Fellow retards,
I noticed that this sub is going to hit 2 million people soon, and I have decided to put aside my project assignments to write this DD (albeit more towards psychologically) on why luck is extremely important in the stock market, and what you can do to potentially get in favor of luck. Before I start, I want to congratulate you on being here. You have came a long way in life, and there’s more to come. Be happy.
TLDR at the last paragraph.
I want to talk mainly 3 things; luck, the psychology behind investing and what you should do to maximize profits.
Luck
In the book 'The Drunkard's Walk', under chapter of 'Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion', and I quote: "In 1978, Koppett revealed a system that he claimed could determine, by the end of January every year, whether the stock market would go up or down in that calendar year. His system had correctly predicted the market, he said, for the past eleven years. Of course, stock-picking systems are easy to identify in hindsight; the true test is whether they will work in the future. Koppett's system passed that test too: judging the market by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it worked for eleven straight years, from 1979 through 1989, got it wrong in 1990, and was correct again every year until 1998. But although Koppett's predictions were correct for a streak of eighteen out of nineteen years, I feel confident in asserting that his streak involved no skill whatsoever. Why? Because Leonard Koppett was a columnist for Sporting News, and his system was based on the results of the Super Bowl, the championship game of professional football. Whenever the team from the (original) National Football league won, the stock market, he predicted, would rise."
In the book 'Fooled by Randomness', the Prologue mentioned "...luck disguised and perceived as nonluck (that is, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (that is, determinism). "
In the book ‘The Black Swan’ by Taleb Nassim Nicholas, Page 119 mentioned " A successful person will try to convince you that his achievements could not possibly be accidental, just as a gambler who wins at roulette seven times in a row will explain to you that the odds against such a streak are one in several million, so you either have to believe some transcendental intervention is in play or accept his skills and insight in picking the winning numbers." More often than not, luck is rarely on your side. I can provide many other articles, but I believe you get the point. To emphasize it, "the habit of mistaking luck for skill is most prevalent - and most conspicuous - and that is the world of markets."
So why am I saying all these? What I am trying to imply is, do appreciate your GME gains, or whatever astronomical gains that you have. These gains, more often than not, are results of extremely lucky happenstances, where most people are incapable of harnessing them. Yes, there are tons of good DDs. But you yourselves are incredibly lucky to be part of WSB, and personally reading the DDs yourselves, and lucky enough to decide that you would be retarded enough to take the risk. You should be happy and grateful about it, because like I said, this is hugely, and heavily dependent on luck. Humans are flawed, because we have the tendency to look for specific causes that lead to effects. We often find it hard to accept that an event can be the result of total randomness, but sometimes it is. In financial forecasting, several times random volatility is mistaken for accurate prediction. In a group of many analysts, it is normal to expect that someone's predictions will turn out to be true (u/DeepFuckingValue). So, in case you get way too ahead of yourselves thinking you are absolutely a genius for having triple percentage gains in your portfolio, remember you're most likely just lucky. And since you're lucky, be appreciative and do not be complacent.
Psychology behind Investing
Several studies have fooled people into believing they are in control of something they actually have no control over. In fact, human decision-making shows systematic simplifications and deviations from the tenets of rationality (‘heuristics’) that may lead to suboptimal decisional outcomes (‘cognitive biases’). There are currently three prevailing theoretical perspectives on the origin of heuristics and cognitive biases: a cognitive-psychological, an ecological and an evolutionary perspective. To simplify that, it basically means that cognitive biases arise from intrinsic brain mechanisms that are fundamental for the working of our neural networks. Your mind is always on the cautious side of things, because it is trying to protect you.
Remember a time when you were very near the edge of a building/cliff, and all of a sudden you feel hypersensitive to the surrounding around you? You are aware of every rocks and stones that might sabotage you. Another example can be that you shiver when peeing, because your body is exaggerating the signal that you are rapidly losing body heat, and is trying to shiver up the muscle fiber to keep you warm, etc. You get the idea.
This unfortunately, applies in investing as well. Your mind will inevitably forces you to be on the safer side. A dip? Oh no... you panic. But relax, that is normal. In my last point, I will explain what you can do to overcome it.
What you can do to stay calm?
So now you know that it is in human nature to be a paper handed bitch. The first step is realizing that your own neural networks are playing a huge part in giving you a paper hand. When you realized that it is your own mind that is keeping you on the safer side, perhaps you can be more self-aware. Being impatient in the market is the worst mistake that you would commit while investing in the stocks. You have to know that if you do not have good patience in the market then you would find difficulty in getting the right stocks for your investment. You have to finally take your own decisions when you wish to select the stocks. Remember however, you do have to be lucky to hit the jackpot on certain investments as per my first point.
Confirmation bias is also a bitch. As philosopher Francis Bacon put it in 1620, "the human understanding, once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances that confirm it, and though the contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that this opinion will remain unshaken." This happens very often in WSB, and I want you to be cautious as well. To show you how easy confirmation bias is, imagine I have 5 numbers here. After presenting you these numbers, I want you to guess what is the rule of the game. Here are the 5 numbers: 4 6 8 10 12. What will your next 3 numbers be? What is the rule of the game? The rule is: Increasing Numbers, the next 3 numbers can be 13 14 15 Most of you might have guessed "increasing even numbers and provided with 14 16 18, when in fact it is not.
Luck does not solely come from deciding whether to listen to another retard's DD on a thread, and YOLO-ing your life savings onto some stocks. It also comes in the form of your birth status, etc. Having a $100,000 head start in the stock market, is almost always better than someone having $1000 as a starting capital (or worse still, negative capital simply because your parents are poor, that's unlucky).
That being said, I believe all of us here are in some way privileged to be gathered here and discussing individually. The poor kids in some countries have to fight for clean water and food. So the next time you realized that you are earning money in the stock market, remember, it is incredibly hard to do it, and you should be proud of yourselves. And in the scenario where you lose your money, well, you shouldn't be surprised either way. You are bound to be losing.
Here are some books you can refer to if you're interested: The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow (How Randomness Rules Our Lives), Fooled by Randomness by Taleb N, The Black Swan by Taleb N, Who’s in Charge? by Michael S. Gazzaniga (on Free will and the science of the brain), Success and Luck by Robert H. Frank, The Most Good You Can Do (How effective altruism is changing ideas about living ethically) by Peter Singer.
Clarification: Some people mentioned if this post was directed to "diminish the contributions of skill and the hard effort of anyone". Absolutely not. ~~This post is assuming that in the top few % (if you're reading this, yourself included), everyone is just as talented.~~ But to be part of that 1% in that 1%, to be the richest among the richest, you have to be incredibly lucky.
TLDR: If you make huge gains, go and give some of it to other people that may not have been so lucky. Go and give it to the homeless people at the unemployment line, who ain't so lucky as you. Maybe buy him food. Get him clothes. Donate to your local charities. Most importantly, give it back to your parents, because your parents are the one who, most likely, set you up in this direction, and you are lucky enough to be here today. If you did not make any gains, remember, it is perfectly okay.
Shorter TLDR: Be happy, be grateful.
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

This is the story about me as an ex-believer of Butt. Butt has made me significantly richer, but it has also twisted my mind, and made me incredibly greedy and full of regret and lament due to huge, unrealized profit on paper. I would like to share my story here (BE AWARE, WALL OF TEXT), hoping it would be interesting/useful to provide a glimpse into the mind of an ex-HODLEbeliever, at the same time, perhaps this sub could help me "un-twist" my mind.
This is a throwaway account.
EDIT: FORMATTING
The GPU Miner
I learned about Butt back in 2011, when it looked like an interesting and novel idea. Soon after, I started mining, first on the CPU, then on the GPU, then I learned about mining pools. Then I started adding more GPUs. Before I knew it, I had hundreds of Butts in my wallet.
Then I heard about MtGox. At the time, the price of Butts just recovered from a big crash, pumping from ~$1 to ~$17. Looked like a pretty good deal to me, so I sold them all. I blew the money on a nice vacation.
Right after coming back from the vacation, Butt's price exploded, first to $30, then $50, then it went into triple digits. Of course I became incredibly salty: selling at $17 suddenly became the greatest financial mistake I've ever committed up to that point in my life. That PTSD-like experience would dictate much of my behavior in the next stage.

The ASIC Miner
I briefly contemplated buying back those Bitcoins I've sold, but decided that's too risky. Mining looked like a better idea instinctively, although at the time I didn't realize why, since I never realized the negative-sum nature of the game until much later. GPU mining was becoming less and less profitable around that time, but there's a group of people who just came up with those shiny new ASIC miners, capable of mining at rates measured with GH/s instead of MH/s.
Butts began to accumulate in my wallet again, and while it took longer this time, I eventually hit triple digits again. Eventually, the total hashrate became so high, even the ASIC miner wasn't profitable anymore so I stopped mining, and ended up with some 200 Bitcoins. Having witnessed what Bitcoin is truly capable of (price wise), and still suffering the PTSD from last time, I swore I'll never sell my stash ever again. I carefully put the coins in cold storage, safeguarded from any threat, and made multiple backups of the private key. Then I just pretended I didn't even have those Bitcoins and never thought about them again.

The MtGox bubble
For months, I forgot about those coins and simply carried on with my life, feeling good with myself because I knew I was on the boat to the next great financial evolution. At the time, I truly believed that Bitcoin was the future of money, and the price represents its adoption, and it's free from manipulation because it's traded globally 24/7 on multiple exchanges, which makes it too hard to manipulate.
Then the MtGox bubble happened and the price pumped into 4-digits.
Now, there's this interesting psychological thing which I would like to call "FOCO / Fear of Cashing Out". When the price pumps, I held onto my stash even harder like my dear life, because if it pumped 10x today, who knows it's not going to pump by 100x in the future? At least, that's precisely how I felt back then. Rationally, I knew it's a highly volatile, purely speculative asset, and I knew I should at least sell _some_ to lock in my profits. I sent 10BTC to Bitstamp, planning to sell them, but ultimately I was only able to sell one at the price of $890, because the idea of selling 10 was just too scary.
I have reflected on this experience countless times, and at first, I attributed it to my PTSD, until I started reading about other people's experiences (often from posts linked in this sub) and saw similar behaviors. In fact, I didn't come up with the term FOCO myself, instead, I learned it from this other post that I read on this sub about another butter who was once massively in profit but ultimately lost half of his investment.
Anyways, as we all know from history, MtGox soon announced its insolvency, and the price crashed all the way to 1/10 of ATH. Having sold only one Butt, of course I was salty and kept blaming myself for not having sold more. But I still believed in the tech! So I HODL'ed onto the rest of my stash even harder, not touching a single Butt until 2017. However, during the entire time up to this point, I was very aware that Butt could become a failed experiment and go to zero, so I did not increase my exposure by buying any.

The 2017 Mania
After staying largely flat for 3 years, finally Butt's price had been awakened. During the first half of 2017, I felt confident and incredibly smart, thinking HODLing through those 3 years was the best thing I've ever done. Whenever I talked about Butt with my friends, I maintained my cool and kept telling them that Butt is only an experiment, was highly risky, and one should only buy if he/she is ok with losing the money. Internally though, I felt like a genius, and I kept wondering why would _anyone_ in this world invest in stupid, traditional investments like stocks or real estate.
Then late 2017 came and the price went parabolic. Suddenly I was a multi-millionaire on paper! My FOCO and PTSD became even more intensive. Instead of selling, I withdrew all Butts I had on exchanges to my cold wallet. During the weeks around the ATH, I tried to convince myself to sell multiple times, but I couldn't. In my mind, I was sure Butt was going to 1 million or even more. I was so sure of it, when the price pulled back to around 10K, I recommended one of my friends to "buy a little bit and HODL".

The 2018 Crash
Then the price crashed hard, bouncing back a few times before eventually stabilized around 6k. Of course I was going to HODL like I did after 2013! Even harder this time! After all, that was the best thing I've ever done in my life!
Little did I think about what that meant to me psychologically. During the 2013 HODL session, even at the top, the on-paper value of the Butts was in the ~200k range, which soon collapsed into ~30k at the bottom. Losing $30k would suck, but it wouldn't have been life-changing, and I was mentally ready to lose that amount.
This time was different - at the time I didn't realize it, but there was no way I was mentally ready to lose multiple millions. As the price went down, I was wondering why that for the first time, there was a tremendous amount of fear in my mind, and my once strong hands had become shaky. I became obsessed with the price chart. I became a daily visitor of /ButtMarkets. I followed traders on Twitter and YouTube, desperately trying to gain some clarity about the future of Butt price. Looking back at that, it was so laughable that I was basically letting the Tether printer dictate my emotions, but that's how I genuinely felt and behaved back then.

Of course, much of this I only realized through self-reflection much later on. At the time, I was purely driven by emotion. Greediness and fear. There was rational thinking too, but they were so weak in the face of my overwhelming emotion, and was powerless to change my behavior. Regardless, I was trying as hard as I can to HODL on with my shaky hands.

Capitulation
In Nov 2013, the price finally dropped below 6k which was thought to be the bottom. I had a feeling that that was coming, and I actually did something right out of fear - I moved all my Butts onto an exchange, and set a stop loss order around 5.8k. One day I woke up and realized the stop-loss had been triggered.
Suddenly I had somewhere around a million $ on the exchange and 0 Butts.
Looking back, I certainly wish I had realized what a fortunate spot I was in. I turned my initial investment of the ASIC miner (around 70K) into over a million.
But no. To my brain, I did not gain a million. Instead, I "lost" all the millions I had on paper at the ATH. I was full of anger, sadness, frustration, and despair.

The Gambler
I refused to accept the "loss". I want to be the "multi-millionaire" that I once was, at least on paper. I decided to make it all back by day trading. It was funny that it was literally the day in my life when I was the richest, but I felt the poorest.
Realizing that margins were dangerous, I was determined to never touch that. Instead, I would increase my return myself by deploying the huge amount of cash I had. Genius idea, right? Long story short, I bought high and sold low, and my cash steadily went down while I kept telling myself "it's alright, just make it all back in the next trade". Eventually, I FOMO'ed into the pump of April 2019 then panic sold when it dropped, TWICE on subsequent days in the exact same way. I lost 100k in 2 days.
That was my wake-up call that my "trading" was literally setting my money on fire. I decided to pull my "filthy fiat" out. What's left of it, anyway: 500k was all I had left.

The Skeptical
The 2019 pump (on April 1 when the price suddenly shot up from ~4k to 5k in a matter of minutes) looked way too unnatural and manipulated to me (and partially, my mind was trying to cope with the fact I lost money in a "bull market"). For the first time, I began to doubt my core beliefs about Butt: that it's the future of money, that it can't be manipulated because it's globally traded 24/7, that the price reflects its adoption. Around that time, I began to check this sub.
Quickly I've learned about Tether and their shady practices. How naive was I! Being an IT professional, I was fully aware of the episode of the MtGox Willy Bot, yet I thought it was an isolated case and wouldn't happen again.
To be honest, at first, much of the reading and researching that I did was out of the need to cope: I wanted to prove that it's not that I don't have "strong hands" anymore, but it's because the market was manipulated. However, soon I realized that the 2017 bull run was also (at least partially) due to market manipulation.

I decide to pull out of crypto space and never think about it again.

The Tormented
...until the 2020 "bull run". Now, I'm fully aware that Butts has achieved no meaningful adoption at all, and the game has always been negative-sum in nature (which I actually benefited from as a miner), and that Tether has printed 17 billion to prop up the market.
But I'm still full of regret and sadness, and I've become obsessed with the price chart again. It's hard for me to deal with the fact that I had cursed myself countless times for not selling at 19K, and yet Butt is literally at that price again. I feel happy whenever the price crashes, and salty when it pumps, even when I consciously know that it's mostly being painted by Tether, and that it has nothing to do with me: I'm not getting back into that ponzi(-like).
Rationally, I fully realize that I've been incredibly lucky in this whole ordeal. Half a million is a lot of money, and to be fair it's somewhat life-changing (I'm a professional that makes low-6-figures). Had I bought in during the 2017 bull run, be it DCA or YOLO FOMO or anything, it's very very likely that I would've ended up losing money. I am much much luckier than most of my fellow Butters (at the expense of some of them).
However, the whole experience also did indescribable things to my mind. I often lament on why I didn't sell during the 2017 ATH, or why I didn't buy back in during the 2018 low, even now that I fully understand that it's a Ponzi-like scheme, and normally I would have moral reservations about participating in such schemes (even if I were to win). I think the experience has "awakened" the greediness in me, almost some kind of drugs.
I realize that this obsession and dwelling in the past have done a tremendous amount of harm to me. I find it hard to enjoy or appreciate life anymore. Anything I can achieve in life pales in comparison against the millions I've lost on paper. My productivity at work dropped. But I don't want to be like this: I have never wanted to "become rich quick". I want to be an accomplished professional, earning what I have with my own abilities to contribute to society. I don't want to be stuck in this "get rich quick" dream anymore. I want to come to terms with what has happened, and make the best of it by carrying on with my life and be a better person.

I'm hoping to draw on the wisdom of this sub: I've been reading many of the posts in this sub, and I think you guys have demonstrated your critical thinking, objectiveness, kindness (even if many of the posts are somewhat harsh in a humourous way), and general wisdom about life. I would appreciate any comments, insight, or advice you may have. At the same time, I hope you find such an experience as mine interesting and may provide some answers as to why this negative-sum game could've kept going for so long.

Period: 72.40 days

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Dr. Jordan B. Peterson
Faculty of Psychology
University of Toronto
JCT: John Von Neumann said: Economic questions arise in a
more elementary manner in the Theory of Games. After my
degree in Systems Engineering, I was Teaching Assistant of
Canada's only Mathematics of Gambling Course at Carleton
University for 4 years in the late 1970s and became a
professional gambler for over 42 years! Google for Great
Canadian Gambler and I come up. I was known as "The
Professor" at the Trump Taj Mahal Poker room of "Rounders"
fame in the 1990s. I hope to provide such elementary insight
into Pareto Distributions.
JP: Pareto Distributions https:youtu.be/TcEWRykSgwE
- Creative production in any domain, artistic, food
production, novels, money generated, companies generated,
goals in hockey, paintings, human productivity, follows
Pareto Principle that half the production is done by the
square root of players. With 10 employees, 3 do the half the
work. 10,000 employees, 100 do half the work.
JCT: It would not apply to non-human animals. Take bees.
Presume a bee brings back 1 gram of pollen per day on
average. Under a Pareto Distribution where:
P(e)= Elite Bee Production; P(l)= Lesser Bee Production
So P(e)*sqrt(n) = .5 = P(l)*(n-sqrt(n))
Elite Production is Factor: (sqrt(n)-1) bigger than P(l).
Hive of 4 bees:
2 bees bring in 2g pollen, other 2 bring in 2g: Factor = 1.
Hive of 9 bees:
3 bees bring in 4.5g, other 6 bees bring in 4.5g
Elite brings 4.5g/3=1.5g, Lesser brings 4.5g/6=.75g: F=2
Hive of 16 bees:
Elite brings 8g/4=2g, Lesser bee brings 8g/12=.67g: F=3
Hive of 25 bees:
Elite 12.5g/5=2.5g, Lesser brings 12.5g/20=.625g: F-4
Hive of 100 bees
Elite 50g/10=5g, Lesser bee 50g/90=.55g: F=9
Hive of 10,000 bees:
Elite 5000g/100=50g, Lesser 5000g/9,900=.505g F=99
Hive of 1,000,000 bees:
Elite 500kg/1k=500g, Lesser 500kg/999k=.5005g: F=999.
So in a hive of a million bees, the 999,000 Lesser bees
would bring in half a gram each rather than a whole gram
while an elite bee brings in half a kilo! Only because of
the size of the hive? Doubtful.
Though I accept a Pareto Distribution is observed in the
distribution of human productivity and other areas, I see no
reason for it to occur in production by non-humans.
- Pareto Distributions govern distribution of money. Why 1%
have the overwhelming amount and 1/10 of that 1% has almost
all of that. The richest 100 have as much money as the
bottom 2.5B. Across all creating domains. Something like a
natural law.
JCT: So an Elite human produces 50,000 times what a Lesser
human produces?
JP: Marxism is ignorant of the Pareto principle
https:youtu.be/i0iL0ixoZYo
- Pareto distribution as a function of some fundamental
force we don't understand!
- People compete to produce. Almost everybody produces zero,
they lose everything. Small minority successful, hyper-
minority insanely successful. 100 composers, 10 write music
that's played. Of their 1,000 songs, 30 are played 50% of
the time.
JCT: "Compete to produce" is key. It's not that so many
produce zero but that they could not or would not be able to
sell what they produced. In a game with not enough money,
who rates success in selling?
MATTHEW PRINCIPLE OF POSITIVE FEEDBACK "TAKEN FROM"
- It's expressed from the Matthew Principle: "To those who
have everything, more will be given, and from those who have
nothing, everything will be taken." A vicious statement.
This happens everywhere.
JCT: This is Christ's most quoted verse, 7 times. In 1)
Matthew 13:10 and 2) 25:29; in 3) Luke 8:10 and 4) 19:26,
again in 5) Marc 4:25, and twice more in the deleted but
newly-found Nag Hammadi scrolls in 6) Thomas 41 and 7)
Apocalypse of Peter (VII,3) 83:27. That's how important the
Matthew-Luke-Marc-Thomas-Peter Principle is.
In 1995, my post "Christ spoke in Differential Equations
suggesting this was a Differential Equation (which shows how
things change over time) offended the internet world so
badly that I was voted July Kook-of-the-Month!
The key word is "taken." How would pollen be taken from some
bees and given to others as money is taken from some humans
who have nothing and given to others who have abundance? How
do you take from those who have nothing? Only through
increased debt in a money system!
JP: - Winning increases chances of more winning. Spirals out
of control until a few have all the money. We don't know
what to do about that? Marx said: Capital tended to
accumulate into the hands of the fewer and fewer people, a
flaw in the capitalist system. That's wrong, it is not a
flaw, it's a feature of every system we've ever set up and
how it operates.
JCT: Even if Marx didn't understand what force was taking
from the poor to give to the rich, he still found that to be
a flaw. And even if it's been a feature of every system ever
set up by the rulers and how it operates, as Jesus defined
and named the problem in Matthew, he also explained what to
do about that in Paul Corr II, 8:14.
JP: As soon as you set up production, you set up a
competition and the spoils go disproportionately to a tiny
percentage of people. So the rest of the people starve.
Tendency is to be distributed inequitably. If you let a
monetary system run, all the money ends up in the hands of a
very small number. And any creative endeavour too.
JCT: You farm your land, I farm mine, where's the
competition? Sure, you may grow more than me but why would I
end up not having enough? Why should all the goods be given
disproportionally to you and be taken from me so I should
starve? It can only be because competition is in selling the
production for scarce money, not in growing it.
JP: Marxism is ignorant of the Pareto principle
https:youtu.be/i0iL0ixoZYo
- If you don't have any money, it's really hard to get some.
Once you have some, it's not so hard to get some more.
JCT: Because having some gets you more from positive
feedback with no work.
JP: But if you're at zero, Jesus man, you're in the reverse
situation. You're poor, you don't have anything, no one
wants to talk to you, you can't get out of it because you're
too poor to get out of it, You're penalized by the economic
system because you can't even afford to start playing the
game. You're stuck at zero. And you can't get out.
JCT: Jesus called when all has been taken away from you
living in the "alley where men weep and gnash their teeth."
- The revolutionary types tell the people stuck at zero, why
don't you burn the whole God-Damned thing to the ground?
Because, maybe in the next iteration, you won't be stuck at
zero. And for young men, that's a hell of a call. They're
already expendable, biologically, that makes them more
adventurous and risk-taking. Maybe why they wear the Che
Gueverra T-shirt. Hey, I'm stuck at zero, I'd rather be
with the romantic burning everything to the ground than stay
locked in my immobile position.
JCT: Thoughout all history people have been pushed to revolt
by their poverty through growing debts, not scarcity. But
Jesus did offer a better way used in his commune "The Poor."
Don't think when he said to the rich man "Give your money to
the poor and follow me" he meant give it to the drunks in
the street. He meant "give it to our commune Treasurer who
can buy others out of debt.
It is clear from your descriptions that Pareto Distributions
arise as a function of positive feedback on wealth and debt.
JP: Pareto Distributions https:youtu.be/TcEWRykSgwE
- Monopoly: One person ends up with all the money is the
inevitable consequence of multiple trades that are conducted
randomly. Get 1,000 people to play a trading game each with
$100 and they have to trade with another person by flipping
a coin, I win the coin toss, you win, I give you a dollar.
If we all play that long enough, 1 person will end up with
all the money and everyone else will stack up at zero.
JCT: Sure, Risk of Ruin flipping coins with no edge to
either player with "b" bets is exp(-2(0)b/s^2)= 1. Flipping
coins, or playing War, eventually a player will hit a streak
bad enough to break him. But there is no positive feedback
causing the guy with more cards or more bets to win faster
though the guy with more cards or more bets has lower risk
of ruin.
JP: So it's a deeply built feature of systems of creative
production and no one really knows what to do about it.
Because the danger is all the resources get funnelled to a
tiny minority at the top. A huge section of the population
stacks up at zero. To blame that on the oppressive nature of
the system is to radically underestimate the complexity of
the problem.
JCT: That's a positive feedback where those up now win
faster on account of their bigger bankroll. Winning faster
with a bigger bankroll, not surviving more. That's how the
mort-gage death-gamble contract works, all the resources get
funnelled to the tiny surviving minority in the banks.
JP: "Socialism will never work" https://youtu.be/rl-JYD7Ss8A
- How you got your success.. more opportunities..
Opportunities don't multiply linearly but exponentially.
- When you start moving up, it's faster and faster.. and get
to a point where you have so many you don't know what to do
with them. A non-linear improvement. Downside is the same.
Seems to be how the world works.. There's a center point
unstable, things improve, then they improve exponentially.
Or they fall and they fall off exponentially. That seems to
be what's driving inequality. You start to succeed and the
probability that you succeed starts to expand. We don't know
how to control it. Same with stars. A few stars in the Milky
Way have all the matter. It applies to height of the trees
in the jungle.
JCT: Exponentiality is caused by positive feedback, where
the rate of change is a function of how much you already
have. Stars experience the positive feedback of gravity.
Bigger stars exert more pull as a function of their size.
Taller trees experience positive feedback of more sunlight
as a function of their height.
JP: If we could come up with a way to flatten inequality,
that would be a good thing.
JCT: Jesus who wrote the Matthew Principle also offered a
way to flatten inequality. See Paul Corr II: 8:14 at the end
and won't give it away now.
JP: But the empirical evidence suggests, if you look at the
attempts to alleviate inequality over the last 200 years,
whether left- or right-wing governments, made absolutely no
difference. The only thing to flatten inequality are
catastrophes, wars, revolutions. The price of radical
redistribution is death. No one has come up with a system.
JCT: Without having defined the cause of the positive
feedback, of course, they all failed to stop or mitigate it.
But Jesus defined the cause and succeeded in alleviating it.
JP: It's not a function of our economic or political
systems, or if it is, it's at such a deep level that we
don't know what drives it and we certainly don't know how to
control it.
JCT: In the Matthew Principle verses, he did mention that it
is at such a deep level that "they will forever be hearing
without hearing and seeing without seeing or understanding"
what's driving it or how to control it. Jesus did. Paul Corr
II 8:14
JP: Pareto Distributions https:youtu.be/TcEWRykSgwE :
- No one actually knows how to effectively shovel resources
from the minority that controls almost everything to the
majority that has almost nothing in any consistent way.
Because as you shovel money down, it tends to move right
back up. And it's a big problem.
JCT: Jesus did. Forget shoveling it from the rich to the
poor, stop the shovelling from the poor to the rich first.
Until the force that makes money "tend to move right back
up" is identified, how can it be stopped? And then Paul Corr
II 8:14 even if there is no positive feedback.
JP: After the Ukrainian peasants were granted their land and
started to become farmers, a tiny minority of them became
extremely successful and those people produced almost all of
the food for Russia and Ukraine.
JCT: Who and what stopped the others from also producing
food so that only the successful ones keep could producing
and selling?
JP: Poverty causes crime? Wrong! - The Gini coefficient
https:youtu.be/M3XYHPAwBzE
- Gini Coefficient represents how much inequality of income
distribution in a geographical area.
- You hear poverty causes crime, a left-wing idea. It's
wrong, seriously wrong, importantly, definititely wrong.
- Relative poverty causes crime. Poverty is when you don't
have enough to eat. Relative poverty is when the guy next
door has a much better car
JCT: When you don't have enough to eat, that's not
poverty unless there's plenty of good and you can't afford
any, it's scarcity. Poverty is when you don't have enough
money to get into the game. What crime would be committed
when there's no poverty? Scarcity may not cause much crime
but poverty causes lots.
JP: Right wing thinks the spoils go to who deserves them.
JCT: If it were a natural risk of ruin function, sure, but
if it's a positive feedback from those who do not have to
those who have, getting more without work for having more,
it is unearned income.
JP: Every man can go for it and do his best and the winner wins
and the loser loses. Don't ask me to fix it, I don't want
to. I find it distasteful to attempt to fix it.
JCT: I would too if it were a natural force. But if it's a
man-made systemic force taking from the negatives to give to
the positives, I would end it. Risk of ruin in a fair game
is not exponential. If it is exponential, it's human-caused
taking from one to give to another.
JP: You shouldn't let income distribution become too unequal
because it tends to get out of hand, towards a few people
having everything and almost everyone else having nothing.
It's as natural consequence of economic progression.
JCT: A few having everything and everyone else having
nothing is not a natural consequence of economic progression
but of positive feedback on winning.
JP: The more unequal you let your society get, the higher
the probability of death through violent causes. If men see
status differences but have no means of moving forward, they
turn to aggression as a way of establishing dominance.
JCT: So if violence is generated by inequality, why not
crime too?
JP: The Fundamental Flaws Of Marxism And Postmodernism
https://youtu.be/HdN9RTo-9G8
- How can people be sane with all the brutality in life?
JCT: The force creating a competition to the death, your
having nothing and starving will engender brutal resistance,
is so ingrained, it's like playing musical chairs to the
death, a death-gamble, a mort-gage. All you can do is say:
There, but for the grace of God, go I too."
JP: Suffering is part of being, not a consequence of social
organization..
JCT: The force taking from the hungry to feed the full is a
consequence of social orgainzation. Jesus identified it in
the Parables of the Talents and of the Minas:
"The law is: "to those who have will more be given and
from those who have not, even what they have will be
taken away! You should have brought me what was mine
with interest! Take what is his and give to him who has
and throw him into the alley where men weep and gnash
their teeth."
Jesus says the Pareto Distribution caused by the Matthew
Differential Equation is the force taking from the negatives
to give to the positives: interest on loans.
And how would Jesus solve the inequality caused by either
lesser production rates or usury to have a Christian
Commune is given in Paul Corrinthians II, 8:14:
"Your abundance should at the present time be a supply
for their want to that later, their abundance may be a
supply for your want; in that way, he who gathers much
doesn't have too much and he who gathers little doesn't
have too little, that there be equality."
So he who gathers much has lots but not too much and he who
gathers little has less but not too little though later
trying to win and pay it back. That's the loveliest line in
the Bible, the ethos of a Christian Commune where the Pareto
Distribution can not arise whether natural or unnatural
inequality if the winners help the losers become winners
too.
From: http://SmartestMan.Ca/poembibl
HOW INTEREST ARISES
One tale to show how interest occurs quite easily,
Especially when humans find themselves in scarcity:
A father leaving his estate, his sons he has but four,
To each of them he gives a sac of seed to grow some more.
The first son had misfortune due to natural event,
The loss of crop to a tornado, the predicament.
The second son, he suffered too, with locusts in his field,
His children soon would starve after an insufficient yield.
The third son had a tiny crop, but it was touch-and-go,
He had eight kids who ate most everything that he could grow.
The fourth son's crop was bountiful, his granaries were full.
His brothers asked if some spare seeds might be available.
In his right ear he heard advice that he knew to be true,
"Do help them out and should you fail, they'll be there helping you."
But in his wrong ear he heard words so greedy in their tone,
"Don't risk security for your success was all your own.
But if you rent your seeds to them and gain from what they reap,
You soon won't have to work with interest to earn your keep."
At some point in man's history, a brother chose that way,
Enslaved with debt all of the others lasting to this day.
WHO THE LORD MUST BE
Ezekiel 34:27 says the poor will know,
When they've been liberated from those who've enslaved them so.
The one who breaks the evil bars of yoke of slavery,
He'll be their savior, that's for sure. No other can he be.
NEW TESTAMENT
Like Nehemiah, Jesus knew a Lord must set them free,
And fight the men who had imposed the yoke of slavery.
In Luke 4 verse 18 he says "Anointed by the Lord,
I preach the good news to the poor, a world they can afford.
The prisoners shall be set free, oppressed shall be released,
When comes the year of our Lord's favor, you will surely feast."
In Matthew chapter 13:10, it tells where he was asked,
Why did he speak in parables so meanings they were masked?
"The reason for disguise of message," note the words he said:
"It all comes down to interest, the theme affects the head.
To those who have abundance will be given even more,
From those without abundance will be taken from their store."
This mathematical equation states the function best,
This Biblical description of the function interest.
To those with spare, the positives, they'll get some extra perks,
And those with none, they'll have to pay, that's how the system works.
The rich get richer, poor get poorer. It's not brotherhood.
It's obvious that interest is Reverse-Robin-Hood.
This rule of more abundance was repeated down the line,
In Matthew 13:12 and 25 verse 29,
In Luke 19 verse 26, with 8:18 as well,
In Marc 4:25, five times Christ used these words for Hell.
In Thomas 41 from Nag Hammadi scrolls anew,
Apocalypse of Peter 83:27 too
Omitted from the Bible but in Gnostic Text is found,
The greatest of all Christian laws for economics sound.
St. Thomas in verse 95's where Jesus said it best:
"If you have money, do not lend it out at interest,
But rather give it to one from whom you won't get it back,"
Thus helping out the poorest saves us from financial lack.
So Paul to the Corinthians 2, Chapter 8, 14,
We find abundance matched to need with charity foreseen,
"Your own abundance now should be supplying for their need,
That their abundance later will supply you your own seed.
And in this way, who gathers much will not have over-fill,
And he who gathers little will be taken care of still.
And in this way there soon will be a rich equality,
Where people help each other with great productivity."
Abundance had two ancient laws from which he had to choose,
Abundance increase for the rich or loans for those who lose.
To those who have abundance will be given even more,
From those without abundance will be taken from their store, or
Your own abundance now should be supplying for their need,
That their abundance later will supply you your own seed.
JCT: In 1984, I financed the interest-free LETS timebank
software, in 1993, my 28-table Casino Turmel was shut down
in the biggest raid in history, the O.P.P. Project Robin
Hood Raid on Casino Turmel's 28-table underground game, I
spent the million I won before it was seized as Proceeds of
Crime to found the Abolitionist Party of Canada and run for
Prime Minister which then got me invited to the United
Nations Millennium Assembly where I gave the speech on the
banking system of the new millennium resulting in the
UNILETS Millennium Declaration C6 to "restructure the global
financial architecture" with an "alternative time-based
currency." Sadly, the Millennium Declaration has now been
corrupted to delete that.
I can only point out that the only character in fiction with
my credentials, Science and Game Theory, is Mr. Spock, which
could explain my accomplishments.
I live beside the Brantford casino and invite you for coffee
to about saving the world's poor from the Pareto
Distribution.
My latest poem:
1974: TRUDEAU'S DEBT SCAM
As Canada's Debt National had much stability
Til 19 7 4 starts exponentiality.
Same in Ontario, Quebec, debt doubling time and time,
Did debts all start to grow in big coincidence sublime?
The Bank of Canada made loans to Provinces and Fed,
Without the interest that causes budgets to turn red.
It funded major projects, made St. Lawrence Seaway be,
Trans-Canada was highway built from sea to shining sea.
Not only infrastructure, even paid for World War Two,
With interest-free cash, we almost nothing couldn't do.
The only tax was for depreciation and repair,
So easily affordable without the banker's share.
But in 1974, Pierre cut the money feed:
Said "No more interest-free loans for infrastructure need.
All governments must borrow now new funds from private banks,
And raise new tax to service interest with bankers' thanks."
But worse in 1968, Pierre Trudeau'd lifted cap,
On interest from 6 percent to 60, that's the rap.
In 12 years central bank rate rose to 22 percent.
More tax to service greater debt at higher rate was spent.
Pierre Trudeau is responsible for debts out of control,
By lifting rate cap, ending infrastructure loans, his role.
Though Canada sure could have offered all a living swell,
But Pierre in 19 7 4 turned Heaven into Hell.
I'll pay my tax for army and police to handle strife,
I'll pay my tax for doctors, nurses who protect my life,
I'll pay my tax for all engaged repairing road and sewer,
I'll pay my tax for social servants helping out the poor,
I'll even pay my tax for bureaucrats with no regret,
But I object to paying tax for interest on debt.
I'll gladly pay my tax for people's time at useful toil,
But taxing me for money's time will always make me boil.
While Justin could make loans again without the usury,
Can we expect but more bad fruit from father's crooked tree.
Like dad, a prostitute to power, doing what he's told.
A follower, a Beta-boy, no Alpha leader bold.
Our taxes disappear since over 40 years ago,
For interest on Trudeau's debt we didn't have to owe.
If Mr. Spock could at computer central all alone,
Debug bad code to save a planet, skill we too may hone.
No help he needed from the lo-tech slows who could not see,
What Spock can do, The Engineer says: "Also true for me."
To get back all $2 trillion taxed since Pierre helped banks, us, fleece,
Reversing algorithm gets back $60 Grand apiece!

For full top 10 visit https://AnimeGoodys.com/top-10-psychological-anime-list/

Top 10 Psychological Anime List

Psychological anime have a beguiling aspect to them that is easy to recognize and incredibly effective in hooking a viewer when done well. With characters that are molded and developed mentally through whatever means the plot throws at them, psychological anime gives us the kind of edgy and thrilling experience that we crave, other times giving us something (a lot) to think about. Sometimes, they’re just a whole lot of fun – whatever the case may be, the versatility of the genre can’t be disputed and the creativity used to give rise to conflict in psychological anime is nothing to scoff at either. Enough talk, top 10 psychological anime is arena we’re dabbling in today – just remember that this is an updated list and the older one can be found below!

10. Kakegurui: Compulsive Gambler

Episodes: 12
Aired: July 2017 – September 2017

Hyakkou Private Academy is a prestigious school with an impeccable reputation which seems normal enough on the surface, but in reality, it is a school leading a double life. With the children of some of the richest people in the world in attendance, the school doubles as a gambling den, teaching the students in the art of manipulation and also how to handle money. Those who have more money stand at the top and transfer student Jabami Yumeko is about to get a true taste of the school’s reality; however, she’s the kind of gambler the school has never quite dealt with before, choosing rather play for the thrill of it rather than the gains.
Kakegurui is very quick to show the corruptive nature of money on any system of people and the instantaneous hierarchy the value of money elicits. However, the focus on gambling creates an intensity that even the audience feels at times while watching this and the impeccable art that goes with the high-stakes plot seems to augment it. Kakegurui is short and quite a lot of fun, but the length makes it impossible to do any real growth of characters or following any individual path in depth the way it does that of Jabami Yumeko. That being said, it isn’t a bad thing at all as it is the nature of the gamblers themselves and their effect on the characters that makes Kakegurui an enjoyable psychological show.

9. Death Parade

Episodes: 12
Aired: January 2015 – March 2015

The afterlife as it turns out is neither heaven nor hell, but a bar which is the nexus point between reincarnation and oblivion. The bar attendant takes in pairs of the deceased and challenges them to random games the results of which determine who gets to live again and who falls into the void forever. With the very premise of another chance at life at stake, the true nature of people subjected to these games leaps out as the barkeeper, Decim, decides who plays what in the purgatory-like bar known as Quindecim.
With the appearance of a certain black-haired guest to assist Decim with his judgments, Death Parade begins to visit the various considerations that come with being the arbiter of the afterlife. With each game, we are presented with a different set of human circumstances that build into psychological explorations of people’s actions when under that kind of pressure. Naturally, we get to see the dichotomy between the positive side of humanity and the negatives.

8. Subete ga F ni Naru (The Perfect Insider)

Episodes: 11
Aired: October 2015 – December 2015

Magata Shiki is a genius programmer who has lived on a hidden research facility on a remote island, away from most other people for years. She hardly ever sees guests, at least not until associate professor Saikawa Souhei and student Nishinosono Moe seek an audience with her. Unfortunately, their meeting is cut short when they are embroiled in a locked-room murder mystery. With everything happening in isolation, Saikawa and Moe must delve into Magata Shiki’s past and solve the crime themselves.
The locked-room mystery is a trope that has been used in mystery for a very long time and in various different circumstances. In The Perfect Insider, the trope is used to create tension in a dire, isolated situation in which the characters must dig deep not only to solve the murder but also to come to grips with the dark realities of their associates. With the trope setting so much into motion, The Perfect Insider’s dialogue-driven approach gives the plot the ability to rule the characters from behind while the characters themselves add to the tension through their development.

7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu (Re:Zero – Starting Life in Another World)

Episodes: 25
Aired: April 2016 – September 2016

Natsuki Subaru is a high schooler who heads out to buy a few things at a nearby convenience store. Upon stepping out again, he finds himself in the center of a marketplace in another world! Unfortunately for Subaru, it isn’t long until he is attacked by bandits and armed with nothing but groceries and a now-useless cellphone, Subaru is overcome and beaten. Luckily, a white-haired beauty called Satella bursts onto the scene and drives them away. She’s in pursuit of a thief who stole her family insignia and Subaru, feeling rather grateful decides to assist her in her search. Upon finding the criminal, things take a dark turn as both Subaru and Satella are brutally murdered. After this incident, Subaru finds himself back in the same marketplace, running into the same bandits and running into the same white-haired beauty as history inexplicably repeats itself.
Popular in the year it came out, Re:Zero did a whole lot to torture Subaru as a protagonist, but it also highlighted many of his flaws. What started out much like any gamer’s dream ended up becoming a harrowing ordeal in which Subaru is not only away from home, but also forced to navigate a violent space where magic exists and various individuals with agendas of their own add to a slew of consistently worsening circumstances.

6. Steins; Gate: 0

Episodes: 23
Aired: April 2018 – ???

After failing to rescue Makise Kurisu, Okabe Rintarou struggles to recover mentally from his ordeal and abandons his Hououin Kyouma persona in order to forget about the past. However, despite his efforts to escape his past, an acquaintance of Kurisu appears and tells him that she and her associates have begun testing a device capable of storing human memories and creating a simulation of them. Their subject? Makise Kurisu herself and, as Okabe begins testing, he is overcome by the same grief he has been trying to escape.
Set in a timeline where Kurisu is no more, the series begins its psychological onslaught on both Okabe and the viewers by bringing her back in the form of an AI, among other developments. In familiar Stein’s; Gate fashion, everything is not what it seems and we’re introduced to new characters who give a different dimension and experience of the deceased which can play with you emotionally if you’re a fan of the series. However, it isn’t all doom and gloom as it maintains its characteristic edge in certain areas and you soon come to realize the true ominous meaning of a timeline where Makise Kurisu is dead.

http://www.reddit.com/Economics/comments/h2wkw/as_food_stamp_recipients_hit_new_record_400/c1s7iw1

what the fuck is the relationship between those on government assistance and those making large capital gains?

There's a direct relationship between the top 400 (the wealth keeper) & the worker (wealth creator,) who is now often on food stamps.
This system, in my opinion is rigged (often by the wealthy influencing politics,) & is systematic robbery. For example politicians (funded by the wealthy) have forced the people to compete with third-world sweatshop laborers for wages. This rigs wages.
In contrast, look at American's ten richest people you have 5 Wal-mart heirs, 2 oil heirs, a few stock gamblers, etc. Please do not say these 400 "earned" all this money (like they had something to do with creating wealth.) Usually "stole" is more accurate.
I consider it theft when one class of people, after controlling politics to rig the economy, keeps the wealth that another class of people created.
I admit a few of these billionaires started businesses, like Steve Jobs or Bill Gates. Both have proved to be crooks: Steve Jobs tried to patent point & click, which would give him an absolute monopoly on everything in the computer industry. Bill Gates got a monopoly as a reward for incompetence - arguably from having such crappy code that stopped programs from being universal.
He's from a wealthy /privileged family, & for example (as a very young man) he bought DOS & then licensed it to IBM for $50k. Most youths don't have those type of options. (They're not in right class of people.) Bill Gates & Steve Jobs didn't actually invent anything themselves. (At least Steve Wozniak did.)
But sadly, now even Wozniak gets rich through the systematic-robbery / exploitation of capitalism.
The wealthy (& their politicians) also try to keep society in a class system by keeping inheritance untaxed. It's very clear the wealthy want to run society like royals & serfs. (Just with more propaganda.)
In the end, whether from intellectual work or physical work, it's workers who create all wealth & it's owners / non-workers who keep it. (eg, the Koch brothers, who feel they're so brilliant, based on inheriting so much money, that they're trying to take over the republican party.)
The wealthy choose our politicians, judges, etc & then rig the system. . . And for what? Their goal is a monarchy-style economy where heirs end up in charge of everything. (eg, the 5 Wal-mart heirs & 2 oil heirs in our top 10.) As time goes by, this will only get worse:
Every business you love will eventually be inherited & ruled undemocratically by economic-royalty.
Here's an example, of how wealth got so divided. I remember when off-shoring started & the Gap (or a similar store) was selling a shirt for about $40, which was made by a child making a few pennies a day. The wealthy were not forced to do this by the consumer, but they choose this situation for greed & profits. They profited from the exploitation of children & generally exploited people, & still do. Capitalism has transformed into a parasitic & tyrannical economic system, which (in general) is undemocratically ruled by the worst of humanity.

Top 10 Richest Gamblers in the World – Net Worth, Ups & Downs

top 10 richest gamblers in the world

top 10 richest gamblers in the world - win

How luck plays an important role in the stock market (GME and others)

The story of an Ex-Butter

Subreddit Stats: wikipedia posts from 2019-11-01 to 2020-01-13 07:06 PDT

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Jordan Peterson: Matthew Principle & Pareto Distributions

Top 10 Psychological Anime List

Top 10 Psychological Anime List

10. Kakegurui: Compulsive Gambler

9. Death Parade

8. Subete ga F ni Naru (The Perfect Insider)

7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu (Re:Zero – Starting Life in Another World)

6. Steins; Gate: 0

In r/economics (mostly "free market" cult members,) I posted an explanation of socialism. (Please share your suggestions or criticism.)

top 10 richest gamblers in the world video

top 10 richest gamblers in the world top