reading online about counting cards, so I figured that blackjack gave me the best odds.
I walked up to Selene’s table and sat down. “Bet?” she asked with that same toneless voice. “Three years,” I said.
I spent the next hour or so doing my best to remember how to count cards. I knew that low cards added one to my count and high cards decreased it by one, but the casino used three decks. I had read something about how that was supposed to change my calculation, but I couldn’t quite remember how.
Every time I won a hand, I cursed myself for not putting everything on the line. Every time I lost, I breathed a prayer of thanks that I’d waited. And all the while, I kept track of the count.
I had lost fifteen years of life when the count finally reached +5.
“Bet?” Selene asked.
“I wager my soul so you can be free,” I said.
The table around me fell silent. Selene’s eyes flickered, but she showed no other emotion as she dealt the cards. I watched my first card, punching the air in excitement when I saw a Jack. My excitement turned to ash when my second card was a four. Fourteen.
I looked at her hand. One card was facedown, but the faceup card was a King. I swore loudly, staring down at my hands.
“Hit?” she asked. The entire table was silently watching me.
“Hit,” I said, not looking down. The table erupted in cheers. I looked down to see a 7 atop my two other cards. 21. Blackjack.
I looked at Selene who flipped over her facedown card to reveal a 9. 19. I won.
The glassy look left her eyes immediately. She looked around in surprise, then her eyes locked on mine. “Orin?” she asked, then almost immediately began to cry. The entire casino broke out in cheers.
I grabbed her hand and headed for the elevator. The doors had begun to close when the pit boss reached out with a hand to stop them.
“Congratulations,” he said, beaming. He seemed to be honestly excited.
“Shouldn’t you be upset?” I asked.
“Not at all. Casinos love it when we have big winners. It inspires the other players to make larger bets. I imagine I’ll gain two or three dealers before the night is through from your performance.”
“Great,” I said flatly. “Now let us go.”
“Not yet,” he said. “You didn’t just win, Orin. You got a blackjack. And blackjack pays out 1.5 times your bet. You won your sister’s soul and more.”
I stared, not sure what to say. “What are you saying? I won half a soul extra?”
The pit boss grinned wildly. “Just remember what I said. You’ll find living for decades and decades to be a boring experience. After a few centuries, you’ll be back to gamble that half a soul away. Congratulations!”
He removed his hand, and the elevator doors slammed shut.
I helped Selene back to her house. Her children were relieved. I watched them cry, then moved into the kitchen to start making dinner.
It’s been a few days since that experience. The casino is still out there, and buses full of people still arrive. I… I cut my hand pretty bad a few days later. When I checked it an hour later, it had already healed, no scar or anything. I’m not sure exactly what I won at that casino, but there’s no way I’m ever going back.
X
submitted by Worchester_St to nosleep [link] [comments]

Los Santos Summer Special FAQ, Links and Discounts!

Rockstar has released their brand new Summer Special DLC including a ton of brand-new vehicles, missions and clothing items available for purchase.
Some previous links to get you sped up on the DLC:
This thread will become a host for all the further official announcements by Rockstar, reputable datamines and user-made content by our very own members such as R* Editor clips, screenshots, guides and the like! FAQ will be included here as well. So if you're busy at work and can't play yet anyway, give these links a look!

General Information

As of about 10AM UTC the update is out now on consoles - it seems to be about 2GBs in size. Will update soon! Edit: Now available on all platforms from what I can tell.
Feature Updates & Improvements

New Content and Discounts

New Content:
Legendary Motorsports:
Southern San Andreas Super Autos:
Benny's Original Motorworks:
Kudos to klegnut for the upgrade costs.
Clothing:
Thank you to Cpt_Foresight and Azarenas for the new clothing info!
Podium Vehicle:
Double GTA$ and RP Activities:
Discounted Content:
Time Trial:
RC Bandito Time Trial:
Thanks to Biomixels for the time trials.
Premium Race:
Twitch Prime Bonuses:

Links

FAQ

When will the DLC drop?
Soon. Rockstar usually pushes updates around 3:30AM EST or 9:30AM UTC. Check this helpful map showing all the timezones.
Does the DLC cost money, how can I get the DLC?
The DLC will be made automatically available through whatever launchestore you have the game on. Those using the Rockstar Launcher can expect to see their games updated first, so be ready for that.
What can we expect?
Judging by Rockstar's announcements and timelines, this DLC won't be massive. They've confirmed new business battles and yacht missions, probably comparable to the previous client jobs we've gotten with the Terrorbyte.
Additionally they've teased some cars, of which we've gotten images of a new supercar, a musclecar and an F-1 car. Some new race modes have been mentioned as well. It's safe to assume that the content will be dripfed in stages, especially the more interesting items might be left for later.
Have the Acura NSX and new Toyota Supra been added?
Some images of the Toyota Supra and Acura NSX being converted at Benny's have been floating around - these are fake and have been put into circulation by a clickbaity asshole who shall not be named.
Are weekly updates on Tuesdays starting now?
Probably not. Rockstar always goes a little off their usual schedule with DLC drops and this is probably the same thing. It's hard to say if the sales will already change this Thursday, but I'd recommend y'all reek the benefits of the sales before you regret it.
What's going to be on sale next? / When will the next sale be up? / What's going to be in the next DLC?
If any Rockstar employees are on this sub, we'll let you know.

User Submitted Content

Informative:
Snapmatics:
We're also hosting a Summer Special DLC Discussion Megathread which will be unlocked once the DLC has dropped to keep discussions related to the release of the DLC and first wave of content in one place. Have fun playing everyone!
submitted by Dan6erbond to gtaonline [link] [comments]

20 Overlooked Single Player Indie Games

We're all familiar with the Hotline Miami's, Hollow Knight's, and Celeste's of the world. These are some of the indie games that hit the big time. Of course, for every one of these games, there's 100 other indie games that have been glossed over, relegated to a spot in a digital store few people will ever find themselves in. I wanted to bring attention to some of these lesser known indie games.
I'm going to order them according to Metacritic Critic Ratings. Some of the games at the bottom have pretty low critic ratings. I personally disagree with the low scores of these games, but it's only fair that you hear from more than just me. Keep in mind that games with only one or two User Ratings on Metacritic will not show the score. A game needs at least three User Ratings on Metacritic before the score will be shown. This is not the case for Critic Reviews.
Price will contain the U.S. PlayStation Store link to the game.
1. Hayfever
2. Valfaris
3. Four Sided Fantasy
4. Bleep Bloop
5. Horizon Shift ‘81
6. Daggerhood
7. Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight
8. Ultra Hat Dimension
9. Remothered: Tormented Fathers
10. Reverie
11. Inertial Drift
12. Cursed Castilla (Maldita Castilla EX)
13. Pato Box
14. The Count Lucanor
15. The Bunker
16. A Tale of Paper
17. Late Shift
18. SINNER: Sacrifice for Redemption
19. Verlet Swing
20. Neon Drive
Conclusion
My top 5 on the list in order would be the following: (1.) Hayfever, (2.) Valfaris, (3.) Cursed Castilla: (Maldita Castilla EX), (4.) Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight, and (5.) Bleep Bloop.
Have you played any of these games? What are some other overlooked single player indie games?
If you’re looking for more indie games to play, see my post here:
submitted by Underwhere_Overthere to PS5 [link] [comments]

My ED is just damage control for the future in my eyes

Warning: just general ED stuff, nothing in particular
So, my mom died this past August from breast/pancreatic/liver cancer. My relationship with her was very distant, very strained, I loved her but she was gone most of my life. When she was around she had bipolaschizo-affective/depression mental health problems that weren't treated.
She was obese my whole life, would put down an entire cheese danish in one sitting or finish a pack of donuts in a day, went on rants how the government was poisoning us with chemicals in our food while pulling into a mcdonald's drive through to order a large big Mac meal. She drank cases of starbucks doubleshot energy drinks, not only when she was a truck driver but also after her heart attack and having to quit her job to be on SS/disability. She was also a gambling addict, spent all her free time in casinos, playing the lottery, staring at her laptop on online slots games.
She kept passing out in public, getting sent to the ER being blown off as being dehydrated, not even being put in a room because of COVID hitting the area hard she was in. Come to find out, she was in stage 3 cancer all along. She died alone in the hospital, nobody could come and see her in her last days. I think her body just gave up, so weary from the damage she did to it her whole life, a horrible diet, sedentary lifestyle, stress, smoking since the age of 7.
My ED intensified right after her death. Something in my brain is convincing me if I stay thin, eat as clean and as little as possible, exercise enough, I can avoid dying like her. I can avoid BEING like her. She was a miserable person to be around, always negative and suspicious of anything going on around her. She didn't make any effort to look good EVER my whole life. It really stunted my "feminine" side never having a female figure that could teach me how to dress, do my hair or make-up, give me stories about how to handle relationships.
Now turning 28 in a week, I have to do everything possible to be the opposite of her or else I will become her. I have 3 kids, and don't know how to be a good loving, supportive mom while also running from my troubled past with my own. I don't want them to end up like me, or see me like I did her.
submitted by PreggoTA42020 to EdAnonymousAdults [link] [comments]

Another 10 Overlooked Single Player Indie Games

There are also some links within the first link that discuss indie local multiplayer games as well.
Introduction
We're all familiar with the Hotline Miami's, Hollow Knight's, and Celeste's of the world. These are some of the indie games that hit the big time. Of course, for every one of these games, there's 100 other indie games that have been glossed over, relegated to a spot in a digital store few people will ever find themselves in. I wanted to bring attention to some of these lesser known indie games once again.
Details About the List
I'm going to order them according to Metacritic Critic Ratings. Steam is the only one on the list with all 10 games featured (Steam has 10 of them, Switch has 9 of them, PlayStation 4 has 7 of them, and Xbox One has 5 of them), but the Switch gets more reviews than the other platforms, so I will it use the Switch version of all the games for their review scores, except #8, where I will use the Steam version, since that’s the only version of it available. The two bottom games have pretty low critic ratings (60% with 1 Critic Review and 53% with 2 Critic Reviews). I personally disagree with the low scores of these two games, but it's only fair that you hear from more than just me. Keep in mind that games with only one or two User Ratings on Metacritic will not show the score. A game needs at least three User Ratings on Metacritic before the score will be shown. This is not the case for Critic Reviews.
Currently 9 of the games are on sale on Steam right now, and 5 of them are on sale on Switch. None of them are on sale on the PlayStation 4 or Xbox One at the moment.
For the purpose of this post, I’m just going to stick with saying “achievements” and “getting all achievements” instead of “trophies” and “platinum trophy” since Steam has all 10 games on the list. You can basically substitute these with “trophies” and “platinum trophy” if you’re a PlayStation gamer. I will make mention of the two games on here that don’t include a platinum trophy however.
Platforms will include a link to the U.S. store page of the game for each platform. Price is in U.S. dollars.
1. Ultra Hat Dimension
2. Bot Vice
3. Valfaris
4. Inertial Drift
5. Golf Peaks
6. Horizon Shift ‘81
7. Pato Box
8. Primal Light
9. Tamashii
10. Neon Drive
Special shoutout to Valfaris which is my favorite game on the list and, again, one my favorite 2D run & guns ever.
Have you played any of these games? What are some other overlooked single player indie games?
submitted by Underwhere_Overthere to Games [link] [comments]

New Era of Online Crypto Casinos

I would say that I'm relatively new to Reddit and the one thing that surprised me is the number of people that still play on Bovada, Ignition, Betonline, MyBookie, etc. Don't get me wrong, great sites for sports betting and poker, but absolutely horrendous when it comes to slots and live casino games.
Hitting 1,000x on a slot on Bovada is like a once in a lifetime achievement and the live dealer provider is... awful.
Over the past month or so, I have seen this Reddit flooded with random users promoting a bunch of shitty no-name crypto casinos that have been around for like 3 days. So I figured it was my duty, as somebody who has no ownership interests in any of these online crypto casinos, to share my thoughts regarding the ones that I believe are trustworthy. All of which is based on first-hand experience and countless hours of research.
First off, for those who aren't familiar with crypto casinos, the one thing that you need to know, as an American, is that you'll need to access these sites via a VPN. Personally, I use ExpressVPN and connect to Canada (or various other regions depending on which slot provider is available). The nice thing about ExpressVPN is that you can download the app and play on your phone. All of the casinos listed below allow VPN usage. Apparently NordVPN is pretty good too, but I cannot vouch for them personally.
Second thing, KYC is not required. Honestly haven't looked into this too much, but I can tell you from first-hand experience that KYC is not required in order to register or withdraw funds. All you have to do is confirm your email address. Some people have said you get KYC'd if you try to withdraw more than $2k, but again, I can confirm that it's not true (specifically for the casinos listed below). Just make sure that you only deposit/withdraw via crypto and you'll be fine. If you think this is sketchy, then please, continue making your credit card deposits at Bovada to random shell companies based out of China.
Also, DO NOT USE COINBASE TO TRANSFER TO AND FROM THE CASINO. They banned me. It hurt. Don't make the same mistake. I recommend using BRD as an intermediary between Coinbase and the casino. Since being banned from Coinbase, I have been using crypto.com to buy and sell crypto. Nothing but good things to say thus far.
Finally, I have wagered roughly $3.5MM in total across the sites below and have spent countless hours researching them, so I'd like to think that I somewhat know what I'm talking about. In no way am I an expert and in no way am I a high roller or a whale. Just a regular guy that enjoys gambling.
Now the common theme amongst the below casinos is that you have access to game providers such as Evolution (live games), Pragmatic, NetEnt, Thunderkick, Push, etc. that you'll never find on the casinos advertised as available to US players (such as Bovada). As I'm sure you know, Betsoft slots can get old after a while.
Just a few of my personal favorite games that I recommend you check out...
Live Games: Crazy Time, Monopoly, Evolution Blackjack and Evolution Speed Baccarat
Slots: Dead or Alive 2, Money Train 2, Lil' Devil, Sweet Bonanza and The Dog House

Site #1: Roobet.com (Best for casual gamblers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, generous rakeback system, instant bitcoin deposits (they will credit your account before receiving any confirmations-- this is really nice), every so often they'll run a 24 hour promotion where if you hit 100x on slot betting at least $1 you'll be "King Roo" (basically King of the Hill) and accumulate ~$20 per minute until you're dethroned
What I don't like: Rakeback system only allows you to collect every 24 hrs/1 week/1 month, no clarity surrounding VIP status (assuming you need to be a whale), there was one instance where I won $36k on a $40 bet playing Reactoonz and was told I can only withdraw $10k per day (this was 6 months ago and never had an issue withdrawing since), lack of sports betting
My largest withdrawal (at once): $9.9k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH
Referral link to enable rakeback system without having to wager a shitload: https://roobet.com/?ref=hkgambler13 (you can also use code "hkgambler13")

Site #2: Stake.com (Best for medium-high rollers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, incredible VIP and rakeback system (weekly/monthly bonuses, rakeback can be claimed whenever, daily/monthly challenges to earn extra cash), active and friendly chat community, multiple crytpo deposit options where your account is credited in that currency (meaning your balance equivalent in USD will swing with the market-- could be seen as a con), enjoyable "Stake Original" games that have a higher RTP than 3rd party slots, averages ~2k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Can be overwhelming for first time players (Roobet is much more straight forward and easy to use)
My largest withdrawal: $13.2k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, LTC, DOGE, BCH, XRP (highly recommend-- cheap transfer fee, if any at all, and confirmed within seconds), TRX, EOS
Referral link to instantly enable 10% rakeback: https://stake.com/?c=6c2f1c60

Site #3: Gamdom.com (Best for gamers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, newly implemented rakeback system, constant "rains" in the chat (which is free money if you join in time), ability to instantly deposit and withdraw via Rust and TF2 items (could spend an hour talking about this-- generally caters to those who cannot get crypto or have to use a CC to buy crypto), averages ~1.5k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Prior to the newly implemented rakeback system rains and level-up chests were the only "rakeback", your balance is denominated in coins (1500 coins = $1 USD), browsing through their slot selection can be a pain in the ass
My largest withdrawal (at once): $7.4k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC
Referral link to receive a free chest that could be worth up to ~$53: https://gamdom.com/chase (you can also use code "chase")

Final parting words: PLEASE DO NOT GAMBLE WITH MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. Gambling is not a money making method and you will lose in the long run. The purpose of my post is to make those aware that other trustworthy online casinos are available for Americans that will (hopefully) make gambling online a bit more enjoyable!
submitted by GolfAndGamble to OnlineCryptoGambling [link] [comments]

New to online Slots? - Starter guide/tips for newbies playing online slots

Okay so I decided to create this guide with the hopes of it becoming a sticky thread for all newbies to the online slots world, to read as we deal with the same topics repeatedly and the same answers/advice are given repeatedly. Not that we do not want to help, but these would prevent you from getting into situations before its too late, or blaming casinos when you were in the wrong.
Signing up or Registration
Registration – Please carefully read the general terms and conditions about every "Right" the casino has and please note that you accepted these terms upon signing up, which means you are saying you are okay with it and agree with what the casino state about what they can and cannot do.
Claiming Bonuses
Read the bonus terms carefully before claiming any bonuses and look for the following pointers when reading the bonuses rules:
There are other bonus terms that I have not mentioned but I think the above ones are the most important as these could affect you in terms of confiscation of your winnings should you breach any of them.
Verification
This is pretty much standard for a casino to ask for some form of Identification, proof of address and proof of deposit when requesting a withdrawal. Depending on the amount win, some casinos might not need documents, however when a substantial amount has been won additional verification or security checks might be done which means a longer withdrawal time frame. Verification or KYC is necessary, however I feel when casinos ask for selfies with your ID next to you etc. in my opinion is just ridiculous. Also, I have noticed some casinos requesting your source of income to see where you get the money to make deposits etc. This seems standard and you would need to do it to get your withdrawal, however all of us have different opinions about this verification procedure.
Withdrawals
Many casinos have different withdrawal time frames and when you accept the general terms and conditions you have to a abide by them, by this I mean stop being impatient and complain that the casinos withdrawal time frames are the worst etc. As you knew this before you started playing provided you have read the terms and condition. You decided to deposit and play so then wait for your money, eventually it will come unless you breached some rule, or the casino is a rogue casino.
Here are some of the tips you should note when it comes to withdrawals at casinos:
Self-Exclusion
Self-Exclusion is a big thing these days and most cases substantial amounts are involved that are being confiscated. There are at times very little that us forum members or even AskGamblers can do when a player self-excluded and played at a sister website or similar, as we know the result and of course the house is kind of right. However, I think it's bad that a casino only realizes the self-exclusion portion on a player profile once it reaches withdrawal stage, because I feel they should have something in place that can detect that you self-excluded upon registration or before you even make your first deposit. People with gambling problems tend to self-exclude but the alternative is to read this guide - https://www.askgamblers.com/forum/topic/2152-sos-i-am-addicted-to-gambling-what-to-do/ . My advice is to keep your casino account open and do not play there anymore, because even if you request a permanent account closure, some casinos tend to self-exclude you without you knowing it and this would cause problems in future since you opened another account at their sister website or something.
submitted by Sea_Yogurtcloset_752 to bestcasinoscanada [link] [comments]

16 Yr Old losing 1800$ Gambling

Hi, over the course of 4 weeks I’ve made a total of 1800$ and lost it in the span of 2 weeks. I started with a 10$ deposit on a gambling site and I played multiple games until I eventually made my way to 200$ on live casino games then down to 60$, where I tried slots and made a total of $1200. I ended the night off with 960$ from 10$ and was fucking stoked and feeling the best I ever could. I withdrew it and over the course of 2 weeks it never came in my crypto wallet and I can’t really file for support because they would ask for my KYC and then I’d prolly not even get the funds and my dad would kill me if he found out I was gambling (especially since now i lost everything).
Following this I opened 650$ worth of csgo site gambling, csgo cases, and more gambling in general using my real money (I’ve been saving for months and my birthday just passed). I built up a 1200$ cs inventory and this past week I couldn’t hold onto it and deposited it back into these sites and have gambled it all away because I couldn’t really cash it out into real money and the rates I was getting the crypto equivalent was worse than me 650$ initial deposit so my brain told me to gamble it till I was in profit and little by little my whole inventory disappeared and I now have nothing.
This has taken a toll on me mentally and physically. I use to workout everyday and keep up with my social and now I haven’t in a week and respond to everyone every 10 hours. My schoolwork is up to par but I’ve always been a consistent student and I don’t want to slack. I didn’t think I’d be addicted to gambling as I’ve done multiple other things just as bad that haven’t affected me like this but it was probably due to the fact I made it to such an insane number from 10$ I thought I could do anything. Now here I am sharing my story and hopefully never going to gamble again (yes I’ve already started a plan to stop) and I am kind of thankful it’s happening to me now and not when I’m a working adult who could potentially be a crippling gambling addict (although 650$ is a lot of money but if it’s saved me from a future of debt I’m thankful). Now initially I was gambling for the thrill because my profits way exceeded my deposit but these past few days I’ve chased my losses and tried to actually make money (which was never the intent I always knew it was a losing game) because I was delusional to think that I could make it all back easily.
So here I am 1800$ profit down the hole and 650$ of my own money down the hole. I’ve been gambling little amounts since quarantine because I was bored out of my mind but they would be at intervals of like 10$ every other week or so (which is still bad but not even close to as bad as this month). I’m also physically and mentally drained and I haven’t felt worse in a long time. The craziest thing is that no one knows besides who I told that I’m even like this right now and I seem completely normal. I dont have any cravings to gamble right now and hopefully I won’t in the near future as I have accepted my losses and started to do online work to get it back (without gambling). It’s also a test of willpower to see if I relapse or not which I hope I don’t
Now your probably asking me why I wouldn’t just cash out my 1200$ inventory and I can’t even give you a proper answer to that one. It’s mainly because I saw that I’d be selling it at 60-65% lf it’s marker value which breaks even with what I spent and then you have to add in the commission from the website and the fact that crypto is really high rn so the amount I’d be getting isn’t as much as it could’ve been (although I could just hold it it’s bound to go up long term ETH and BTC specifically). So I thought that if I could deposit all my skins on the gambling sites (they take it at like 70% of the market value) and then proceed to gamble it all the way up till 1200$ I could cash it out without losing that humongous chunk of profit because I’m very greedy and pessimistic when it comes to settling down for a reasonable price. Then it went downhill and I lost everything. My luck in every game was horrible I was literally losing every game I played (which doesn’t surprise me it’s like these websites know when your desperate and when your not).
Moral of the story is don’t gamble and if you do use an amount your comfortable with losing. If you do and you lose don’t go back in and if you do and you win cash out and don’t go back in because once you win you get this feeling that you could profit if you just put in a lil more and this is when you’re sucked in. There are better ways to make money (I invested in Bitcoin when I was younger and my profits r insane but I will never touch my btc wallet for money because it’s a long term investment). Don’t chase your losses either if you lose accept that you’ve lost and you won’t be digging yourself deeper in a hole you can’t get out of. I actually hope that you lose the first time you gamble because you’ll probably stay away from it which is way valuable than any sort of winnings you would’ve had.
I should say though that not all of it is your fault (most of it is tho). Online gambling is as enticing as ever especially during a pandemic, and although most of these sites always say “don’t go on unless your 18+” they know that a lot of underage people use their website. These big sites like csgo case opening sites are filled with shiny bright coloured cases with a price tag on them (I’m not saying that they encourage youth gambling but I am saying the layout of the website is appealing to children). Youth are attracted to these shiny colourful cases and they as a result are more likely to deposit these shiny looking cases (this sounds like a stretch but this is my opinion so feel free to disagree). It’s also the fact that it’s SO EASY to deposit onto these sites and withdraw. Since most teenagers have a debit card (or even buying prepaid cards works on most of them), it takes a quick 3 minutes to put on a few hundred dollars if you really wanted to. The withdrawals aren’t usually restricted either unless it’s big amounts in the thousands (which most kids don’t have in the first place) meaning it looks like an easy way to make money and cash out. Most of these sites won’t push for age verification because it’s easy money when teenagers deposit money. And before they even go on these websites, games like csgo and dota 2 have BUILT IN GAMBLING SYSTEMS. These case and cosmetic openings in the game usually cost a small sum of money but are usually the start of thjs gambling interest especially when they get something good from the case and want to put more down. I’d call myself a lucky person considering I’ve unboxed 2 knives, and a red and multiple pinks in a kind of small amount of cases compared to the average person and this just drove me to try my luck on all these gambling sites since I had good luck in the game. These websites and games aren’t “anti- teenage gambling”.
If you read all this and are looking for a reason not to gamble, I hope this helped you and if u read thru all this thanks for listening to my story
TL:DR I’m a 16 year old who made 1800 gambling, then used all my savings after losing some, and am at 0$ currently and physically and mentally drained
submitted by Odd_Woodpecker9013 to GamblingAddiction [link] [comments]

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) - Deep Dive Research - Part 1

TL:DR
Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:
  1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
  2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.
As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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